2009 Draft Prospect: Stephen Strasburg, San Diego State

by John Sickels on Mar 3, 2009 6:54 PM EST

Several people have asked me to weigh in on Stephen Strasburg, the San Diego State right-hander expected to be the top talent in the 2009 draft.

Scouting reports on Strasburg are a series of superlatives. He's got a strong pitcher's frame at 6-4, 220, and has gotten himself in much better physical condition after drawing concerns about his weight and being "soft" when younger. He works at 95-97 MPH, has hit 100 a few times, and shows movement on the fastball. HIs breaking ball and changeup are above average, and he has exceptional command and control for a power pitcher.. Scouts also like his mound presence and overall pitching instincts.

Performance-wise, Strasburg has been outstanding: he posted a 1.57 ERA with a 133/16 K/BB ratio in 97 innings last year, 61 hits allowed, obviously outstanding performance at any level. This year he's been even better in two starts: 12.1 innings, 1.46 ERA, 27/3 K/BB, eight hits allowed. If he stays healthy this spring, and has non-insane bonus demands, Strasburg is the current favorite to go number one overall due to this combination of stuff, command, and performance.

So, how does he rank in comparison to other prospects? I've received many questions about where Strasburg would rank among current minor league pitching prospects. This is a difficult question since he hasn't pitched pro ball yet, and I tend to be conservative about players like that. On my Top 50 in the book, I think I would slot him at Number Four, behind Madison Bumgarner but ahead of Trevor Cahill and Rick Porcello. On a Top 100 list, he would rank in the 8-12 range.

Strasburg is all the rage,and with reason, but keep in mind that being "a polished college pitcher with great stuff and great command" doesn't mean you will be a great pro. It certainly helps load the odds in your favor, but you still have to throw the dice, and as the examples of Paul Wilson and Mark Prior show, you may still come up snake-eyes if injuries strike.

On that note, Kyle Boddy at Driveline Mechanics, part of SB Nation, has an interesting (and none-too-optimistic) breakdown of Strasburg's delivery last fall which you can find here.

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thanks for the writeup

hadnt heard anything about this guy.

by jsmall404 on Mar 3, 2009 8:31 PM EST reply actions

There are multiple reports on the net about his mechanics being poor. I’m pretty sure Chris O’Leary did a writeup and somewhere else I read from time to time but can’t seem to remember at the moment.

It’s definitely a concern but I think you would shoot yourself if you passed on him and he didn’t get hurt. Really a tough spot to be in, you almost wish you were the guy after them so you can say well I couldn’t pass him up, he shouldn’t have even dropped to me!

by jfish26101 on Mar 3, 2009 8:36 PM EST reply actions

Thursday

Strasburg’s going again on Thursday afternoon against San Diego (USD), and he’ll likely be going against Kyle Blair, a 2010 draft prospect, if Blair is on normal rest. A potentially better matchup would put Strasburg against Sammy Solis from USD, another 2010 draft prospect, but Solis has been experiencing tendinitis in his shoulder, and it’s not likely he’ll come back in such a pressure-packed environment.

In other words, watch how Strasburg does against both a quality lineup in USD and against a quality pitcher in Blair on Thursday afternoon, as San Diego’s easily the best team he’s faced so far.

by Andy Seiler on Mar 3, 2009 9:22 PM EST reply actions

Thanks, John.

Webmaster of Driveline Mechanics
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com - An Unconventional Look at Scouting

by Kyle Boddy on Mar 3, 2009 10:41 PM EST reply actions

Any general consensus

shaping up for the draft this year overall? It’s early, but is there a general feeling about strengths and weaknesses?

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Mar 3, 2009 11:52 PM EST reply actions

College pitching...

Seems to be the Strength..Strasburg, Crow (not exactly college), Alex White, Kyle Gibson, Andy Oliver, Volz, and Alex Wilson to name guy who could go in the first round…

Doesnt seem like there are any star level high scool position players other than Donovan Tate

by jsmall404 on Mar 4, 2009 12:49 AM EST reply actions

Umm...

Pretty much agree, but add in Mychal Givens on top of Tate for the HS position talent. And add in Tanner Scheppers to the first round pot if you’re going to include Crow.

by Andy Seiler on Mar 4, 2009 1:02 AM EST up reply actions

Prior as Cautionary Tale

If I were the Cubs and given the option of drafting Prior again, I’d do it in a heartbeat. Perhaps he was destined to get very, very hurt, but I don’t think you can look at Prior’s case and ignore the fact that he was very abused as a young pitcher. Either way, you draft the guy every time. If managed properly, I still think he could have been great, and he WAS a great pro – in the majors, no less – until Dusty Baker tore his arm off and beat him with it.

I don’t think Prior is the argument against great college pitchers being great major leaguers, I think he’s the case you point to when you need to say that great college pitchers still need to be treated as young players, and you need to avoid the temptation to treat them as seasoned pros, no matter what their performance.

by Fanon on Mar 4, 2009 8:19 AM EST reply actions

+1

For all the Internet HYSTERIA about the dreaded inverted W, the root cause of Prior’s demise was the unconscionable abuse Dusty put that arm though. If he had a manager with two working brain cells, he’d still be the perennial Cy Young candidate everyone thought he’d be.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Mar 4, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions

+1

which is my point..they are tons of factors going into a player getting hurt..so to point to one and say, “yeah that is what did it” and “since it happened to Prior it might happen to someone else” seems silly to me.

by jsmall404 on Mar 4, 2009 11:40 AM EST up reply actions

-.5

He was overworked but that could just be an excuse. You really don’t know if it was the innings on his arm or the poor mechanics. Someone who feels it is his mechanics can just as easily say it wasn’t the innings, it was the mechanics and I’m guessing from your post you would disagree completely and blame Baker…which is the much more popular course of action on the internet then actually studying Prior’s mechanics for reasons why his arm may have worn down.

jsmall404, you can say the same thing about innings pitched. Why is it such a problem now and it wasn’t 20 years ago? Why can pitchers like CC and Santana and Lincecum take the innings and other pitchers can’t. Your argument here is sort of hypocritical, you are using reasoning to debunk why some feel the problem is related to mechanics (show me proof that there is a definite correlation) and then making the same mistake by saying it was the innings pitched (you have no direct correlation that proves it was innings pitched). At one point in time, pitchers had never dreamed of throwing the ball so it curves or sinks until someone did it. At one point in time, walks were looked at as a negative for a hitter because you went up there to hit. Are you really telling me that there is nothing to the evidence suggesting that certain types of mechanics are far more likely to lead to specific types of injuries? This cyclical argument we have going here is getting nowhere and I’m pretty shocked how stubborn you are being by simply repeating “show me proof” over and over. No offense, I’m not meaning it as an insult, but that was something I’d do in grade school. :D

by jfish26101 on Mar 4, 2009 12:48 PM EST up reply actions