Hello Fanon,

You provide some nice thoughts and arguments regarding your picks.

A couple points though about the Twins and Indians, both of which I see battling it out for the AL Central. I’m not sure if the White Sox or Royals is the likelier of the two to be in the mix as well (I can see the White Sox regressing – age is becoming a major factor with many of their position players, and their bullpen, outside of Jenks, is questionable; I’m not sure if the Royals will make noise in 2009 or 2010, but I think their ability to compete will improve in the near future. The Tigers, they need a lot of things to go right for them to really be in the hunt, in my opinion. So far in Spring Training, that doesn’t seem to be the case – Bonderman’s health, Robertson reportedly has an injury, what will you get from Sheffield, both Zumaya and Rodney are on the disabled list, how effective will Lyon be as the closer, etc.).

Regarding the Indians, I think Lee can have a solid to above-average year, despite some questionable outings in the spring. I’m not sure anyone is realistically expecting him to go 22-3 again, but I think he is a solid bet to win anywhere from 14-18, especially if the Indians’ offense is consistent.

One guy who you have to keep in mind and who may be the real key to the Indians’ rotation is Fausto Carmona. He was injured for part of 2008, plus he also had a hitch or “jump” in his delivery, which is likely why his command was so poor. The Indians have monitored and adjusted his delivery to where he’s not jumping as much through his follow-through, and if the spring is any indication, his command is much sharper than it was in 2008. Only time will tell, but I think Carmona is a better bet, provided he stays healthy, to come closer to his 2007 season than his 2008 season. He may not, and probably won’t, win 19 games like he did in 2007 (though if he gets enough offensive support where he’s not losing or taking NDs in low-scoring games, he could), but I think 14-18 wins by him is a decent to solid possibility.

Carmona is really the key to the rotation because, if he doesn’t bounce back, then I think your statement about the “rest of the rotation being ugly” is more accurate; otherwise, the Indians have a quality 1-2 punch with Lee and Carmona, much like the Royals have as toonsterwu pointed out. If one of the three guys from the last three pitching spots can step up, and I think that’s a reasonable possibility that one of the back three (between Pavano, Reyes, Lewis/Laffey/Sowers/Huff) will put up a decent to solid year, then the Indians’ rotation isn’t that bad. Also factor in how much Westbrook can bring to the table in the second half of 2009 – granted, he won’t be 100 percent, but even a 75-80 percent Westbrook might be enough to stabilize the back-part of the rotation if Lee and Carmona are doing solid to good and one of the other three is decent to solid. Certainly, there are question marks with the Indians’ rotation.

However, I don’t think the Twins’ rotation is without question marks either, mostly because of their young age and lack of experience. Often, there are fallbacks and adjustment periods that most players will go through in their second full seasons, and I think that can apply to several of the Twins’ young starters, including Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, and Baker. I don’t think it’s realistic to expect all four of them to be able to duplicate their success from last season – particularly, I think Blackburn and Perkins are the two bigger question marks, whereas Baker and Slowey may be better able to duplicate their 2008 seasons, with a bump or two here or there.

Additionally, will Liriano stay consistent with his command – every so often, he seems to have a hiccup in terms of locating the baseball. Plus, I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect him to be the “old” Liriano – I’m not sure he will be that pitcher again, though he can still be quite effective, and has been for the most part this Spring from what I have heard and read (which has only been marginal reports).

I think, however, the biggest disagreement I have with your assessment of the two teams is in regards to the bullpens – I think the Indians’ whole bullpen is stronger than the Twins. Outside of Nathan, the Twins, to me, have a bunch of question marks and lack of solid track records to rely on. They no longer have Reyes (now in St. Louis), and he was one of their more dependable relievers. Guerrier has been decent to solid, but I’m not sure he’s a consistent 7th-8th inning guy. Breslow has looked solid for them, though he doesn’t have a long track record to be comfortable relying on him for 7th-8th inning work either. Bonser is an enigma in my opinion – he sometimes looks very dominant, and other times, he looks like he doesn’t know where the stuff is going or how to command it, so he’s very inconsistent – not someone you can totally rely upon. As for the others, they’re either young, without considerable ML track records, or both.

Contrast that to the Indians’ bullpen, where the Indians finally have a bona-fide stopper in Kerry Wood, a guy who has virtually comparable stuff and dominant ability to Nathan. Granted, Wood does have an injury history (though as a starter, not as a reliever/closer), doesn’t have the track record Nathan has as a closer, nor has done it in the AL, but if Wood stays healthy (a considerable if, but a higher chance of that as a reliever in the data we have), he should certainly be an upgrade over Borowski and even Wickman before him.

Then you have LHP Rafael Perez, who had a decent to solid year in 2008 until very late in the season (better than Betancourt and probably better than Lewis) and a great year in 2007 – he’s also looked very good this spring with the Indians and with the Dominican in the WBC. I’d take him over Reyes, who’s no longer in Minnesota, and Breslow (who was with the Indians briefly).

You then have RHP Jensen Lewis – while some may question his “stuff,” (only reaching around 90-91, sometimes 92-93), he still gets above-average results with his "no-holds-barred’ demeanor, and at times, has shown the ability to dominate out of the bullpen, even saving 11/12 or 12/13 out of the bullpen in late 2008.

You also have to factor in RHP Joe Smith, who has looked very good in the spring as well – I think he certainly adds quality relief to a bullpen that was very questionable in 2008; this way, the Indians don’t have to rely on guys like Kobayashi or Mujica to pitch the 6th-7th innings that often. That is also an upgrade.

I think that is the back-end of the Indians’ bullpen, and I think that is better than the back-end of the Twins’ bullpen. Yes, Nathan is very good, but the ones in front of him are question marks, as are the front-end of that bullpen.

