Prospect Retro: Jack Cust
by John Sickels on Apr 27, 2009 2:19 PM EDT
46 comments
Prospect Retro: Jack Cust
Jack Cust was drafted by the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first round in 1997, 30th overall, out of high school in Somerville, New Jersey. His bat was considered to be excellent, but doubts about his poor outfield defense, speed, and lack of athleticism kept him from going earlier in the round. He hit .306/.447/.488 in 35 games in the Arizona Rookie League, drawing 31 walks in just 121 at-bats. I didn't give just-drafted players letter grades back then, but a similar player would get a Grade B or B- from me nowadays.
Cust was assigned to Lethbridge in the Pioneer League in 1998, hitting .345/.530/.601 with an incredible 86 walks in 73 games, 223 at-bats. His strikeout rate was also high, but his combination of power and plate discipline was special. He even managed to steal 15 bases, but no one expected that to continue at higher levels, and his defense was still panned. I didn't give him a grade in the 1999 book due to lack of full-season experience, but nowadays would have given him a Grade B or maybe B+.
The Diamondbacks assigned Cust to High Desert in 1999 at the age of 20. He hit .334/.450/.651 with 32 homers, 96 walks, but 145 strikeouts in 455 at-bats. He was young for the level, and led the California League in both OPS and secondary average, but of course it was High Desert, which is like hitting on the moon, and scouts continued to worry about the strikeouts and defense. I gave him a Grade B+ in the 2000 book, buying into his power/patience combination.
Moved up to Double-A El Paso in 2000, Cust hit .293/.440/.526 with 20 homers, 117 walks, and 150 strikeouts in 447 at-bats. El Paso helped him, but again I liked the patience/power combination and was willing to overlook his other flaws, giving him another Grade B+ and comparing him to Jim Thome as a hitter. I also wrote that he was an "atrocious defensive outfielder" (based on personal experience of seeing him play for El Paso) and would best fit as a DH.
Cust continued up the ladder to Triple-A in 2001, hitting .278/.415/.525 with 27 homers and 102 walks, but 160 strikeouts, in 442 at-bats for Tucson. He got into three games with Arizona, going 1-for-2 with a walk. His batting average was rather disappointing considering the Tucson context, but again the power and walks stood out. I gave him another Grade B+ in the 2002 book, though a lot of scouts were still skeptical about him. The Diamondbacks traded him to the Rockies in January '02 for reliever Mike Myers.
2002 was somewhat disappointing: he hit .265/.407/.524 with 23 homers and 83 walks in just 359 at-bats for Triple-A Colorado Springs, but just .169/.295/.246 in 35 games for the Rockies, 65 at-bats resulting in 32 strikeouts. Scouts complained that Cust was too passive, too patient, and let too many hittable pitches go by. Complaints about his defensive continued, and many scouts were already writing him off as a Quadruple-A slugger. I retained faith, giving him a Grade B in the 2003 book. I wrote "Cust is certainly young enough to adjust. . .but it won't happen automatically, and there may be more bumpy times ahead before he figures it all out."
The Rockies gave up on him in the spring of 2003, sending him to Baltimore for Chris Richard. He hit .285/.422/.426 in 97 games at Triple-A Ottawa, then showed what he could do with a .260/.357/.521 mark in 27 games for the Orioles and exceeding rookie qualifications. According to the Mitchell Report, Cust admitted to a teammate that he tried steroids sometime during his tenure at Ottawa
Despite hitting well for the Orioles in '03, he ended up repeating Triple-A in '04, hitting just .235/.358/.433. Cust attributed his poor performance to a philosophical disagreement with Orioles coaches, saying that the Orioles ordered him to be more aggressive and that he wasn't comfortable with this mandated approach. Granted free agency, he signed with Oakland for '05.
The Athletics let him play the way he wanted to play, and the result was a .257/.402/.438 mark with 19 homers and 115 walks, but 153 strikeouts, in 479 at-bats for Triple-A Sacramento in 2005. He wasn't promoted to the majors, and by this time at age 26 his chances were fading. Even statheads were giving up on him. Signed by the Padres as a free agent for 2006, he hit .293/.467/.549 with 143 walks and 124 strikeouts, with 30 homers, for Triple-A Portland. Note the improvement in his strikeout rate. He got off to a fast start at Portland in 2007, hitting .300/.430/.725 in 25 games, then was traded back to Oakland, where he finally got a chance to play in the majors consistently.
