Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill in A's Rotation...
by DJSlam on Apr 1, 2009 9:27 AM EDT
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PrintI was thinking about both of these guys making the A's rotation, and wondering, what are their chances for success? Now obviously both are very good prospects, and have the stuff to eventually become front line starters. Both have also dominated in the minors to this point to some extent.
However, both of them have recently only turned 21. They have also only pitched in a handful of games in AA thus far. I'm sure both could use some more seasoning in the minors, but due to the A's current situation, they had to be called up now.
What does everyone think their chances of any type of success this year would be, and also, i can't seem to recall too many pitchers being called up at such a young age and thrown into the rotation. Are there past examples we can look at?
Also, who do you feel is better equipped to hold their own at this young age? Thanks for everyone's time.
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Anderson/Cahill and... Porcello
I actually like Anderson’s and Cahill’s chances of success. Anderson looks really polished, and as long as he can carry over his control with him to the majors, he could put up a stat line similar to Kevin Slowey. Cahill, for me, is a bit more of a question mark. His control needs to not completely erode, like it did in AA. Also, it should be noted that neither of these guys have pitched more than 125 innings in a season. That’s sort of worrisome.
The guy that I’m really concerned with is Porcello. Yeah, we’ve heard all the complaints about him before, and I’ve said and repeated most of them myself. But now, if he starts in the majors, all of those concerns and complaints are amplified tenfold. I used Jeremy Sowers as a worst-case stat comp for him earlier this offseason, and I think the likelihood of that comp becoming a reality (at least for this season) now increases significantly. His 6+ K/9 at high-A is NOT going to translate well to the majors. Hopefully that secret curveball can get him some strikeouts, or this could get ugly.
As an A's fan, I really hate that Duchscherer couldn't stay healthy to start the year
and one of the other guys battling for a spot couldn’t be even decent.
I just don’t think either guy is ready, and I’m really worried about what rushing them is going to do.
by thejd44 on Apr 1, 2009 1:00 PM EDT reply actions
I think Anderson and Cahill could do well
I think Anderson will be more consistent, sure, but I don’t think the call-up is going to hamper their development like the Tigers’ callup of Porcello will hamper his development.
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by The Congo Hammer on Apr 1, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Similar examples to look at?? ......
Hayden Penn came up for the Orioles at age 20 and 21 with I believe no AAA experience and only minimum AA experience. Result: Loss of confidence and stuff, got hurt got surgery and no longer looks like the same pitcher. He will never be the same pitcher, and he was a top ranked pitching prospect.
Matt Riley came up at age 19 with no AAA experience. He was ranked I believe #15 prospect by BA in 2000. What happened? Same thing as Penn, loss of stuff and confidence followed by surgery.
Daniel Cabrera pitched in a grand total of 5 games at AA and was called up to Baltimore. Yes he was rushed, and it showed. He actually became an innings eater with an annual ERA around 5.50. Oh but of course what has happened to him in the last 2 years? Loss of velocity and his offspeed stuff. He had so much potential to become something special, but it all fell appart.
Notice all 3 of these examples are Baltimore Orioles, atleast Cahill and Anderson have that working for them! Also only Riley was ever regarded as an elite pitching talent, but no matter who u are, rushing a prospect can be disasterous!
Good examples
I’m wondering if it has ever worked out. I mean, I could definitely see either one or even both being sent back down at some point when the inevitable struggles come.
As for Baltimore, let’s just hope they don’t screw up their current bunch of elite pitchers they have going for them in the minors right now.
It has worked out
This guy was pretty good before his career got derailed by off the field stuff.
"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller
The off the field stuff is actually my biggest concern
THAT is exactly the risk in rushing young guys to the majors.
Not so much
The lifestyle of the average minor league player can/does get every bit as crazy as MLB players – if they’re gonna party their ass off / make poor choices, they’re every bit as likely (if not more so) to do it in the minors. Porcello already got his signing bonus, so it’s not like there would be a drastic pay rate change for him like most other players see when they make the show. If anything, I think being around players that have been through the craziness already will be better influences on him. I think Gooden would have ran into similar problems had he spent more time in the minors.
If there is a worry, it’s that he’ll get destroyed by opposing bats and it will mess with his head.
Its a major concern to me
Tipping clubhouse guys. dealing with crazy fans, women, temptations… these are not minor things when youre 20 years old. Lots of guys have lost their way. 20 year olds are still growing up. He cant even drink yet.
Its a far cry from the minor leagues – nothing to do with money. I totally disagree that the lifestyle of the minor leaguer is every bit as crazy as that of MLB players.
Its not an overwhelming concern, but its certainly something to consider.
Well then you're
oblivious to the lifestyle of players in the minor leagues. I know a few guys that have played in the minors – they’ll be the first to tell you it’s absolutely as crazy. The women, alcohol and other temptations are just as pervasive. The kids are many times out of the house for the first time – just like how kids can get when they get to college – except they have more money and even the fat guy gets laid. Yeah, he’s not of age to drink, but since when did that a difference?
No.
The difference is talent between AA and AAA is minimal. You could come up with a list of pitchers just as long that skipped AAA as otherwise (the Dodgers, for instance, never let a good pitcher spend a season in AAA). At least half of all top pitching prospects don’t pan out. It’s no surprise we can find some of them that skipped AAA.
Going from A-ball to the majors, that’s a different story. I can’t say I approve of that kind of jump for any pitcher, especially one that was a teenager last year.
WAAAAY over blown
There have been plenty of highly touted pitchers who have followed “normal” development paths and never panned out in the majors. Holding three Orioles up and saying “see, look!!!” proves absolutely nothing.
Roger Clemens – only about 45 IP in AAA and less than 150 IP total in the minors in less than 2 seasons before making his MLB debut. If you say Rocket would not have been successful in the majors w/o those 45 IP in AAA, I want some of what you’re smoking.
Scott Kazmir is another. Sorry, I just don’t see those 50 innings in AA as being make or break for how he turned out.
clemens
That’s pointing to fairly exceptional case isn’t it. Just because one of the top 10 pitchers of all time could do it doesn’t mean it makes sense on average for a good prospect to barely pitch in AAA.
At the same time
nobody is saying that Porcello/Anderson/Cahill will be as good as Clemens either. A lot of these guys are more ready for the majors than many people give them credit for – if it wasn’t for the arb clock you’d see many more pitchers advancing a lot quicker.
Clemens
was a college pitcher, so he was at least 21 when drafted (maybe he was 22, I don’t know). That puts him even a year older when he reached the majors.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Check your facts
Clemens was drafted at age 20 in June of 1983. He dominated A+/AA that summer and was up the following May (less than a year after being drafted). Looking at his minor league numbers, you could make a case he could have been very successful if he went straight to the majors in ‘83. Porcello hasn’t been that dominant, but no one is expecting him to be the second coming of Clemens either.
Dwight Gooden
None of these guys are in Gooden’s class as a prospect.
But Dwight progressed seemlessly from A Ball to MLB at age 19
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Outman
Per the San Francisco Chronicle, Josh Outman has beat out Sean Gallagher for the fifth rotation slot.
outman was throwing 95-97mph the other day
against kc, but once gio/gallagher get healthy and fix their issues, i assume outman will be back in AAA or in the bullpen
by Asfan4ever723 on Apr 2, 2009 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions
whats the lowdown on Rocky Roquet
A’s traded for him today, a bit old, but not much experience having pitched for several yrs after a converted OF. i read can get it up to 97mph so arm strength is there. probably AAA filler for now
No problem with any of the three.
Many teams only use their AAA squad for depth, and AA is where they play their top prospect. Atlanta does it, the Dodgers do that quite a bit, even Houston has many times. I don’t have any issues with Cahill and Anderson skipping AAA.
As for Porcello, if he was the best option the team had, then he earned his spot. You’re not instilling confidence or commitment if you have to tell a 20 year old kid “Look, you pitched better than all the other pitching options out there, but because you’re only 20 and haven’t pitched above High A, you are getting sent down. Nothing personal. We just think it would hurt you in the long run to let you pitch in the majors right now, even though you earned it this spring training. Really, we don’t even know why we kept you in the major league camp, there was no chance of you making the squad, no matter what you did. But thanks for the effort.”
