Neftali and Elvis Make Haste
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 7, 2009 9:39 PM EDT
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PrintNo, that's not the name of a lowbrow comedy. It's in reference to the fact that the Rangers are being ridiculously aggressive with two of their top prospects, Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus. Andrus has been named for some time now as the Rangers starting SS this year, but after learning that Neftali Feliz was being assigned to AAA to start the year, my jaw sort of dropped. What are the Rangers thinking? They had no real reason to do this, except to rush Feliz and Andrus to the majors.
Let's look into why they did it, and how the two will adjust.
The Rangers' current situation
Let's start with Andrus. He's arguably the team's second best positional prospect, as we all know. And, as we all also know, the Rangers are making him their everyday MLB shortstop this year. It's not like the team needed to do it- they specifically moved Michael Young off of the position in order to pave the way for Andrus. Even if they had just wanted to move Young to third base, let's face it: Texas isn't planning on contending this year, and they have other passable stopgaps at SS (Omar Vizquel and Joaquin Arias would have been a serviceable platoon).
Andrus joins a lineup that is already very young, remember, so there may be a thought that he'll develop better alongside fellow prospects such as Chris Davis, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Taylor Teagarden. But, again, this isn't a team that is planning on contending this year, or even next year.
On the pitching staff, as most of us know, the Rangers need quite a bit of help. They're still depending heavily on two largely ineffective starters (Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla) and could desperately use a homegrown pitcher. That being said, a team in this position should be extremely cautious with its starting pitching prospects. Texas has a couple guys with very high ceilings in Feliz and Derek Holland, but the remainder of the organization's SP prospects are in the low minors.
This is an organization that, if it effectively maximizes its window, probably shouldn't plan to really contend until 2011 or 2012. There is a good mix of guys in the high- and low-minors, but as we all know, the very best of the Rangers' prospects (Feliz, Justin Smoak, Martin Perez) are a year away at best, and the guys who are closer than that (Julio Borbon, Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden) are complementary pieces.
The implications of promoting Andrus
To me, this makes the lesser sense of the two moves I'm about to discuss. Andrus, as a 19 year old last year, had a .715 OPS at AA. No matter which way you slice it, that's just not good. While he is an exceptional fielder, Andrus- at this point in his career, at least- has neither the plate discipline nor the power to succeed at the major league level. In addition, while some are touting him as future leadoff prospect, I just don't see it- unless he completely reworks his approach. And, to rework an entire approach... that's something best left to time in AAA.
After his glove, the next biggest plus in Andrus' game is his speed. And, after he stole 54 bases last season, rightfully so. However, Andrus was already having problems reading potential steal opportunities in AA. He was caught 16 times (about 22%) at Frisco, and that number is only going to go up now that he's in the majors. He will, at the very least, be a potential liability on the basepaths. At worst, he will cost the Rangers a significant amount of runs with his poor reads.
Now, up to this point, I haven't even mentioned how Andrus' .715 OPS (at AA, mind you) will translate to the major leagues. People have made excuses for him in the past ("but he's only 19!"), but major league pitchers aren't going to go easy on you because you're young. Andrus' MLE last season was a .271/.314/.335 line, with a 43/20 SB/CS. That's okay for a 19 year old in AA, I guess, but the Rangers are now risking stagnating his development, which could potentially turn that sort of line into Andrus' ceiling. For a guy with so much left to improve on his game, not the least of which is his entire approach at the plate, promoting him to the majors now is just indefensible.
There is literally only one positive that I can think of to come from an Andrus promotion. When Texas finally is ready to contend, he will long since have been accustomed to an MLB spotlight. That's it; that's all the positive I can take away from the promotion.
The implications of promoting Feliz
I guess that the Feliz promotion (to AAA) is slightly more defensible than Andrus' promotion to the majors. Just slightly, though... Feliz is still far more raw than a lot of people are realizing. Yes, he has arguably the highest ceiling among all pitching prospects, and I'm not going to try and say that he's not a great prospect. He just is sort of far away from being able to contribute effectively at the major league level, IMO.
Why? Well, that explanation begins and ends with his command. Look at his BB% at each of the 5 levels he's pitched at. There are admittedly small sample sizes at play here, but still: 11.9%, 11.2%, 16.9%, 8.6%, and 12.4%. One of these things is not like the other. Indeed, Feliz looked to have taken a huge step in his command early last season at single-A Clinton. Then, the Rangers decided to have him skip high-A, and the result was a huge step backwards in his command at AA.
Next, consider his ability to go deep into games. This is a less important issue, because of the way teams monitor pitch counts and innings. However, the fact remains that, in 2008, Feliz averaged only 4.72 innings in 27 starts. His career IP/G is 3.68. There is no other way to explain this than to say that Feliz has very little experience going even 5 innings in a start, so there is no way to know how his stats will extrapolate over a full season's workload. Again, this is not say that he can't handle it, or that it's his fault that he was being pulled- it's just that we have no way of knowing how he'll perform when (further) stretched out.
