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2009 Amateur Draft Mock #1 Supplemental

Here is a continuation of my first round mock from yesterday.  I plan on putting out my 2nd round mock tomorrow.  Here are picks 33-49 as I see them now.

 

33. Seattle - Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt - Minor has the college polish most teams want in a lefty draft prospect.  His pure stuff doesn't rate quite high enough to be a true first rounder, but he's a perfect supplemental pick.
34. Colorado - Kentrail Davis, OF, Tennessee - Davis has not had the type of college season to deserve a first round slot, but his upside deserves an early supplemental slot.  There's a good chance he falls farther, as draft-eligible sophomores with question marks fall faster than juniors due to signability issues.
35. Arizona - DJ LeMahieu, SS, LSU - This is a very possible, yet questionable pick.  LeMahieu started off the season on fire, but has quickly fallen out of any first round consideration.  Someone will take him this early on talent alone, but it's possible that he, like Davis, will fall as far as the 3rd or 4th round with a mediocre finish to the season.
36. Los Angeles (NL) - Tommy Joseph, C, Horizon HS (AZ) - Another one of the talented high school catching crop, Joseph has played his way into first round consideration.  If he's still here when the Dodgers' first overall pick comes around, expect him to be nabbed by Logan White.
37. Toronto - Brett Jackson, OF, California - Jackson fits the bill of a high-upside college outfielder who has just enough faults to fall out of the first round.  His toolset makes him the most intriguing college outfielder, but at the plate, he can sometimes be overmatched by inferior pitching.  He'll strike out like Drew Stubbs did early on, but Toronto has time to work with him.
38. Chicago (AL) - Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State - Tootle profiles as a reliever long-term, but his pure stuff is good enough to be picked this high.  The White Sox have been going the college route heavily over the last couple of years, and Tootle fits the profile well.
39. Milwaukee - James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky - Paxton has the pure stuff of a first rounder, but the results haven't quite gotten there.  In that manner, he reminds me a little bit of Evan Frederickson of the 2008 draft, who Milwaukee grabbed at #35 overall a year ago.  With a new scouting director, this is tough to predict, but Paxton won't fall out of the supplemental round if he stays healthy.
40. Los Angeles (AL) - Jake Marisnick, OF, Riverside Poly HS (CA) - Marisnick is an athletic freak, but generally lacks polish.  That's typical of most high school outfielders, but Marisnick's talent alone is top 15 material.  His season has been good, not great, but being a top 40 pick is close to a certainty.
41. Arizona - Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC) - The latest sensation in the high school catching crop, Myers at worst is a 2nd round talent.  Arizona will be on their 4th pick by this point, and will be thinking long-term development, meaning high school should be the operative words.
42. Los Angeles (AL) - Sam Dyson, RHP, South Carolina - This is also Los Angeles' 4th pick, but I expect them to go a different direction after spending their last two picks on high schoolers.  Dyson has a huge fastball, but with mixed results and his status as a draft-eligible sophomore, he is a supplemental guy.
43. Cincinnati - Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College - Sanchez has made himself into the top college catcher in a weak year for college catching.  The best part about Sanchez is that he profiles to stay behind the plate.  His bat has been quite alive so far too, and coming from a cold weather college program, I'd expect he'll surprise some people.  Cincinnati will be thinking value here.
44. Texas - Robbie Shields, SS, Florida Southern - Shields has been one of the more disappointing draft prospects this year, but I don't see him falling out of the top 50.  His bat might take some time to come around, but he does profile to stay in the middle of the diamond, whether at second or short.  Texas should be thinking about either high school pitching or college hitting in this slot.
45. Arizona - Brad Boxberger, RHP, USC - Boxberger's got plenty of pure stuff, and he's improved his control little by little throughout the season.  If he does stay on the board this long, Arizona will be all over him, as he might reach the majors quickly as a reliever.  There's not more you can ask of your 5th pick.
46. Minnesota - Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State - With its supplemental picks, Minnesota generally likes value.  Kipnis fits that mold perfectly.  Despite being a college hitter, he fits perfectly into Minnesota's offensive style, and comes with the added bonus of being able to move quickly.  He'll sign either at slot or below, so that guarantees someone like the Twins can afford him.
47. Milwaukee - Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS (NJ) - Trout is someone who has created a little buzz early on, and having gotten a later start than the warmer weather prospects, he might go even higher than this.  If Milwaukee wants to go the long-term route with their 3rd pick, this is the perfect guy to go with.  New scouting director, possibly new direction.
48. Los Angeles (AL) - Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford - Storen has moved himself up into the supplemental round with a good season in relief.  There has been some speculation that he'll go higher than Jason Stoffel, but the difference in their pure stuff is enough for Stoffel to hold his place.  This is a great spot for the Angels to look for value, as this is their 5th pick.
49. Pittsburgh - Scott Bittle, RHP, Ole Miss - A 2nd round pick a year ago, Bittle has helped his stock with a transition to starting a few weeks ago.  He's got the mix of a reliever, so I don't expect anyone to keep him in a starting role, but he's shown the ability to get hitters out with multiple pitches, always a good sign.  Pittsburgh will be picking again 4 spots after this, so they'll go with the signable Bittle here, as they get no compensation for failing to sign the player they choose at this slot.

