Breakouts and Busts
2 thing you see a lot of growth of in high school.
Seriously though, as the end of spring training nears I thought it would be interesting to see people's views on what prospects might breakout this year and which ones might see their value drop-off a notch. The reasons for nominating a player do not necessarily have to be justified by scouting or stats, just a gut instinct is fine for this. Also, it does not have to be top-prospects being mentioned here, as long as the player is a prospect than it should be of interest.
Here is a quick list of players I compiled off the top my head.
Breakout Year
Tyson Gillies- I think he really will bust out this year in A-ball and show growth along the lines of what Michael Saunders did, with more speed, defense, and plate discipline but less power. Based off reports of him being a good citizen and hard worker in the organisation.
Mario Martinez-One of the Mariners' less heralded international signings in the past years. I see him passing DeJesus and Norriega by having improved plate discipline and growth in power.
John Mayberry- If given plenty of playing time, can be a sleeper candidate for NL ROY in my opinion. I am believer in his power that still has room for more growth and ability to handle strike zone well.
Jose Tabata- I think this year he will step up offensively in terms of contact and plate discipline, power will not come this year though.
Mitch Maier- My gut tells me he is going to experience growth in power and has he makes better contact through a better approach at the plate. Combined with good defense, will be a valuable LF/CF/RF.
Balbino Fuenmayor- I see him really having a great year in full-season ball by further reducing his K % and increasing his power #s.
Dropoff
Greg Halman- I think he has been overrated quite a bit by hitting well in the Cal league and the having a hot streak for half a season at AA. He really has issues with making contact and pitch recognition that came out in his K/BB ration in the AFL and in the WBC(SSS caveat).
Ivan DeJesus- I think he will regress more offensively while more questions about his defensive ability arise.
Jhoulys Chacin- Wear on his arm from jump in IP from 2007-2008 and advanced placement in AAA will see him struggle in a hitter friendly Colorado Springs.
Jeff Samardzija- Will return to struggles in turning his great stuff into actual results. He has potential to succeed but he is not as advanced as his numbers showed last year.
Chris Carter- Is another guy with contact issues and Cal league inflation that will regress in value in his first encounter with AA. Like Halman he has great potential but has some way to go still.
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Comments
Some Rays players:
Along with the young pitching prospects (Moore and Barnese), I think two guys will have put-up or shut-up type years. Reid Brignac either hits and cements himself as a top SS prospect or doesn’t and is relegated to nice player. Similarly, Hellickson dominated A+ last year but struggled a bit at AA. If he proves that he can pitch well (which I think he will) I’d bet he flies up prospect lists.
Ivan de Jesus
I would say he is due for a drop off considering he broke his leg and is out for the year LOL
lol 1 for 11 already
Never heard about the injury but it could impair his defensive range upon returning. It strikes me as odd that he is out the entire year with a broken leg, I thought that it would take 2/3 months at most to recover, but I do not know the details so there probably is a reason.
by tdot mariner fan on Mar 27, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Bill Rowell
is in for a put up or shut up season. Many have already written him off, Im giving him one more season to prove to me whether he IS what the O’s thought he WAS when he was drafted
Guys on the Fringes
I really like these guys to make an impact and get some hype this season:
Ryan Kalish
Michael Almanzar
Jaff Decker
Matt Moore
Ryan Westmoreland
Kalish
This is the second year in a row he will reportedly be returning to full strength after injury. He was supposed to be healthy last year but he struggled and it was chalked up to lingering injury. Hopefully that doesn’t become a trend.
Alamanzar on the other hand is still relatively young for his level iirc. Of course we’d like to see something from him but even minor progression is a plus.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Mar 27, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 on Westmoreland
The way I talk about this guy, you would think I am his father or soemthign. But in all seriousness, I think this kid can be the next Vlad! If he can stay away from injuries he will be an all-star!!!!!
too bad he's already hurt
:(
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Mar 27, 2009 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Tigers
I can see Wilkin Ramirez dropping off a little in AAA due to his poor plate discipline. Provided he can improve it, he’ll be a great player, but otherwise he’s mediocre. I can also see Dusty Ryan struggling somewhat- he’s probably not as good as he was in the Majors last year.
I can also see Casey Crosby breaking out. He seems to have a lot of his stuff left after TJS and he’s got a ton of potential. I can see him going crazy in Lo-A and landing himself on the back end of top 100 lists by the end of the year.
Breakouts and Busts
Breakouts:
Michael Pineda
Austin Gallagher
David Cooper
Busts:
Kyle Skipworth
Greg Halman
Derek Holland
Pineda
I don’t really see how a guy like Pineda, whose stats are way ahead of his stuff, can be a breakout candidate. 2008 was his breakout. 2009 is his chance to prove he can sustain it.
Gallagher
36? Doubles in A+ ball at age 19? I think that’s the sign of some serious power. 290 BA as well.
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by cwhitman412 on Mar 30, 2009 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions
splits
home: .245/.294/.309
away: .325/.383/.572
Cal League
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
Breakouts
All three guys struggled with injuries in 08:
Desmond Jennings, TB
Jose Martinez, CWS
Matt Sweeney, LAA
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on Mar 27, 2009 3:29 PM EDT reply actions
Breakouts and Busts
Breakouts
Shelby Ford
Josh Vitters
Robbie Grossman
Jordan Danks
Ethan Martin
Busts
Trevor Cahill
Carlos Carrasco
Jordan Schafer
Ben Revere
Adrian Cardenas
Cahill
Interesting you have him here, I’d like to hear why you think so.
Just because
Just because my friend. It probably has nothing to do with the fact that of all minor leaguers 2 of the 5 “busts” happen to be A’s prospects either. Although, I do have to agree on Carrasco. I think he may be a mid-back of the rotation type arm at some point, but I think he’s pretty overrated and won’t be as good as some think. The fact of the matter is only time will tell on all of these guys.
Tabata's wife/grandma problems
may keep him from “busting out” (though she will want to).
cradle robber issues aside
I think he could use baseball as an outlet to help him offset his personal problems but who knows really, I do not want to start playing armchair physcologist here.
by tdot mariner fan on Mar 27, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Dejesus
Well, I think the fact that he broke his leg and is out for the year will help to contribute to his dropoff in value this year….
He is only 22, so the injury shouldn’t hinder his development too much
Without the injury
I would have had him as a breakout candidate. I like what the kid might turn into. Hopefully he bounces back from this awful injury.
Defensive woes
I have read several reports questioning his ability to defend well not only at SS but at 2B now. If he continues to degrade defensively he would have to add quite a bit of power along with maintaining the on base skills he has right now.
by tdot mariner fan on Mar 28, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Chacin will be just fine....
His arm motion is very smooth and repeatable, and he obviously doesn’t rely much on fastball….Look for him to reach the big club sometime this summer.
As for breakouts, look for Rashun Dixon to really jump up Oaklands depth chart.
Chacin
I can see having a bit of a dead arm issues just from general fatigue, it is good for his future that he is not reliant on breaking balls for an out pitch.
Dixon seems like Oakland’s version of Michael Wilson after he was drafted, if he adjusts well after focusing on baseball he could be a very good regular with great power.
by tdot mariner fan on Mar 28, 2009 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions
What leads you to think...
..Chacin will have dead arm issues? He has been good/great this spring (asside from one bad inning) and the club is truly ecstatic about his progress.
pitched 70 more innings than last year
There have been many pitchers that experience a temporary loss of velocity and/or stuff after a big jump in innings pitched from the previous year. This is usually happens to pitchers that depend on breaking balls but other pitchers are not exempt from it. I think he is going to see a drop in velocity, working in high 80s peaking at 90-91, instead of working around 90. This is mostly gut instinct though.
.Not to mention Colorado Springs is the kind of park hitters feast off of a lower velocity fastball, though his impressive changeup will help him survive
by tdot mariner fan on Mar 28, 2009 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Chacin
Chacin sat at 92 last year and touched 94. You have him a couple MPH too slow.
Bingo
Plus he is expected to see continued velocity improvement as he gets used to his frame (he grew several inches last year). He throws two FB that have good movement, I don’t think he will have any troubles unless he does get a dead arm.
Regardless, this kid has a great work ethic by all accounts so I don’t expect conditioning to be an issue either.
Derrick Robinson
i still believe. he has had a great spring.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

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