The Rangers' answer to these issues? A promotion to AAA, of course! Instead of letting him repeat AA and trying to figure out what sort of pitcher they have here, Texas further pushed a 20-year old top prospect that already showed signs of regressing with previous promotions. How is this in any way a good idea? It's not like they need him this or next year, as I've already established. Consider that now with this promotion to AAA, the team is going to face a huge amount of pressure to promote him to the majors in early 2010, something Feliz will almost positively not be ready for. This is an organization that could have afforded to wait to see what they had.
Forecasting what'll happen here
In my opinion, both Andrus and Feliz have very, very high risks of falling on their faces this year. Unless they're secretly grooming him as a closer, Feliz has no business on a AAA roster yet. I'd predict a very underwhelming season from Feliz, maybe something like Radhames Liz's stat line at AA in 2007 (161/70 K/BB in 137 INN, 3.61 ERA). That's not bad, necessarily; it's just not elite, like the hype that Feliz is getting now. It should be noted, though, that his K/9 will likely drop as he begins to go deeper into games.
I think that Andrus will perform at about the exact level of his MLE from last season. Anything over a .700 OPS from him, and I'll be surprised. Over a .720 OPS, and I'll be stunned. That being said, I don't think Andrus will be in the majors by the All-Star break. I have to assume that the Rangers will realize by that point that they've made a mistake, and will let the young SS finish developing in AAA.
What do you guys think? I know there are an obscene amount of Rangers fans on this board, so I want to hear what you guys have to say, since I'm obviously not an authoritative source on Texas' system.
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-I dont understand the Andrus move. If defense is a priority and you dont care about the bat then just play Vizquel or sign Adam Everett, etc… His bat just isnt ready and also I dont understand how you can sign Michael Young to a big extension and then a year later decide its so important to move him that you have to bring up a kid who isnt ready… or vice versa. I would have moved him before this, mind you… but I still dont get the thought process here.
-On Feliz… I have no problem with how he has been handled. I would probably go slower, but I dont have a problem with challenging an elite talent a little.
I dont think either move is going to blow up in their face or anything, though. Andrus will struggle with the bat, but his glove is ready. I dont really see it hampering his development all that much… Im not a huge fan of his bat to begin with though. Feliz just has such great stuff… hard to see him failing.
Heh
let’s face it: Texas isn’t planning on contending this year
Tell that to the team.
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
As an A's fan I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rangers sneak up on some people this season.
Nobody is going to run away with the AL West so there’s no sense in counting the Rangers (and all their young talent) out in the first week of the season.
RSF
Some sites for you to visit and get up to speed on the Rangers.
http://www.bbtia.com/home/
http://www.lonestarball.com/
http://newbergreport.com/
http://minormoosings.blogspot.com/
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
I've got a very simple solution to this thread
They are trying to contend in 2010. I don’t see how you can make such a detailed post about how they are pushing all their close prospects and state multiple times they arn’t contending in 2010.
If feliz struggles in AAA they will keep him there all year (and he would have been in AAA at some point anyway this year), but if he meets the challenge and succeeds they may let him get his feet wet as a reliever late in the season and hopefully get him prepared to have a better shot at success for 2010 a MLB starter. Can you explain to me why half a season in AA vs half a season in AAA is going to derail Neftali Feliz? This isn’t porcello here.
Is there a lot of research saying bringing up players early really kills their development? I think the true detriment would be the loss of service time/control while the player isn’t at his maximum effectiveness. But why should it stop him from developing as a hitter? He may look terrible doing it but hes a confident kid, he can take it. Sure some guys who get looks at a young age fail and never really get back, but plenty of prospects fall off in the minors too.
So.. uh.. 2010.
the preceding post was a great success.
liability on the basepaths
puhleaze……
That said, the Andrus move is risky for sure, and it may not work out. Feliz in AAA — I honestly do not see how that is going to be a potential ruin to his career, come on now.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
feliz
The andrus promotion is overly aggressive in my mind, but not feliz to AAA. I don’t see how that’ll hurt him much. Holland seems a bit more ready for it though.
+1
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by OldProspects on Apr 8, 2009 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I know the word is that theyre going to bring up Holland and Feliz as relievers...
Im usually in favor of that… BUT if theyre competitive – and with the many, many injuries to the pitching in Oakland and LA they should be – what are the chances theyre going to stick with dregs like Scott Feldman and Kris Benson when Holland is destroying AAA?
The Red Sox preached a ton about breaking in rookie starters in the pen a few years back… Exigent circumstances usually prevent it. Papelbon they did it with and Masterson too (He will be a starter). Jon Lester and Michael Bowden not so much…
As Orioles faithful...
I can say with full certainty that rushing your prospects ruins their development. The O’s have managed to do this time and time again. First, it was Haydenn Penn. Then, it was Jeff Fiorentino. Then, it was Radhames Liz. Then Daniel Cabrera. All of them had shown tons of promise in minor league stints; so the Orioles aggresively promoted them. Of those four, 4 are still having issues with stuff that should be solved in the minors. Penn’s got control and durability issues. Cabrera’s got some of the worst control I’ve ever seen. That is, with the exception of Liz, whose mechanical issues (such as his follow through being completely atrocious) Fio just got released by the REDS organization; they have Jerry Hairston as a starting left fielder. And they couldn’t keep even Fiorentino. All of these pre Orioles Magic players were rushed; and now they have paid the consequences, and have had fine possible baseball careers derailed by bad management.
And logistically, the theory that a big jump can ruin development, and subsequently a career, isn’t far-fetched. If a player is jumped to the big leagues from the minors (whose purpose is to teach a player to play), without having been properly taught, the experienced major leaguers will tear him, and his inexperience, apart. It just makes sense
Orioles...
I think it has very little to do with rushing players. I just think the Orioles are pretty bad at developing players. Rushing Markakis doesn’t seem to have hurt him. He is one of the best RF in the game and looks like a perennial 300/400/500 hitter.
Andrus played a full season at AA. Many, many organizations skip their good players past AAA. The Braves do it, the Athletics do it, the Astros do it. There was nothing wrong with the Rangers doing it. Andrus made steady progression up the minor league ladder. He completed his AA transition last year, and now he is in the majors.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
I agree on your point below about OPS but disagree on Andrus
I think there is very good reason to let him get some more seasoning in the minors. In 2008, he struck out in nearly 20 % of his PAs, posted a career high contact rate but in a hitter’s league, had a k/BB ratio of almost 3/1, and showed very little power(some of the 2B are probably a result of his speed). On the positive end, he did post career high contact rates, had a SB success rate of over 70 %, projects as a potential above-average SS, and is only 20 years old.
Andrus is very young and most of his future value lies in his defensive ability and the rate he gets on base. Right now, there is little evidence to how much more upside he has in the power department, but numbers give little indication of pending growth. He is only 20 this year, it would be better if Andrus learned to take a few more walks and reduce his strikeouts in AAA while refining his defense. Plus he could see if he can work on his power hitting ability in an environment where he is not under pressure to make contact against the best pitchers in the world. He could develop a lot of bad habits trying to hit marginally well in the MLB this year.
Also, on Markakis, I know your trying to use him as a reason for why skipping AA is not harmful to development. However, I would avoid mentioning them together for Markakis was a refined offensively and defensively, was older, was successful at every lvl, and was a college player. Andrus is none of the above really. Andrus is arguably a lesser prospect than Jose Lopez was back in his age 20 season when he was pushed to the majors, and look how that turned out early on. Not saying Andrus=Lopez but there are reasons not to push him.
by tdot mariner fan on Apr 8, 2009 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I think...
that you’re placing too much emphasis on WHAT the teams do, and not why they do it. Teams skip their players some levels if they believe that those players have learned all they will be able to learn at that level, for instance with Markakis. And as players like Markakis, this process has proved to be pretty successful, as the players were refined to begin with and did not really need that level of learning. If a player went to a full 4 years of college, for instance, you can expect him to be more refined than some hot shot high schooler, and so he may be skipped through a few levels.
But with players who clearly have some steep learning to do, like Andrus, bringing them to the majors is just the worst thing to go. Once the ML pitchers discover how unrefined and inexperienced they are, let’s say with hitting breaking balls, they’ll just throw breaking ball after breaking ball. And the players will struggle. If they have a problem with a slow swing, they’ll throw balls 96, 97 MPH, and these inexperienced won’t be able to hit them. Then (oftentimes), because of their immaturity, they lose confidence and become too passive or too aggressive (which is the worst thing that can happen to a ballplayer). If they’re a pitcher, they pitch to avoid contact. If they’re a hitter, they swing a power-swing at every pitch. This becomes a vicious cycle, one that these players very often do not come out of. This is what happened to someone like Fiorentino, anybody will tell you.
So what’s the problem with leaving a young guy like Andrus down there for a few months at least, to learn the game? With that pitching rotation, the Rangers clearly aren’t in a position to be hurt by his absence. Then, with the September rush, you bring him up and see how he can hit in the playoff race, see how he hits vs. teams like the Angels who might be struggling to hold first place. You stand a lot more to lose than you do to win by keeping him in the majors.
by maneatingbaby on Apr 8, 2009 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Stopped reading it...
I’m sorry, but you lose all credibility when you try to paint every player with the OPS brush. Doing that is just as ludicrous as only using ERA or Wins to judge pitchers. It completely disregards parts of a players’ game, and tries to put all hitters into the Old Player Skills box. Walks and Homers, that’s all that matters to OPS. While we are at this new “everyone who has an OPS under 800 sucks” movement, why don’t we go through and remove everyone from the HOF who has an OPS under 800. One of the greatest shortstops ever, and certainly of the past generation only had a career 665 OPS, but he also had 580 stolen bases. Who’s to say that Andrus is not on the same career path as Ozzie Smith?
Or would you rather have a defensive liability at SS. Or someone like Vizquel or Everett who will onlbarey hit as well as Andrus, but won’t be the threat on the basepaths that Andrus is (and 22% CS is not bad).
Andrus will be fine. Quit trying to play armchair GM when you have never once even spoken to the player, his teammates, or the Ranger coaches.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
It's short-hand
and frankly a pretty decent way to show a person’s hitting abilities. You’re right that Andrus is a strong defensive player, and significantly better than the Rangers’ alternatives, but that doesn’t expiate the issue that he’s simply not yet a very strong offensive player, even if he might become one. Why not give him another year or two in the minors to improve his abilities before starting his contract clock?
