Is GO/AO a pretty important pitching stat??

by hotshotschamp on Apr 30, 2009 9:05 PM EDT Comment 11 comments

I'll admit I don't know much about this stat, and it's impact on a pitchers performance.

Does anyone have any examples of pitchers in the history of MLB with threat GO/AO rates.?

Are they usually sinkerball pitchers.?

Can a high GO/AO every be a bad thing?

I know Twins prospect Carlos Guttierrez has about a 5+ ratio of Ground balls to fly outs. I'm not sure if that's good or bad....

Basically I'm just asking if GO/AO is a stat people put much value on, or is strike outs much more important, or how do you view it.

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GO is! AO not so much...

Kidding, getting groundballs is the second most important thing a pitcher can do.

by alskor on Apr 30, 2009 9:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

for instance, i’ve said for at least 6 months that ricky romero has the highest upside of any LHP who doesn’t throw 95 (a false premise, i know now, since ricky romero does throw 95 MPH), and the reason i said it is because romero had shown the ability to strike advanced hitters out in AA, to limit his BBs allowed in A+, and to get massive amounts of GBs, also in AA. though he’d never done all three at the same time, i put him on my watch list because his potential, were he to put everything together, is absolutely massive.

but in evaluating just GB%, the difference between a brett anderson and a ricky romero isn’t usually important. the only thing it really means is that if both hit their peak, romero would be more valuable. 95% of the time, though, it won’t mean a thing.

also, GB% is a very useful tool in evaluating marginal talent. for instance, kyle kendrick was pretty successful in 2007, but his stuff is marginal, his peripheral rates suck, and his GB% was just slightly above average. he imploded the following year.

but if you look at a guy like brad bergesen, the only significant difference between kendrick and himself is that bergesen’s GB rates are pretty solidly above average. since both guys are pretty marginal in all other areas, the 7 or so percent difference in GB% can mean the difference between a 10 year career, and washing out after a disappointing sophomore season.

brian mccann: derek lowe's got the best slider i've ever seen
john smoltz: yeah? and josh bard's the best catcher i've ever thrown to.

by variablesdont on Apr 30, 2009 9:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Er, you do realize Brett Anderson has a great ground-ball rate for his career, right?

His career rate is like 8 percent better than Ricky Romero’s. In fact, Romero’s never had even part of a season, unless you count two innings in 2005, where he’s had as high a GB rate as Anderson has for his career.

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by PaulThomas on Apr 30, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

holy shit.

i think i just fell in love with brett anderson, then.

brian mccann: derek lowe's got the best slider i've ever seen
john smoltz: yeah? and josh bard's the best catcher i've ever thrown to.

by variablesdont on Apr 30, 2009 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is the revelation I had about July of last year.

by PaulThomas on Apr 30, 2009 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

GO/AO

Is pretty pointless. Groundballs and Flyballs on the other hand is more useful. The SLG on groundballs is going to be much lower because they will never go for home runs, while fly balls go for HR’s 11% of the time across major league baseball.

GO/AO only considers OUTS, not balls in play and that in turn hides information and can be skewed big time by the defenders behind a certain pitcher.

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by dougdirt on Apr 30, 2009 9:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

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by OldProspects on May 1, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Groundballs

VERY overrated IMO.

Yes, they tend to help ERA, but only slightly help actual Runs scored against the pitcher. Why? Because 80% of all errors occur on grounders. Yes, Slg on flyballs is much higher, but is negated to a large extent by all the errors that occur on grounders.

Fact of the matter is, when it comes to actual Runs scored by the opposition, K Rate and BB Rate are MUCH more predictive of actual pitcher success than GB Rate.

by guru4u on Apr 30, 2009 10:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is the kind of question someone would ask in a Joe Chat

Are we being baited?

by Fanon on May 1, 2009 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who's Bill Fremp in this analogy?

by RedSoxFaithful on May 1, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is wishy-washy, but...

It all depends.

Obviously a strikeout pitcher has more control over the outcome himself, but depending on the park that one plays in and the team that is in the field behind him, a lot can change. So from a raw talent/success in any environment, a strikeout guy trumps all.

As for the rest….

You really aren’t dying to have a flyball pitcher in Texas, nor would you want a groundball pitcher on turf (On the flip side, I could make an argument that I would let the grass grow a bit on my infield if I had infielders with a lot of range and a lot of groundball pitchers).

Also, to me, range would be much more important in the outfield if you have pitchers that allow a lot more flyballs and line drives.

I think a good GM says, here is our organizational philosophy, we want Groundball pitchers, infielders who can pick it, and outfielders who slug the ball. Then he builds a scouting staff and a development staff that supports those philosophies (and makes trades based on thos philosophies).

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by BStal11 on May 1, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs