Who's surprised you?

by OldProspects on Apr 27, 2009 9:29 PM EDT Comment 34 comments

Yes, the first month of the season isn't finished yet, but what prospects have especially surprised you, either for the good or the bad?

For me, maybe the most surprising thing is the speed that Brett Lawrie is showing (7 steals and 3 triples in only 50 ABs). I also didn't expect Jason Knapp to be quite this effective in A ball, nor just how well Casey Kelly would pitch despite not really wanting to be a pitcher.

What's most surprised you?

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Not technically a prospect, but Daric Barton isn't exactly making his case for the big league roster right now

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving

by PaulThomas on Apr 27, 2009 10:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

His BB/K ratio still is quite solid

A similar thing is happening with Billy Butler, who has seemingly forgotten how to hit for power, but still is doing a terrific job with walks and strikeouts.

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by OldProspects on Apr 27, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Butler was never much of a power hitter

More of a doubles guy, just people (myself included) figured that with his batspeed and build, the HR power would come as he got older. So far it hasn’t.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Apr 28, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and it's not going to until he starts getting the ball off the ground all the f'ing time

he has a hole in his swing down and in. pound a 2 seamer there and it’s a sure fire ground ball. he has to close that up.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Apr 28, 2009 2:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He hit 30 HRs as a 19 year old

in A+ and AA ball, and 21 HRs in AAA and the majors at age 21. It seems like every two years he shows terrific power, maybe.

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by OldProspects on Apr 28, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

but it was in High Desert. He’s never been described as a light-tower power guy. More of a 20-25 with a good average, with promises of more as he nears his 27-30 peak. I don’t think much has changed about that projection.

Also, he just hit 2HR today, which has nothing to do with anything, but it’s pretty cool.

by slamcactus on Apr 29, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Neither was Barton

by PaulThomas on Apr 28, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's an old man by prospect standards

… but Jake Fox has been absurdly good this month; I had figured him fading off in to the AAAA sunset.

I pretty taken aback by how terrible Max Ramirez has been thus far.

by aCone419 on Apr 28, 2009 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Getting

about four AB’s in the WBC really set him back. Ans he’s a slow starter anyway.

Go Rangers...don't suck...

by Kinslerhomer on Apr 28, 2009 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And*

Go Rangers...don't suck...

by Kinslerhomer on Apr 28, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Is this another situation where the guy is annoyed at the level that he is?

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by OldProspects on Apr 28, 2009 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

another AAAA type like Fox

Eric Patterson him hitting in AAA again is no surprise but he’s been stuck at the same level since 06. Considering there are teams out there that could use a 2b, i would think he has some value.

Sean Doolittle his AA stint in 08 was disappointing, but since the AFL/Spring Training and early 09 season the power has iimproved + walk rate plus playing RF everyday. looks like he’ll leave barton in his dust

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=5059

Sean Doolittle homered twice and drove in four runs for Triple-A Sacramento on Monday.
The A’s would have to think about picking over Doolittle over Daric Barton if they needed a starting first baseman or outfielder in the near future. The 22-year-old is batting .290/.402/.536 in 69 at-bats. Barton is at .148/.273/.213.

by Asfan4ever723 on Apr 28, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

David Hernandez

It seems he may be coming into his own. John did a write-up on him and gave him a solid B and said he really liked the guy. So far, so good.

I know small sample size, but:

14.2 IP, 12 HA, 42% GB , 23/5 K/BB, 3.07 ERA (w/ .367 BABIP though).

Anyone else see Hernandez making his way to a B+, and possible rotation regular in BAL by mid-end of 2009? I know Tillman and Arrieta are higher profile, but Hernandez is pitching so well.

by ChalupaCabrera on Apr 28, 2009 3:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Some Cubs

Pleasant surprises

Don’t really need to mention Jake Fox anymore, but yeah, he’s been a positive.

Tony Thomas – After an up and down 2008 campaign where the Cubs skipped him past Peoria and to Daytona, Thomas started 09 in Tennessee. He currently has a .333/.408/.561 line and looks more like the guy Cubs fans thought they had 2 years ago. The 13/7 K/BB has been a nice sign, and he’s been battling in his at bats. The one downside has been the SB ratio (3/6).

Steve Clevenger – He could always hit, and only 34 AB’s so far, but .353/.436/.588 is a nice start. Showing more pop than before, if his defensive improves, he could be a big league backup backstop.

