Minor League Opening Day Rosters

Watch Casey Coleman. Here’s a kid with an excellent 3 pitch arsenal, good athleticism, still making an adjustment to full time pitching and has solid stuff already. He has some consistency issues to iron out, but overall, he’s really gone under the radar a bit, partly due to Jay Jackson’s rise. I had Casey as my number 12 pitching prospect entering the year, and out of the list of guys at Tennessee, he’s somewhere from the 2nd-4th most intriguing arm there (Jackson being first, my 2nd overall pitching prospect, 3rd best prospect in the system). For everyone following Jackson, what I’d caution is that, while I’d love for his stats to be great, the only thing that really, really matters, for me, is how his change works. If he goes through some struggles, don’t jump off the bandwagon yet. I imagine the Cubs may try to get him to use that change more. I’m still a bit surprised that the Cubs are pushing him this quick, but the rumors had been out there a couple months that he might be going to Tennessee. As I’ve said for awhile, while I would rather not see it, don’t be surprised if it is Jay Jackson coming out of our pen in September and shoring any holes up.

The other guy to note, in terms of arms, besides those 2, would be Russell. The Cubs knew they were rushing him. What was intriguing was that, as I’ve noted before, prior to being demoted, Russell was actually looking better in AA. He still has a nice fast/change pairing, and by most accounts, his breaking ball improved by year’s end. A lot of people, including myself, were harsh on him early after the year ended, but if you take a step back, he’s still a very intriguing talent, and why I had him as the Cubs 13th best pitching prospect.

To say Jeremy doesn’t throw hard is true, but within the context of lefties, he throws hard enough. He can touch low 90’s if he really rears back, but he usually sits in the upper 80’s. That said, the power lefty is a rare quantity. What Papelbon offers is a deep arsenal that allows him to deal with lefties and righties, along with his ability to be stretched out. Casey Lambert, IIRC, was originally going to be a starter at UVA, but they needed him in the pen, and there he went. This is probably more of an effort to stretch him out and get him to use more than the excellent fast/curve combination, as there’s very little chance that his future is in the rotation, IMO. They were, respectively, my 15th and 17th best pitching prospects.

Maestri was talked about in previous diaries. Excellent slider, sits in the low 90’s. More of a 7th inning, at best, setup guy, than a closer, IMO. Made excellent strides last year with his third pitch, which I thought was a change, but the guy doing the f/x diaries said he was throwing an additional splitter. Had him as the 18th best pitching prospect. Blake Parker is an intriguing pen arm. Former catcher who actually had some pop, they asked him to move to pitching, and he agreed. He actually had a stopover in Iowa, albeit brief. Pops it in around 92-94, IIRC, throws a solid slider and a decent change off the top. Every report talks about his bulldog mentality. Sort of, well, for lack of a better comparison right now, Joe Borowski with better stuff. Willingness to attack and the guts to pitch could make him a solid late inning arm, although I think he profiles best for the 7th inning. I had him as a top 50 prospect overall for us, although I did wonder if I overvalued him a bit.

Vince Perkins is another semi-intriguing name. A Canadian, he was a former top prospect in the Blue Jays system, I’m pretty certain he was drafted by Wilken without going to check right now. At one point in time, he was consistently in the mid-upper 90’s with his fastball and an excellent power slider. Dunno where it is now. Gaub has been discussed, and he’s a pen arm. Even he admitted in an interview (I Forget where) that he probably won’t ever have the arm strength to start again. The interesting thing to watch is his velocity. He was sitting in the low 90’s, occasioanlly touching mid90’s. In college, he was sitting in the mid-90’s. If he can get back to the mid-90’s, he’d be a superb LOOGY prospect with a plus slider and a usable change. Now, take the numbers (the 14 K rate) with a grain of salt, as plus breaking balls can murder A ball hitters. The walk rate is a bit of a concern, so let’s see how it plays out. The last two arms are Hung-Wen Chen. I want the kid to succeed, but he’s basically an end of the rotation guy in a best case scenario, and more likely, a middle reliever. Touches low 90’s, but sits more in the high 80’s with a split/change/slider, of the top. Jayson Ruhlman may be a sleeper to watch. Throws in the low 90’s, I think, with a solid curve and a usable change. He can get lefties out, but with Ruhlman, the big issue is walks.

