What do you think of my trade?

by casejud on Apr 1, 2009 12:13 PM EDT Comment 38 comments

This one really happened, btw, albeit in my DMB league. I don't think I've ever asked about anything related to my fantasy league on here in my 4-5 years on here so i thought it would be fun.

This morning I sent superstar SS- Jose Reyes and OF- Gary Matthews Jr. away

in return I acquired SS- Erick Aybar, 2B- Asdrubal Cabrera, CF- Franklin Gutierrez

By way of some context my league is 24 teams. It simulates real baseball pretty closely if you aren't familiar with Diamond Mind Baseball- Defense counts and matters- so think of it just as you would a real basball trade. Jose Reyes' steals aren't as valuable as his homers or whatever.

From my end I am rebuilding this season (based on 2008 stats) so all that matters is going forward and I had only Blake deWitt slated to play some 2b in 2009- and not much at that with Hudson on the Dodgers. Also had only Sarge Jr. and Brian Anderson on the depth chart for CF and Gutierrez fills that.

Aybar, Cabrera and Gutierrez are all young, have jobs, can play defense but there are some question marks about them all as well. What do you think?

Poll

Who's end of the deal you like better?

Dude who got Jose Reyes andf Gary Matthews Jr.

144 votes

Dude who got Aybar, Cabrera and Gutierrez

8 votes

152 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 38 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

uh...

I can’t imagine any scenario, any sims game, any fantasy league with the screwiest of rules/categories, certainly not real baseball, where this could be a good deal. I hope this was an April Fool’s joke.

The wind is in the buffalo.

by journeymen on Apr 1, 2009 12:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ok

fair enough. i cant complain really- I ASKED for your opinion. Personally I think Aybar is a .300 hitter this year- Cabrera could be a run producer AND a great glove at 2b and Gutierrez will be real solid in CF.

To me it is 3 good, young ballplayers for one very good one.

by casejud on Apr 1, 2009 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

April fools?

If not, you got smoked. Reyes is a stud, the others are duds, at least in comparison.

The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!

by The Congo Hammer on Apr 1, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So far yes

but thats what evaluating talent is all about. I think they ALL have thier best years in front of them.

by casejud on Apr 1, 2009 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hm.

What defensive numbers does Diamond Mind use? You gave up a 5-6 WAR player for three 2-2.5 WAR players. Overall you stack up ahead…until you consider that all you’d have to do to make up that 1-2 WAR difference is staff 2B and CF with 1 WAR players. I can’t believe that’s very hard to do.

I call it a win for the other guy. Subtracting Matthews might be an added benefit to your team if you don’t get a deep bench, though.

I don’t think you got as absolutely smoked as the other people posting here do by the way I understand Diamond Mind, but you should have held out for more.

by slamcactus on Apr 1, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Rating

It gives players a rating for range, errors, arm- then you play the games

by casejud on Apr 1, 2009 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This one is better:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/5/682977/you-re-the-gm-mets-edition#10490386

My trade proposal from December:

Trade Jose Reyes + Eddie Kunz to Cleveland for Asdrubal Cabrera, Kelly Shoppach, Adam Miller, and Franklin Gutierrez

And even that one was pretty much universally reviled by Mets fans.

by acerimusdux on Apr 1, 2009 3:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Of course

Mets fans love Jose Reyes, me too, but i have the rest of the lineup to think about

by casejud on Apr 1, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: wow...are you kidding?

You don’t need to be a Mets fan to realize you’ve been had!

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Apr 1, 2009 4:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I kinda like it

I think all three of the players i got are going to be solid regulars starting this year.

by casejud on Apr 1, 2009 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A+

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Apr 1, 2009 5:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

I think :-)

by casejud on Apr 1, 2009 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

my opinion

needs more words in all caps

by mrkupe on Apr 1, 2009 8:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You

are mean kupe- lol

I didnt use ANY words in CAPS either but, nice memory.

by casejud on Apr 1, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WHY????

by joegonzo on Apr 1, 2009 10:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Because

1) I needed a guy who can catch the ball in CF and I think Gutierrez is going to hit

2) I needed a 2b and i think Cabrera is going to hit AND be a great defender at 2b

3) I think Aybar is going to a .300 hitter and a verysolid SS as well

4) Matthews was a toss-in and doesnt have a lot of value to me

by casejud on Apr 2, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am familiar with DMB, but I don’t know. Unless your league has contracts (players expire etc.) and Reyes is expiring soon, I think you could have gotten a lot more, and at least 1 top-prospect and 1 sure decent player

join the cause: www.weplaygreen.org

by gore51 on Apr 2, 2009 12:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I feel you

But I already have a good amount of good prospects

We carry a 5-man aaa roster and those guys are Trevor Cahill, Ken Kawakami, Yonder Alonso, Angel Salome, and Micheal Stanton

I didnt have a CF or a 2b for next year and I think the best years are in front of Gutierrez and Cabrera

I also feel like Aybar is really coming on as a player and will be at least a top-10 SS.

