Holland or Matusz
by mg050369 on Mar 7, 2009 10:07 AM EST
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PrintIn my recent prospect draft, I struggled between who to select, Holland or Matusz. I thought that Matusz had the higher floor (#2 or #3) but thought Holland had the higher ceiling (potential #1).
Before the draft I had Matusz higher on my board but went with Holland, choosing what I believed to be greater upside over a safer, more solid career.
You are on the clock. Who do you select? Who will have the better major league career?
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For now atleast....
Holland will have to pitch in Texas. I would have gone Matusz.
I think Matusz has higher potential than he's given credit for
Just because he doesn’t have one dominating pitch, doesn’t mean he can’t be a dominating starter. His multiple above-average offerings and his good control could help him become a pseudo-ace in a short while. I’m more conflicted on whether or not I’d rather have Matusz or Bowden.
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by The Congo Hammer on Mar 7, 2009 3:00 PM EST reply actions
+1
Lets see how Holland does in 09. He kind of came out of nowhere and his velocity went way up. Can he maintain it going forward? I think so… but Id be foolish to just ignore the downside here.
Matusz is more of a sure thing and has four average or plus pitches, smooth mechanics, great control and the pedigree that Holland doesnt.
There arent a whole lot of pitching prospects Id take over Holland, but Matusz is one of them.
Pedigree?
Are Brian Matusz’s parents Olympic swimmers or something? matusz was very good in 2007 as well btw.
Matusz: 4th overall pick, 1st round. Highly regarded college Ace, great stuff.
Holland: 748th overall pick, 25th round. Lowly regarded JuCo pitcher who didnt throw very hard (he suddenly started throwing harder in 2008)
Doesnt mean **** with regard to what kind of prospect they are now, but as a data point lets just say scouts and baseball people adored Matusz coming into the draft, and didnt think much of Holland. Obviously the fact we are even talking about Holland in the same neighborhood as Matusz speaks to what he has done so far to change those opinions – but in terms of pedigree going into their professional career youve got to give a huge edge to Matusz.
Maybe you dont put much stock in that sort of thing – totally reasonable to do that, and I dont really get hung up on where a guy was drafted… but i do look at it as one more bit of information to use. Its not determinative… but I think Im going to hang my hat on the 4th overall pick in this year’s draft for now… until he proves otherwise. Even then, I said it was pretty close… so this isnt some condemnation of Holland…
In Holland's defense
BA named him the sleeper from that organization in the lead-up to last year, so he didn’t quite come out of nowhere, though certainly nobody expected what he did.
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I have a hard time with this one until I see Matusz pitch on a regular basis
Until it is established that he can do it at the A+ or AA level, I have a hard time voting against Holland. Track record and level vs. potential. As good as he is advertised, he might struggle like a lot of pitchers do adjusting to the MILB schedule and travel.
No, he won't
We are in the business/ fun of projecting around here so allow me to do it for you. Brian Matusz isn’t going to have ANY problem in A+ or AA for that matter. Remember i told you and sorry you couldn’t see this before it happened. Might have been some use to you.
Holland
I like them both, but I feel that Derek Holland is one of the 5 best pitching prospects in baseball. Good fastball, good size, excellent control.
Nonsense
Just wanted to ask exactly WHY, WHY, WHY having star potential makes somebody dangerous or risky? Its a STUPID idea. There is absolutely ZERO evidence that because you think Holland has bigger potential to be a star that he is therefore more likely to be injured. You are more likely to injury YOURSELF with that kind of thinking.
If you think one player has better talent than another, unless there is a GOOD, LOGICAL reason to believe so the more talented player is A) likely to be better B) safer
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