Tommy Hanson and Fly Balls...

by tt68 on Apr 15, 2009 11:05 AM EDT Comment 18 comments

It seems like the only complaint we hear about Tommy Hanson is his poor (assuming a high GB/FB=good) fly ball/gb rate. So far this year he is continuing this trend with an early .5. Last year his rate was .71. My question is why is his rate so low? What is it about the way that he pitches that he has such an extreme rate?

Currently there is one pitcher in the majors that gets very good results with a low rate, Chris Young. Most attribute that to Petco, which is easily defendable based on his splits from 2007 and 2008, but in 2006 Young was significantly better away from Petco. Anyway, one common thing between these two pitchers is that they are both very tall (though Young is 5 inches taller than Hanson). Does height have something to do with flyball rates and how much is this going to hurt Hanson once he reaches the big leagues?

0 recs | Comment 18 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

RE

has has given up 9 HR is in his last 152 innings lol.

Also, in AA his HR/AIR % was only 6.

I know the easy thing to do it say he is giving up fly balls in the minors so some will turn into HRs against better hitting, but this is a non issue. Plus, he will be playing in a good pitchers park.

by jsmall404 on Apr 15, 2009 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nope.

No pitcher is able to consistently control his HR/FB%. It’s not a non-issue. Major leaguers hit a lot more HRs than minor leaguers, and a low HR/FB ratio over one season is absolutely not sustainable.

It’s not a huge issue, because a guy who can miss a ton of bats can be very successful even if he gives up a lot of fly balls, but it’s an issue.

by slamcactus on Apr 15, 2009 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is that true?

That maxim about HR/FB% doesn’t sound true to me. Different pitchers can have pretty disparate career HR/FB #s. For instance, Brett Myers’ career rate is 15.3, but Matt Cain’s is 6.4.

by aCone419 on Apr 15, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The also play in two extremely different ballparks.

Anything hit in the air in Philly seems to sneak out some nights. While SF is about the best pitchers park in the league.

I think with Tommy though, it’ll just be a think where even if his HR/9 rate isn’t that good it shouldn’t hurt him, because for the most part, there won’t be anyone on base when they’re hit.

Tommy Hanson 4 ROY

by timmy3 on Apr 15, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not really

AT&T is a slight hitters park overall (102, same as Citizen’s Bank) . I’ll grant the premise that Philly is somewhat more homer friendly, but I don’t buy that a fly ball is more than twice as likely to be a home run their. That’s silly.

by aCone419 on Apr 15, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brett Myers

give up that many because he sucks lol not because he is a fly ball pitcher. I would imagine his line drive % is also high.

by jsmall404 on Apr 15, 2009 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Myers

He has been almost exactly league average for his career. His LD% is also middle of the pack at 20.5%.

by aCone419 on Apr 15, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

HR/FB normalizes for pitchers around 11%. The Fangraphs guys are better versed in the numbers than I am, but look at the guys whose career rate bucks the trend, and you’ll still see wide variance. It’s a luck-based indicator, not a repeatable skill.

Cain’s only pitched 4 seasons, and his rate has fluctuated in those years. A 6% HR in 150 minor league innings is an indication of absolutely nothing.

by slamcactus on Apr 15, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

pop-ups

Don’t some guys give up more pop-ups and not moonshots?

by wobatus on Apr 15, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, again, I disagree

What is the evidence behind this? I’m not saying I know your wrong, but this doesn’t pass the smell test. I’d like to see something more than an assertion that it is “luck.”

That 6.4% HR/FB is in 660 MLB IP, not 150 MiLB IP. And it has “fluctuated” between 5.5 and 7.1. I respectfully maintain my skepticism.

by aCone419 on Apr 15, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the litmus test for Hanson was Arizona. I don’t think he gave up 1 homer in the AFL and if his fly ball rate was going to catch up to him anywhere it would have been there.

by yondaime4 on Apr 15, 2009 8:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

scratch that. He gave up 1 homer in 28 innings.

by yondaime4 on Apr 15, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jeez

Litmus test? Only if you think 28 innings is a valid indicator of anything.

by Flynn Blake on Apr 15, 2009 10:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

the litmus test will be several years of major league performance.

by slamcactus on Apr 16, 2009 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You realize what a test is for, no?

It’s so you know what to expect going forward. What you just said is, “We’ll know if Hanson will give up too many home runs after he’s been in the majors for a while and we’ve seen if he gave up too many home runs.”

As far as analysis goes, that’s useless.

by mraver on Apr 16, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hanson

His GB/FB ratio might be bad but when your striking out a hitter per inning there are just going to be less balls in play. If someone strikes out 50 in 100 innings they have 50 more balls put into play than someone who strikes out 100 in 100 innings. Maybe we should combine when ground balls and strikeouts in comparison to fly balls.

by cajunrevenge on Apr 16, 2009 1:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

no one

contests that high strikeout flyball pitchers can be successful. johan santana doesn’t have a good GB%, and he’s been the most dominant pitcher of the decade. It’s just that the combination of ground balls and strikeouts allow for much more consistent success for the guys who aren’t Johan Santana.

by slamcactus on Apr 16, 2009 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs