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Breakouts and Busts

2 thing you see a lot of growth of in high school.

Seriously though, as the end of spring training nears I thought it would be interesting to see people's views on what prospects might breakout this year and which ones might see their value drop-off a notch. The reasons for nominating a player do not necessarily have to be justified by scouting or stats, just a gut instinct is fine for this. Also, it does not have to be top-prospects being mentioned here, as long as the player is a prospect than it should be of interest.

Here is a quick list of players I compiled off the top my head.

Breakout Year

Tyson Gillies- I think he really will bust out this year in A-ball and show growth along the lines of what Michael Saunders did, with more speed, defense, and plate discipline but less power. Based off reports of him being a good citizen and hard worker in the organisation.

Mario Martinez-One of the Mariners' less heralded international signings in the past years. I see him passing DeJesus and Norriega by having improved plate discipline and growth in power.

John Mayberry- If given plenty of playing time, can be a sleeper candidate for NL ROY in my opinion. I am believer in his power that still has room for more growth and ability to handle strike zone well.

Jose Tabata- I think this year he will step up offensively in terms of contact and plate discipline, power will not come this year though.

Mitch Maier- My gut tells me he is going to experience growth in power and has he makes better contact through a better approach at the plate. Combined with good defense, will be a valuable LF/CF/RF.

Balbino Fuenmayor- I see him really having a great year in full-season ball by further reducing his K % and increasing his power #s.

Dropoff

Greg Halman- I think he has been overrated quite a bit by hitting well in the Cal league and the having a hot streak for half a season at AA. He really has issues with making contact and pitch recognition that came out in his K/BB ration in the AFL and in the WBC(SSS caveat).

Ivan DeJesus- I think he will regress more offensively while more questions about his defensive ability arise.

Jhoulys Chacin- Wear on his arm from jump in IP from 2007-2008 and advanced placement in AAA will see him struggle in a hitter friendly Colorado Springs.

Jeff Samardzija- Will return to struggles in turning his great stuff into actual results. He has potential to succeed but he is not as advanced as his numbers showed last year.

Chris Carter- Is another guy with contact issues and Cal league inflation that will regress in value in his first encounter with AA. Like Halman he has great potential but has some way to go still.

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Some Rays players:

Along with the young pitching prospects (Moore and Barnese), I think two guys will have put-up or shut-up type years. Reid Brignac either hits and cements himself as a top SS prospect or doesn’t and is relegated to nice player. Similarly, Hellickson dominated A+ last year but struggled a bit at AA. If he proves that he can pitch well (which I think he will) I’d bet he flies up prospect lists.

by rglass44 on Mar 27, 2009 1:30 PM EDT reply actions  

Ivan de Jesus

I would say he is due for a drop off considering he broke his leg and is out for the year LOL

by jsmall404 on Mar 27, 2009 1:38 PM EDT reply actions  

lol 1 for 11 already

Never heard about the injury but it could impair his defensive range upon returning. It strikes me as odd that he is out the entire year with a broken leg, I thought that it would take 2/3 months at most to recover, but I do not know the details so there probably is a reason.

by tdot mariner fan on Mar 27, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bill Rowell

is in for a put up or shut up season. Many have already written him off, Im giving him one more season to prove to me whether he IS what the O’s thought he WAS when he was drafted

by QBsIllest1 on Mar 27, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions  

Guys on the Fringes

I really like these guys to make an impact and get some hype this season:

Ryan Kalish
Michael Almanzar
Jaff Decker
Matt Moore
Ryan Westmoreland

by Ophidian on Mar 27, 2009 2:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Kalish

This is the second year in a row he will reportedly be returning to full strength after injury. He was supposed to be healthy last year but he struggled and it was chalked up to lingering injury. Hopefully that doesn’t become a trend.

Alamanzar on the other hand is still relatively young for his level iirc. Of course we’d like to see something from him but even minor progression is a plus.

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Mar 27, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1 on Westmoreland

The way I talk about this guy, you would think I am his father or soemthign. But in all seriousness, I think this kid can be the next Vlad! If he can stay away from injuries he will be an all-star!!!!!

by Summa Slugga on Mar 27, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions  

He's only out until June.

And he’ll probably pick up with Lowell. He’ll still only be 19…

by Andy Seiler on Mar 27, 2009 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tigers

I can see Wilkin Ramirez dropping off a little in AAA due to his poor plate discipline. Provided he can improve it, he’ll be a great player, but otherwise he’s mediocre. I can also see Dusty Ryan struggling somewhat- he’s probably not as good as he was in the Majors last year.

I can also see Casey Crosby breaking out. He seems to have a lot of his stuff left after TJS and he’s got a ton of potential. I can see him going crazy in Lo-A and landing himself on the back end of top 100 lists by the end of the year.

by David Tokarz on Mar 27, 2009 2:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Breakouts and Busts

Breakouts:
Michael Pineda
Austin Gallagher
David Cooper

Busts:
Kyle Skipworth
Greg Halman
Derek Holland

by Summa Slugga on Mar 27, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions  

Pineda

I don’t really see how a guy like Pineda, whose stats are way ahead of his stuff, can be a breakout candidate. 2008 was his breakout. 2009 is his chance to prove he can sustain it.

by slamcactus on Mar 27, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gallagher

36? Doubles in A+ ball at age 19? I think that’s the sign of some serious power. 290 BA as well.

