Sunday Potpourri

by John Sickels on Apr 26, 2009 12:14 PM EDT

Weekend Potpourri

**Mets prospect Ike Davis was a first round pick out of Arizona State last year, and was one of my favorite hitters in the draft. He was very disappointing in the New York-Penn League, hitting just .256/.326/.326 last summer, without hitting a home run. In my book this year, I projected/predicted that Davis would begin 2009 in the Sally League and hit .312/.417/.528 through June. He would then get promoted to the Florida State League in the second half, but would lose the power stroke again and hit .261/.321/.378, leaving everyone to wonder about his bat again.

Well the Mets skipped the Sally League part and sent him directly to St. Lucie this spring, where he is hitting .271/.328/.390 through 15 games, without a home run, which is very similar to what I thought he'd do at this level.

It is too early to conclude that Davis is a busted pick, but he now has 73 games of pro experience without hitting a home run. The knock on him as a college sophomore was lack of power, but he supposedly answered these questions by hitting 16 homers in his draft year. Was that just an illusion due to the metal bat? Perhaps. There are reports that Davis puts a lot of pressure on himself and plays "too tight," which is part of the reason why I thought they would start him in the Sally League, to help boost his confidence. I don't know what's going to happen here any more than anyone else does, but Davis does have a good arm and would be a prospect as a pitcher too, if the power doesn't come around.

**Zack Greinke. . .what can you say? I've been watching him pitch since he was in A-ball, and this year he has put everything together. He's got the mid-90s heater working. He's mixing in his slider very well. He's using his improved changeup. He's even using the 65 MPH curveball again, a pitch he had largely abandoned last year. His command is outstanding, and he appears fully confident in himself. He'll have a bad start eventually but right now he is a pure joy to watch. If the Royals give him enough run support (always an open question), he has to be the early favorite for Cy Young. Credit where credit is do: to Greinke himself for overcoming his social anxiety problems, and to the front office and management of the Royals system, both the current regime and the past one, who took an enlightened approach and gave him the support he needed back in 2006.

**One prospect I follow closely is Tampa Bay's Jeremy Hellickson, since he went to my high school (Hoover) in Des Moines. He's off to a fast start for Double-A Montgomery, with a 1.64 ERA and a 24/7 K/BB in 22 innings, with just 13 hits allowed. About the only flaw in the numbers is a 0.46 GO/AO mark. He's allowed just one homer, but a fly ball rate that high does make me worried about his gopher ball potential at higher levels. Nevertheless, he now has 17 starts of Double-A under his belt combined with last year, with a 103/22 K/BB in 97 innings and 97 hits allowed, with a 3.43 ERA. It would be logical for Hellickson to move up to Triple-A once David Price gets promoted to the majors. This would position the right-hander for a September trial, but he's a better candidate for '10.

**Jason Castro, Houston Catcher of the Future, is off to a .273/.310/.424 start in 18 games for Class A Lancaster. That's not great for the context, and I don't like the 4/14 BB/K ratio in 66 at-bats, but it is still too early to draw any broad conclusions. I do note he's hitting .342/.366/.474 at home, but just .179/.233/.357 on the road. Again. . .too early to know if it matters, but this split is definitely worth keeping an eye on given the questions that already exist about his bat.

**Can Phillies outfield prospect Michael Taylor confirm and solidify his 2008 breakout season? He's hitting .286/.345/.469 in 14 games thus far for Double-A Reading, with two homers, five walks, eight strikeouts, and four steals in four attempts (49 at-bats). Small sample, etc., but this is good to see, especially the BB/K ratio which is improved over last year's 19/46 BB/K in the Florida State League. He's always had excellent tools, but needs to prove his progress against advanced competition this year. So far, so good.

**Off-Topic. Lotsa buzz going around about the new Trek movie, which is getting excellent reviews. Chris Pine (the new Kirk) has big shoes to fill. Here's some classic Shat.

I'm also interested to see what Bruce Greenwood does with the character of Captain Christopher Pike, if he can build on what Jeffrey Hunter did in the first pilot.

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Comments

One of my faves...

That scenary chewing excerpt is indeed a classic…Eric McCormack’s version in “Free Enterprise” is also a standout…hopefully the new film overcomes the “enormous danger potential” that exists…Great stuff…

by almantle on Apr 26, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks

For the Davis write-up.

by Fanon on Apr 26, 2009 1:35 PM EDT reply actions

Davis

I tend to take a more favorable view of the way the Mets push their prospects than John does, but Davis should have pounded the ball in Brooklyn last year, but instead was pretty awful. Considering that, I agree that they probably should have started him in Savannah. If I remember correctly, Davis can also play the outfield corners, which certainly doesn’t lessen his offensive responsibilities much, but could help a bit, assuming his defense there is solid (I have no idea if it is).

