Take Your Pick: Joey Votto vs. Chris Davis
by gore51 on Mar 3, 2009 12:43 AM EST
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PrintWho do you think in the long should turn out to be the better overall player (all attributes included, defense etc.), Joey Votto or Chris Davis? Both of these players have big upside, Davis has the obvious power edge, but Votto has plate discipline and a decent amount of speed. Defensively, I give Votto the edge at 1B. Davis also plays pretty poor 3B and Votto can also play a corner outfield position. Everything I have read ranks them pretty evenly, with Davis catching up to Votto's status over the last few years.
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I said Votto but they are really different types of players. I think Votto will have higher BA, OBP and better defense while Davis obviously has more power and perhaps a boost in value if he can stay at 3B without being utterly atrocious. If Votto were to move to the OF and can’t play RF (where I’m assuming Bruce will be) then I probably give the edge back over to Davis even if he is only a 1B. This probably comes down to personal preference and I like good contact + plate discipline more then power.
not if
your league takes a point for each strikeout like mine does.
by richieabernathy on Mar 3, 2009 8:48 AM EST up reply actions
i've read your many posts on here
and you sound dumb.
by richieabernathy on Mar 4, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions
Eh...
I think Davis is going to have next to no defensive value at all since he will likely only be able to play 1B for a couple years until he moves to DH, but at the same time, Votto likely will have to move to the OF once Alonso is ready. Of course, if either one gets traded (or Smoak or Alonso gets traded), then I give the nod to the one that actually stays at 1B.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Not following you...
Votto’s real life value would increase if he moves to the OF…
The positional adjustments are:
First Base: -12.5 runs
Left Field: -7.5 runs
Right Field: -7.5 runs
and
Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs
Take Davis
Unless Votto changed something drastic with his swing or workouts, that rookie year was part-fluke. He’d never topped 22 homers in the minors, he’s three years removed from posting a .755 OPS in A+ ball as a 21 year old, and his strikeout rate was somehow lower his rookie season than it was in any season of minor league ball. Something’s not adding up.
Votto's power is real
Look at the hittracker data from 2008 – he was among the league leaders in adjusted average HR distance (it normalizes for altitude, wind, park factors, etc). I think his 2008 HR/SLG/IsoP numbers are sustainable, and even have some room for growth.
Cool site, thanks. Question though...
I’m looking at his hittracker page, and in almost every case Votto’s actual distance is shorter than his true distance. Isn’t Great American a hitter’s ballpark?
And I’m not sure how much stock I put into this average HR distance stat – Albert Pujols below Kevin Kouzmanoff? Mark Teixiera behind Melvin Mora? We’re talking sample sizes as small as 20 here, and while it’s telling to see that Votto can really crack one, I wouldn’t say that’s an indication of high home run totals. Torii Hunter was 3rd overall this year and he’s topped 30 hr once in his career.
He did change his approach since A+ ball
And the changes are well-documented. He’s always had batting practice power, is it so hard to believe that it might turn into game power as his discipline has improved?
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Frankly, his power didn't pick up that much
Even in A+ ball his ISOP was .169. Since then it’s gone up to the low .200s, but that’s as easily explained by him getting a little older and closer to his peak ages than by any change of approach (though that might very well be a factor as well). The bigger improvement seems to be a solid decline in his strikeouts, and probably hitting a few more line drives. He’s quite clearly improved, though
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Going from 22 HRs in 508 ABs and 496 Abs
to 24 HRs in 526 ABs, particularly as he went up from being 22 and 23 to 24 isn’t that surprising. That he maintained this production as he went up from AA to AAA to the majors is more gratifying than astonishing
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my mancrush on Votto started before my mancrush on Davis did, so I voted Votto as I think Davis will end up as a DH in the long run, though that’s not necessarily his fault. It’s really a toss up as each brings something a little different to the table, but both are high quality young guys. I’d love either player to be on my favorite team.
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 3, 2009 1:05 PM EST reply actions
One more thing about Votto
If you look at his splits, there’s some interesting stuff to indicate none of last year was a fluke.
He carried a 25% LD% over 670 PA’s across two seasons (that last year was inline with his debut is the kicker for me).
Other than his K%, he showed zero real platoon split. I find this very impressive for a young left-handed hitter.
He also showed very minimal home/road split in his power numbers, so you can’t really chalk the power up to playing at the GAP.
It's just 670 PA though
not a huge sample size, especially compared to the 2900+ minor league PAs of mediocrity.
Sometimes people improve
I realize he had a bad year in A+, but that was 4 years ago when he was 21. He’s now 25 years old and has had not only those excellent 670 PAs in the major leagues, but also 2 very good seasons in AA and AAA for a total of 1168 PAs. I think we can give him a pass for what he did in 2005
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If he improved, he improved
and there’s no way I know to figure that out without seeing him play more.
His AA numbers were good, but his AAA numbers were mediocre. A 23 year old 1B posting a .859 OPS with 110 K’s in 133 games? That sounds more like “platoon player” to me than “future star”.
His .859 OPS in AAA
looks exactly like his major league performance – he hits for a reasonable average because though he strikes out a fair amount of times (a K rate in the upper teens isn’t bad for a power hitter), he hits a decent amount of homers and also hits a heck of a lot of line drives that give him a higher BABIP.
