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2009 Amateur Draft Mock #1 Round Two

Knowing who I've left out until now, here's my second round mock:

 

50. Washington - Matt den Dekker, OF, Florida - After laying down some cool cash on Steven Strasburg and pick #10, who I have being Rich Poythress, it's likely that Washington will have to go fairly conservative with signable picks later on.  den Dekker is a solid college outfielder with good athleticism and will sign for slot.
51. Seattle - Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco HS (CA) - With a transplanted GM, there's no way an accurate prediction can be made at this point.  Hobgood's a solid high school pitcher with a track record.  He has had a great senior season, and has the talent to merit this slot.  If he doesn't go here, it will be somewhere within 10 picks either way.
52. San Diego - Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb - The Padres went heavily college early on last year outside of Jaff Decker, and there's no one in the high school ranks that rivals Decker's ability enough to pry the Pads away from a college pitcher.  Brothers has impressed continually this season, and he's risen to become one of the best college lefties in the entire draft.  Coming from a smaller program means he's available here.
53. Pittsburgh - Josh Phegley, C, Indiana - Another college-centric team lately, the Pirates will be looking for good value after having to spend good money early.  Phegley has hit continually for two years now, and despite questions about his ability to stick behind the plate, he's close to Tony Sanchez in the competition for best college catching prospect.
54. Baltimore - Devan Marrero, SS, American Heritage HS (FL) - This is the range where Baltimore chose Xavier Avery a year ago, and I expect them to look up the middle for high school bats this year.  Marrero rivals first-rounder Jiovanni Mier for best high school shortstop.  He's been under the limelight in a solid high school program, so I expect him to go in the early 2nd round.
55. San Francisco - Blake Smith, OF/RHP, California - Smith is a true two-way player that is capable of handling either role in the pros.  On the mound, he's more of a short-burst reliever with a good fastball, while at the plate, he's got good power, but with a hole in his swing.  Some team will fall in love with his pure talent and nab him near this slot.
56. Los Angeles (NL) - Brooks Raley, LHP, Texas A&M - As much as Logan White likes high school kids, he loves college pitchers at solid value, too.  Josh Lindblom's success will only persuade the Dodgers more that college pitchers can have big upside.  Raley is a nice college lefty worthy of a 2nd round slot.  If his stuff plays up through the conclusion of the season, he might even go higher.
57. Cincinnati - David Holmberg, LHP, Port Charlotte HS (FL) - Some scouts drool over this somewhat projectable lefty.  He has absolute dominated the competition so far in his senior season, and someone will nab him around here.  His fastball isn't spectacular, and his curve isn't spectacular, but he's more polished than your normal high school lefty.  Think Robbie Ross from 2008's draft.
58. Detroit - Ryan Jackson, SS, Miami - Jackson's bat has been questioned for years, and with good reason.  His glove, however, is definitely good enough for him to stick at short all the way up to the majors.  Detroit has gone college early since their Porcello pick 2 years ago, and they value leadership, as seen with their Alex Avila pick a year ago.  Jackson's a great fit.
59. Colorado - Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M - No one has come back from as much adversity on the pitching mound as Wilson in this year's draft.  Having come back from an injury and transfer, Wilson started off in dominating fashion and has been solid since conference play started.  He's a little old, as he'll turn 23 in November, but his stuff is solid.  Nice pick for Colorado.