Regarding the Indians’ front-end of the bullpen, one guy who could really tip the scales in the Indians’ favor in my opinion is RHP Rafael Betancourt. His results this spring have been mixed from what I have seen – some outings, he looks more like the “old” Betancourt (from 2003-2007), other outings, he looks more like the Betancourt from 2008. His entire track record would suggest that he should still be a solid reliever, not as good as in 2007, but somewhere between his 2003-2006 performances, which would still put him solidly average to above-average, and arguably, better than what the Twins have in the same position in their bullpen. If Betancourt can be that reliever, or even nudge closer to his 2007 form, that certainly gives the Indians a distinct advantage in regards to their entire bullpen.

Kobayashi and Zack Jackson, the last two spots in the bullpen, are certainly question marks. Kobayashi has not looked good very often this spring, and he likely will not be used much. If he falters in the early going, it’s possible he’ll be released. As for Jackson, he has an option left, and he’s mostly up here for long-relief, in the event that the Indians’ rotation does experience some growing pains early on in the season. His spot, though, could also be a revolving door for other relievers down at AAA Columbus, including the following

RHP Juan Salas (the former Ray)
RHP Eddie Mujica (IF he passes through waivers, which is debatable)
LHP Tony Sipp (one to watch, as he is now fully recovered from TJ surgery, and has thrown the ball well for the most part this spring)
RHP Jon Meloan (still needs to adapt back to the bullpen after not succeeding as a starter with the Dodgers, but his track record would suggest that he has the ability to become a dominating reliever, so he’s another one to watch)
RHP Adam Miller (no, that’s NOT a misprint – reports are that Miller will NOT have the surgery on the tip of his middle finger, as reports suggest his command has improved considerably since relying more on his forefinger to command the baseball; reportedly, Miller is not feeling any pain either. Certainly, Miller is a HUGE question mark, but if he’s staying healthy and being effective, certainly he’ll factor into the bullpen mix in 2009 as well).

Combine all that and I’d have to give the Indians the edge in the bullpen in 2009 – the top 4 I pointed out alone should put it squarely in the Indians’ favor, no matter how dominant Nathan is. If Betancourt returns to pre-2008 levels (and that’s not necessitating a return to his 2007 form), that will put it more squarely in the Indians’ favor. Therefore, I think you have to give the edge of the bullpens to the Indians’ – both on track record and stuff.

Regarding the offenses of the two teams, the main problem I have with the Twins’ lineup is that it is too dependent on Mauer and Morneau, and right now, Mauer is a BIG question mark. If he’s out for any length of time, that will put more pressure on Morneau, who has shown he can be a bit streaky. Guys like Cuddyer and Punto, along with the younger ones like Span and Young, can help, but I don’t think you can depend on them to carry the ballclub for any length of time. If Mauer is out for any length of time, this team may really have trouble scoring runs. Crede could also help, but that’s provided he stays healthy playing most days on field-turf, which reportedly is not great for players with back problems, which Crede has dealt with repeatedly over the last few seasons.

As for the Indians, certainly a return by Hafner to 2004-2006 levels would clearly give the Indians the edge offensively over the Twins. However, I’m not sure or even confident he will return to that level (right now, if he could put up his 2007 level or a bit better than that, I’d be happy with just that). If Hafner can come back to his 2007 level or thereabouts (preferably, a bit better), than I think the Indians’ offense, as some experts and analysts have said, could put the Indians in the upper-echelon of offenses, since they would have a “big-bopper” in the middle of their lineup. Combine that with Victor Martinez, who is healthy and showing some power in the early-going (he has at least 3 HRs in the spring), as well as Jhonny Peralta, who is one of the better-hitting SSs in the league, and the Indians have a very solid middle-of-the-order already.

That doesn’t even take into account Choo, who likely isn’t the 995 OPS (or whatever it was in 2008), but who can probably post an .800+ or even .850+ OPS batting from the 6th spot, and again, the middle-of-the-order favors the Indians.

DeRosa’s addition should also help – he’s displayed some power in the Spring, but certainly should do a very solid job in the #2 spot even if he doesn’t hit for power. You certainly can’t forget about Sizemore in the leadoff spot either, who probably is a very solid bet to hit 30+ HRs again.

Add in a mixture of Shoppach, Garko, and Francisco, who have shown signs of being solid hitters with some power mixed in (especially Shoppach), and I think the Indians’ lineup 1-9 has many more options they can rely on to contribute and keep scoring droughts to a minimum, something I’m not that convinced about with the Twins’ lineup. Add in also that the Indians have reinforcements like LaPorta, Brantley, Crowe, Valbuena, and Hodges at AAA Columbus, and I think the Indians also have more options to rely upon in case someone is ineffective and/or injured. I’m not sure the Twins have that depth (they may have 1-2 guys, perhaps – I’m not really sure, but I don’t think they have 5 quality hitters/prospects at AAA like the Indians do).

Overall, I could see the Twins only winning 80-85 games. If most or everything breaks right for them (such as the pitching staff performing as well in 2009 as it did in 2008), they might reach or crack 90, but I think the same thing could be said for the Indians, or as you mentioned, they might only win 85. This could be one of those years where 85-87 wins wins this division (and potentially, all 5 teams in this division could do that if enough things break right for them).

I think the AL Central will be an interesting one to watch – I think it’s a question of how many things go right for which teams, who stays healthier, whose players and reinforcements come up big, and who can establish themselves early on in the season that will likely determine who emerges from the AL Central in 2009.

Just my 2 cents.

Again, appreciate the thoughts and comments.

Take care and have a great day!