Cust is a career .242/.385/.472 hitter in the majors, with 252 walks and 437 strikeouts in 359 games. This is very much what you would expect given his minor league record: a low batting average but a high OBP due to all the walks. His very high strikeout rate annoys traditionalists, and his glove is pretty awful, but he is useful if deployed properly.
PECOTA comps: Jim Thome, Jason Thompson, Ken Phelps, Erubiel Durazo, Mickey Tettleton, Randy Milligan, Carlos Pena, Pat Burrell, Tony Solaita, Bernie Carbo. Sim Score comps: Sam Horn, Jason Lane, Bob Hamelin, Marcus Thames, Don Lenhart, Brian Hunter the slugger, Brant Brown, Carmen Castillo, Marv Throneberry, Dusty Rhodes.
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I'm a huge Cust fan (obviously), but his career just pisses me off
Jerked around by two organizations, especially Baltimore (you’d think an organization with their recent history of sucking would welcome trying something a little different). I truly believe the guy would be approaching 200 career HR in 2009 if Baltimore had used him right (as in let him DH with the occasional start in the outfield). Cust is simply the victim of dumb teams not understanding that getting on base and hitting for a lot of power more than outweighs a bunch of strikeouts.
As for his defense, it’s still not good. But it’s gotten better. I wouldn’t want him out there everyday, but to throw him out there a couple times a week as the A’s are doing now won’t kill them.
Also, it should be noted that he’s the ONLY player named in the Mitchell Report to have absolutely no actual evidence against him. The “proof” is Larry Bigbie remembering a conversation. That’s it. No tests. No evidence of the drugs. No signed checks. Nothing. Every other player has some sort of real evidence. It doesn’t make Cust innocent, but it makes it curious that his name was included.
by thejd44 on Apr 27, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
it should be noted that he’s the ONLY player named in the Mitchell Report to have absolutely no actual evidence against him. The "proof" is Larry Bigbie remembering a conversation.
I don’t think he’s the only player. Brian Roberts was named by Bigbie as well w/o corroborating evidence.
"Your wife told you to play in New York.
Well, my wife told me you look like a dork." Boo Teixeira guys.
by birdman on Apr 28, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does this mean then?
In his statement, which was officially released yesterday, Roberts admitted that in 2003 he took “one shot of steroids,” but “never used steroids, human growth hormone or any other performance-enhancing drugs prior to or since that single incident.”
http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/baseball/bal-sp.orioles19dec19,0,795884.story
by BBFan1 on Apr 28, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
re: Cust
I’ve always liked Jack Cust for some reason; had him on my fantasy team for 3 years in a row…don’t ask me why.
To me, he’s kind of like a poor man’s Adam Dunn (without the fear he puts in opposing pitchers).
Even if Cust was a Roid user, his plate discipline was for real, you can’t fake/enchance numbers like that 2007: 124 G, 105 BB, 164 K; 2008: 148 G, 111 BB, 197 K… (holy strikeouts Batman!).
I’d much rather have his skill sets than say, a toolsie guy like Reggie Abercrombie…if you can somehow graft the strike zone discipline of Cust onto Reggie….wow.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Apr 27, 2009 2:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Re: "poor man's Adam Dunn"
If you properly account for park factors, Cust has actually been better than Adam Dunn over the past couple of seasons.
by CapgrasDelusion on Apr 28, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jack Cust is the funnest player ever
Why? Because you can instantly tell whether analysts know what they’re talking about from what they say about Jack Cust. He’s like a human litmus paper. It’s amazing how many outwardly smart-seeming people will reveal that they actually know nothing about baseball through the medium of Jack Cust.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Apr 27, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice to see thejd44 & PT are alive and well
you guys ever coming back to AN?
"just a beating heart ... plasma that we'll put into our uniform." - Billy Beane
by athleticsBB4life on Apr 27, 2009 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pretty please! we need you!
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 27, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+23489298428942
"True fact: In a global thermonuclear war, the only human who would survive would be David Eckstein" -PT
by travdog6 on Apr 27, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1 from me too
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Apr 27, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eventually
It’s finals week, or as they like to do it in law school, finals month.
: /
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Apr 27, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was going to ask if you were ever going to return
I haven’t posted there since the big blowup (that’s a lie, because I posted once when Harry Kalas died), but I check it out occasionally. In the past month, the quality of that place has gone from prime rib to something the cat puked up. It’s sad, really.