60. Arizona - Chris Dominguez, 3B, Louisville - Drafted a year ago as a sophomore, Dominguez chose not to sign with the Rockies.  However, he's played himself up a couple of rounds to a team with multiple first and supplemental picks like Arizona.  He's got as good power as anyone in the college ranks, but strikes out too much.  Will sign at slot or below.
61. Chicago (AL) - Robert Stock, C/RHP, USC - What position Stock will be drafted at remainds to be seen.  He's one of the better college catchers in the entire draft, but his arm will be tempting for teams as well.  His bat has been a major question mark this year, while his pitching has taken a step forward.  I'll probably reverse the position order I list here in my next mock, but for now, he's an average 2nd round college catching prospect.
62. Texas - Trent Stevenson, RHP, Brophy College Prep HS (AZ) - Stevenson has continued on his mild success on the showcase circuit with a great senior year.  It's likely that putting him here is a little too high, but he's a big kid at 6'5'' with some projectability, meaning a team like Texas, who will have no rush to get him going, might take a flier on him and sign him away from the U. of Arizona.
63. Cleveland - Mike Belfiore, RHP, Boston College - College closer anyone?  Belfiore has been the fastest-rising college closer in the country this season, as he's dominated the competition.  He's got solid stuff, so he's not just fooling college hitters.  Someone will take him in this range, if not higher.
64. Arizona - Mike Nesseth, RHP, Nebraska - Nebraska has really messed around a little too much with the talented Nesseth this year, but he's still a solid draft prospect.  Arizona will be on its seventh pick by now, and if a solid college pitcher is on the board here like Nesseth, I expect them to pounce.
65. Los Angeles (NL) - Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Forest HS (FL) - Sampson is the type of high school pick that you make on pure projection, not just on what he has now.  He's got a solid fastball with mediocre offspeed stuff, but he's done the showcase circuit and might even be an impact reliever if he doesn't pan out as a starter.  A great project for someone like the Dodgers.
66. Florida - Chad Thompson, RHP, El Toro HS (CA) - For some reason, I just see Thompson fitting into Florida's scheme really well.  He's played stiff competition, has quality stuff, and his Arizona State commitment shouldn't scare the Marlins away.  He's a nice 2nd round pick, one I expect the Marlins to make if he's available.
67. St. Louis - Cole White, RHP, New Mexico - Another college closer?  This is more the range where I think college closers will come off the board compared to last year's first round rush.  White has been great for the Lobos so far, and has a nice fastball-slider mix, something appealing to teams that want fast returns.  BA says he sings, too.
68. Toronto - AJ Morris, RHP, Kansas State - This kid's arm should be falling off come June from his workload, but he's held up against some serious competition in the Big 12.  In a conference with Andy Oliver, Mike Nesseth, Brooks Raley, Alex Wilson, and other future draft studs, Morris has pretty much been the best of the bunch.  Toronto would be happy to land him with their 2nd round pick.
69. Houston - Jonathan Walsh, C, Coppell HS (TX) - Granted, I haven't gotten a great handle on Bobby Heck's philosophy as scouting director yet, but he picked some nice high school players last year.  Walsh is not only holding his own in the deep high school catching class this year, but is also a Texas boy, something teams do favor, even if they don't tell you so.
70. Minnesota - Scott Griggs, RHP, San Ramon HS (CA) - Griggs could easily be into the 15th round by June, but he hasn't quite fallen that far yet.  Control problems plagued him early on, but he's turned it around a little, though he hasn't been as dominating as he should be.  If anyone can fix him, it's the Twins, and I have a feeling he's on their radar.
