Bergesen or Niese

by huckleberry on Apr 16, 2009 1:59 PM EDT

i know john has some love for Jon and i hear good things about Brad, too. i believe John put Niese in his book as a B. i've got no idea where he ranked Bergesen. i know neither one is a front of the rotation guy...but which one ends up better long term? career length...peripherals...success in general.

i'm curious where they might rank in terms of ability...at least estimated...with guys like Sean Marshall, Rich Hill, Anthony Reyes, John Danks, too.

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Bergesen

I don’t know much about Niese, so it’s not really fair for me to compare the two, but I’ve seen Bergesen live and have followed him pretty closely the last two years. Bergesen is a sinker slider guy, and as a quick look at his stats will tell you he succeeds by keeping the ball on the ground and not issuing many free passes. While he has gotten results, Orioles minor league pitcher of the year in 2008 and had the best spring of any Oriole starter, many are concerned that his inability to miss bats will translate to him getting hit hard in the bigs. I think best case scenario is that he is a 4.

by Birdfan01 on Apr 16, 2009 2:55 PM EDT reply actions

Bergesen was a C+:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/18/665005/baltimore-orioles-top-20-p

I cant imagine anyone taking him over Niese, and Im not really a fan of Niese.

Goldstein lists Niese’s ceiling as solid four, and I think that’s about right. His fastball isnt great and that really limits his ceiling.

Bergesen has sort of the same ceiling, but is less of a sure thing.

Theyre both pretty unspectacular prospects… both were very hittable in the minors. Ill take Niese because of the great curve and more K’s.

by alskor on Apr 16, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

Alskor

what’s the deal with your boy Big Papi?

by Birdfan01 on Apr 16, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions

He looks terrible

Missing everything and looks uncomfortable.

He looked great and hit for tons of power in the WBC – and off MLB pitchers, not just international dregs. Then came back to Spring Training and was killing the ball, too. Since the season began he’s been simply awful.

I think a good part of it is he’s in decline… but its not a huge deal. He’s got a long way to fall before he’s even an average hitter. Even in this terrible start he’s seeing a ton if pitches every AB and walking… and yesterday he killed a double down the line. In fact, he’s seeing a career high P/PA.

Some people are really down on him, but I think their expectations were silly to begin with. I never expected anything like vintage Ortiz… something like his PECOTA is still awesome (~.270/.375/.500, 27 HRs). That’s what I expected from him and I think there’s a great chance of that still happening. He walks a ton and has big power, but a slower bat is going to mean a drop in AVG. I think people are too focused on what he’s not (ie. vintage Big Papi) instead of what he still is (one of the top hitters at DH and a pretty good weapon in your lineup).

People thought he looked terrible last year, too, but after he came back from the wrist injury (with surgery still needed and it clicking on him) he hit (from July 25th to Sep 28th): .277/.385/.529 (.914) w/ 10 HR in 245 PAs/55 Gs. Yet on talk radio during that time the story was “What’s wrong with Big Papi???” Fact is, he’s never going to be that big bopper again and his slumps will be longer and more pronounced…. BUT he’s still a pretty great hitter, all things considered. We’ll just see more K’s and a lower average… people just need to be more realistic with their expectations.

I wanted Teixeira really badly, though…

What’s wrong with the Red Sox (and Big Papi):
-WBC hang over for Dice K
-Played tough teams: Rays and Angels are really good, A’s are pretty damn good, too
-Home series vs. Rays followed by immediate West Coast swing… bats arent in a rythym
-5 out of 9 starting pitchers faced were Lefties
-Lots of men left on base (10, 10 and 14 LOB in three games, 9, 7 and 7 in other games)… won’t last… just Lowrie and Ortiz sucking and poor luck
-Their run differential is only -8 anyway…
-Lowrie hurt before season began, but stayed in lineup for first few games, batting .056/.150/.056…

by alskor on Apr 16, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions

You guys will be fine

Everyone in the division has their issues-
Yanks- Nady possibly out for the year, A-Rod hurt
Rays- I think they are going to have some serious issues in their pen

I’m hoping the O’s catch you guys at the right time this weekend. Also hoping big papi continues to slump, you trying to do Huff for Bowden?

by Birdfan01 on Apr 16, 2009 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Love Huff...

He was a Hurricane, and I have a soft spot for Canes… my parents both went to the U.

Seems like a great fit, though I doubt they do it, or give up Bowden (who is seemingly underrated someplaces and overrated others). Jeff Bailey and Chris Carter might be able to give you 65% of Huff… so that will probably be enough to not make it worth it.