I feel like ALL 3 guys I got are going to be more than decent players.

by casejud on Apr 2, 2009 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You lost the trade.

I have been in a DMB league since 2003, and I have had Frankie Gutes before. He does play great defense in the league, but his bat his less than average. I am guessing your league is doing what most are this season and using the ZiPS for it’s “projection” disk. Frankie is a 9HR and 9SB guy with only a 320 OBP. And really, I don’t see him as anything more than another Endy Chavez, after Chavez lost his stolen base ability. Of course he will have more power, but I prefer Gutes as a 4th OF rather than a starter.

Cabrera I like, good glove and a decent bat. I liken him to Omar Vizquel without the great plate discipline. Will be a decent player for you.

I don’t see Aybar as much more than a middle infield utility player. He lacks power, stolen bases, and plate discipline. He may hit 300 this year, but that means his OBP is still only around a 330 level. Not bad, but not special.

On this ZiPS version of DMB, wiffy hitters kill your team. Trust me, me and my roomie have run a lot of test sims and the teams that have a lot of strikeout prone hitters (like Gutes and Cabrera) get killed. My team struggles on every test sim, and that’s with Bay and Ankiel in the middle of my line-up, and Lincecum, Lowe, and Verlander as the top three in my rotation (the rest of the team is solid, if unspectacular). The high strikeout totals of Ankiel and Bay just kill too many chances for run-scoring innings. I’ve noticed that you can add about 20% to the strikeout totals of most of these guys, over what ZiPS projects.

In my mind, you just traded one of the most complete SSs in the league (bat, defense, and baserunning) for a solid middle infielder and two bench players. And that’s not including Matthews Jr who could contribute 15HR and a 340OBP this year.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Apr 2, 2009 4:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Since when is Asdrubal strike-out prone?

Obviously this deal is terrible (and I’m pretty sure it’s a bad joke), but I think Asdrubal Cabrera is one of the most under-rated players in the game. His numbers have been warped by being often hurried to a too-high level, too quickly, but at no point as he ever struck out more than in the 16-18% clip, not terrific, but not terrible either. Every time he has played at the level where most top prospects are at his age (2007 in AA, 2008 in AAA), his OPS has shot up, and in AA his K rate was below 10%.

We have here a middle infielder who survived in the major leagues at age 22, showing decent power, a knack for drawing walks, and a K rate that ranges from reasonable to excellent. Is it out of the question that he could hit regularly for an OPS of .800-.850?

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Apr 3, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

He is an excellent defensive player, with good contact skills and a very advanced approach.

Not only did he survive at the MLB level and advanved minor league steps at an extremely young age, but he flashed dominant at times.

If that wasnt enought to convince you, how about this: Bill Bavasi traded him away.

by alskor on Apr 3, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

And we should also note that he dramatically improved as the season went on, producing an OPS of .862 after the all-star break, with a K rate in the 15% range.

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Apr 3, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good then

Somebody sees the potential in him that i do then. Anybody see that kind of potential in Aybar too? Plus glove – puts the bat on ball from both sides- stings liners- developing power

by casejud on Apr 3, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont think Aybar has the approach

I think he’ll look like that at times… but I see him as very up and down.

I like all the guys you traded for… just think you overpaid a bit, but its all relative and we dont know your league that well.

by alskor on Apr 4, 2009 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

Im really not trying to justify the trade unreasonably, but I like the guys I got.

My league is buntontheweb.com- great website and the constitution is there.

Ill just say this in evaluating the deal

- there are 24 teams instead of 30

- It plays like real baseball meaning Reyes is a great player but not mega-great like in fantasy – HIS STEALS BARELY MATTER

- It doesnt matter what they did in 2008, only what they do from now on

Now it may STILL be a bad deal but, nobody can say for sure. I spent a LOT of energy trading away old plyers to get younger this off-season and this deal helps that.

by casejud on Apr 4, 2009 6:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, I still don't think this deal makes any sense

You dealt a superstar and change for 2 potentially solid players. Even if you’re higher on Asdrubal on him than I am – and I’m pretty high on him – I’m sure you could have paid significantly less

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Apr 4, 2009 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OP

Its NOT a joke. I made this deal.

by casejud on Apr 3, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks

For your more detailed but similar opinion to the others but, I diagree. I see WAY more potential in those guys than you do.