Fact is, none of us know how Porcello will do. We can guess all we want, but not a single one of us know Rick like Leyland and the other coaches do. He could be completely ready to handle the promotion. Or he could blow out his arm by his third start because he is trying to overthrow the ball. I’ll step aside and let the people who get paid to make these decisions make them. Leyland is a manager I actually trust. Now, if Porcello were with the Reds…. gulp
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Now this
I can agree with. Makes more sense than most of what has been thrown around about Porcello especially. Can’t believe people think it’s a good idea to run Willis/Robertson out there over Porcello, despite Porcello CLEARLY being the better pitcher of the three right now.
+1
He earned his spot. It’s wasn’t handed to him. I doubt that this is thesituation that Detroit would prefer but it’s how it worked out. If you are going to have a competition for spots, what message does it send when you give the job to a guy who stunk it up and send a better option down.
It's not like Porcello dominated this Spring.
13.2IP 16H 7K:5BB
That’s not the line of someone who forced his way into the rotation. How much better is that than Nate Robertson’s spring line of 14.2IP 16H 10K:9BB? Not enough to make the switch, unless you put a whole lot of stock in 15 innings of spring training ERA.
Porcello is in the rotation because the Tigers wanted him there, for whatever reason. He didn’t force anyone’s hand.
Did you see them pitch
So you can judge by the stats you posted who has actually thrown the ball better? I don’t think Jim Leyland is basing his decision on those stats, but I guess that works for you. I’m thinking that the guys that did think a lot more of what Porcello can do than what Nate Robertson can. I think we all know how that would turn out. So do you keep Porcello down for a month – 6 weeks and then call him up, is that going to make him a better pitcher. He was going to be up sometime this year, and probably sooner than later, with what Detroit is running out to the mound.
I have some other stats here
Robetson 5.52 ERA 3 HR allowed
Porcello 2.63 0 HR allowed
albeit these are only spring training numbers
I put more stock into what Robertson had done previously, he had a whopping ERA+ of 70 last year, a 1.66 WHIP, 26 HR allowed. His spring numbers compare quite favorably to these, and I would expect more of the same going forward into the regular season. My money is on Rick Porcello being able to better these lofty standards that Nate Robertson has set.
I have no
problem saying Rick Porcello is a better pitcher today than Nate Robertson and I feel pretty safe doing it, and apparently so do the Tigers.
Porcello
I am a little uneasy about having a 20 year old jump from A ball to the Majors. Even if he was the best option it doesn’t mean it is the best option for Porcello’s long term development. It would have been extremely easy to send Porcello to AA this season – he’s 20 and spent last year in A ball – he shouldn’t expect to jump straight to the rotation. Of course the Tigers may have forced themselves into a corner by letting it be known that he was being considered for a spot instead of just gaining experience of a big league camp. This just reminds me too much of when Bonderman was rushed straight from A ball.
Again...
Using Bonderman as the poster child for how not to rush a pitching prospect IS NOT a good example, in fact it supports that it’s very possible to make the jump. Bonderman adjusted just fine – above average pitcher in 2006 as a 23 year old followed by a tremendous first half of 2007 – then he got hurt. Yet people somehow think that since he hasn’t done anything the last 1.5 years, that it is somehow caused by his rapid promotion to the bigs – it wasn’t – he has been INJURED. If he would have been smacked around mercilessly and never recovered, the people whining about his jump from A-ball to the bigs would actually have a point. As it turned out, there isn’t a leg to stand on here.
Bonderman
Where did I say that Bonderman has not achieved anything? I said that he was rushed straight from A ball which he was. It was obvious he wasn’t ready after putting up a ERA+ of 77 in 162 innings at the same age of Porcello. Bonderman may have recovered to be an above average pitcher but I don’t think it is unreasonable to think that he was somewhat stunted by his rapid promotion.