I wonder if Huff can still play 3B to their liking… (7.6 UZR/150 in 08) that would make him an even better fit. Then again, the O’s are close enough to contending that its now probably uncomfortable for both sides – the O’s did score more runs than the Yanks last year – and hell, they may do it again this year.

by alskor on Apr 16, 2009 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions

O's

Offense looks great, but it is impossible to contend in any division, much less the AL East, when you feel lucky if your 3,4, and 5 starters make it through 5 giving up 3 runs. Simon went 1.1 on tuesday, Hendrickson 3.2 on wednesday. Those starts devastate a bullpen and over the course of 162 games kill a team. The one caveat for the O’s this year is if Hill, by some miracle returns to 2007 form, which case the O’s might be able to hang around .500.

In regards to Huff playing third: I think Youk is a better third baseman

by Birdfan01 on Apr 16, 2009 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Last year:

H9 HR9 BB9 SO9
8.6 0.7 1.8 4.7 Bergesen A+ & AA
8.3 0.5 3.2 7.9 Niese AA & AAA

Bergesen, who is off to a good start this year in AAA (while Niese has struggled some with FB command), may well be a better pitcher right now, but he has less upside. If you are considering this year only, you can debate this, but long term, this really isn’t close. You have to go with Niese, who is a lefty, is a year younger, is two inches taller, has a plus breaking pitch, can stike some people out, and may still have a bit of projection on that fastball.

Niese will struggle right now, because he doesn’t have enough command of that average fastball. For him to reach his potential, he either needs a bit more velocity or movement, or he needs to be able to spot it better. But, with Niese, there’s still some decent chance for one or both of those to happen. John Danks, who you mention, is one example of a guy who improved in this way. According to fangraphs.com, his fastball in 2007 at age 22 averaged 81.5 mph, and he struggled to a 6-13 record and a 5.50 ERA; last year, the FB averaged 91.3, he introduced a cutter, and he reduced his walks as well. Paul Maholm is another who has been successful with a bit less velocity (about 89.5 mph on the FB), only from improving command. Both of these guys struggled initially in the majors. Here are their peripherals from their final minor league season:

H9 HR9 BB9 SO9
8.7 0.5 2.9 7.4 Paul Maholm 2005 (age 23) AA & AAA
9.1 1.4 3.6 9.9 John Danks 2006 (age 21) AA & AAA

I actually like the Paul Maholm comp a bit better for Niese.

by acerimusdux on Apr 16, 2009 3:46 PM EDT reply actions

One Giant +1

you said everything I was thinking

by METSMETSMETS on Apr 16, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions

s/b 89.5

…..his fastball in 2007 at age 22 averaged 89.5 mph…..

by acerimusdux on Apr 16, 2009 3:52 PM EDT reply actions

Bergesen

In the 09 book, Sickels threw out a possible Blackburn-type of career for Bergesen.

by rdf8585 on Apr 16, 2009 4:30 PM EDT reply actions

Thought about it some more...

and while I still think its clear Niese is the better prospect, it might be closer than I initially suggested.

Pro Niese:
-Big K rate advantage
-Has a plus plus pitch in his duece
-Younger

Pro Bergesen:
-Control
-Slight advantage getting GBs.

Bergesen’s lack of K’s is very troubling in terms of how it translates to the majors. That’s really what holds him back. Missing that few bats, he seems incapable of becoming a long term, effective MLB starter. Im thinking if he makes it, its going to be middle relief/spot starter/swingman. Niese has some flaws, but has much more upside(though not exactly great upside). Niese’s K rate is his biggest advantage, but that’s troubling… as guys with good curves often end up unable to translate their K rates to the majors. Especially guys who give up a lot of hits like Niese does.

You know who I think is a good comp for Niese? Garrett Olson. I like Olson, too, and think he can be a nice 4 starter. I see in both Olson and Niese a guy who can fool some teams and look really good some days but get absolutely rocked other days. In fact, Olson has a better fastball than Niese, but Niese’s change could end up decent, negating that edge. Bergesen reminds me of… I dont know… generic minor league pitcher without a great K rate and without a dominating groundball rate. Maybe… Ryan Feierabend with less Ks and better control?

FYI, Bergesen was actually drafted higher than Niese, 4th round (109th overall) vs. 7th round (209th overall). Despite that, Bergesen has never been regarded as highly as Niese from what I can tell… at least after, say their debut seasons…

by alskor on Apr 16, 2009 8:31 PM EDT reply actions

nice work, guys

without ever getting to see these guys a lot of them start to feel like molded players. like there’s 10 picther molds and 10 hitter molds and everyone fits into one. this help ms distinguish what i see when i look at numbers…sort of refines me a little in evaluation. i appreciate the commentary.

http://www.simdynasty.com/index.jsp?refer=mychiefs58

by huckleberry on Apr 16, 2009 11:26 PM EDT reply actions