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by OldProspects on Apr 8, 2009 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
What does he need to improve?
The only thing that can be improved on in his game is his BB/K ratio, which while not great, wasn’t bad. He was a 350+ OBP player in the minors, that is fine for a lead-off hitter in the pros. He is not a HR hitter, so did you want him to work on that? Andrus’ game is putting the ball in play and then using his speed to move from base to base. As long as he can keep his OBP above 340 and his CS to 20% or less, then he is doing just fine as a hitter. That’s his job.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
And what would Vizquel do?
220/280/300? I am quite sure that Andrus can do much better than that, plus give you speed on the basepaths.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
I'm not saying that Vizquel is better than Andrus
But why would you assume that a guy who had a .350 OBP in AA with the help of a .365 BABIP will have an OBP above .340 in the majors the following year? Realistically, in the short term, an OBP above .320 is optimistic, so the Rangers don’t seem to have any SS options that will be really helpful. Their choice, in other words, is between a very bad hitting SS and a bad hitting SS who should become good, and will now be more expensive when he does
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by OldProspects on Apr 8, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Right
and if youre desperate enough to have to call up a 20 year old kid who isnt ready then youre certainly desperate enough to have signed another option or made a trade, or hell, kept Michael Young there. That is, if you felt SS was such a problem I dont see how you came around to the solution of calling up Andrus. There are at least three options I would go with before that – all of them less harmful to the long term health of my team.
Its not a terrible move, like keeping Jeter at SS, but its far from a good idea.
I dont imagine there would be much difference between Andrus and Vizquel with the bat in 09
That line above is probably a decent approximation of Andrus, too. There really isnt much reason to think one can outhit the other in 2009. Lets look at Andrus’s projections for 2009. PECOTA has him at .248/.301/.334. His 90th percentile is .335 OBP. .330 OBP is league average, btw. So a >.340 projection is pretty aggressive.
In the meantime, youre slightly hampering his development and losing a year of control during his prime… when, as you note, there is already a very similar option on the roster.
Speed on the basepaths doesnt really change the equation for me. Lets say Andrus steals 30 with 6 CS… well, first off, Vizquel can still steal bases too. His last five years = 19, 24, 24, 14, 5 (SSS- 266 ABs). A handful of steals really means nothing in terms of their value.
Pecota...
I love projections as much as the next guy, but I don’t take them as the word of Lincecum. Projections are just that, projections. Players over and under perform compared to their projections all the time. And I think the difference between Vizquel and Andrus will be quite large. Look at Vizquel’s numbers and you will see that he has been going downhill fast. Shit, even if Andrus hit that exact Pecota projection, he would be a much more valuable player than Vizquel who has become an absolute liability in the batting order.
I actually think Andrus will put up something like a 260/320/350 line this year. But his batting average may be higher if he uses his speed correctly and just tries to put the ball in play and then beat the throw to 1B. Sort of like Ichiro and Gathright and the old Castillo/Pierre combo that Florida once had.
Also, anyone ever think that they brought up Andrus this year BECAUSE they have Vizquel around. Considering the type of player Andrus profiles to become, is there a better mentor for him than Vizquel? Everyone is concentrating on the negatives of bringing him, completely ignoring the possible positives. Apprenticeship under Vizquel, showing confidence in him, pushing him to improve instead of just beating out singles against weaker AAA fielders, letting him become a better player now, so he is already adjusted to the majors when they likely try to go for the gold next year.
I also am of the opinion that the Rangers do have a decent shot at the AL West title this year. The whole division looks like it could be pretty bad with the injuries (LAA), unproven commodities (OAK), and general lack of offense (SEA) that teams have. Texas has their own weakness in a severe lack of quality SPs, but that could change in the next three months. And their offense is so good that it can help them win a bunch of 10-7 games.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
yes
I’m hoping for improvement from Andrus from month to month with both bat and glove. If this works, he’ll be a steady contributor in 2010 when the team is primed to contend. If it doesn’t…
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
if it doesn't...
there’s still not a whole lot of downside, IMO. I dont really see him getting too far off track, even if he hits .220/.290/330. Didnt kill Carlos Gomez.
OTOH, I dont see much chance of this working out “well” either, at least in terms of 09 production.
Again, you’re just assuming that all his minor league statistics are going to translate directly.
His ceiling at this point is nothing more than #8 hitter, if he develops plate discipline. Otherwise, he’s a #9 hitter on a bad team, or Pokey Reese on a good one.
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 8, 2009 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
On second thought
“#9 hitter on a bad team” and “Pokey Reese” are the same things.
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 8, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Ceiling...
Players do hit .300 with a .350 OBP as very good #2 hitters. He has all the skills necessary to be a Placido Polanco with speed and more walks with slightly more strikeouts. Being a #8 hitter is not his ceiling.
I'll make this wager with you...
