Bust or Breakout?
by gore51 on Mar 4, 2009 7:20 PM EST
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PrintI have a few guys who I am wondering will become busts or will breakout into starters or useful players:
1. Radhames Liz (BALT) - I know he's got the stuff, but he has pretty bad command, what do you predict in his future?
2. Eugenio Velez (SF) - Love his speed, I think he is better suited for an OF position
3. Justin (J.R.) Towles (HOU) - I hope he becomes a much better player that his short ML stint last year. He hit very well last year in AAA.
4. Humberto Sanchez (NYY) - He is an oft-injured pitcher, but I think he will be a future pen guy, and I think a good one.
5. Neil Walker (PIT) - Once a huge catching prospect, now a struggling 3B, what will he end up as?
6. Jeremy Hermida (FLA) - Once a premier prospect, what happened to his plate discipline?
Others:
Sean Rodriguez, Noah Lowry, Kason Gabbard, Emilio Bonfacio, Matt Chico, Greg Reynolds, and Ian Stewart.
Thanks
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I'll give it a shot.
1. Liz: bust (best bet as a reliever)
2. Velez: bust
3. Towles: breakout
4. Sanchez: breakout (though he’ll continue to get hurt every few years)
5. Walker: bust
6. Hermida: breakout
Rodriguez: breakout
Lowry: bust
Gabbard: bust (maybe somewhat useful reliever)
Bonifacio: bust (maybe useful bench player/pinch runner)
Chico: bust
Reynolds: breakout (when healthy)
Stewart: breakout
Walker
I thought Walker looked like a bust before they moved him to third, and he looks even worse now. Why’d they move a guy who wasn’t hitting as expected to a less challenging defensive position? At this point, they’d be better off moving him back behind the plate and hoping he can become a backup or a half-regular, as his bat could play halfway decently there and his defense could get to the point of serviceability.
The reasoning I see them using is that with the less challenging position, that Walker might relax at the plate and become a much stronger hitter.
This strategy makes little sense to me when it comes to catchers, who typically are going to take a little longer to catch up anyway, especially when the guy’s bat is looking as fringy as Walker’s has. When the guy’s bat looks like it might be trouble at catcher, it seems ill-advised to move him to a position where he’s going to have to hit more on the assumption that playing an easier position will improve his bat that much (and it seems to have been a pretty bad move). I think you move guys off positions when there’s no way they’ll ever make the big club at that position or when their bats are ahead of their glove and you want to get them to the big league club faster by moving them to a less challenging defensive position. Neither of those things applies to Walker.
Walker
Initially, they made the move because they thought Ronnie Paulino was going to be a long-term solution behind the plate. Of course, Walker’s bat will almost certainly never play at a corner spot, and the whole Paulino thing didn’t work out at all. Double fail for Littlefield.
No way Walker finds a spot over LaRoche/Alvarez at third. My best guess is that he gets moved to second base at some point, finds himself playing some corner OF, and becomes a decent, versatile bench player with some pop. He’ll never grab a starting job, though, mostly thanks to poor contact and walk rates.
He has become a strong third baseman by a few accounts, though.
1. Radhames Liz (BAL) – BREAKOUT. He has a major league arm and electric stuff. I think he ends up in the pen, but this should be an interesting season with lots of Ks. Definitely a useful arm.
2. Eugenio Velez (SF) – BUST. Cant hit. I just dont see his tools ever translating.
3. Justin (J.R.) Towles (HOU) – BREAKOUT. I think he’s a decent catcher… just a run of the mill regular, though.
4. Humberto Sanchez (NYY) – BUST. Cant stay healthy… and there are questions about his stuff at this point.
5. Neil Walker (PIT) – BUST. Wont ever hit enough to be a MLB regular. Could be a useful bench player…
6. Jeremy Hermida (FLA) – BREAKOUT. I think he’s another solid, above average – if unspectacular – regular. Has a couple exciting season in him.
7. Sean Rodriguez (LAA) – BREAKOUT. Decent player Ive always liked. Is probably going to get Soscia’d out of playing time and a real chance to play.
8. Noah Lowry (SF) – BUST. I used to like him a lot
9. Kason Gabbard (TEX) – BREAKOUT. He could hang around for a long time as a back end of the rotation guy.
10. Emilio Bonfacio and Matt Chico – BUSTS.
11. Greg Reynolds and Ian Stewart – BREAKOUTS. Stewart more than Reynolds…
Gabbard is going to AAA this year to convert into a LOOGY.
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
How is Rodriguez going to get "Socia'd out of plaiying time"?
The Angels’ infield is pretty set- Kendrick, Aybar, Figgans and then Izturis and Wood figure to see some time. He doesn’t play because they have so much depth in the infield, not because Socia has a vendetta against him. I’d be surprised if Rodriguez wasn’t traded when camp breaks in April. Some team will suffer and injury up the middle and look for a utility guy.
