Justin Upton Crystal Ball
by John Sickels on Apr 12, 2009 10:00 AM EDT
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Here is a Crystal Ball for Justin Upton. I had two particular comparable players in mind when coming up with this. See if you can figure out who they are.
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Pessimistic
I think his average will definitely be higher and maybe with more stolen bases. All that power is perfectly legit however.
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a noob could be simply a level 100 running round shouting ‘’WTF DO I GO!?’’ or someone calling someone else a noob and then getting hit with a brick, anyone can call anyone a noob, but normally they are noobs themselves
-robert_d_wilfong
Your 2 Comps....
The first half of his career here looks an awful lot like Sammy Sosa. could also be Bagwell, but Upton K’s a lot more than Bags did.
The whole career has a very similar arc to that of Willie Stargell. Spends the first few years of his career as a very solid 20-35 HR guy, with a 4-5 year peak as one of the 2 or 3 best hitters in his league, then another long stretch as a 20-35 HR guy late in his career (not really a standard “decline” phase, as he’s solid and steady for a long time before retiring). High power, moderate walk, high strikeout, BA all over the map.
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey
Anytime
You predict a guy with 540 HR its a little optimistic
But
The Comps here have to be Griffey and A-rod
Sorry --
Not A-rod — ahh crap i had a guy then lost him
by METSMETSMETS on Apr 12, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Have to agree
…..if you have him giving my O’s 3 solid years. I’ll take that and just agree so I don’t jinks it.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
Murray...
and Winfield are great guesses, but I’m thrown by the fact that Upton began in his teens, which makes me think John looked to other guys who played in the majors as teenagers as comps. The other candidates I see are Mickey Mantle and Frank Robinson.
Who's to say...
..but glad this one isnt a prediction. I think he a) Wont take as long to start being a great player B) Will strike out more even when he becomes awesome C) Steal more bases
and why would he take such a dropoff when he joined the O’s? No reason I guess… just one possible outcome.
Nice work. I enjoy these.
Comps...
Looks like Ken Griffey Jr. adjusted for a less homer-heavy era, or a healthy Eric Davis.
A healthy Eric Davis steals about 700 bases.
Tools Whore
Yeah...
the more I look at it, the more I think the comps are Griffey and Foxx. Both broke in with solid teenage seasons and then took off in their early 20s.
Fred McGriff
If he had broke in 3 years earlier they are very similar.
My first mistake was assuming you knew what I was talking about.
+1
I also like Pops Stargell
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
by scatterbrian on Apr 13, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't see it.
Too many HRs and too consistently high a performance for Wells to be a comp, too few BBs for Manny.
none
So far no one has guessed the two comps.
I will reveal it tomorrow if no one comes up with them.
My guesses
Hank Aaron and Adrian Beltre.
Aaron for the long career and consistent high HR production without a single huge season.
Beltre for the young start and many years of what could be perceived as disappointing output before an age 25 breakout. Hmmm, Aramis Ramirez might fit here as well.
I'm Matt (expletive) Bush!
Albert Belle
They’re not that similar but its fun to mention him.
Surprising not to see him on the Mitchel Report.
by METSMETSMETS on Apr 12, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
Jose Canseco cited Belle as an example of a clean player who most would have thought was a PED user due to his numbers, physique, and attitude.
"Clean"
He wasn’t exactly clean — he got caught cheating, after all. He may or may not have juiced. But he broke the rules.
http://www.chop-n-change.com
by alexwithclass on Apr 13, 2009 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
But this is exactly why baseball’s anti-steroid moralism is deeply disingenuous. Lots of people have cheated. But steroid users are treated as though they’re morally different, rather than just technologically different.
http://www.chop-n-change.com
by alexwithclass on Apr 13, 2009 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike Schmidt
has to be one.
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Apr 12, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Eddie Matthews
as the other?
--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com
by Pablo Zevallos on Apr 12, 2009 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
My three guesses: Willie McCovey, Ernie Banks, Billy Williams
If I win, can the prize be a write up of an underreported but promising Mariner prospect complements or expands on this week’s LL report?
Jim Thome and Jose Canseco
Ooh, I know, BJ Upton! I would have guessed Slammin Sammy but someone already took that. Personally, I expect Justin to have fewer HRs and more SBs and probably not the longevity. Then again to play in the majors as a teen is pretty special. 500 HR special? 200 million dollar special? We’ll see.
"Loyal? I'm the most loyal player money can buy." - Don Sutton
SBs
I’ve read a few comments where they expect more SBs from Upton. While John might be slightly pessimistic in the SB department, I believe he’s closer to the reality.
I’ve seen the kid up close several times and he’s an absolute horse that is going to put on another 20-30 lbs before he’s done. More of a Clydesdale than a racehorse though. I just don’t see him maintaining much speed as he matures.
I like the Albert Belle comps but it remains to be seen whether he’ll have the contact skills to go with the slugging.
How about Juan Gonzalez?
Comps
A combo of Ripken and Killebrew?
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my blog @ The Casual Observer
Little joke there
http://www.chop-n-change.com
by alexwithclass on Apr 13, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
re: Justin....is...
Thome, or Frank Thomas?
maybe matt williams?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Alfonso Soriano
Would be my guess or even Andruw Jones because Jones came up very young…..Miguel Cabrera could be someone to compare him to also
comp
First half of career is vaguely based on Darryl Strawberry. Second half is vaguely based on George Foster.
Vaguely Based
“Heh. That’s like the teaser "based on a true story" used in movie promos where nothing is even remotely close to the actual story.
I guess I sort of see the Straw comp, though Darryl was less contact-oriented and much more of a threat on the basepaths.
Strawberry
What a waste of a tremendous talent. Even after everything he put himself through, he hit 24 HR in 295 AB at 36 years old. Should have been a HOF’er.
(sigh)
Reviews of some great baseball sites and other cool stuff on my blog @ The Casual Observer
Awesome
Great to see a Crystal Ball on Upton. I’m more bullish on Upton than you, as I’d be willing to bet on him picking up a few more SB’s while he’s still young and having 1-3 more seasons like his proposed age-25/28 seasons. I’d also feel comfortable keeping his level of play just a bit higher in his early 30’s, as I see him as more of a 30-35HR guy during that period. Otherwise, I’m right with you, particularly starting at age 33.
I am curious as to why you don’t see Upton stealing more bases as a young player, and whether or not you see him ever moving back to CF (which would be the difference between a player with your Crystal Ball being a top tier HOF’r or just a mere HOF’r.)
40
I almost forgot! I do think Upton is the sort of fellow who would stubbornly stick around at 40, if only to say he played from his teens to his 40’s and because it would likely take a repeat of his age 39 to convince him he was through. There’s a distinct possibility that age 40 seasons might not show up on his card, come to think of it. It could just be as an NRI to ST.
speed
I think he will concentrate on power at the expense of speed. Just the feeling I get looking at him….i don’t think he’ll keep his speed as long as his brother will.
by John Sickels on Apr 13, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough
I can see where you’re coming from with that. It would certainly fit into the description given by his father on the latest Real Sports on HBO. Have you seen that?
my comps
based on numbers alone, I’d guess Harmon Killebrew, Eddie Mathews, or Willie McCovey.
I think we've tried just about everyone who's hit over 400 home runs
Except (shudder) Andrew Dawson…
I see
him leveling out with like 8 straight 30hr 110rbi seasons with a good average hovering from 290-315. Maybe one or two 40-45hr seasons in there. I’d imagine he’ll be hitting 3rd or 4th so I think he would have more rbis than projected here.
by kershaw_equals_stud on Apr 14, 2009 9:59 PM EDT reply actions
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