He’d be a relief prospect if converted to pitcher, right?

by Fanon on Apr 26, 2009 1:40 PM EDT reply actions

wrist

didn’t he have a wrist injury last year?

Anyway, reese havens, on the other hand, is producing.

by wobatus on Apr 27, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Davis, Hellickson, Castro, Treck

Ike Davis:

I initially had doubts about Davis as a high pick because he hadn’t hit in Cape Cod. By draft time though I had been convinced with most everyone else that he was still a decent mid-round choice. For now, I tend to not worry too much about the power for a guy who is still making adjustments to this level of competition (and wood bats), and am more concerned to see him hit for average and show good discipline. The raw power is clearly there, it’s just a question of whether he can get the timing right to show it against good pitching. Right now he’s just hitting everything the other way, he’s not quick enough to turn on a good fastball in. For a 1B prospect though, you need to see more to rank him high at all. And he’s way too slow to play anywhere but 1B. He still has the raw potential that he could turn into a good 1B prospect, but even believing the power will come around eventually, it’s not clear it will be enough to ever be anything special at 1B. That’s more a high upside 3rd-5th round talent than a 1st round talent.

Greinke – great stuff, great story, love rooting for this kid.

Hellickson – around this time (or a couple months later) last year when Hellickson was getting ranked in the top 25, I thought he was one of the most over rated prospects. Sort of average all around 4th SP stuff, and didn’t seem to project to be much of an innings eater either. He may have been a bit lucky for his first 4 starts this season as well. He has only a 27.8% ground ball rate so far, and despite a 16.7% line drive rate, only a .226 BABIP. And guys with good command of their secondary stuff do tend to fare well in early spring. Still, I like the strikeout rate so far, he does seem to have enough ability to fool people to continue to move up. I put him more in the Ian Kennedy class of prospects than a top 50 type talent. I’m not sure he deserved to be left off top 100 lists altogether, he may belong there in the back end. He’s at least top 150 anyway.

Jason Castro – this guy I liked because he did hit, and with excellent power, in Cape Cod. His off season his sophmore year in college was due to injury. I never saw much reason for there to be doubts about his bat. His record with wood bats was sparkling, and his college season in 2008, once adjusted for park and schedule, was about as good as anyone outside of the top 10 picks. Plus he projects to stay at catcher. I wouldn’t worry about his ratios this early either. He has 7 extra base hits so far, for one per 10.1 PA; that make the strikeout rate of one per 5.1 PA acceptable. While it would be nice to see 3 or 4 more walks, the walk rate was fine last season.

Trek – liked the original, and a couple of the spinoffs. I should check out this new one. I’ve only recently though discovered a show called Firefly, which was apparently cancelled by Fox after one season. Available on the internet or DVD. Best sci-fi I’ve seen in a while. Good characters and dialog sharp enough it could have been written by David Mamet.

by acerimusdux on Apr 26, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions

+1 on Firefly

Go buy the movie Serenity. It’s a continuation of the series. Both written by Joss Whedon who’s an incredible writer. I’m enjoying his Dollhouse currently too. I’m still pissed at Fox for jerking around Firefly before finally canceling it. The last 4-5 episodes were brilliant and hinted at greater things to come. The movie was excellent as well. It’s my favorite science fiction series since Babylon 5 which I also highly recommend.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 26, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions

I caught the 2nd half of Serenity on cable this week

I really need to see it from the beginning now though.

by acerimusdux on Apr 27, 2009 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Really i hated the movie.

It gave river far too many powers that

Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom

by designatedforassignment on Apr 27, 2009 4:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't get the Joss Whedon craze

So many people seem to live this guy as a writer, and I’ve seen a good portion of his work and just feel like he’s more a good collector of cliches than a good writer. He’s definitely improved since the low point of Angel. Firefly is okay and though I’m yet to catch a good episode people I respect continually try to sell me on Doll House. But even still, I’ve never found him particularly clever or compelling, just very, very accessible. That said, Dr. Horrible’s Sing-Along Blog is awesome, but I think that’s more just because Neal Patrick Harris making fun of himself never gets old.

by Mark Himmelstein on Apr 27, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Eh

