FanPost

2009 Amateur Draft Mock #3 Round One

Not a whole lot of changes here this week, mostly at the top.  There are some changes starting in the second half.  The top 15 are exactly the same as last week, mainly due to the fact that no one had huge, or horrible, performances over the past week.  Here you go:

 

1. Washington - Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State - No change here.  Strasburg had his worst start, but when it's a quality start with twice as many strikeouts as innings pitched, you're pretty good.  Previously: #1.
2. Seattle - Dustin Ackley, 1B/CF, North Carolina - Another weekend, another couple of innings in center field.  The more he plays out there, the more likely he is to become the top prospect behind Strasburg.  Previously: #2.
3. San Diego - Alex White, RHP, North Carolina - He didn't have a great start, but neither did anyone else behind him.  I'd have to think San Diego is still deciding between White and Grant Green, and Aaron Crow could enter that equation with a solid Indy League showing.  Previously: #3.
4. Pittsburgh - Grant Green, SS, USC - Green committed a fielding error over the weekend, and also had a few struggles at the plate on Saturday, but overall had a decent weekend.  Had he done what was expected of him against Washington State, he'd be in the third slot.  Previously: #4.
5. Baltimore - Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats - I'm really surprised that I haven't heard as much about Crow as I have about Tanner Scheppers this Spring.  Hopefully that means Crow is going about his business and preparing himself for a quick Indy League debut, followed by a quick signing and extended affiliated pro ball debut.  Previously: #5.
6. San Francisco - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - Matzek keeps going about his business as the most polished prep pitcher in the 2009 class.  He'll be just fine as a top ten pick.  Previously: #6.
7. Atlanta - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA) - Just to give you some confirmation that he's being considered this high, BA reported Brian Sabean took in a Wheeler start personally last week.  GMs usually only take in games of players they genuinely consider at their slot, and the Giants' slot is one higher than here at number seven.  Previously: #7.
8. Cincinnati - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri - Gibson had his worst start of the year, but apparently was battling through less than stellar fastball command.  He's a pure command pitcher, so that's concerning, but the fact that he almost finished the seventh inning on a night where he had inconsistent stuff can be a bit encouraging.  Previously: #8.
9. Detroit - Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA) - Tate will take an overslot bonus, and Atlanta will almost certainly not do that.  Detroit's not afraid of overspending for a quality player, even a prep player.  Good enough fit for me.  Previously: #9.
10. Washington - Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia - I thought I'd be changing this slot every week, but this is really just making too much sense.  Maybe I'm just psyching myself into thinking it makes sense.  However, Poythress is slowly earning this slot, so maybe that means the Nationals won't be able to afford him here.  Previously: #10.
11. Colorado - Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State - Leake threw a complete game, allowing only a run on five hits, and he struck out seven.  What more would you want from a college pitcher with an established track record?  Maybe 14 strikeouts like Strasburg.  Previously: #11.
12. Kansas City - Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX) - Miller touched 95 on the gun in his last start according to Jason Churchill at the ESPN draft blog, striking out 10 in 4 innings.  However, there are more and more references showing up to teams maybe preferring Zack Wheeler over Miller.  Odd.  Previously: #12.
13. Oakland - Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb - Brothers pretty much lost complete control on a bad weekend for college starters.  He walked six in four innings, and he also allowed seven hits, totaling six earned runs allowed.  Ouch.  However, since no one named Mike Leake had a dominating start, he wasn't really hurt.  Interesting draft class we have here.  Previously: #13.
14. Texas - Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX) - Purke is someone I'm having trouble placing, but I know he'll be tabbed no later than this slot.  His mechanics raise universal concern, but his talent is arguably higher than fellow prospect Tyler Matzek.  Man, this draft is hard to predict.  Previously: #14.
15. Cleveland - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints - Scheppers is close to making his 2009 debut in a game situation, meaning he'll start moving very quickly either up or down the board.  I'm on the side that thinks he'll go up, and he might supplant Kyle Gibson at #8 with strong showings and more Gibson starts that include command problems.  Previously: #15.
16. Arizona - Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Santa Monica HS (CA) - Skaggs is an interesting guy that could go anywhere in the second half of the first round.  I expect the Diamondbacks to go for projectable pitching with one of their two picks here.  Previously: #24.