And I should add that nobody who posts here is the reason why. It’s 90% a bunch of names I’ve never seen before and 10% the same old troll types.
by thejd44 on Apr 29, 2009 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Back in the Day...
I drafted Cust in my Strat-O-Matic league’s 1999 draft, 106th overall. I cut him before the A’s gave him a chance, but I still root for the guy. I’m glad he kept his chin up and put together a nice career…
by ajw on Apr 27, 2009 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The A's have been working with Cust to make more contact with the ball this year.
It’s a small sample size, but so far Cust is hitting .288/.425/.848
I’m a bit worried he trading too much of his power for a higher average, but it could also be the Oakland Colosseum heavy spring air knocking the balls down.
Sometimes life will strike you out on a curve ball and the only choice you have is to flip off the umpire and walk to first base anyway.
by Threepwood XX on Apr 27, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jack Cust is the prime example of a major FAIL of scouting...
Valuing aesthetics over actual performance
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Apr 27, 2009 7:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
So
What took Billy Beane so long to figure out the “Cust-Factor”? In 2006, Beane had him under control for a full AAA season. Hmmmmmmm.
by Colorado Fan on Apr 28, 2009 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shrug
Simple, Billy Beane, along with a lot of other GMs made a mistake. Although, there is also the possibility that the 2006 A’s squad simply had no room for him at the DH spot (Frank Thomas).
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Apr 28, 2009 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's also a possibility that Cust actually improved
as his statistics indicate.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Apr 28, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It was 05, not 06
I think if Cust had been fully healthy, he would have gotten the DH spot, which had no long-term incumbent. He spent 2006 with the Padres org.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Apr 28, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah, my bad
Was going by what CF said.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Apr 28, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cust was hurt that season
which anecdotally buttresses the steroid allegations, incidentally, since he had carpal tunnel syndrome (which is sometimes a side effect of steroid use, not that it’s conclusive or anything). Notice the major drop in slugging percentage that year?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Apr 28, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love Cust
Its actually an indictment of how many poor Gms had jobs in the early 2000s and still do today. How some AL GM did not wonder, Hm, this can hits a alot of HR and walks a ton, big obp%.. so what if he Ks alot. I cant believe a generally terrible early 2000s team like the Royals, Mariners, Rangers(can you imagine how many HR he could hit there), Blue Jays and Tigers etc etc didnt take a shot on him. Its criminal, clearly no matter what he would walk alot. Just shows sometimes stat guys are right and scouts can be wrong. Oakland and the Red Sox are the two teams who value obp% the most I would imagine.. so he is a great fit in Oak. Just dont let anyone hit the ball to him in the field… Yikes.
by Maxima231 on Apr 27, 2009 8:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There are enough other guys with similar profiles who end up failing
That a lot of people figured he probably wasn’t worth the risk, especially after his down year in Ottawa and considering that everyone thought his only position was DH.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Apr 28, 2009 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
WHAT????
“I cant believe a generally terrible early 2000s team like the Royals, Mariners…”
Did you even watch baseball back then? Which awful Mariner team do you mean from the early 2000s? The 2001 team that won 116 games? Or maybe the 2002 and 2003 teams that won 93 games each?
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on Apr 28, 2009 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but those teams probably had some bum at DH.
/sarcasm
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
by marcello on Apr 28, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll go against the majority
The fact he was exposed as a not so great all-around player hurt the fact he had on-base skills/power potential which may not have been enhanced.
No one knew where he was going to play and was projected as a DH.
At one point, he was an elite hitting prospect, but no one was going to hand a job to him, especially coming up through the National League and having an all-or-nothing approach.
I’m not implying he is a bad ballplayer, but is maybe a little overrated for the ability he has – take a walk, swing for the fences, strike out, be a butcher in the outfield.
by BBFan1 on Apr 27, 2009 11:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't say he's overrated, because that's exactly the player he is
And also, a whole lot of people (including A’s fans) hate the hell out of Cust. There is an ongoing argument over at AthleticsNation about whether or not Cust is a good hitter or not.
by NateHST on Apr 28, 2009 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Define "Good Hitter"?
Good OBP/SLG Hitter – Yep.
Good Baseball Player…. Maybe.
by Colorado Fan on Apr 28, 2009 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well the argument isn't baseball player
Most people agree it’s terrifying if he’s playing in your team’s outfield. The argument almost always comes down to whether he’s a good hitter, with one side arguing that he has an OPS of .800 at least year in and year out and that he is a good hitter…and the other side arguing that he doesn’t get enough hits to be a good “hitter.” And while it is frustrating with runners on 2nd and 3rd and he usually walks or Ks and doesn’t just make contact.