I think Aybar will hit similar to what Christian Guzman did last season for the next several years.

Cabrera will blossom into a pretty dang good all around 2b this year.

Gutierrez will give me a solid defender and an average bat for CF also. I just think hes going to hit batter than he has thus far. i agree a platoon is ideal for him perhaps but…

I am also NOT using a dips projection disk. The trade is based on what I THINK of these players future- this season and beyond- and what kind of seasons they have for next years disk.

I also play in Kauffman stadium, and if you’ve played DMB you know how important defense is as well. Try playing a SIM or 2 with PR defenders in CF, and the IF- lol

Another point is that my squad also has Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, Brian Giles, Ryan Church, Blake DeWitt, and hopefully Mat Gamel coming up so these new guys are really the bottom of my lineup and, I think, not a bad one. We’ll see how they do.

How come Aybar gets no points with you for making solid contact and not striking out Brick? I agree Ks kill you and he doesnt strike out. Aybar has a lot of potential with the bat IMO. Hes 25.

by casejud on Apr 2, 2009 10:11 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For your more detailed but similar opinion to the others but, I diagree. I see WAY more potential in those guys than you do.

Then why ask everyone what they thought? You are apparently smarter than everyone else when it comes to projecting players out for the next three to five years.

I, for one, agree with boxcutter in that you traded one elite player for three slightly better than average players. I’m not sure exactly how your league works per se, but I’ve got to believe you could find an all field, no-hit second baseman and a 1.5 WAR outfielder with above average defense without giving away the best all-around SS in the game.

Ask yourself two questions: Would you get fired as a GM for making this deal? Would the GM of the other team spit up coffee on himself when he saw that this had been offered?

The answer to both of those is yes.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Apr 3, 2009 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Im the owner

and the GM, so theres that- I CANT be fired :-) Its just one deal and as beloved as Reyes is, hes just one player.

I disagree that Cabera or Aybar are “All- Field, no -hit” I think BOTH are good hitters. Gutierrez I think can hit around average for a CF or better with plus defense.

I really think everybody here so far is selling Aybar short as a player.

As far as why ask- uh, I dont know, JUST CURIOUS I guess. I guess I dont think Im smarter than everybody then do I smartass? :-)

by casejud on Apr 3, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

rationalize it anyway you like

but you got creamed in this one.

by son.of.sourman on Apr 2, 2009 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That all depends

on what the players do. rationalize it all you want but, it remains to be seen.

by casejud on Apr 3, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

This was a great diary, altho I must admit I stopped reading halfway thru. Basically Case asked everyone for their opine and when 95% of people informed him he had been taken, he proceeded to defend his trade to each person. Only on blogs.

The Giants need to sign Harry Doyle.

by jrose643 on Apr 3, 2009 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I thought

That was what these things were for dude- to discuss them

Opinions are like a-holes, everybody has one. Most people like and deserve a resonse to a comment, even if i dont agree. I have pretty good sense of humor but I guess i dont see why that is so funny dude.

Glad I helped you enjoy yourself though- lol

by casejud on Apr 3, 2009 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Reyes

I think a lot of the disagreement here comes because of how we value Reyes vs. how you do. I don’t think anyone is going to say that Cabrera, Gutierez, and Aybar are bad players (although I’m not an Aybar guy myself). But even in non-fantasy baseball, Jose Reyes is a top-teir SS, and the general rule with trades is “whoever got the best player wins”. Reyes is clearly the best player in the deal, steals or no.

I guess the way I see it, you’re paying full price for the upside of the players you’re getting while the guy on the other side doesn’t really have any downside. If Aybar, et al. produce like you’re hoping they will, then you’re in great shape. But if one of them doesn’t do quite as well as you think, you’ll almost certainly end up with the fuzzy end of this particular lollypop.

by mraver on Apr 5, 2009 12:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

Nothing is a certainty with ballplayers though really. Remember when Reyes was a very injury-prone young man? Losing 3 players who are 23-26, can play defense, potential with the bat, and have starting jobs in the big leagues has some downside- doesnt it? Heck if Gutierrez doesnt progress as a hitter and Cabrera and Aybar form a nice middle infield for years I wont have done THAT bad on it. I see your essential point though- I am usually the one who gets the best player in a deal but- that doesnt ALWAYS make it a good deal if you do.

by casejud on Apr 5, 2009 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Simplicity

I think it all boils down to this: you traded away one sure thing for 3 maybes. You need all three players to play up to your projections for the deal to work in your favor.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Apr 7, 2009 7:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs