Pablo Sandoval Crystal Ball
by John Sickels on Apr 13, 2009 3:22 PM EDT
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Here's a Crystal Ball for Pablo Sandoval. Board member casejud has a more optimistic CB.
My main concerns regarding Sandoval are 1) long-term defensive home and 2) age curve.
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… gulp, I think :-)
BTW, sorry John if i stole some of your thunder doing my own Pedro CB. Im sure people would rather see what you think anyways… fairly similar eh?
We both have him as having a fairly short but productive career. I just see him developing as more of a run-producer in his best seasons.
Of course only mine can be taken as a prediction :-)
Old Player Skills
as a 22 year old make this the best CB to date in my opinion. He will burn brightly for just a 3-4 year window, and I think would have to move to the AL and be a DH to have any value.
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
Crash Davis
If at first base
Looks like a rich man’s Randall Simon.
That's what I thought at first
But his peak is a bit longer.
I meant that IRL, I expect his career line to look like Randall Simon's
and then I totally expect to see Pablo show up in the WBC a decade from now, making me think… “oh yeah, I remember that guy…”
happily for me.....
…..his Pirates career is much shorter.
Crystal Ball Predictions
John,
I love most of your stuff, but this crystal ball effort of yours just seems futile to me. A lot of work at PURE SPECULATION based on, well, nothing. How do you predict injuries, for instance. Perhaps you enjoy creating it, but I find it truly without any logical basis of support for your “guesses.” Sorry, I’m sure I’m not alone feeling this way.
by baseballsteve56 on Apr 13, 2009 7:29 PM EDT reply actions
cb
They are actually a big pain in the rear to create, which is why I don’t do them as much as i used to. But a lot of people like them, and I get frequent requests for them.
by John Sickels on Apr 13, 2009 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
they're really not worth much...
but personally, I find them very interesting. They’re good to put up against what I think players might become. They are indeed pure shots in the dark, but they are based on what you’ve seen, read, etc…which is no different than what this entire website is about…projecting into the future…am i off base here?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Apr 14, 2009 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Upton vs. Sandoval
I think it’s better when you include something for your readers to work at, i.e. the comp thing with Upton. I dropped the Randall Simon thing here, and the numbers are really similar between Simon and the Sandoval in your crystal ball; I think if you put more things like that in, you’ll get more discussion and thus more readership, etc. I just think it’s a lot better when you put in a subject for discussion rather than just leave it hanging, at least in terms of getting something started. Just my two cents.
to each his own
I really do enjoy these and I realize that it is not very realistic as anything can happen. For myself I just love seeing a potential career like that. I often play baseball mogul and I love keeping guys on my team for 10-15 years and looking over the stats they aquire over time. John I did like how once or twice you commented on what they did after they retired or certain things that happened during their career. I guess what I’m trying to say is some people may love these, some may like them, and some may not care. Its tough to keep everyone happy isn’t it John? Maybe vote to see if they are worth doing for you?? anyways… my two cents.
by kershaw_equals_stud on Apr 14, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
projecting
John does wonderful job of projecting- but into the Near future, not 10-20 years. No one can make that leap, that’s why I find it without merit. Kinda like telling me if it’s gonna snow in New York next February 19th. It’s purely a guess.
by baseballsteve56 on Apr 14, 2009 12:48 AM EDT reply actions
Once again John
love the crystal balls! Great start to the morning. Just in my own thinking which is probably wrong I sort of pictured him with a higher peak. Maybe a higher average and a couple 100rbi seasons.
by kershaw_equals_stud on Apr 14, 2009 7:58 AM EDT reply actions
+1
I like them. Everyone understands its just BS. Its still fun to see them and they always start a good discussion. I don’t think anyone is using them as a resource to judge players by or anything. They arent meant to be instructive, just fun. To that end, they do a good job.
won't last
he won’t last 13 years in the Bigs. He is fat and will just get fatter and will eat himself out of the league. As it is right now he’s a defensive liability. I guess a Randall Simon type career is possible in which he seems to get a call up every few years as he loses all mobility due to his ability to hit the ball, but I think he won’t develop the power to be a DH and will be too immobile to play the field
The key
I believe the key with Pablo will still be his ability to adjust to pitchers by staying in the strike zone more often. So far this season, pitchers are finally doing what it was hard to believe they weren’t able to do last season — get ahead of him and then not bother to put the ball in the strike zone.
The result has been a .245 batting average (exactly 100 points below what he hit in 145 at bats with the Giants last season), and a dozen strikeouts compared to ZERO non-intentional walks. Oh, and he has yet to homer, limiting his OBP to just .340. Coupled with only a .286 OBP, Pablo’s OPS is just .625 on the season.
Pablo does have five hits in his last three games, and eight hits in his last six contests.
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