If Andrus gets sent down this year for lack of performance or does not have at least a 310 OBP this year, I will change my signature on this board to “RedSoxFaithful knows baseball better than me, and I bow to his immense greatness.” and keep it that way until the start of the 2010 season… but if he does stay up all year and keep his OBP over 310, you have to put the same thing in your signature but with “Boxkutter” listed.
Sound like a friendly wager you may be interested in?
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Here's the thing, though
We’re not arguing over the same thing. I don’t think he’ll have an OBP under .310, nor do I think he’ll be sent down (though I think he should be).
All I am saying is that what he currently brings to the table is negative value, and that he would be better off finishing his development in AAA.
.260/.320/.350 seems about right. The only other over/under number I placed on his production as any point in this thread was a .700 OPS.
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 9, 2009 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions
That being said
.240/.280/.330 would not surprise me.
There’s no real way of knowing how his BB% will translate from AA to the MLB, but it will almost positively be a poor translation.
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 9, 2009 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions
You're not making any sense, though
First of all, I did look at other parts of Andrus’ game. 22% CS is not that bad, no, but it is at AA, when his MLE translates to a 32% CS. And I acknowledged that his fielding is great, but the team has Vizquel if they need an above average defensive SS that can’t hit.
Second of all, a few points about my use of OPS: I didn’t use it as an all-purpose tool here, just as one indicator. And in the realm of hitting, OPS is a fantastic indicator of ability. Saying that “walks and homers” are “all that matters to OPS” is grossly ignorant. They’re two big parts of it, sure, but they’re also two pretty valuable traits. Just like hitting for average is part of it, and a pretty valuable trait. Andrus does that well, but not well enough to overlook the fact that he is piss poor at taking walks and hitting for ANY sort of power (never mind just home runs).
Next, you cite Ozzie Smith. He was one of the greatest shortstops ever. Nobody will deny this. But it wasn’t because of his bat, so why cite his .665 OPS? Yes, he had 580 stolen bases. You’re forgetting something, though- Ozzie Smith was the single best defensive SS of all-time, and one of the single best base stealers of all-time.
Andrus is good defensively, but he’s not that good, nor has anyone in the history of “people talking about Elvis Andrus” ever tried to argue that. And in terms of base stealing, well, I’ve already made that point. Don’t expect the 22% to translate favorably to the majors.
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 8, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions
OPS...
You say that me stating that OPS is all walks and homers is grossly ignorant, but that is mostly what OPS is. That’s how a player like Adam Dunn gets a 900 career OPS. All he does is hit homers and walk. He has only hit over 30 doubles twice in his career, and is also a career 247 hitter. He is also one of the worst defensive players in baseball. But because he can hit HR and take walks, he is one of the best players in baseball by the OPS standard.
You may not use OPS as an all-purpose tool, but that is the only hitting tool you mentioned.
I agree that a 32% CS isn’t good. But that was also only an MLE. I think MLEs are fine, but they completely disregard the chance for a player’s improvement from year to year. Just because his MLE last year was 32% does not mean he is going to get caught that often this year.
Andrus is only 20 years old right now, this is the time of his life when he will likely make the most significant improvements to his game. I see nothing wrong with challenging the kid. As I said, his BB/K ratio wasn’t fantastic, or even good, but it’s not horrible either. He’s not JP Arrencibia or Greg Halman or something. He can take walks. But instead, like Ichiro, he puts the bat on the ball and uses his speed to get on base. If he was having significant BB/K issues, then I would agree that putting him in AAA this year would be the move I would make, but I think doing that with where his game currently is… only for the sake of trying to get him to take more walks, could have a negative effect. It could cause him to lose aggression at the plate or to doubt himself and not swing enough. A hit is either just as valuable as a walk (if the bases are empty) or more valuable (when there are runners on already). I don’t see why you want a player to walk instead of putting the ball in play for a hit. As long as his strikezone judgement is fine, then there is nothing wrong.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
The advantage of a walk over simply hitting the ball
While a false choice (because obviously you don’t want to swing at a pitch that would give you a walk) is that it’s a guaranteed man on base while simply putting the ball in play is much less likely to succeed.
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by OldProspects on Apr 8, 2009 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see why you want a player to walk instead of putting the ball in play for a hit.
I don’t see why you would want a player to get a single instead of hitting a home run. Therefore, all players should swing as hard as they can at every single pitch.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
tell me...
that that comment was sarcastic. if not, then no offense, but i’m pencilling you down for having the stupidest comment of this month. if a player swings for the fences on every pitch that comes near him, he will, and i can say this without .01% of doubt in mind, fail in the major leagues.
especially a guy like Andrus, who likely won’t reach the fences.
swing to make contact. but don’t swing if you don’t have to. players who have their hit balls fall in for base hits 1/3 (!) of the time are considered lucky, and probable to regress. having a good contact rate is good. having a good walk rate is better.
why take a 1/3 chance of getting on base and setting the table (EXACTLY what a leadoff man should be doing) when you can instead get walked? That’s a 100% chance of helping!
PaulThomas, follow this comment with a “I was joking” or i will be forced to kill myself the day any even non pro team hires you as an instructor
by maneatingbaby on Apr 8, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
You should probably consider killing yourself anyway
since you thought it possible that comment was not sarcastic
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Apr 8, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
oh good call.
PaulThomas, I (gracefully, I hope) apologize for being a dumbass and misreading what you wrote.
by maneatingbaby on Apr 8, 2009 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
I don’t really think it is a reductio ad absurdum. He doesn’t challenge the premise that a single is superior to a walk and instead makes an argument about swinging for HRs.
Because the choice isn't between a single and a walk
The choice is between a swing and not a swing. On a pitch on which one could get a walk, I have no idea why you would rather a hitter swing at a bad pitch and probably either miss or get an out, rather than take a walk.
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Apr 17, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Ozzie Smith
Wasn’t he so valuable because of his great defensive prowess, or am i totally off here?
i see your point though. this is why i like the application of sabermetrics in recent years. old school guys disagree with me, but i think stats can tell you 70-80% of a player’s skills sans outside variables (playing time, park effects, line-up placement)
by maneatingbaby on Apr 8, 2009 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
This is totally off track from the purpose of this post
But … is it just me, or does there seem to be a lot more aggressive teams than before? I guess … my gut feeling is that Andrus is the right move, but I would’ve slowplayed Feliz, but that’s me. So there, made it somewhat relevant.
I know certian teams in the past were always more aggressive (Mariners), but I just took a quick skim and it seems like kids are getting pushed to start the year. Maybe part of it is colored by the Cubs actions (being that I am a Cubs fan). But the Cubs pushed top shortstop prospect Starlin Castro from XST/AZL last year to Daytona in High A. They have Jay Jackson and Casey Coleman in AA. Brandon Guyer is in AA. Dan McDaniel jumped to Daytona (and is reportedly going to get a chance to start, which excites me). Oddly, two of the Cubs more intriguing prospects are being slowplayed (Vitters/Flaherty both going to Low A to start).
Maybe this is worthy of its own post … but I’d be curious to see who people thought were being pushed at the start of the year (don’t want to use the word rush, as that connotates a mistake of sorts and time is the only judge of that).
btw, excellent diary
even if people disagree, the fact that we have something to discuss outside of the fantasy stuff. It’s a fair discussion to have, no matter what side of the discussion you come down on.
im thinking...
that this redsoxfaithful guy has added something to the site that has been missing for awhile: the chance for actual discussion.
i applaud you, fine sir
by maneatingbaby on Apr 8, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
That’s much appreciated.
I want to have actual, interesting prospect conversations, and that’s something we haven’t had for a while (because of lists and fantasy). So, I’m trying to bring up some interesting, discussion-provoking topics.
I’ve been working for a few days now on a post about the development of closers, but it doesn’t feel right. I’m dealing with far too small a sample size, and therefore am unable to make broad conclusions. :-(
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 8, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Economy...
I wonder how much of this has to do with the economy? To me it has always seemed obvious that paying $400K to a million for a 1st to 3rd year guy always seemed smarter than shelling out 3 or 4 million for a veteran who would give you the same production. I think Oakland really started the recent trend of staying young, and now other teams are starting to copy it and expand on it. Florida is another team who is pretty good about staying young. Unfortunately, I think both of those teams do it too much, and they don’t give the team a chance to mature cause they are always looking to turn over the roster, but anyways….
With the trend being to sign these young players to mutually beneficial contracts early, in order to give the player more money quickly, and save the team more money in the long run, I think teams just want to get a better idea of what they have. Some teams promote aggressively very well (always a fan of the way the Braves have done it) and some don’t (My stupid Mariners lol). Some teams just seem to promote everyone aggressively, while some seem to know better and take every player as an individual and decide if they can handle it. We shall see which one Texas is soon enough.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
+1
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Apr 8, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Not the Orioles.
We’re lacking three good starters in the majors, and we have too many in AAA. Berken, who was very good in AA last season is going back there.
wants to see Bergesen NOW
+1 on bergy
he pitched at my rival high school, glad to see he’s on the cusp
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
defense
You give a lot of props on Elvis’ defense, but he’s also had 30+ errors 3 years in a row. And by the minor league defensive states I saw recently, his defense wasn’t that all-fired good.
But you’re right that the main issue is the offense, and he’s simply not ready for the show.
While this is true
Remember that minor league defensive stats are notoriously unreliable. By most accounts, Andrus is good defensively.
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 8, 2009 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Andrus and Feliz.
Very interesting and worth reading. The second good post by the same writer. From now on when I see his name, I will make sure to read it.
Can't say I agree
that the Ranger’s are “rushing” Feliz. It’s aggressive, I don’t think “aggressive” equates to “bad”. He’s still within a very reasonable / normal progression of being promoted. Other than his increased walk rate in AA last year, he was VERY impressive. It’s now half a year later and he has had time to work on things over the winter, which may be a factor if the Rangers thought he has made good progress. That’s quite a bit of time – you don’t have to be facing batters to improve your game The other thing is I’m not very familiar with the Ranger’s system – it’s also possible that they needed the space in AA for other pitchers.
+1
The thing I thought while reading the analysis was “Agree on Andrus, disagree on Feliz”. There’s a HUGE difference between promoting a player early from AA to MLB vs. AA to AAA.