Replacement Level
It’s also round about replacement level performance for a SP. You shouldn’t need to burn a years service time of one of the top 5-10 pitching prospects in baseball to find that.
MLB Contract
Does that effect his service time though? By my understanding the Tigers would still have 3 pre arb years and 3 post arb years before he became a free agent. The MLB contract is just a way to guarantee to Porcello that he will be placed on the MLB roster within a set amount of years and the Tigers were under no pressure to promote him this year or have I misunderstanding that?
The clock will start running
on Porcello on opening day. The Tigers have 6 years of control so they have him until 2014 season They have already bought out maybe 1 year of arbitration but the options don’t have a price tag attached yet. All of that depends on whether he is Super 2 eligible after next year
Obvious?
How many rookie pitchers -even those who followed a “normal” development path- actually perform better than Bonderman’s 77 ERA+? The answer is less than half. It’s not unreasonable to think he may have turned out better had he spent more time in the minors. It’s also not unreasonable to say that it wouldn’t have mattered. There’s no use debating that point.
Leyland and Dombrowski’s job is to win. Porcello is the player that they feel is most able to help the team do just that to break camp. I’m sure they’ve considered long term effects of this promotion and obviously the pros outweigh the cons to them. I’m also sure they have prepped Porcello for a demotion should he struggle mightily and/or better options for the rotation become available.
Not to say that coaches and GM’s are infallible, but the armchair GM’ing that goes on in these boards is ridiculous sometimes.
Yes Obvious
It was pretty obvious that a 20 year old pitcher who hadn’t pitched above A ball and put up a ERA+ of 77 was not ready for the jump. I find it amazing that you can even argue that point.
But what
about the next year. With out the experience of pitching in the majors would he have been able to post an ERA+ of 91 as a 21 year old coming from AA.
Exactly my point
that flew right over his head. The point was that most guys that followed “normal” development paths suck ass their rookie year. If they are able to improve in subsequent seasons, there is no reason to say they weren’t ready.
Didn't go over my head
It’s just there is no evidence that getting beat up for a year in the majors is better preparation for the following season than dominating hitters in AA and AAA. It is likely that Bonderman could have put up an ERA+ of 91 without being smacked around the year before. I’d say it would be a very good bet that he would have beaten the 77 he got the year before and it would have saved a years service time on the right side of his peak.
Conversely
there is no evidence that playing in the minors for another year would have allowed him to to post that 91 ERA+ the following year either.
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Cahill Last Night
Pitching against what probably will be the Giants starting lineup for the season, was not too impressive. Walked a bunch of batters, fell behind of a bunch of others, end up giving up 4 runs in 5 innings. I really think he needs to be in the minors in AA for this year.
I watched it on MLB
and I wasn’t as impressed with him as I was hoping to be. He didn’t have near the sink on his 2 seamer that I had been expecting. It had more tail on it than sink. It is still a good pitch, especially if the control comes around, but not the dominating pitch Brandon Webb type pitch I had hoped to see
Webb had some control problems, too, early on in his big league career, though he was a bit older than Cahill is now. watching him last night, he did remind me of Webb a bit.
Cahill probably gets sent back down to the minors if he struggles early on and the A’s staff gets healthy again.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Apr 3, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Spring training
means jack sh#t – especially if you’re basing that assertion on that single performance.
Re: Spring Training
Where did I say I was basing everything off of that one start? Read through the whole discussion here. The kid is one month removed from being 20 years old.
For the record, I think this is an almost unbelievably stupid decision
I’d like to think it’s being forced on Beane by Lew Wolff, because normally I don’t say that about things the A’s do. The sudden “reverse course” from rebuilding to trying to compete with half a roster this season may go down as one of the single worst decisions in the modern baseball era.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
What happened to the "All in or all out" attitude of last year?
Now theyre “Half in”??? Doesnt make sense.
If you think youre going for it and have a shot go friggin trade for a pitcher.
Reports are that Wolff started meddling
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by designatedforassignment on Apr 3, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
agree 100%
Some of the most violent things I’ve ever seen were at Raiders games. And I’ve been to jail. - leopold bloom
by designatedforassignment on Apr 3, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
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