Better MLB Career - Homer Bailey or Luke Hochevar
by Wilbur Wood on May 10, 2009 8:37 PM EDT
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PrintTwo once elite prospects who have had a bump or two in their ascent to MLB success. Hochevar, GB machine, has been tremendously consistent at AAA this year. Hoch was very hittable in his early MLB stints.
Homer Bailey, once the top SP prospect in the game. Some say a thrower and not a pitcher. Has had flashes of brilliance at AAA this year and was good in the spring but still he has been a bit inconsistent.
Who do folks think will have a better MLB career and why?
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Hochevar by a mile
Bailey doesn’t have any passion for the game and doesn’t listen to coaches. Hochevar has a chance to be a #3 starter, while Bailey is going to burnout in AAA.
Does "passion for the game" matter at all?
Jeff Kent is a borderline HOFer and he has been outspoken in the past about not really liking the sport very much.
by thejd44 on May 10, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
It matters
Regardless of what Jeff Kent says, he played the game very hard. Its hard to quantify and I really have no idea how it relates to Hochevar or Bailey, but it matters a lot.
Two different things.
I know I’ve busted my ass at jobs I absolutely hated just because that’s the way I am. Passion for the game and work ethic are not the same. I think what Bravesin07 really wants to criticize is Bailey’s work ethic (right or wrong, who knows). As you say, Kent took his job seriously and worked at his craft.
So then the next question: If Bailey’s work ethic is a problem, why? Some guys just don’t have it, and others don’t have it in certain environments. Could Bailey be a change of scenery case?
by thejd44 on May 12, 2009 4:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Hochevar...
and the only people who considered Bailey the top SP prospect in baseball were vastly overrating him.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
next poll should be who will have a better career Phil Hughes or Homer Bailey
I think Hughes is the next Paul Wilson
and his mechanics suck.
Go Rangers...don't suck...
by Kinslerhomer on May 10, 2009 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Im a little suprised its not closer
I voted Hochevar… big Hochevar fanboy. I think he’s going to be very, very good… Groundball machine w/ good amount of Ks.
At their best, I think Bailey’s best is better than Hochevar’s… and I would certainly concede Bailey’s ceiling is higher. BUT… I think the comments above sum up pretty well what I find lacking in Bailey. Attitude, Mechanics, Consistency… and I would add Great American Ballpark and Dusty Baker.
Ground Ball Machine?
When did this tagline get attached to him? This isn’t the first time I’ve read it, which is why I had to go look up the numbers. He clearly wasn’t a GB machine when drafted, and the 40-43% rates in 06 and most of 07 back that up. He had a short stint in the bigs at the end of 07 and started to induce GB’s, albeit over a 12 inn sample. Then he improved to 53% last year, which is solid. Now he’s 63% in the minors, again, over a small sample. Has he changed his approach? Any insight?
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on May 11, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Bailey could be Burnett
I’ve always liked A.J. Burnett as a comp for Bailey, and still see no reason why it couldn’t come true. Hopefully with less health woes for Bailey. I don’t see that upside in Hochevar.
Erm
Aren’t the health woes a big part of the comp?
Not necessarily
Similarly built righthander with power arsenal and widely reported makeup issues, who takes a little time to put it together. Walk issues in the minors, strikeout rates that take time to translate to the major league level.
With his mechanics
Aren’t the health problems a big possibility?
by David Tokarz on May 12, 2009 3:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Sure
But health problems are a big possibility for any pitcher, and there are plenty of guys with awkward mechanics that most of us would take over either of these guys.
Also, again, I see a low enough upside on Hochevar that I would rather gamble on Bailey’s upside, along with the risk that entails.
Hochevar's got a low upside compared to Bailey?
When Homer hasn’t done anything of note since ’07? And right now has the same WHIP he did last year: 1.47. Ugly.
Right now Bailey looks like a reliever to me, while Hochevar looks like a solid innings eating groundball type.
One man's opinion
I’m not ignoring Bailey’s poor recent performance. I think he has a much greater chance of failing completely than Hochevar. I just think Bailey has a much better chance of being a 2-3 starter, and I don’t like Hochevar’s upside or probability or upside quite enough for me to prefer him. I’d love to have either guy on my team, and I’m not 100% confident in either guy. Like I said, one man’s opinion.
Hochevar
If for no other reason than the fact that if Bailey is lucky enough to pull it together and become a really solid major league pitcher, Dusty will promptly proceed to rip his arm off and beat him over the head for it for not being able to throw 200 pitches a game like they could in the good old days when Moxy was the drink of choice.