+1
i definitely agree. since i don’t know too much about Feliz at all, though, i couldn’t say “this guy is wrong”. a player getting promoted too early to AAA can be damaging, albeit not as bad as being promoted to the majors unprepared. thats like the holy grail of all development stunters
by maneatingbaby on Apr 8, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I realize that
However, look at Feliz.
His control is a big question (it was a small sample size, sure, but the regression was still present). And, as impressive as he was, he wasn’t really dominant in the time he spent at AA. Finally, as I kept trying to emphasize in my post, we have no way of knowing how Feliz will look when he’s routinely going 5+ innings. Again, I’m not trying to criticize him- we just have literally no way of knowing.
Slurve made an excellent point in that he could very well have improved over the winter. I’m still not sold that it’s a good move, though, and I would be seriously surprised if he didn’t struggle…
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 8, 2009 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing is
I would be equally concerned if they were too conservative with Feliz. He has such crazy good stuff that you kind of need to challenge him hard… you dont want him coasting on his stuff. Where’s that line? I dont now.. but I dont see this promotion as too aggressive. He got 10 starts at AA last year… and while his control wasnt great, his other peripherals were. Its not quite repeating a level to send him back to AA, but he’s proven he can be successful there even with shaky control. It will be fun to see if he adjusts and gains more control in AAA against more patient, advanced hitters and MLB vets/AAAA types. Those guys WILL hurt him if he doesnt improve his control.
Now if it were up to me, I would send him back to AA for the first 1/3 of the season, but I hardly have a problem with what the Rangers are doing (with Feliz). I dont want to pull out the old “the Rangers know him better than us” card, but they do (I still dont like to pull that card… because the team ALWAYS knows more than us so it doesnt mean crap. They still make bad moves!)… Maybe he’s not lacking confidence and is instead a little cocky. He’s 21, so its not exactly way off in terms of ARL. Basically, on its face, I think this is a very defensible move… and I think a little more info could easily make it what I perceive to be the correct choice.
Ok, fair enough
For me, I still wanted to see at least that 1/3 of the season from him at AA.
I cannot emphasize enough that no matter how well the Rangers know him, neither they nor us know exactly what kind of pitcher Feliz is. Literally all of his stat samples are in small sample sizes, and he’s shown iffy control on short pitch counts.
AA is the first big test for any prospect… It’s really the first place where hitters are uniformly more patient, and where hitters that are not patient first start getting exposed. So, for me, I want my top prospect to spend some time there and at least show he can handle it. Feliz didn’t do that- he pitched 45 passable, flawed innings there.
Now, I mentioned this in my post but it hasn’t been mentioned yet in the comments. One of the worst things about this move is that if Feliz has even just an OK season at AAA, the Rangers will be pressured into throwing him in the rotation to start 2010. I think we can all agree that he won’t be MLB-ready at that point.
My biggest qualm with the move was just that I don’t understand why the Rangers wouldn’t want to see what they actually have in Feliz, instead of leaving themselves potentially exposed if Feliz crashes.
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 8, 2009 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
"neither they nor we"
I suck at teh grammah.
by RedSoxFaithful on Apr 8, 2009 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Huh?
One of the worst things about this move is that if Feliz has even just an OK season at AAA, the Rangers will be pressured into throwing him in the rotation to start 2010. I think we can all agree that he won’t be MLB-ready at that point.
I don’t agree with that at all. It’s certainly possible he could be ready by then.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Apr 10, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Meh.
If in your opinion a third of a season in AA is probably all he needs, why are we even having this conversation? Your that worried about him being one level higher 2 months early? Really? That’s really splitting hairs IMO. It’s not like they moved him from rookie league to AA. Sure he had some command problems, but it’s not like he got rocked and they are overlooking that. Again, I’ll concede that it is aggressive promotion, but there is not a real cause for alarm here and really isn’t anything out of the ordinary when you’re dealing with an elite prospect.
And to say that the Rangers don’t know what kind of pitcher Feliz is, for lack of a better term, ignorant as hell. Coaches and scouts within the organization have seen every pitch of every game, they’ve seen countless bullpen sessions, they’ve broken down tape, they’ve worked with him on making adjustments and they know what kind of person he is.
Since Elvis is OPS'ing 1.250 can we put this to rest?
And for the sarcastically impaired, relax.
On a more serious note, I think the Rangers and Elvis know there will be some struggles at the plate and in the field. The idea is to get them out of the way so that as this club contends in 2010 and beyond, Elvis has the experience under his belt. His biggest tool right now is his maturity. He is not going to break down mentally if he struggles. If he hits .250-.260, improves his pitch selection, adds some bulk/power, and irons out his defense with Vizquel as his tutor, then this is a win for the Rangers and Elvis. And those things are not at all out of the realm of possibility.
As for Feliz. AAA has more hitters who have seen major league pitching and some more advanced prospects. In other words, there are less guys he can just rear back and chuck it to. The Rangers must feel he will be challenged a little more and have to learn to go to his secondary stuff to keep hitters off balance. The biggest drawback to me is that at AA, I could go watch him and Frisco is in the Rangers backyard so they could keep close tabs on him. He will spend all year working on his secondary stuff and could very possibly go the Joba route later this year.