Casey Coleman – I liked him, but he’s been much better than I thought. Early, though. He was pushed to AA.

Josh Vitters – To be honest, I thought he’d struggle somewhat in the MWL in the early going.

Dan McDaniel – He’s hurt right now, but he got off to a solid start transitioning to a starter. Here’s hoping for the best. He was pushed to Daytona.

Ryan Searle – After a scathing comment from BA, I didn’t know what to expect, but he’s been solid after getting pushed to Daytona.

Casey Lambert – I didn’t know what to make of the decision to use him as a starter. He has the stuff potentially to be a decent mid-end of the rotation lefty. I still think his future is in the pen, but he’s gotten off to a solid start.

Jose Ascanio – They’ve been starting him, and he’s been solid. Still more of a power pen arm, probably, but after an up and down 08, it’s a good sign.

Darwin Barney – Bat’s gotten off to a nice start.
_____________________

Not so pleasant

Brandon Guyer – Rushed to AA, he’s met some struggles.

Welington Castillo – Some talk had him starting in AAA, but AA was the right move after his bat tailed off in AA last year (after starting strong when he got bumped up to AA). So far, huge struggles with the bat.

James Russell – Cubs rushed him to AA in 08, demoted him to Daytona, then sent him back to AA to start this year. Just hasn’t been good, and the expectation of many when he was drafted, that he would be a pen arm, may happen.

Jay Jackson – Electric stuff, but it was a questionable, but gutsy, decision to bump him to AA when his arsenal could’ve used more polish. He’s struggled.

Alessandro Maestri/Jeremy Papelbon – Two arms that some thought had potential to help us have struggled.

Andrew Rundle/Dylan Johnston – A lot of Cubs fans were insanely high on Rundle after a short spurt of success in Boise. Got rushed to Daytona and has met troubles. Dylan Johnston came off a solid Peoria campaign in 08, albeit injury riddled. So far, has been struggling as well.

by toonsterwu on Apr 28, 2009 3:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm still not that excited about Josh Vitters

He has a nice K rate, but rarely walks and is showing virtually no power.

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by OldProspects on Apr 28, 2009 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

to be honest

I do think he’s gotten a bit overhyped, moreso by Cubs fans than others (if I remember top prospect lists, he was a borderline top 50 guy, which is probably valid). I mean, I keep thinking about the offensive comparisons of a Howie Kendrick with a bit more power – but that’s nice for 2nd. At 3rd? It’s okay.

As for the walks, that concerns me to. The argument for those who say that isn’t an issue is that he has such good plate coverage and discipline. So … to that extent, I’d like to see him in Daytona, and I think he’ll be there at some point this summer, just to see how he adjusts to tougher pitching. That said … there’s a part of me that would like to see him work on his game completely, offense and defense, at Peoria and clean it up before moving him up.

by toonsterwu on Apr 28, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kendrick's a weird case

Because he showed a ton of power in the minors, but not that much in the majors. Otherwise, I basically agree with you

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by OldProspects on Apr 28, 2009 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Angels have a lot of hitter friendly stops in their minor league system...

by alskor on Apr 28, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Indeed

Look at the numbers their “top” hitting prospects have put up the past several years. Kendry Morales, Brandon Wood, Sean Rodriguez, Matt Brown, Kendrick, Jeff Mathis… I mean, these guys aren’t terrible hitters (OK, Jeff Mathis is terrible), but if you just looked at their AAA OPS’s you’d think the Angels had the division locked up for the next six years. The AAA stop is probably one of the top 5 hitters’ parks in baseball, and the A+ stop isn’t much less favorable.

by PaulThomas on Apr 28, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not prospects

Can’t say I’m all that surprised, but Edwin Jackson has been cruising in the early going. For all the grief I took over liking that trade, it sure looks like the Tigers may have made out just fine for trading a defensive replacement…

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/10/689156/edwin-jackson-trade#10689574

by slurve on Apr 28, 2009 9:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah...

Jackson was pretty much built to succeed in Comerica, though. He’s still not striking anybody out, and he’s been even more of an extreme flyball pitcher so far. His FIP is sitting at 4.25, based mostly on his ability to avoid longballs. Eventually a few more balls will leave the yard, and he’ll come down to earth, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end the year with an ERA in the low 4’s/High 3’s when all’s said and done.