My philosophy on the matter is that the goal on offense isn’t to get a hit, the goal is to notmake an out. Cust does that very often, and hits for lots of power. I think PT made the argument on AN over a year ago that a lineup of 9 Jack Custs would average something like seventeen baserunners, two doubles, two HR, etc. With this, I find it difficult to understand how you can argue he’s not a good hitter, but people still do.
by NateHST on Apr 28, 2009 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
[starts another pointless debate on how Jack Cust is a good offensive player but not a good hitter]
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Apr 28, 2009 3:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait,
Do you agree with the comment you linked?
by NateHST on Apr 28, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nope
Just linked it to show how ridiculous it is to argue that Jack Cust is a good offensive player but not a good hitter.
"We were shit, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Apr 28, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially when they mean the same effing thing
Since the only non-hitting aspects of offense is base running, and while Cust isn’t as slow as some people think he’s not going to kill anybody on the base paths. So Offense – Baserunning = hitting. I really don’t get why some people continue to try to make this semantic argument.
by thejd44 on Apr 29, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A good hitter
Is Jason Giambi [in what I assume is his juiced up prime] – a guy who could hit to power to all fields, hit for a high average, walked a ton, but never really had strikeout totals that made you think ‘this guy really strikes out too many times.’
With Cust, you get the impression he is swinging for the fences as an ‘all-or-nothing’ guy. Yeah, the guy can talk a lot of walks, but his approach to hitting doesn’t seem as sophisticated [or paticularly impressive].
Cust may ideally a good offensive player [walks a ton/patient to a degree/hits for a ton of power], but not a guy who is a good hitter, where he can adjust to hit a ball to the opposite field on a consistent basis. The number of strikeouts he has compiled may not be an indication of how good of a player he is, but it says there are holes in his swing that can be exploited.
If somehow he can show ability to hit .270, while still hitting for power, showing patience – then maybe he can show he has the ability to be a good hitter.
by BBFan1 on Apr 29, 2009 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A good hitter is somebody who produces while standing in the batter's box
You can invent other definitions if you want, but all they do is try to make inferior hitters better by assigning them skills that, while useful perhaps, do not necessarily make somebody more productive. Sorry, I refuse to buy this semantic argument. A batter is a hitter is an offensive player (minus base running).
by thejd44 on Apr 30, 2009 2:36 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You sorta touch on something I've been thinking about for a while
Why don’t (AL) teams had jobs to guys like Cust? I never really understood teams paying $10+ million for a DH. What’s the difference between Cust, Thome, and Ortiz? When they’re all DHing, it’s not much. So why don’t more AL teams groom Cust-type players for the DH role so they can get cheap offensive production and why do NL teams draft these guys in the first place?
by thejd44 on Apr 29, 2009 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Strike-out Issue
Perhaps, if he swung with his eyes open, he’d make contact more frequently.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on Apr 28, 2009 9:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
off topic- Phil Hughes
How do you guys think he’ll do from here on out?
by cjc9387 on Apr 28, 2009 10:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Baltimore
Jerked around by two organizations, especially Baltimore (you’d think an organization with their recent history of sucking would welcome trying something a little different).
I saw him play for Baltimore against the Yankees, the “play” where he wrecked an inning falling down between 3rd and home was just jaw dropping;y awful.
Cust’s problem is essentially that he’s really bad at everything except standing in the batter’s box- and he looks terrible.
Teams will give more chances to guys who look athletic, who look like baseball players, than to guys who don’t.
by jpwf13 on Apr 28, 2009 12:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
wrecked an inning?
IIRC, that would have been the game winning run. I honestly wanted to strangle him at that point. I still talk about that play.
by alskor on Apr 28, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So now a person's entire skill set is based on one play?
Cust is actually not that bad as a baserunner. He frequently takes the extra base (this is anecdotal only) when other guys with his speed might not. He’s a little faster than people think, as he’s not anywhere near Molina slow, and he seems to be smarter on the bases than a lot of other guys. Yeah, that ONE play in Baltimore was pretty bad. Doesn’t change the fact that a bad team like the Orioles could’ve gotten a lot of production out of him if they hadn’t tried to destroy his approach.
by thejd44 on Apr 29, 2009 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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