17. Arizona - Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State - In a rough week for college starters, Oliver showed his natural talent that I think will keep him in the first round.  He did so well that I moved him up.  He might be a little too expensive for Arizona, who has a lot of picks to sign this year, but it's a good fit nonetheless.  Previously: #20.
18. Florida - Mychal Givens, RHP, Plant HS (FL) - I had Jacob Turner at this slot last week, but Turner will need an above-slot bonus, something Florida will not handing out in all likelihood.  Givens has the same amount of talent, but with less polish.  Florida is patient with development, so this is a possible fit.  Previously: #21.
19. St. Louis - Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt - Minor allowed four runs on his Friday start, but also struck out 13 in 7 2/3 innings.  Most scouts will look more at the missed bats than the runs, even with college stats, as fielding, umpiring, etc. can influence runs allowed.  Minor is really doing his best to make sure he sticks in the first round.  Previously: #17.
20. Toronto - James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky - Paxton struck out 11 Alabama hitters and walked just two on Friday night, an encouraging sign that his command is coming back.  Paxton's also Canadian, meaning that while this isn't a strong factor for the Blue Jays to take him, it's just one more step towards getting a good fit and good value.  Previously: #23.
21. Houston - Luke Bailey, C, LaGrange HS (GA) - While other players are making big cases to move forward, the high school catching crop's continually strong play has lulled some to sleep.  That means they might fall a bit in favor of hotter arms.  Bailey's still the best, and Houston won't shy away from back-to-back first round catchers.  Previously: #16.
22. Minnesota - Max Stassi, C, Yuba City HS (CA) - Stassi's gotten this close to Bailey, and his untangibles will make him very tempting to teams like Minnesota that draft on both tools and makeup.  I'm not suggesting Stassi will unseat Joe Mauer, but he's good enough that the Twins will seriously consider moving Mauer permanently to save his health.  Previously: #19.
23. Chicago (AL) - Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU - Mitchell's heated back up, and I think he's moved himself back into the first round this week.  Mitchell's a really good fit for the White Sox, who like college players with solid tools.  I had him here in my first mock.  Previously: #34.
24. Los Angeles (AL) - Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO) - Turner will need an above-slot bonus, and while the Angels have more picks than most, they also have plenty of money.  I exspect the Angels to at least come close to breaking the record for a single year draft budget, and someone like Turner should be in their plans.  Previously: #18.
25. Los Angeles  (AL) - Matt Davidson, 3B, Yucaipa HS (CA) - I've read enough negatives about Davidson that I think he might even slide out of the first round.  However, I think the Angels might pick him up based on promise, as his power potential is humongous.  Nice value pick here.  Previously: #22.
26. Milwaukee - Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS (NJ) - I'm having a lot of trouble reading anything negative about Trout, as both scouts and other writers seem to love this kid.  He really helps himself by becoming buddies with scouts, and I think he won't last past the end of the first round.  Previously: #25.
27. Seattle - Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin HS (SC) - While some writeups say Younginer will end up as a power bullpen arm, I think that's not an issue for teams drafting this far down.  Even if Seattle has to move him to the bullpen, I think they'd be happy with a kid who could eventually hit triple digits.  Previously: #27.
28. Boston - Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State - This makes a lot of sense, but as with the Poythress pick above, I think I might be convincing myself that something makes more sense than it does.  He's the best college center fielder regardless, and he'll go before the supplemental round.  Previously: #28.
29. New York (AL) - Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State - He has a big arm, and while the Yankees could easily go prep here, I think they like Heckathorn's long term potential combined with his polish.  Nice pick here.  Previously: #31.
30. Tampa Bay - Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy - I'm a little shocked by how much helium this kid has.  The more I read on him, the more I think he belongs right up there with Bailey and Stassi as the best prep catchers.  However, he can play almost any position, and Tampa Bay values that kind of athleticism.  Previously: #50.
31. Chicago (NL) - Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA) - His draft position is pretty consistent, but it just depends who wants him more.  He's the best pure prep shortstop without much argument, and the Cubs would love to find that kind of talent this late in the first.  Previously: #33.
32. Colorado - AJ Pollock, OF, Notre Dame - Pollock's floating around a lot, but his skillset is still pretty nice.  The Rockies like their college guys, especially this late where they'll want someone to sign to slot.  Previously: #41.

That's it for this week.  What do you guys think?  Not enough movement?

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