Don't you ever damn call here again
Elvis notes so far...
As expected, he’s using his speed and defense to his advantage. Two of his hits have been less than authoritative, but he did launch a homer into the right center field bullpen in Arlington last night. If he figures out he can do that regularly during the summer, he’ll hit a few more homers than expected. That little trick helped Mike Young hit over 20 for two years in a row.
Defensively, his range has been quite evident, though he had a throw sail on him while playing on the right field side of second in a shifted defense last night. It just seemed like he calculated the distance wrongly, having been out of his normal position, and Chris Davis isn’t exactly the best first baseman to throw to. Other than that, he’s definitely been on the plus side so far, having reached a couple of balls up the middle that would not have been reached last year by Young, and showing off a solid arm with good timing. He’s not rushing his throws or overreacting to balls, so that tells me he’s matured quite a bit from the kid he’s been in the past.
some rebuttals
Texas isn’t planning on contending this year, and they have other passable stopgaps at SS (Omar Vizquel and Joaquin Arias would have been a serviceable platoon).
But, again, this isn’t a team that is planning on contending this year, or even next year.
Jon Daniels: I was talking to one of our players today about this. We’re certainly not discounting our ability to win this year. Depending on what other clubs do, that’s a possibility. I feel confident that the way we line up with young players and some of the flexibility going into next season with a lot of free agents at the end of 2009 that we can certainly compete in 2009, but even more so the year after and the flexibility and our younger players that much closer.
Jon Daniels: As we look to lay out all of our players and try to line up all of our championship-caliber players and get them on the field at the same time, we have a premium shortstop in the minors and we don’t have that same caliber at third base.
The team has said in the past that 2010 is when they expect to compete for the division. As Daniels says above, they think they can compete in 2009 due to the injuries by the A’s and Angels. Also, Vizquel was signed AFTER Andrus was announced as the Rangers SS. As for Arias, his shoulder injury suffered ~2 years ago makes him questionable as an everyday SS.
http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/01/daniels-answers-more-questions.html
but as we all know, the very best of the Rangers’ prospects (Feliz, Justin Smoak, Martin Perez) are a year away at best
and the guys who are closer than that (Julio Borbon, Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden) are complementary pieces
Derek Holland, Max Ramirez and Julio Borbon likely join the Rangers this coming summer. Borbon projects to be the Rangers leadoff hitter in 2011. Ramirez is a career .300/.400/.500 minor league hitter. He will hit in the MLs either as a DH for the Rangers or someone else. Teagarden has GG caliber defense with some pop in his bat. He will be a starting ML catcher. They are hardly complimentary pieces.
http://rangers.scottlucas.com/site/09prospects.htm
Andrus, as a 19 year old last year, had a .715 OPS at AA.
How about putting his OPS in context. Afterall, what is a 19yo suppose to do in AA?
ops by month
Apr .612
May .665
Jun .782
Jul .805
Aug .754
http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi
some are touting him as future leadoff prospectWho? He projects to eventually bat 2nd. Maybe.
the Rangers are now risking stagnating his development
THT: Though he’s blazingly fast (54 stolen bases last year), his bat may keep him in the No. 9 spot in the long run. It will this year, certainly. Makeup isn’t a problem. He expects to lead, and being among the youngest in his league throughout his career hasn’t fazed him. Indeed, his maturity partly explains management’s decision.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-texas-rangers4/
However, Andrus was already having problems reading potential steal opportunities in AA. He was caught 16 times (about 22%) at Frisco, and that number is only going to go up now that he’s in the majors. He will, at the very least, be a potential liability on the basepaths. At worst, he will cost the Rangers a significant amount of runs with his poor reads.
He may have a few too many CS. But I really don’t think it will be so many that he is a “potential liability on the basepaths” that will “cost the Rangers a significant amount of runs.”
Indeed, Feliz looked to have taken a huge step in his command early last season at single-A Clinton. Then, the Rangers decided to have him skip high-A, and the result was a huge step backwards in his command at AA.
DL: How close to big-league ready is Neftali Feliz?
SS: I think he still needs some time in the minor leagues, but we’ll find out a lot in spring training. He’s getting a chance to come to big-league camp, and to participate in that and face a different caliber of hitter. He was very successful at the Double-A level when we promoted him last year, but when you get to see more experienced hitters who aren’t going to be wowed by the velocity, that’s where the secondary pitches are going to have to play in. So he’ll let us know. Can he get to the big leagues this year? Possibly, but it wouldn’t shock me if he didn’t.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8508
Elvis Andrus - 2009 AL Rookie of the Year
feliz's AAA debut
4 innings 4 hits no runs 4 ks. 6 BBs! 2.0 go/ao. 10 base runners in 4 innings and no runs. Ks and grounders certainly help. But he won’t get deep that way.
picked off a runner
which is good, since one of the things he needed to work on this year was holding runners.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
He had a similar night
to start the year last year. One outing evaluations make as much sense as saying Andrus will maintain his current ml OPS
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