Chris Volstad Community Projection Results

by John Sickels on Apr 10, 2009 2:41 PM EDT Comment 5 comments

Here are the Chris Volstad Community Projection results. We had just 10 entries, which is pathetic. I guess people really have lost interest in this exercise, and with so few participants they really aren't worth doing any more.

The results:

30 games, 29 starts, 178 innings, 185 hits, 14 homers, 91 runs, 80 earned, 4.04 ERA, 126/59 K/BB ratio, 12-9 record.

Other projection systems:

Shandler      4.06 ERA, 79/53 K/BB in 140 innings (which would be 100/67 in 178)
CHONE       4.80 ERA, 88/66 K/BB in 150 innings, (104/78 in 178), 166 hits
ZIPS            5.03 ERA, 62/43 B/BB in 127 innings, (87/60 in 178), 147 hits
PECOTA      5.17 ERA, 119/83 K/BB in 201 innings (105/74 in 178), 230 hits

I think the Community Projection is too optimistic, and I think something like the ZIPS or PECOTA numbers is more likely.

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next time

I promise to try this. Just can be a bit of a pain getting the numbers to match for me.

by wobatus on Apr 10, 2009 3:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is the truth.

I’m just too lazy to do the math.

by Lunkwill Fook on Apr 10, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh?

What indicates to you that a 5.00+ ERA is the more likely scenario? Volstad is terrific, gets a ton of ground balls, and had a good deal of success last year in his time in the bigs.

by Daniel Plainview on Apr 11, 2009 2:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't know if

Volstad will ever be a true # 1 guy. But, I do think he has a great chance to emerge as a solid #2 starter. I just don’t think the K’s will ever be there in great numbers, and he’ll give up his share of hits. But he should be able to be a consistant 12-15 game winner who routinely pitches 200+ inning once he gets going.

by smoooooth on Apr 11, 2009 10:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs