Discussion Question: How Good Can Matt Kemp Be?

by John Sickels on Apr 5, 2009 12:26 PM EDT

I'm still under the weather physically. Hopefully opening day will revive things. In the meantime, here is a discussion question to keep you busy until I can get back on the saddle tomorrow with my ROY picks and predictions.

DISCUSSION QUESTION, TRUE OR FALSE:

Matt Kemp will be an All-Star and an MVP candidate this year, hitting over .300 with 20+ homers, 30+ steals, and improved strike zone judgment.

Poll

Matt Kemp, All Star and possible MVP?

True; Kemp will mash this year

475 votes

False; he's good but not quite tihs good yet

594 votes

1069 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 20 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Well...

I don’t know if the discipline will improve, but considering he went .290/18/35 last year, a .300/20/30 seems very easily attainable.

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Apr 5, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

^^^^ this

"If you were a hot dog, would you eat yourself?"

by Trobone on Apr 5, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Interested to hear from the 60% who believe a moderate bump in production like that is not attainable.

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Apr 5, 2009 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I answered the poll's question

It’s not that those numbers aren’t attainable, but the poll asks if Kemp is an All-Star and possible MVP, which is a different question. I don’t think those numbers will assure him of a spot on the All-Star team, and when middle infielders can match those numbers and corner guys can surpass them, I don’t see him as a MVP candidate.

by rcobeen on Apr 5, 2009 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

What do middle infielders and corner guys

have to do with Matt Kemps all star potential?

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Apr 5, 2009 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I can't find too many

middle infielders who put a line close to 300/20/30 and weren’t all stars

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Apr 5, 2009 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Missing the point

rcobeen is just stating that the above line, while great, isn’t considered all that special since there are middle infielders now who routinely hit 20+ HR.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Apr 5, 2009 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Thank you Boxcutter

I thought I was being fairly straightforward, but you put it in context without being snarky, which I was about to be.

by rcobeen on Apr 5, 2009 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

+1 mostly...

I do think Kemp has a chance for the All Star voting, especially if the Dodgers are doing well. But I doubt he gets any real MVP backing (maybe one of those random votes or two). If the Dodgers do well, it will likely be ManRam that gets MVP consideration, not Kemp.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Apr 5, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Unless

If Manny gets injured or is a putz like in Boston, that MVP consideration would have to go somewhere else. Why not Kemp?

by David Tokarz on Apr 5, 2009 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

My thoughts...

I think 20/30 is totally attainable and probably even likely. I just think he strikes out too often to hit .300. I see something along the lines of .270/.340/.460 from Kemp this year. Totally solid, but not all-star/MVP quality.

by slamcactus on Apr 5, 2009 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

by David Tokarz on Apr 5, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I would say...

… that he i not unlikely to hit 30+ HRs this year. I could see a .290/35/30 type season from him definitely. The guy has a ton of power and has a solid lineup to hit in. I see him as one of the top OFs in the NL this year.

On the other hand, I dont think he will be a real threat for MVP, because there is no way he hits like Pujols. Pujols is just in another league from almost anyone else. He’ll also have to contend with a couple 50 HR threats in Fielder and Howard and a great hitter in Wright who would likely have an MVP one of the last two years if not for the Mets late season swoon. Not to mention guys like Reyes, Hanley and Utley. I just feel like the NL MVP race will be brutal. Kemp could hit .310/35/35 and lose because Hanley does the same as an SS, or Pujols goes all triple crown on the NL or something.

All Star, definitely. MVP candidate, nope (at least not a legit threat).

by grozzy on Apr 5, 2009 3:35 PM EDT reply actions

Exactrly

The poll asks if he will be an All Star and MVP candidate, for that, I say no. But I do think he will hit the marks that John stated above. I am not sure he will go 290(+)/35/35, but I can see a 300/25/35 out of him.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Apr 5, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions

re: Kemp and that plate discipline

he needs to cut down on his whiffs and then he will become a masher one day.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Apr 5, 2009 7:27 PM EDT reply actions

re: Kemp

If he can cut his strikeouts (153 in 606 AB’s) to half that he might be an MVP candidate someday. right now, no.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Apr 5, 2009 7:29 PM EDT reply actions

Maybe I'm in the minority,

but I think it’s more probable that Kemp will regress and post a line similar to what Hunter Pence did last year (.269/.318/.466) than be an All-star or MVP caliber player offensively. I understand he’s talented, etc., but that .363 BABIP is just too ominous to ignore.

by joeiz on Apr 6, 2009 3:11 AM EDT reply actions

So is...

…his career 21.6 LD%.

Also, while it actually hinders his overall statistics, he hits an awful lot of groundballs to the left side, and I believe he’s one of the faster runners in the game, so that inflates his infield hits (9.4% career).

I’m not saying he can’t regress, but he carries a .374 career MLB BABIP and his last 2 years in the minors at AA and AAA, he didn’t have a BABIP below .374.

by Chad Moriyama on Apr 7, 2009 6:24 AM EDT up reply actions

Well exactly,

A career 21.6 LD% usually does not translate to .363 BABIP.
Quick way to calculate estimate BABIP: LD%+.120. In Kemp’s case, it would be .336.

His career infield hit% is inflated by an obscenely high rate in 2007, when it was 16.3%, compared to 6.3% last year. I doubt Ichiro even gets infield hits at the frequency that Kemp did in 07.

There is little evidence to lead me to believe that he can sustain that BABIP, and unless he improves his strike-zone judgment, offensively he won’t be better than last year.

by joeiz on Apr 7, 2009 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

Seems to me part of the problem

Is the definition of “MVP Candidate”. I see that as someone that finishes in the top 10 in MVP voting. If Kemp posts a 25/30 season (which is definitely in the realm of possibility), then he’ll finish in the top 10. Does he have a legit shot at the actual award? Probably not, unless Pujols gets hurt, Howard fails to hit above .240, and Manny gets bored and does not produce.

I do see him as a legit All-Star though. He’s one of the top 6 OF’s in the NL right now.

by guru4u on Apr 8, 2009 9:36 AM EDT reply actions