71. Chicago (AL) - Ryan Wheeler, 1B, Loyola Marymount - On a Marymount with multiple draft prospects, Wheeler's been arguably the best.  Keith Law doesn't like his bat, but he has been hitting, just not with the authority you'd expect from a 6'4'', 220 pound first baseman.  He'll go in this range, maybe in the early 3rd, on both his hitting tool and his pure size.
72. New York (NL) - Ben Paulsen, 1B, Clemson - Yes, I know the Mets picked Ike Davis last year.  However, Paulsen is an intriguing hitter who has heated up the past few weeks enough to merit a 2nd-3rd round choice.  He's a level below someone like a Rich Poythress, but if Davis can play the outfield and Paulsen can play first, they will be solid contributors to the Mets offense.
73. Milwaukee - LeVon Washington, OF, Buchholz HS (FL) - With the first of two back-to-back picks, I expect the Brewers to pair a hitter with a pitcher.  Washington is incredibly fast, and will take time to reach his potential, but he's a nice late 2nd round pick.  He might take a little extra money to sign, as he's committed to Florida, but I think he'll go pro.
74. Milwaukee - Beau Wright, LHP, Los Alamitos HS (CA) - Wright was BA's 29th ranked high school prospect entering the year, and I haven't seen anything to dissuade me from thinking of him as a late 2nd to mid 3rd type of guy.  Lefty high school pitchers with upside are always a rare commodity, and he'll go somewhere in this area.
75. Philadelphia - Jeff Malm, 1B, Bishop Gorman HS (NV) - Finally, the Phillies get their first pick of the day.  With a new scouting director and GM, who knows what they'll do?  Malm doesn't exactly fit in line with their hyper-athletic type of drafting we've seen lately, but he's a nice high school bat who has been hitting his way up the boards.  The Phillies would be lucky if he's still available at this slot.
76. New York (AL) - David Hale, RHP, Princeton - Is anyone thinking that the Yankees didn't sign Gerrit Cole and Scott Bittle on purpose so they'd have some picks this year?  As their second compensation pick, with money to spare and a nice high school righty locked up, look for New York to go a little above slot again.  Hale's a junior at Princeton, so he'll be tough to sign, but he's athletic and worth the money.
77. Boston - Chad James, LHP, Bishop Verot HS (FL) - Yeah, I have no idea which direction the Red Sox will go here.  There will be a huge variance of opinion on talent levels at this point in the draft, but James will be one of the few highly thought of pitchers still available.  He was rated right between Matt Davidson and Austin Maddox by BA before the season, but has been normal so far.
78. Tampa Bay - Reggie Williams, OF, Brooks-Debartolo HS (FL) - All I know about this kid is that he must be freaking fast.  He's described as toolsy by everyone, and he's a nice little hitter so far.  However, the thing that stands out is his 41 steals through 12 early season games.  That's perfect for a Rays system that's lacking the higher-upside tools kids in the lower minors outside of Desmond Jennings, who's now in AA.
79. Chicago (NL) - Ryan Ortiz, C, Oregon State - Though most scouts think Ortiz won't be able to stick full-time behind the plate, he's still a nice draft prospect with his athleticism.  I've seen at least one Eli Marrero comparison, and Ortiz could definitely carve out a career in that mold.  He doesn't hit for much power at all, but he's the Beavers' leading hitter and has a nice eye.
80. Los Angeles (AL) - Geno Escalante, C, Fairfield HS (CA) - When all else fails, go with the in-state product.  Escalante has been mentioned in the same breath as Austin Maddox, an East Coast comp.  However, he hasn't gotten as much of the national attention, meaning he'll likely be available at this slot.  He's the last of the top high school catchers I expect to go before round four or so.