I still like the trade quite a bit for Tampa Bay.

by slamcactus on Apr 29, 2009 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Meh

Sure he’s not striking out a batter per inning, but 21 K’s in 32 innings isn’t terrible. More importantly he isn’t walking as many. I don’t think anyone thinks he’ll keep up his current pace, but if he ends the year with a low 4’s/high 3 ERA like you say, that’s a valuable pitcher, and certainly more valuable than a defensive replacement/platoon OF’er. Hardly “garbage” as he was being described as in December. Joyce isn’t even in the majors right now.

by slurve on Apr 30, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So?

Joyce isn’t in the majors because he started the year with an injury. He’s hitting very well in Triple-A, and he’ll be up soon.

Also, characterizing him as a replacement/platoon OF is just wrong. He’s a good defensive OF with a bat right around league average. He was worth 1.5 WAR last year in half a season, and he’s under club control for 5 years.

A guy with an ERA in the Low 4’s/maybe high 3’s in Comerica is a guy with a true talent ERA around 4.5. That’s about what Jackson’s been all his career, and nothing he’s done in the early going changes that.

21 K’s in 32 innings is a K/9 of 5.91, well below the AL average of 6.7 (admittedly a bit lower for starters, but not THAT much), and he’s currently sporting a .233 BABIP and a 0.78 G/F ratio. The balls in play will start falling soon and he’ll be right around where he was expected to end up. I don’t see how that qualifies as a surprise.

Jackson’s not a bad player to have on a team that wants to contend, but he is what he is: a flyball pitch-to-contact player who will look a lot better or worse depending on the quality of the outfield defense behind him and the size of the park he’s pitching in. See: Ryan Franklin, 2001-2003. The best outfield defense in baseball made him look like a legitimately good pitcher on the surface. Reality didn’t agree.

by slamcactus on Apr 30, 2009 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hmm...

doesnt change your point… but I dont recall Joyce starting the year injured and he’s already been called up once IIRC.

by alskor on Apr 30, 2009 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He...

was injured in spring training when they made the decision to start him in Triple-A. Right Leg tendinitis. http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_previousnews.aspx?sport=MLB&id=5260

by slamcactus on Apr 30, 2009 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

sounds more like

“we don’t have a spot for you right now-itis”

by slurve on Apr 30, 2009 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Elvis Andrus

Yeah, he’s not going to be a stud this year, but it sounded like he would get eaten alive offensively heading into the season.

by Ophidian on Apr 29, 2009 10:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

Pretty impressed with his ability to dog paddle on offense. The Rangers still would have been better off going in a different direction, though.

by alskor on Apr 29, 2009 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

.681 OPS?

I mean, I guess dogpaddling is a reasonable descriptor, but your expectations have had to have been pretty low for that to have impressed you

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by OldProspects on Apr 29, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's better than lots

Right now he’s got a .310 wOBA, just below Jose Reyes’ .320 and just above Troy Tulowitzki’s .309.

His OPS is better than Khalil Greene, Stephen Drew, or Rafael Furcal. Offensively, he would appear to be one of the top 30 players getting SS at bats so far this season. All the projection systems had him in the .590-.650 range for OPS.

I agree that Andrus was rushed, and I expect him to end up in the .650 range by year end, but I am pleased to see him handling this about a well as one could hope.

by Ophidian on Apr 29, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This

…and my expectations were very low…

by alskor on Apr 29, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

The reason why nobody’s getting excited about Stephen Drew’s .606 OPS in the first 80 ABs is because they assume that it will return to the level he set last year – above .800. Do you think that Elvis Andrus’ OPS will go up too? Apparently you think that Andrus’ OPS will end up in the .650 range, which is roughly where I think it will end up to. He adds some value with this speed and with his defense, but it seems a little odd to argue that he’s better offensively than Drew or Furcal (or Khalil Greene, but he’s a strange case).

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by OldProspects on Apr 30, 2009 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Per the topic

I am surprised at how well he’s done so far.

I was merely using other, better known players as context for performance to this point… and it’s not like Furcal has never put up stinker high .600’s seasons in the past (2007). Given that he’s a young player that will stay at SS, I would guess that the Rangers are rather pleased with Andrus offensive performance so far.

by Ophidian on Apr 30, 2009 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs