2009 Amateur Draft Mock #1

This is the first installment of my mock drafts to come between now and June 9.  There's obviously some movement that will occur between now and then, so don't be alarmed by what you see.  I'm pretty sure you will all be pretty shocked by who I have at #10, but keep in mind that Washington is projected to pay 8 figures to Steven Strasburg, meaning an economical college pick is quite likely for their next pick.  Without further ado, here's my mock:

1. Washington - Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State - This is an obvious choice.  I expect negotiations into mid-July and a month in the Majors.
2. Seattle - Dustin Ackley, 1B-CF, North Carolina - You know it's a tricky draft when there's no one that profiles as a true #2 pick.  Ackley has added good pop this year, and while he hasn't been able to get back out to center field, there's still some chance of that happening in the long-term.  Having a John Olerud-type first baseman isn't bad either.
3. San Diego - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - Matzek is the most polished of the high-profile high school pitchers, but he doesn't necessarily have the best arm.  That being said, he'll probably go highest due to his advanced arsenal and extensive history.
4. Pittsburgh - Alex White, RHP, North Carolina - White has been on the prospect radar for quite awhile now, and his junior year has been good enough to keep him in the top 5.  Pittsburgh has a histroy with college pitchers, and one can only hope the huge workload at UNC won't catch up to him.
5. Baltimore - Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats - Crow is one of the unknowns at this point, as he hasn't even taken the mound yet in Indy ball.  On pure stuff, he's second behind Strasburg, but the layoff might hurt him.  However, it's a weaker draft than 2008, so he'll likely slot higher with a solid run in Ft. Worth.
6. San Francisco - Grant Green, SS, USC - Green was projected as high as #2 entering the season, but fielding problems and a lack of development in the power department has hurt him.  Granted, he's still one of the hottest hitters in college baseball at the moment, but it will take some hard work to guarantee a top 5 spot come June.
7. Atlanta - Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA) - This almost seems too obvious.  The Braves have an affinity for players from their own state, and the only question here to me is whether they go with Tate or a high school arm.  They're very proficient selecting high school arms in the later rounds, so I think they go with the huge upside of Tate, signing him away from his UNC commitment.
8. Cincinnati - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri - Gibson has been better than any college pitcher not named Strasburg this year, and that has launched him firmly into the top ten.  However, he's not very refined for a college pitcher, and lingering questions about his mechanics means he's behind White and Crow, at least for now.
9. Detroit - Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX) - Miller might have the best pure arm of any high school pitcher in the 2009 draft, and Detroit's not shy with its love of flamethrowers like him.  He's got true ace potential, but with less refinement than his high school counterparts expected to go in Round 1.
10. Washington - Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia - I know, I know.  Poythress is not a top ten talent.  However, with Strasburg's bonus and Poythress' huge coming out party this year, this is a solid pick for a team that might want quick returns.  Poythress isn't on the level of an Alonso or Smoak, but I can easily see him being as good as David Cooper, who went #17 overall last year in a deeper draft.
11. Colorado - Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX) - When scouts are failing your mechanics with the eyeball test, you know you'll need some work.  Purke has a great arm, probably better than Tyler Matzek's, but he'll need to clean up some things before seeing success at higher levels.  Colorado is a little hard to project, but if Purke is on the board here, expect them to snatch him up.
12. Kansas City - Luke Bailey, C, LaGrange HS (GA) - Despite facing a challenge as the top high school catcher in the 2009 draft, Bailey has held his ground.  That's very impressive considering who he's up against.  His bat is good, his glove is good, and he's dealt with intense scrutiny for a few years now.  Solid pick at #12.
13. Oakland - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints - If Fresno State hadn't run his arm into the ground, we wouldn't be having this discussion.  When Scheppers comes back with a strong Indy showing, expect him to be popped in the first 15, despite it being a strong year for college pitching.  He's that good when healthy.
14. Texas - Max Stassi, C, Yuba City HS (CA) - Even though Bailey will probably go higher, no high school hitter has had a better year than Stassi.  He'll be the best player on the board at this point, and Texas has been known to pop the best available guy regardless of position.  It's possible Stassi hits his way into the top ten.
15. Cleveland - Mychal Givens, RHP, Plant HS (FL) - As much as I think Givens will be this year's Anthony Hewitt, there's too much talent in his body to ignore.  His fastball rates up there with anyone's, and his upside is enormous.  Teams might even want to try him in the field.  Combine the two, and you have a guy in the top 15 with a high bust rate, but with a high ceiling.
16. Arizona - Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State - I don't think Oliver necessarily deserves to even be this high, but considering he's fallen probably ten slots in less than two months, someone will take him on upside alone.  The whole NCAA debocle must have taken its toll on him, so there has to be some slack given to him.  This would be a solid pick in the first of back-to-back picks for Arizona.
17. Arizona - Matt Davidson, 3B, Yucaipa HS (CA) - Davidson is right up there with Stassi in terms of performance in his senior year.  Known as one of the most powerful prep bats available, Davidson profiles to at least be in the top 20.  Give him some time, and you might have a Matt Williams-type masher.
18. Florida - Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA) - Florida has to take a high schooler.  I'm pretty sure it's written on all internal memos.  Their 2006 experiment with a college pitcher failed (Brett Sinkbeil), so I expect them to go with best available high school player, which is Wheeler.  He's got a great arsenal, and good upside.
19. St. Louis - Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State - I considered putting local Jacob Turner in this slot, but I think Leake is too good to pass up.  He profiles as a #2 or 3 in the long run, but he'll get there quickly.  Good command of multiple pitches is what makes him the most successful Pac-10 pitcher outside of Josh Spence.
20. Toronto - Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Santa Monica HS (CA) - Skaggs is your normal projectable high school lefty, who can either dominate or be mediocre on any given day.  His great early-season showing, combined with solid starts the rest of the way, will land him squarely in the last half of the first round.  It's just a matter of the Blue Jays buying into high school pitching.
21. Houston - Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor - He hasn't exactly met expectations, but Volz has had a decent junior year.  If they have the chance, I wouldn't be surprised if Houston jumped on the Texas native.  His stuff is pretty good for a college starter, but don't be surprised if he's a shutdown reliever in the pros.
22. Minnesota - Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO) - Turner can hold his own with the other high-profile arms in the draft, but it's all about perception.  Not having come from the California-Texas-Florida-Georgia mold, Turner has been slightly less heralded than his counterparts.  However, the Twins are adept at finding these type of kids and turning them into studs, so this is a likely scenario.
23. Chicago (AL) - Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU - I'll take some flack for this, but I think Mitchell is one of the most improved, and most gifted, outfielders in the entire draft.  He's seeing the ball much better than earlier in his career, and the power and speed are starting to really come through in games.  He's pushed his way into the late 1st round, and Chicago isn't afraid to invest in highly-improved college hitters (see Beckham, Gordon).
24. Los Angeles (AL) - Jason Stoffel, RHP, Arizona - After a huge college reliever group last year, this year's crop seems quite insignificant.  Stoffel has been challenged as the top of this year's group, but he remains the most likely to have success in the pros.  The Angels have back-to-back picks here, so they'll decide who they want to slot in which spot based on money.
25. Los Angeles (AL) - Brian Goodwin, OF, Rocky Mount HS (NC) - Goodwin is generally considered a first round talent, though he could easily go higher than #25.  BA has called him a potential five-tool player, though he'll take considerable refinement to get there.  The Angels love their speedy outfielders, so we'll see if Goodwin is available when their turns come around.
26. Milwaukee - Austin Maddox, C, Eagle's View Academy (FL) - With a new scouting director, it's tough to know exactly what Milwaukee will do.  They traditionally love heady high school hitters, and Maddox fits that bill well.  He's a true first round talent, but has his questions.  He'll take considerable work to make it as a catcher and hitter, but the talent is there.
27. Seattle - Kyle Heckathorn, RHP, Kennesaw State - I thought Heckathorn was pitching his way out of the first couple of rounds early in the season, but his first round stuff has come back lately.  Seattle is tougher to project here, but picking a high-upside college pitcher is the type of thing that limits risk while leaving at least a little potential for greatness.  Heckathorn could slide out of the first round with a couple of rough showings.
28. Boston - Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State - I can't get enough of this guy, as he's slowly moved his way into first round consideration.  He's got good tools, and has matched that with performance this year.  He hasn't played a lot of good competition, meaning he might need an adjustment period, but he's one of the few college bats in the 2009 draft that profiles for above-average power without completely losing defensive value.
29. New York (AL) - Madison Younginer, RHP, Mauldin HS (SC) - If you loved the Gerrit Cole pick last year, you'll love Younginer just as much.  The kid has a mid-90s fastball, reaches even higher, and hasn't been overused in high school.  He's committed to Clemson quite strongly, meaning a team with a larger budget might need to open the pocketbook, but he doesn't seem as locked in to school as Cole was last season.  Expect him to sign.
30. Tampa Bay - Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA) - I don't know what it is, but this kid has just grabbed everyone's attention this year.  He's beaten out Devan Marrero as the best prep shortstop so far this year, and there's really nothing to hate about him.  Tampa Bay will be picking down here for awhile, so expect them to tab either surefire college pitching or high-upside hitters like Mier.
31. Chicago (NL) - AJ Pollock, OF, Notre Dame - People have been intrigued with Pollock's skillset since he came to Notre Dame, but he's been a little disappointing.  He sits squarely behind Tim Wheeler in my mind at this point, but a team like the Cubs that values pure talent over polish will grab him in the late first to supplemental round.
32. Colorado - Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot HS (FL) - Even though an argument can be made that Colorado doesn't need any more corner infielders, Borchering is far enough away that a space will clear if he succeeds in the minors.  He's got a power bat, but with its mechanical kinks, it will need some adjustments.  Colorado usually likes the prep hitters, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab Borchering with the last pick of the first round.

So there's my first mock.  You'll notice the omissions of Mike Minor, Kentrail Davis, DJ LeMahieu, and Ben Tootle.  All are quality players, and I have them tabbed as supplemental picks, as well as Robbie Shields.  All have disappointed in their own way.

What do you think?