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2009 Amateur Draft Mock #1 Supplemental

Here is a continuation of my first round mock from yesterday.  I plan on putting out my 2nd round mock tomorrow.  Here are picks 33-49 as I see them now.

 

33. Seattle - Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt - Minor has the college polish most teams want in a lefty draft prospect.  His pure stuff doesn't rate quite high enough to be a true first rounder, but he's a perfect supplemental pick.
34. Colorado - Kentrail Davis, OF, Tennessee - Davis has not had the type of college season to deserve a first round slot, but his upside deserves an early supplemental slot.  There's a good chance he falls farther, as draft-eligible sophomores with question marks fall faster than juniors due to signability issues.
35. Arizona - DJ LeMahieu, SS, LSU - This is a very possible, yet questionable pick.  LeMahieu started off the season on fire, but has quickly fallen out of any first round consideration.  Someone will take him this early on talent alone, but it's possible that he, like Davis, will fall as far as the 3rd or 4th round with a mediocre finish to the season.
36. Los Angeles (NL) - Tommy Joseph, C, Horizon HS (AZ) - Another one of the talented high school catching crop, Joseph has played his way into first round consideration.  If he's still here when the Dodgers' first overall pick comes around, expect him to be nabbed by Logan White.
37. Toronto - Brett Jackson, OF, California - Jackson fits the bill of a high-upside college outfielder who has just enough faults to fall out of the first round.  His toolset makes him the most intriguing college outfielder, but at the plate, he can sometimes be overmatched by inferior pitching.  He'll strike out like Drew Stubbs did early on, but Toronto has time to work with him.
38. Chicago (AL) - Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State - Tootle profiles as a reliever long-term, but his pure stuff is good enough to be picked this high.  The White Sox have been going the college route heavily over the last couple of years, and Tootle fits the profile well.
39. Milwaukee - James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky - Paxton has the pure stuff of a first rounder, but the results haven't quite gotten there.  In that manner, he reminds me a little bit of Evan Frederickson of the 2008 draft, who Milwaukee grabbed at #35 overall a year ago.  With a new scouting director, this is tough to predict, but Paxton won't fall out of the supplemental round if he stays healthy.
40. Los Angeles (AL) - Jake Marisnick, OF, Riverside Poly HS (CA) - Marisnick is an athletic freak, but generally lacks polish.  That's typical of most high school outfielders, but Marisnick's talent alone is top 15 material.  His season has been good, not great, but being a top 40 pick is close to a certainty.
41. Arizona - Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC) - The latest sensation in the high school catching crop, Myers at worst is a 2nd round talent.  Arizona will be on their 4th pick by this point, and will be thinking long-term development, meaning high school should be the operative words.
42. Los Angeles (AL) - Sam Dyson, RHP, South Carolina - This is also Los Angeles' 4th pick, but I expect them to go a different direction after spending their last two picks on high schoolers.  Dyson has a huge fastball, but with mixed results and his status as a draft-eligible sophomore, he is a supplemental guy.
43. Cincinnati - Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College - Sanchez has made himself into the top college catcher in a weak year for college catching.  The best part about Sanchez is that he profiles to stay behind the plate.  His bat has been quite alive so far too, and coming from a cold weather college program, I'd expect he'll surprise some people.  Cincinnati will be thinking value here.
44. Texas - Robbie Shields, SS, Florida Southern - Shields has been one of the more disappointing draft prospects this year, but I don't see him falling out of the top 50.  His bat might take some time to come around, but he does profile to stay in the middle of the diamond, whether at second or short.  Texas should be thinking about either high school pitching or college hitting in this slot.
45. Arizona - Brad Boxberger, RHP, USC - Boxberger's got plenty of pure stuff, and he's improved his control little by little throughout the season.  If he does stay on the board this long, Arizona will be all over him, as he might reach the majors quickly as a reliever.  There's not more you can ask of your 5th pick.
46. Minnesota - Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State - With its supplemental picks, Minnesota generally likes value.  Kipnis fits that mold perfectly.  Despite being a college hitter, he fits perfectly into Minnesota's offensive style, and comes with the added bonus of being able to move quickly.  He'll sign either at slot or below, so that guarantees someone like the Twins can afford him.
47. Milwaukee - Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS (NJ) - Trout is someone who has created a little buzz early on, and having gotten a later start than the warmer weather prospects, he might go even higher than this.  If Milwaukee wants to go the long-term route with their 3rd pick, this is the perfect guy to go with.  New scouting director, possibly new direction.
48. Los Angeles (AL) - Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford - Storen has moved himself up into the supplemental round with a good season in relief.  There has been some speculation that he'll go higher than Jason Stoffel, but the difference in their pure stuff is enough for Stoffel to hold his place.  This is a great spot for the Angels to look for value, as this is their 5th pick.
49. Pittsburgh - Scott Bittle, RHP, Ole Miss - A 2nd round pick a year ago, Bittle has helped his stock with a transition to starting a few weeks ago.  He's got the mix of a reliever, so I don't expect anyone to keep him in a starting role, but he's shown the ability to get hitters out with multiple pitches, always a good sign.  Pittsburgh will be picking again 4 spots after this, so they'll go with the signable Bittle here, as they get no compensation for failing to sign the player they choose at this slot.

 

So that's the supplemental round.  Notable ommissions include Josh Phegley, Beau Wright, Jonathan Walsh, Ryan Wheeler, Matt den Dekker, and Rex Brothers.  All are in my second round mock.  Because of signability issues, high schoolers are tougher to predict, and failing to sign a supplemental round guy results in no compensation the following year.  6 of 16 supplemental picks a year ago were high schoolers, and it's possible that more than the 4 I predicted will be in it again this year.

What do you think?

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