The interesting thing about the array of arms there is who isn’t. Sure, a couple surprises in terms of the Smokies roster, but nothing that wasn’t speculated upon, outside of Coleman perhaps. But who’s not there? There’s Cashner … who might be Daytona. But … Marcos Mateo isn’t there, which suggests Iowa for him, and it suggests we might have a high level arm in AAA. Will be interesting to follow.

The only big surprise amongst the bats was Guyer’s jump. That said, all the raw tools are there. With Castillo, it’s a matter of whether or not his defense improves. As much as I’ve touted him, he’s still more projection than ability defensively, in regards to how he calls a game, and so forth. With Guyer, what I’d watch are two things – is he showing good discipline and is he spraying the ball. He was at his best when his flyball rate was lower last year. Clevenger piqued my interest after BA’s ranking, and I’ll be curious if the talk of improved glovework is real. I mean … Clevenger’s glovework, by some accounts, was more consistent than Welington’s.

I am not too concerned with Blake Lalli’s age just yet – his bat has played, and this is his 3rd year of pro ball. 3rd year and being in AA is fine … he was a senior college bat who went unsigned, IIRC. You love guys like Lalli … a willingness to do everything, including throw a few innings. His glovework behind the plate isn’t as bad as it’s made out to be – below average, for sure, but not horrid.

Darwin Barney is actually a plus athlete, unless my mind is going blank right now. IIRC, he was considered the Cubs most athletic player at Daytona. What he is, though, is limited in terms of offense. That said, we knew this when we drafted him. Somewhat similar to Justin Sellers, who we traded for. Sellers probably has the better bat, but Barney probably has the better glove. I don’t think the Cubs are placing too much faith on Thomas as the leadoff guy of the future. Most spec believes that Flaherty will pass him at 2nd this year. I wouldn’t be surprised with Ryno going with Adduci as the leadoff man with the Smokies. Thomas’ walk rate fell badly last year … but after being really disappointed in him when the season ended, I am now only moderately disappointed. Short of it is, in Thomas, we jumped a fairly raw guy to a tough pitcher’s environment based on rookie ball success. That said, he won’t reach the bigs with a 20+ percent K rate, so he’s got to bring that down. If Flaherty moves at 2nd, which is still spec at this moment, don’t be surprised if Thomas ends up shifting to CF.

I want to like James Adduci and have hopes for him, but there’s little indication of power. He’s a patient hitter who will slap the ball around. I guess, think Matt Murton-lite. Robnett, well, I didn’t have much expectation when the trade was made and thought Sellers was the better guy to watch. I still think that. All the world’s tools, but so swing or miss. I have some mild interest in Ty Wright … but he doesn’t have the power to really cause me to have high interest.

Matt Camp is a useful utility player in the minors (able to play IF/OF), but unless his bat shows something soon, he’s really a minor league utility player. Same goes for Jon Mota. Kyle Reynolds crashed back to earth after a surprising 2007. In all likelihood, he’s nothing more than a minor league corner IF, but there is some pop in the bat if he could just cut down on his K’s.

So, catcher was a mild surprise, as Fleita had talked about Castillo in AAA. Castillo in AA makes more sense, as he’s more projection right now. Let’s see – a bit surprised that Canzler didn’t make AA. I doubt he’s in AAA, and I don’t really want him taking AB’s from people in Daytona, despite having some pop in his bat. I’d rather see Rosa man first. Some had speculated that MArquez Smith may be rushed to Tennessee, but this makes more sense.