 

So that's the supplemental round.  Notable ommissions include Josh Phegley, Beau Wright, Jonathan Walsh, Ryan Wheeler, Matt den Dekker, and Rex Brothers.  All are in my second round mock.  Because of signability issues, high schoolers are tougher to predict, and failing to sign a supplemental round guy results in no compensation the following year.  6 of 16 supplemental picks a year ago were high schoolers, and it's possible that more than the 4 I predicted will be in it again this year.

What do you think?

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I'm writing all this down...

so that I can relentlessly mock you in June when the draft goes completely astray of your predictions. j/k :D

A very ambitious project, I think it’s awesome that you know all of these players well enough to talk intelligently about them. I applaud your efforts.

We don't devote nearly enough scientific research to finding a cure for jerks. - Calvin

by solace on Apr 15, 2009 1:16 PM EDT reply actions  

It's just one big wild guess...

I’d be surprised if I’m right on 5 of the first 50 picks from this first mock when June rolls around. Just giving people some idea of who’s out there and where they might go. It’s fun.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Any Over-Slot guys for this draft?

Who signs over-slot, a la Westmoreland? I know that is tough to guess, but it would be fun to take a shot.

by asyouwish33 on Apr 15, 2009 1:29 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm assuming you mean guys with 1st round talent who will drop like Westmoreland did?

Scott Griggs was struggled a bit and is committed to UCLA. Very good talent as a RHP.

Chad James is a LHP that’s committed to Oklahoma State. Questionable on the 1st round talent part, though.

As I mentioned in my 1st round mock, Madison Younginer’s commitment to Clemson is pretty strong, but someone will pay him early.

Jacob Turner might be this year’s Tim Melville. He’s committed to UNC.

Bobby Borchering could become the Westmoreland of this draft. He’s committed to Florida.

LeVon Washington also fits that bill and is committed to Florida.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2009 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Barring signability concerns

I can’t see the chances of Kentrail Davis getting out of the top 15-20 of the draft being any more than 1-5 percent.
No way, NO WAY, he is available in the supplemental round.

That is just my opinion, but pull up this post come draft day and I feel I’ll be right.

by nms on Apr 15, 2009 1:37 PM EDT reply actions  

With Davis, you can't ignore his huge weaknesses.

This is a kid who strikes out too much, hits the ball with too little authority quite often, and hasn’t turned his speed into game production. He’s basically a 21 year old high school outfielder. The talent is definitely there, but to say that teams will ignore his huge flaws is misleading. He’s got to turn it around quickly against some good SEC pitching if he’s to be a 1st rounder with all the college pitching and some good high school pitching and catching out there in the late first. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes back to school after falling more than people think.

By the way, he’s a Boras client. That will have its own affect.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2009 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Also

I’m not sure if saying the “results haven’t been there” for Paxton is generally accurate. Looking at his season stats, that looks to be true, but those are thrown way WAY off by just a couple starts… especially the one against (I think) S Carolina where the wind was going crazy and he gave up a ton of runs all at once. Generally he has been a very effective starter.
I’m not sure if the Evan Fredrickson comp is fair bc Fredrickson had real trouble throwing strikes. Paxton doesn’t seem to have issues in that dept. His K/BB isvery good.

by nms on Apr 15, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Paxton's last few outings haven't been up to his early season standard.

Yes, the South Carolina outing throws off his overall stats, but he’s been hit a fair bit by both Ole Miss and Georgia. Indiana State also beat the heck out of him in early March. There’s been talk that a knee issue has led to him not being able to really let loose, which is why I said “if healthy” at the end of the writeup. If he turns it back around, including a dominant start or two, he’s in the back end of the 1st round. That’s a big “if.”

