Prospect Retro: Cliff Lee
by John Sickels on Apr 18, 2009 5:45 PM EDT
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Prospect Retro: Cliff Lee
Cliff Lee was drafted by the Montreal Expos in the fourth round in 2000, out of the University of Arkansas, where he'd posted a 4.45 ERA and a 77/52 K/BB ratio in 65 innings, showing a strong strikeout rate but struggling with his control. He owned a 90-94 MPH fastball, and his curve, slider, and changeup were all promising, but because of the command problem and a disciplinary suspension, he lasted until the fourth round. The Expos skipped him past short-season ball, assigning him after he signed directly to Cape Fear in the Sally League. He posted a 5.24 ERA with a 63/36 K/BB in 45 innings, again showing a strong strikeout rate but too many walks. I gave him a Grade C in the 2001 book, noting that he had a live arm but needed to throw more strikes.
Lee was much more effective in 2001, posting a 2.79 ERA with a 129/46 K/BB in 110 innings for Class A Jupiter, with just 78 hits allowed. His K/BB, K/IP, and H/IP marks were all much better than Florida State League average. I gave him a Grade B- in the 2002 book, but pegged him as a breakout candidate.
Lee was assigned to Double-A Harrisburg to begin 2003, pitching very well indeed with a 7-2, 3.23 mark and a 105/23 K/BB in 86 innings with just 61 hits allowed. Interestingly, his velocity was actually down a bit, he was throwing 87-92 MPH, a tick below his previous standards. But his secondary pitches were sharper, particularly his changeup, and he was one of the key prospects sent to Cleveland in the Bartolo Colon deal that summer. The Indians sent him to Double-A Akron (2-1, 5.40 with a 18/10 K/BB in 17 innings), then Triple-A Buffalo (3-2, 3.227 with a 30/22 K/BB in 43 innings), then gave him two starts down the stretch in the majors, where he allowed two runs on six hits with a 6/8 K/BB. I gave him a Grade B in the 2003 book, writing that I liked him a lot but that he might struggle in the majors initially.
He was bothered by a strained oblique and a hernia in 2003, splitting the year between minor league rehab outings and the majors, making just nine starts for the Indians, though he pitched well with a 3.61 ERA and a 44/20 K/BB in 52 innings, 41 hits allowed. He began 2004 with a 10-1 record, but was bedeviled by control problems and hit hard in the second half, finishing 14-8 but with a 5.43 ERA. He was much better in 2005 (18-5, 3.79, 143/52 K/BB in 202 innings), then split the difference in '06. He had a horrible year in '07, but as you know he rebounded fully in '08, going 22-3, 2.54 with a 170/34 K/BB in 223 innings and winning the Cy Young Award.
As a prospect in both college and the pros, Lee always showed excellent K/IP and H/IP marks, demonstrating the quality of his stuff and his future potential, but his command was erratic and kept him from being rated as an elite prospect most of the time. He has been up-and-down in the majors, certainly brilliant at his best, but awful when things aren't going well. Just look at his ERA+ marks for his career: 2003 +122, 2004 80, 2005 +111, 2006 +103, 2007 73, 2008 +175.
What does the future hold?
PECOTA comps (excluding right-handers) are Gary Peters, Terry Mulholland, Denny Neagle, John Smiley, Kenny Rogers, Wilbur Wood (PECOTA doesn't account for knuckleballs), Chris Hammond, Jimmy Key, Jerry Koosman, and Jon Matlack. Sim Scores give us addiional parallels to Kirk Rueter, Jarrod Washburn, Dennis Rasmussen, and Tom Browning. All of these guys had moments of success. . .the weakest of the group was Hammond. I always liked Koosman and Matlack a lot.
Given Lee's inconsistency from year to year, I'm not sure about what his durability is going to look like now that he's at age 30. He is an interesting prospect development case however, a good example of strikeout and hit rates indicating big future potential.
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re his inconsistency
is also reminiscent of Oliver Perez, except Oliver has never been as good as Cliff.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Apr 19, 2009 8:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, not exactly
Ollie has never been as good as Lee was in 2008. And he’s three years younger. And had four Double-A starts before seeing significant time in a major league rotation, twelve starts above Low-A before becoming a full time major leaguer. He was rushed. He was 21 when he became a regular. Lee was 24 and had the luxury of a season and a half in the high minors to figure out his stuff. Moreover, I think Lee’s inconsistency from year to year has been greater, while Perez is more just inconsistent from start to start, seemingly having settled into an innings eater strikeout guy who is going to walk a ton of guys but will get out there and give you five innings or more and keep you in the game. I think Lee’s a lot more likely to head back to the minors at some point in the next year or two, while Perez is a lot more likely to improve, if anything, given his age. If you want to judge them through their age 27 seasons, Perez looks like a better bet.
by Fanon on Apr 19, 2009 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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