I think Liz will breakout in 2010. I think the O’s will give him another year to start, maybe even at AAA. I think he will struggle in the starting role in the majors again and they will move him to the pen next year, and he will become a very solid power arm out of the pen.
I think Velez is pretty much a utility guy, and I don’t think there were too many around baseball who didn’t see it that way all along.
I like Towles, but the fact that Houston was on the market for a catcher most of the off-season is a bit troubling. I’m not ready to give up on him though, and I think that he could become a decent starting catcher in the next couple of years.
I don’t see Sanchez ever becoming more than a Mike Wuertz type of guy- FB/SLD who can work against righties. That’s not much of a return for Gary Sheffield, and there are big doubts of whether he will even reach that.
I must run, but I’ll finish my list in a couple of hours- I know you’re all dying to hear about it.
Eugenio Velez
Can you elaborate on the assertion that he “Cant hit”. After being recalled last season he slugged .411, despite hitting just one homerun. That’s fairly impressive. It’s the atrocious defense he played last season that has most people worried.
Well
the defense problems mean he’s probably not an infielder. His lack of power (and patience… and contact ability) makes me think he’ll never be a MLB regular.
Baseball Cube has his MLB SLG for last year at .382, fwiw.
The guy doesnt walk much and he doesnt hit for much power. As youve said, he’s not a good defender. He’s a toolsy guy who made his reputation off one very good year in A ball – and, oh yeah, he was 24 years old at the time.
I guess I shouldnt call him a bust as much as a “non-prospect.” Can someone no one should have ever expected to start in MLB be called a “bust?” In either case, I dont know what you see that would make you think this guys is a decent MLB hitter…
He slugged .411 in the second half of the season, after being recalled from the minors. I could have been more clear about that split in my above post. It is a significant point though, because the difference between his performance in the first couple months of the season, and that of after his recall, they are like day and night. As for what I’ve seen to make me think he is a decent hitter … the ball really jumps off his bat. I reserve that statement for guys with legit bat speed and ability to square the ball. I think the comps to Willie McGee that he earned last year from Kruk & Kuip were warranted. (I think the most accurate comp I heard from them was when they said he was somewhere between McGee and Chone Figgins.) Sure, he’s never going to be as successful or consistent as McGee, but he generates the same kind of legit contact, instead of simply relying on speed as his lanky build would suggest.
I’ll agree that Eugenio is more non-prospect than a bust.
I think tht his biggest problem is what lies between his ears. His first stint withh the Giants last year, how many times was he picked off at first? Even after his second trip he was picked twice.
You can argue that he hadn’t seen major league pickoff moves but at some point you have to catch up with the learning curve and I never saw that in him last year. Personally, I believe that this is his biggest issue in the field as well. All of that says to me there isn’t enough going on upstairs to be considered a prospect therefore not a bust. I imagine that he’d make an ok 5th outfielder/pinch hitter/base runner (as long as he keeps from getting picked off!)
And as far as Lowry is concerned I don’t think you can call a four year career with 40 wins, derailed by a whacky injury a bust. You wouldn’t call Dave Dravecy a bust because of the cancer. At this point if Lowry never pitches again it’s an unfortunate injury to a reasonably successful player.
Sean Rodriguez
is very under the radar. Check out his minor league stats, good walk rates with power and speed.
the short list
Liz – bust
Velez – bust
Towles – Breakout
Sanchez – semi-bust (solid but injury-prone middle reliever)
Walker – Bust
Hermida – Breakout
As for the others – breakout, bust, bust, bust, bust, bust, breakout
Stay far, far away from Liz. He is the destroyer of fantasy worlds.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Mar 5, 2009 1:27 AM EST reply actions
"What happened to his plate discipline"
There’s two kinds of discipline – good batting eye, and just not swinging enough at pitches in general. To me, Hermida falls into that latter category, so until he can show enough power that pitchers respect him more, they’ll continue to pound the zone and he won’t draw as many walks as his minor league record would indicate. He should still be a good player, but I doubt he’ll ever be the star some anticipated.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
1. Radhames Liz (BAL) – Nice arm, but will the control pan out? If it does, he will be good.
2. Eugenio Velez (SF) – UTL player
3. Justin (J.R.) Towles (HOU) – Decent year, not break out, but decent year.
4. Humberto Sanchez (NYY) – Injury prone, but could make it in the pen.
5. Neil Walker (PIT) – Will have a good year.
6. Jeremy Hermida (FLA) – If healthy, he will rake.
7. Sean Rodriguez (LAA) – UTL, but with Kendrick’s injury history who knows.
8. Noah Lowry (SF) – Injury this year, my call.
9. Kason Gabbard (TEX) – Should do ok
10. Emilio Bonfacio – he might do ok, but nothing special.
11. Matt Chico – Not much here..
12 Ian Stewart – This kid will break out this year for sure.
13. Greg Reynolds – Hope he breaks out, but being COL will hurt him a little.
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