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2009 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wil Meyers as a catcher is interesting

When I saw him in HS and showcases he was 1b/3b.

He doesn’t really have a catcher’s frame (kind of tall) but does throw well and could be enough of a ballplayer to handle catching.. at least while young. It is an intriguing thought.

He does have some raw power though, for sure

by nms on Apr 15, 2009 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Really nice job overall

Obviously the chances of it shaking on like this are slim to none lol

I wouldnt be surpirsed is Tony Sanchez is a guy some team in the first round jumps on for signability reasons.

by jsmall404 on Apr 15, 2009 3:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Agree on both statements.

Like I said in reply to a comment above, I’d be surprised if I line up right on 5 of the first 50 come June when comparing it to this mock. They will be much more accurate as time goes along, especially as we get deeper into the college season. Big-time college programs have kids jump like crazy due to their play in conference tournaments and the NCAA tournament, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few guys really jump up.

As for Sanchez, I’ve seen a bit of talk that he could make it into the first, but I don’t see that happening. Most of the later picking teams have cash, with Boston, New York, and the Cubs all being there, and Tampa Bay isn’t shy with draft spending. Seattle also is sound financially. Colorado could go in any direction, but when you’re drafting a lower ceiling college catcher, you have to look at the catching depth in your system, and Colorado has that already. But who knows, you could be right.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 15, 2009 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm the same way

5 out of the first round would be good I would say. Closer to draft time, I’m going to do a top 100 and try to predict 70 of the top 100 correctly, in no particular order.

http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/

by Matt Garrioch on Apr 15, 2009 8:10 PM EDT reply actions  

The Rockies

There are very few dedicated Rockies fans that post on this blog, so I thought I would make a quick comment to help you out with their draft philosophy. With their two first rounders, you have them picking two high schoolers, one of whom is a pitcher. The Rockies have not selected a HS pitcher in the first round since the Matt Harrington debacle in 2008. They have not selected a HS player in the first round since 2004. Last year, they did not take a HS player period until round 14. I am definitely not nitpicking – just trying to give you some insight using recent draft history that says most likely a minimum of one of those two picks will be a college player, and probably a pitcher (as much as I would love for them to get an impact bat). Also, they selected Kentrail Davis out of HS, in the 14th round I believe. Bill Schmidt doesn’t usually mess around with re-drafts. I would not expect Davis to be the supplemental selection. Just my two cents trying to help you out getting them right. I admire your dedication. Good luck!

by Prospector on Apr 16, 2009 12:15 AM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, I considered both points.

At this point, there’s such a wide variance between the slots that draft prospects are valued at in this draft. I think the vast majority of scouting directors are scrambling for players to fill slots like #32 where the Rockies first pick. For that reason, I think we’ll see a good number of teams deviate from what we might usually see from them, as they’ll be nabbing the higher-ceiling guys more. The lower floor guys in this draft have unusually low ceilings. At #32 on my mock, I was really considering Mike Minor. However, almost everything we’re seeing about him lately is that he’s solid, yet unspectacular, and profiles as a #4 type guy at best. That’s nice, but I don’t think the Rockies will necessarily be so close-minded that they’ll ignore a better player, especially with a good group of college prospects in their system already and a young core.

We’ll also likely see a slight bump in Latin American spending this year as a result of both a weak draft and economy. How that affects a team like the Rockies specifically we won’t know until after the July 2 signing period. If they do go cheaper with college talent, I expect a little bump with Latin American talent, but not much. That being said, unless the Rockies feel like there will be a Delta Cleary-type kid waiting for them near the end of the draft, there’s a good chance you’ll see them go high school a bit higher than usual. This college crop, especially the hitters, are that bad.

And I knew about Davis, but it was also one of those ones where I think they’ll put aside their normal rigidity for the betterment of the club. There’s such a low chance any of these guys are picked where they are on this board as it is now anyway. Just my personal opinion of how things might turn out in a strange year like this.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 16, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

some team signing Grudz would be nice

would be nice to slot in at #44 to make up for the signing of Cruz.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Apr 16, 2009 12:27 AM EDT reply actions  

It would be #49, not 44.

Pittsburgh is the automatic last pick of the supplemental round, as they didn’t sign Tanner Scheppers at #48 last year. They’re right behind all the compensation picks, but are the first pick right after, so they’d slide to 50.

by Andy Seiler on Apr 16, 2009 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions  

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