A noob or n00b is someone that lacks intellegance or common sense, most people think that noob is a word used only in the online gaming world, but in reality it is becoming an ever popular word with teenage society.

a noob could be simply a level 100 running round shouting ‘’WTF DO I GO!?’’ or someone calling someone else a noob and then getting hit with a brick, anyone can call anyone a noob, but normally they are noobs themselves
-robert_d_wilfong

by cwhitman412 on Mar 30, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Cal League

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Mar 30, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

splits

home: .245/.294/.309
away: .325/.383/.572

Cal League

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Mar 31, 2009 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Breakouts

All three guys struggled with injuries in 08:

Desmond Jennings, TB
Jose Martinez, CWS
Matt Sweeney, LAA

ProspectTube.com

You Video. You Scout.

by ProspectTube.com on Mar 27, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Breakouts and Busts

Breakouts

Shelby Ford
Josh Vitters
Robbie Grossman
Jordan Danks
Ethan Martin

Busts

Trevor Cahill
Carlos Carrasco
Jordan Schafer
Ben Revere
Adrian Cardenas

by joegonzo on Mar 27, 2009 3:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Cahill

Interesting you have him here, I’d like to hear why you think so.

by DJSlam on Mar 28, 2009 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

Just because

Just because my friend. It probably has nothing to do with the fact that of all minor leaguers 2 of the 5 “busts” happen to be A’s prospects either. Although, I do have to agree on Carrasco. I think he may be a mid-back of the rotation type arm at some point, but I think he’s pretty overrated and won’t be as good as some think. The fact of the matter is only time will tell on all of these guys.

by JPShark on Mar 28, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Schafer?

You really think Jordan Schafer will be a bust? My expectations for him have gone way up this spring.

Is he a bust if he earns Atlanta’s starting CF job (which he already has – whether he gets it or not…) and puts up mediocre numbers?

by parish on Mar 30, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Tabata's wife/grandma problems

may keep him from “busting out” (though she will want to).

by VladiHondo on Mar 27, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions  

cradle robber issues aside

I think he could use baseball as an outlet to help him offset his personal problems but who knows really, I do not want to start playing armchair physcologist here.

by tdot mariner fan on Mar 27, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dejesus

Well, I think the fact that he broke his leg and is out for the year will help to contribute to his dropoff in value this year….

He is only 22, so the injury shouldn’t hinder his development too much

by Caernarvon on Mar 28, 2009 1:10 AM EDT reply actions  

Without the injury

I would have had him as a breakout candidate. I like what the kid might turn into. Hopefully he bounces back from this awful injury.

by JPShark on Mar 28, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Defensive woes

I have read several reports questioning his ability to defend well not only at SS but at 2B now. If he continues to degrade defensively he would have to add quite a bit of power along with maintaining the on base skills he has right now.

by tdot mariner fan on Mar 28, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think Chacin will be just fine....

His arm motion is very smooth and repeatable, and he obviously doesn’t rely much on fastball….Look for him to reach the big club sometime this summer.

As for breakouts, look for Rashun Dixon to really jump up Oaklands depth chart.

by soccerman0 on Mar 28, 2009 4:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Chacin

I can see having a bit of a dead arm issues just from general fatigue, it is good for his future that he is not reliant on breaking balls for an out pitch.

Dixon seems like Oakland’s version of Michael Wilson after he was drafted, if he adjusts well after focusing on baseball he could be a very good regular with great power.

by tdot mariner fan on Mar 28, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

What leads you to think...

..Chacin will have dead arm issues? He has been good/great this spring (asside from one bad inning) and the club is truly ecstatic about his progress.

by soccerman0 on Mar 28, 2009 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

pitched 70 more innings than last year

There have been many pitchers that experience a temporary loss of velocity and/or stuff after a big jump in innings pitched from the previous year. This is usually happens to pitchers that depend on breaking balls but other pitchers are not exempt from it. I think he is going to see a drop in velocity, working in high 80s peaking at 90-91, instead of working around 90. This is mostly gut instinct though.

.Not to mention Colorado Springs is the kind of park hitters feast off of a lower velocity fastball, though his impressive changeup will help him survive

by tdot mariner fan on Mar 28, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Chacin

Chacin sat at 92 last year and touched 94. You have him a couple MPH too slow.

by rdf8585 on Mar 28, 2009 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bingo

Plus he is expected to see continued velocity improvement as he gets used to his frame (he grew several inches last year). He throws two FB that have good movement, I don’t think he will have any troubles unless he does get a dead arm.

Regardless, this kid has a great work ethic by all accounts so I don’t expect conditioning to be an issue either.

by soccerman0 on Mar 29, 2009 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Derrick Robinson

i still believe. he has had a great spring.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Mar 28, 2009 5:03 PM EDT reply actions  

Breakout

Cole Rohrbough

Tommy Hanson 4 ROY

by timmy3 on Mar 30, 2009 11:12 AM EDT reply actions  

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