I’m really not sure why you don’t like him. He isn’t a superstar of course, and I agree that he isn’t a future star, but a 24 year old with good power (ISOP of .169, .228, .190, .205), good walk totals (9.8, 13.3, 11.5, 10.0), solid K totals (18.5%, 18.5, 17.3), who’s put up very solid OPS’ (.955, .864, .867) seems pretty worthwhile to me as a regular.
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I'm not high on him because AAA stats for a 23 year old aren't supposed to
equal major league stats for a 24 year old.
Here are the 23 year olds with the highest OPSs in AAA in 2006:
Chris Iannetta: .950
Bryan Lahair: .921
Willy Aybar: .916
Carlos Quentin: .911
Shin-Soo Choo: .893
Alberto Callaspo: .882
Kendry Morales: .879
Bronson Sardinha: .857
Justin Huber: .838
Every one of those players has seen a significant drop in major league production besides Carlos Quentin. Quentin is an understandable exception since he posted an even higher .942 OPS in AAA the year before as a 22 year old.
Votto didn’t. He was always a year older than most elite prospects are at each level, and even so his career minor league numbers are just okay for a 1B. I think he’s more of a .770 OPS player than an .870.
eh?
I was under the impression that 23 was about the normal age for a player in AAA, then a debut in the majors at 24… this doesn’t seem that far out there…
Frankly an argument of “these less highly touted players failed in their major league debuts so the fact that a more highly touted player did not must be a mirage” is rather specious…
I named some fairly elite prospects there
I question what you think a stronger argument is than “players before him who did the same thing at the same level at the same age did this → therefore I have reason to believe he’ll do that also”.
Line drive percentage over 670 plate appearances doesn’t really mean a whole lot.
For the record,
In 2007, BA rated Votto #43, Callaspo #82, Iannetta #92, and the others not at all (Quentin was no longer regarded a prospect because he had more than 130 ABs in the major leagues, but the previous year was rated #20). In the major leagues, Votto has had a .878 OPS, Quentin an .864, Callaspo a .690, Iannetta an .808. Of the non-rated players on the list (i.e. not elite prospects), Lahair had a .661, Choo .870, Morales a .710, Sardinha has had 9 ABs, and Huber a .575.
From this admittedly extremely quick and dirty glance, it seems like 3 of the 4 highly rated people on this list have done quite well so far in the majors, while 1 of 5 of the non-highly rated people have done well. Which seems about what we might expect from any list of prospects
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Line Drive Percentage over 2 years?
Keep in mind that ~90 PA’s of that sample are from 2007. When I see a 25% LD% in that few PA’s, I do think fluke. Then I see the exact same thing repeated the next year over another 590 PA’s, and it kind of reinforces that he may really be making a lot of hard contact.
Aren't "supposed" to?
Statistics tell you an awful lot of things, but as Bill James says, they are necessarily retrospective. Some players regress as they age, others progress, and others remain exactly the same. You have to be flexible in analyzing a player, and not be constrained by the one aspect of the data. You’re telling me, for example, that because many of the 10 players with outstanding OPS in AAA at that age did not become productive major leaguers, that tells me that one particular player won’t. What I see is that that list includes both excellent and not excellent major leaguers, meaning it doesn’t prove anything in either direction. All we know from this list is that Votto could be Carlos Quentin and he could be Bronson Sardinha. You have to look further than just OPS and age.
I could note that Sardinha put up those stats in 185 ABs, and in his other 304 ABs that year in AA had a .704 OPS, and that the previous year he had a .735 OPS. I could note that Callaspo had a .790 OPS the year before and a .754 the year before that, and a .732 OPS in the majors this year, suggesting that his .882 was the outlier. Votto, on the other hand, didn’t just have an OPS above .850 in AAA but one over .950 in AA, and most importantly, one over .850 for more than a season in the major leagues. Of course this doesn’t mean that he will continue to hit like this next year, but I think he’s a pretty good bet
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I see your point, and I'm by no means saying he can't improve
Chase Utley was crap in the minors, but I’m fairly sure he’s capable of another .900 OPS season because he’s proved it for so long. And Votto could certainly be in the same category.
But I’m saying it’s rare. And you have to be flexible too – just because a player had a good rookie season doesn’t mean he’ll have a good sophomore season. Look at Hunter Pence or Reggie Willits from just two years ago. Both players had minor league numbers that suggested their rookie years were outliers, and true to form, they both came back to earth in their second years.
You're absolutely right that Votto might not do as well next year
And I certainly don’t expect him to ever be a star, let alone a superstar. But all indications suggest that he is a very good hitter and a very good player. Considering you think (as I do) that Chris Davis probably won’t be much more than an .820 hitter, I think Votto is probably the better bet
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I'll check back with you in a year :)
I like Votto, I hope I’m wrong.
whoa, Davis not much more than an .820 hitter?
Care to explain that?
Doctor please. Some more of these.
You're right
I’m probably undervaluing him fairly significantly
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If you look a little deeper
The outliers in the underlying stats aren’t quite there for Votto like they were with Pence and Willits. I don’t really see anything in the underlying stats about Votto that scream “fluke”.
Votto is catching up
Votto grew up in Canada, where baseball can only be played in the summer months. He was still selected in the second round of the draft so he had talent. His path reminds me of another converted canadian catcher, Justin Morneau. Votto isn’t quite on Morneaus level as a hitter, but should still be a regular 1B for a long time in this league, maybe making a couple all star teams in his best years
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