Padres recent draft analysis & 2009 1st round options
by pffriberg on Apr 18, 2009 10:03 PM EDT
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PrintI blog on the Padres and just did my first Padres' 2009 1st round draft history & intentions.
http://padresrundown.blogspot.com/2009/04/draft-stuff-first-take.html
(Excerpt 1)
When you look at that list you cannot help but be underwhelmed (at least). But to say the Padres have drafted poorly is incomplete analysis at best and potentially even dishonest…
The current Padres drafting/scouting team has only been in place since 2005 (even then, Grady Fuson joined the team and advised on 2005 – he didn’t take over the lead role until the 2006 draft).
(Excerpt 2)
...[T]he Padres have given us some good clues about where they are leaning… Towers recently said that they targeted hitters in the last draft because they knew there was a lack of hitters in the 2009 draft. Towers has also talked about the quality of pitchers in this draft and on the big league club there has been renewed interest pitchers with above-average velocity fastballs. I think we safely assume that interest will correspond to the pitchers they draft as well.
Clink link to get the whole story.
(Excerpt 3)
My current ranking:
1. Grant Green
2. Dustin Ackley (provided he can play CF or 2B – if not, rank him behind White)
3. Tyler Matzek
4. Aaron Crow
5. Alex White (though if his arm action checks out okay I would put him ahead of Matzek)
6. Kyle Gibson
7. Matt Purke
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Nice read.
If you want people to comment on it more, I’d post at least an excerpt of the piece in place of Filler Filler Filler…
mmm
it’s an interesting read. i think the padres should take ackley even if he stays at 1b. the talent level after SS is pretty even, and for myself there’s no pitcher that i think stands out from the crowd.
At worst...
Ackley would be a 5-tool corner OF (with Gonzalez, Blanks, and Dykstra) they’ve got plenty of fire-power at 1B – so even if Dustin can’t play CF or 2B he’s ain’t chopped liver.
Are you saying you’d take Ackley over Greene if both were available at #3?
At worst?
Are you serious?
Saying someone would be a 5-tool player “at worst” is almost always a silly thing to say and in this case it is a REALLY silly thing to say.
Ackley, of all players, is not a guy who everyone is sure of his 5 tools on.
He obviously has plus speed and obviously has a plus-plus-plus-plus-(a thousand times plus) contact hit tool.
No doubt about that.
All those other tools are in question.
Except for a little bit of his freshman year of college Dustin Ackley has never been a corner outfielder. Ever.
Why? Partly team needs (until this year) but also because his arm is made of jelly and has gone under the knife a bit.
Poor arm health which has lead to an inability to throw well is a major reason his college career has come at first base.
So… No. He isn’t “at worst” a 5 tool player. Because.. at worst.. his arm turns out so bad (late-career Jeff Bagwell) he can’t even throw from LF.
Also. His power is also a big question mark. If he is limited to 1b/LF at the MLB level he is probably going to have below-avg power for his position.
Hes a great hitter, with amazing wrists and wonderful batspeed, but he isn’t a very big guy and hasn’t really been a big slugger even with the metal bats. He hits tons of doubles and is tied for the team lead in HRs this year but he has never been a guy that was really a lock to have MLB power. In fact, one of the biggest marks AGAINST Ackley is whether he will have MLB power… esp if he is a 1b/of only.
Also, since his arm and future position are both big question marks right now it seems premature to give him an average or better grade in the “defense” part of the tool grades.
So basically… “At worst” he is a player with 2 plus tools and 3 weak tools.
That is a far cry from "at worst Dustin Ackley is a 5-tool corner OF.
The arm thing is what really blows my mind about the “5-tool” thing. When on earth has it ever, ever been said that Ackley was a plus thrower? Where did you see that?
In HS that might have been true (he was a good pitcher) but since he became a prospect at UNC his arm has been a Q the whole time, due to arm health reasons.
Don’t get me wrong. I love Ackley. He is an amazing, amazing hitter and a great ballplayer but he isn’t necessarily a 5-tool players.
But, heck, the real great thing about him is that he is so good that he doesn’t even HAVE to be a 5-tool player to be a good MLB ballplayer. Plus speed and plus-plus hitting for avg will go a long way.
My bad...
…on the arm thing. I guess I took the “5-tool” thing for granted and assumed if he could even marginally play CF (as he is now) then worst case he’s a corner OF. The power, the average, the speed are all there, and I’m assuming w/ his speed he could be an above-average defender in the OF.
Ackley
I think there’s a decent case for the Padres to take Dustin Ackley here. He’s a line drive, gap hitter which makes sense for hitting in PETCO. He could take the mantle from Giles in right field and maybe remind some people of Tony Gwynn.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
Plus the Padres love hitters with good track records, and Ackley certainly has that. He’s the surest thing as a hitter in this draft, so if they decide to go with a position player and Ackley is still available, I’d be shocked if they passed on him.
Of course, given the above quotes from Towers, it’s entirely possible they look to White or Gibson. But I’d honestly be shocked if they popped Green over Ackley.
by PhillyFriar on Apr 19, 2009 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
The Padres
should take a picture to help that rotation. But all things aside, Ackley is an amazing talent and the team would find a place for him to get that back in the lineup.
Cain is Able ...
how is a photograph
going to help the padres’ rotation?
by richieabernathy on Apr 20, 2009 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice...
Dude, not a bad take, but check your spelling “a picture” and “back” (rather than bat)…
The 2 biggest organizational weaknesses are at SS power arms. So I’m with you there… The top arms are all quite a ways from San Diego and unless Drew Cumberland pans out (Low-A) there’s not an athletic fielding/hitting SS in the system.
I don’t think the Pads will pass on Grant Green, but if Green is gone, they could go Ackley or one of the arms (White or Matzek)…
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