 

And that's it, my second round mock.  I don't plan on going into the third round just yet, but I'll probably start that up when my next mock comes out in a couple weeks.  I plan on releasing new ones every two weeks if that's alright with you guys.  Just remember, this is a general outline of where kids are projected to go based on a half-season of information.  Guys can move any direction at any moment's notice.  Signability will become much more clear as the draft gets close.

 

How's it look?

Comment 11 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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In Callis' recent chat

he said that Rex Brothers is probably going to be in the first round.

by Birdfan01 on Apr 16, 2009 2:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I saw that.

There’s a lot of baseball left to be played, and I think he might end up in the supplemental first. He’s not a true first rounder, though for some teams he might be that high on their board. He’s one of those guys that might be top 20 to some teams and not even top 50 to others.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 16, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

I find these very interesting

but, sadly, Im unqualified to comment intelligently on them.

by alskor on Apr 16, 2009 3:22 PM EDT reply actions  

same here

each year, i tell myself, i’m going to try and follow the mlb draft with as much interest as I have in the nfl draft. Just too hard to keep up for me, but excellent job by the OP.

I am not so sold that the Cubs would go C this early in the draft. With Soto/Castillo/Clevenger in the upper levels, plus Cerda/Perez in the lower levels, along with guys like Luis Flores and Michael Brenly, catcher is one of the deeper spots in the system.

But you never know. We went heavy on college arms last year, after being top heavy in 07 with positional pieces. With some young international pieces in the lower levels, I’m hoping the Cubs go after power arms (well … who isn’t hoping their team adds power arms, sort of a dumb statement, but eh) or power prospects (as we are quite short on that).

by toonsterwu on Apr 16, 2009 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kudos

Kudos on the whole undertaking – I look forward to your next take

by ofsticksandbats on Apr 17, 2009 10:55 AM EDT reply actions  

Bobby Heck

First off, good job on the mock.

As for Heck, I’ve picked up a few things from his background, early track record, and chats he’s participated in. You’re right that he’s not afraid to take HS players. He took a lot of them early in last year’s draft. Athleticism is a priority. Finding players up the middle is an emphasis, also. Given equal talent, taller pitchers are preferred. He was a Crosschecker under Jack Zduriencik, so he’s not afraid to go against “convention.”

That said, I don’t know that they would use a second-round pick on a catcher after going with Castro in the 1st-round last year. You go with BPA at that point, but the club is really high on Castro and they have enough talent at the upper levels at that position that they would probably be better off going with a player at a different position at that point, unless it’s a guy they really like. I don’t know how much weight Heck places on drafting locally, so I don’t know if that will play a factor. They were able to use that connection to land Seaton and Dydalewicz, but I don’t know if they plan to make a habit of that or if those situations were anomalies.

by astrosfan76 on Apr 17, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Thanks for the input.

I can tell you I was considering Scott Griggs, Beau Wright, Chad James, LeVon Washington, and Reggie Williams before deciding on Walsh. In a scenario where you want the best player available, you still have some consideration of your organizational depth. However, with Castro already on the far side of AA when Walsh would be starting low A ball, it wouldn’t be any sort of problem. On the contrary, drafting high school catchers with a solid catching prospect a few levels ahead can allow a team to take their time with the younger, higher-upside player. Walsh’s catching has received warm, but not great reviews everywhere I’ve read about it, and I’ve seen at least one mention that he could slide to a corner infield spot, maybe even being an above-average third baseman defensively. He’s got a good arm and is athletic for a catcher. The one actual scouting report I’ve seen on him rates him at 50 as a runner, 60 on the arm.

For those reasons, I really think it makes sense to go for him. Last I checked, he was committed to Texas, so there’s good reason to think that one of the Texas teams would have to take him to sign him away from that commitment. If they don’t, I could see him falling quickly to the 10-15 round range, someone offering him above-slot money, but he still decides to go to school. Being a Longhorn in the state of Texas is a big deal as you know, but the Astros or Rangers could convince him otherwise.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 17, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any Guess

As to where Strasburg’s fellow San Diego State teamate Erik Castro (3B/C) will go in the draft?

I was at the game they played in PETCO and his bat looked pretty impressive. He hit two home runs on that day and has 7 on the year with a 1.136 OPS.

by El Hombre on Apr 21, 2009 4:49 AM EDT reply actions  

Another guy I was impressed with

after catching a game in Irvine is UCI’s left handed starter Daniel Bibona. Any idea where he will land?

2009 – 2.21 ERA, 64/14 K/BB, 61 IP

2008 – 3.08 ERA, 97/21 K/BB 102.1 IP

by El Hombre on Apr 21, 2009 4:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

Can't really make a guess on either at this point.

Neither has any sort of plus thing going for them, and college players put up good numbers all over the place, so we’ll see where they go come June. I might be able to make an educated guess after their seasons are completely over.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 21, 2009 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

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