Good question
Probably have to go with Hochevar. The draft-related layoff set him back for a while, I think, along with some “interesting” development decisions by the Royals. Now that he’s gotten some time to stabilize, we’re starting to see the real Hochevar . . .which looks like a solid innings-eater who throws tons of strikes.
Bailey was NEVER the top SP prospect in the game. I think at one point he might’ve made my top 5. Really good fastball, everything else was consistently inconsistent. Profile is very similar to that of a certain other ballyhooed prospect currently going through his own adjustment woes in Oklahoma City . . .
Not especially.
I think he’s a good prospect, great arm. But I don’t think he’s one of the very best pitching prospects in the game right now, and he wasn’t one last year. He has a fastball that would grade out well against MLB hitters, but what else does he bring to the table? It’s not just that his game is lacking in polish (which wouldn’t be a terrible thing really given his age). . .I don’t really see what you can project for him, either. Actually, Bailey at the same age had the makings of better secondary pitches than Feliz, and the fastball command was comparable.
I see Feliz as a 3 given present projection, with the note that the projection is exceptionally fluid given his age. I could see him projecting better out of the pen, which would play up his strengths and cover his flaws.
And . . .just to clarify. I don’t hate on Rangers pitching prospects – there’s a few I really like. I was a bit skeptical of Holland being able to maintain his stuff this year, but he looks good. Lefties with plus-plus velocity, a good secondary pitch and the willingness to attack the strike zone are a lovely thing. Also a fan of Blake Beavan – I know there’s some folks who like him better out of the pen, but again, fills the zone with solid stuff and enough secondary stuff to be a very nice player in some capacity.
Bailey
this would assume both have a MLB “career”. If both have a career, Bailey has the higher ceiling. Funny how everyone has given up on him. Great buy low time.
Sure... but lets not forget that both these guys are great buy low candidates
Hochevar was the 1st overall pick, twice a first round pick and much more highly regarded as an amateur than Bailey.
The Royals kind of screwed with him, but he’s actually the guy with the better pedigree got excited for when he was drafted, then gave up on when his minor league numbers werent great (the Royals wouldnt let him throw his out pitch IIRC, same as Porcello), then got excited for when he came up last year, then everybody jumped ship again when he didnt immediately dominate. Luke Hochevar is the prototypical buy low candidate. He has the chance to be a very, very good pitcher and his floor isnt bad at all. He’s still underhyped because he doesnt fit the strikeout machine mold that the fantasy crowd wants.
For what it's worth, Hochevar got ROCKED tonight in Oakland
8 runs in 2 innings. All 8 were earned, including an absolute bomb served up to Jack Cust on a hanging breaking ball. But that wasn’t his worst pitch. The worst might have been an 0-2 BP fastball right down the middle to Holliday. It only resulted in a single up the middle, but it was pretty indicative of the entire short outing. He just didn’t look good at all tonight.
by thejd44 on May 12, 2009 11:15 PM EDT reply actions
Bailey is quite an interesting case
i agree with those that think he was overrated as one of the top pitching prospects int the game, but i think he’s actually underrated now by many. he likely wont become the lights-out ace of the staff some Reds fans (myself included) once envisioned, but AJ Burnett is pretty good ceiling comp in my estimation.
the Reds have screwed with Homer so much over the past few years, and i think the majority of his woes can be contributed to that. they took away his 4-seamer (or was it his 2-seamer? i can never remember which was which) and that led to a precipitous drop in velocity. then they took away his curveball too, and did a complete overhaul on his mechanics. and he was rushed to the majors back in ‘07, and he battled a knee injury for much of ’08. so he’s had a number of things not go his way. then late last season they basically went back to square one and gave him his pitches back and told him to go to it. and he destroyed Durham in the AAA playoffs.
and i totally buy into the “uncoachable” argument too, at least until this year. he came to Spring Training fighting for the 5th spot in the rotation and was dominant. Owings was too though, so Homer lost out. but the big story every beat writer was talking about was how much Bailey had changed since the previous spring. he was much more mature and poised. Hal McCoy said something to the effect of Bailey aging 10 years since the previous spring. so i still have hope for him.
go look that up in your Funk and Wagnalls
by Charlie Scrabbles on May 14, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions
heh
“the Reds have screwed with Homer so much over the past few years, and i think the majority of his woes can be contributed to that. they took away his 4-seamer (or was it his 2-seamer? i can never remember which was which) and that led to a precipitous drop in velocity. then they took away his curveball too, and did a complete overhaul on his mechanics. and he was rushed to the majors back in ‘07, and he battled a knee injury for much of ’08. so he’s had a number of things not go his way. then late last season they basically went back to square one and gave him his pitches back and told him to go to it.”
And for all this, he gets the “uncoachable” label.
Some teams really do get what they deserve.
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