Ranking Top 20 Minor Leaguers in shallow AL-only league

This is making me a sad panda.

First step I would take is to divide the guys into ready/near ready and >1yr away

SO:

READY/NEAR READY
Gordon Beckham
Carlos Santana
Neftali Feliz
Derek Holland
Michael Bowden
Brian Matusz
Matt LaPorta
Justin Smoak

OVER A YEAR AWAY
Jesus Montero
Greg Halman
Chris Carter (OAK)
Tim Beckham
Chris Tillman
Michael Ynoa
Eric Hosmer
Ben Revere
J.P. Arencibia
Austin Jackson
Dayan Viciedo
Aaron Hicks

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Then, from the first group I would rank the guys:

Justin Smoak
Neftali Feliz
Brian Matusz
Gordon Beckham
Derek Holland
Matt LaPorta
Carlos Santana
Michael Bowden

From Group 2:

Eric Hosmer
Chris Tillman (Tillman and Hosmer are the two STUD far away guys)
Chris Carter (OAK)
Jesus Montero
Dayan Viciedo
Austin Jackson
Tim Beckham (2012 ETA guys just dont make sense in your rules)
Michael Ynoa (nor do 2014 ETA guys)
Aaron Hicks (Like him better than Revere)
Greg Halman (Big risk)
Ben Revere (Not a beleiver)
J.P. Arencibia (Not a beleiver)

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So I would go something like:

1) Justin Smoak (Flip him with Feliz if you value pitching more… Smoak is a sure thing, a ready made #3 hitter)
2) Neftali Feliz (Nasty. Has that arm that the Gods reached down and touched. Only one here with a more than 10% chance of being regarded as being the best player at his position in the next five years)
3) Brian Matusz (Surest of sure things for a pitcher. Plus everything except an Ace’s fastball)
4) Gordon Beckham (Could be a special player… one of those guys we are all going to ask why we didnt see he’s been a superstar all along)
5) Derek Holland (Great upside? Check. Help this year? Check.)
6) Matt LaPorta (I want to say “good, not great” but more like “great, but not excellent… and factor in his position…”
7) Eric Hosmer (Might be too low… many think he wont be far behind Smoak in terms of ETA…)
8) Chris Tillman (Needs some work, but too good to pass up here)
9) Carlos Santana (I know I should be more impressed… but Im just not. I also dont like his team situation.)
10) Michael Bowden (Value pick at this point)
11) Chris Carter (OAK) (Lesser prospect than Montero… but will be there faster and might be his equal in fantasy)
12) Jesus Montero (So, so young… wanna wait that long for a 1B?)
13) Dayan Viciedo (Wild card, but very, very intriguing)
14) Austin Jackson (No chance at stardom, but solid and a value)
15) Tim Beckham (Some would have him higher… I cant see it with your rules. I dont think he’s a super star so its not worth waiting four years. I think hes undervalued most of the time… but not with your rules)
16) Michael Ynoa (Soooooooo far away….)
17) Aaron Hicks (Same as above, give the edge to the potentially special pitcher)
18) Greg Halman (Could be special, but longest shot on the board)
19) Ben Revere (Wont hit for power… value, but dont go crazy…)
20) J.P. Arencibia (Dont get overexcited about having a guy with the potential to only be the fifth best catcher in a ten team league. Most of the time I try to focus on what a guy CAN DO, rather than what he can’t…. but with Arencibia you really shouldnt ignore what he can’t do. He’s a very flawed hitter. Dont be suckered in.)

Conclusion? You should get a good player at 12 & 15. I would say decent chance Hosmer falls… he would be a steal there. Tillman, too.

Where would he be on this list? He’s available, maybe he’s a better pick than Arencibia?

My top six would be:

Smoak
GBeckhame
LaPorta
Santana
Feliz
Holland