Well, there’s no law saying you have to like him and nothing I say will change your mind so it’s pointless to argue. I do find it funny that you use the cliche argument everyone uses when they don’t like a well regarded writer. I also like JW’s sense of humor. He does go overboard on the whole grrrrl power thing at times but that’s only a minor nit.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 28, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Well

I didn’t realize the cliche argument was so, cliche lol. Seriously though, as far as you know, its not like I throw that label onto every writer I personally don’t like. I’d much rather you made an argument FOR Mr. Whedon than attacked my method of stating an opinion. No offense, but doing that makes you seem less credible than your argument makes me. I made the comment to maybe spark a discussion and give you a chance to convince me if you were interested in engaging in a dialogue, so why take the low road and attack my method instead of my reasoning?

Anyway, I just don’t think the guy is all that clever. Dr. Horrible is a great example. My friend showed it to me because we were talking about Venture Bros (which I don’t love either, but for different reasons). You tell me what’s more clever (and remember, I like Dr. Horrible):

1. The Guild of Calamitous Intent
2. The Evil League of Evil

I personally think one of those is much funnier than the other.

Still, I’m not saying I don’t respect the guy. He’s super-accessible, and that’s great for a prime-time television writer, and he’s stayed in a tough, competitive game for a long, long time. He deserves all the credit in the world for his perseverance. But keep in mind here, you’re talking to a guy whose idea of good TV is Arrested Development or Its Always Sunny in Philadelphia or HBO’s Mr. Show with Bob and David. Two of those shows got canceled after four seasons, and the humor in all three is exponentially sharper than Whedon is in his dreams.

My idea of bad TV is Lost, which is something else I just don’t get, too contrived and convoluted. The characters are not-so-subtle archetypes, not people, that bugs the hell out of me.

But, suffice to say, I’m not the most credible television critic in the world, but that doesn’t make my opinion any less valid.

I would like to add though: I do like Star Trek, not all of them, and don’t love them, but I consider it more watchable. At least in Trek the characters are developed in believable ways, and the cliche’s are ethical and not personal. I can deal with that.

by Mark Himmelstein on Apr 28, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Just thought of another example

My idea of bad TV is also F.R.I.E.N.D.S. The fundamental premise of that show just urks me. You can have as much social drama as you want, but you can always count on the most neurotic people you know. That’s a dangerous message to spread, lol. Plus Matthew Perry thinks he’s a lot funnier than he is.

by Mark Himmelstein on Apr 28, 2009 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

It's more about charachters and dialog

The sci-fi can be cliche at times. It’s mostly just a framework to drop in a group of very different characters with different outlooks on things and use all of the tensions and conflicts as a pretext for some very witty dialog. Heck, it’s practically a sit-com. The characters are hilarious. It’s like Taxi in space, with a lot more action and suspense thrown in.

It isn’t really meant to be anything deep, it’s light entertainment, but brilliantly done.

by acerimusdux on Apr 29, 2009 5:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah I'll agree with that

But quality “light entertainment” does not equal quality writing. I can stomach Firefly, its not awful, but when you begin with the premise of “its like the Wild West….IN SPACE” there’s only so much room for thought provoking material.

You guys have seen Dr. Horrible though right? If not, I highly recommend it, especially if you’re a Whedon fan. I guess he did it during the writer’s strike. Again, its not brilliantly written, but NPH is hilarious in it.

by Mark Himmelstein on Apr 29, 2009 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

Weird, I’ve been reading this blog for a while now, and I just read that the author went to Hoover High School. That’s my alma mater as well. I remember watching Jeremy Hellickson play basketball, he was pretty good at that too, just a natural athlete. I guess he chose the right sport to ultimately pursue.

by binjamin on Apr 28, 2009 11:04 AM EDT reply actions

yay

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Apr 30, 2009 2:04 AM EDT reply actions

Ike Davis

up to .297/.373/.446, and hit his first pro home run on Tuesday. Not bad for fla St. league.

by wobatus on Apr 30, 2009 4:28 PM EDT reply actions

Two more doubles today too

He’s red hot. And its not just the HR. He finally started taking some walks after failing to draw one in the first few weeks. Now in his last 10 games (including the current game in progress), he’s gone 12 for 34 with nine walks, five doubles, a triple and a homer, and recorded at least one hit in nine of those games. That’s a .352 / .488 / .647 line (the OBP may be a bit lower, MiLB.com doesn’t have SF of SH in the gamelog, and they don’t list PAs, so I can’t calculate that correctly) for that stretch.

by Mark Himmelstein on Apr 30, 2009 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions