Butler or Jones?
by The Congo Hammer on Mar 25, 2009 12:24 PM EDT
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PrintI have been planning on making a trade with another team in my keeper league in which I trade Clay Buchholz for either Billy Butler or Adam Jones and Moustakas. My team already has Youk and Davis at the corners and Markakis and Snider in the outfield (5 OF spots). I'm still wondering who I should expect to have the bigger breakout in 2009 and who will have the better production in the next few years, from a FANTASY perspective.
I still think Butler has been written off quickly after the Manny comparisons, though I think Sickels may have been closer with career projection. Jones' defense means nothing to me, but he does have some speed with his power potential (though worse AVG likely) and will be hitting 2nd in the O's lineup. I'm also wondering if I should offer Brandon Wood (qualifies at SS, with him gone I'd have two MI slots open) or Snider instead of Clay, but Wood and Snider's contract are a year newer (I'd get to keep them for two years before having to extend them to Clay's one year) so I'm hesitant on that even if they're less likely to put up great '09 numbers (I assume Buchholz will dominate once given the opportunity). Any help with your thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!
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say it aint so
Why are you trading buchholz right now when he is at his lowest value? unless you have a whole staff full of studs, i don’t know why you would want to trade him. just 2 years ago he was the top pitching prospect in all of baseball. in addition to that, it sounds like you don’t even have room for butler/jones. i like to hoard quality starters and they don’t come much better than clay buchholz.
i know it doesn't sound wise to trade Clay
But having won my league last year, combined with a few other trades (I actually just acquired Snider, Buchholz, and Wood for Rios and a minor league draft pick swap) I now have the 12th and 15th picks in the draft and felt that Moose would be much better than anyone left by then (since most available prospects are 2008 draftees).
I still may simply enter with my current roster and try to acquire Butler or Jones midseason, but then I don’t get the better minor leaguer. I’ll see what other players I can throw at them though.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Mar 25, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Trade Trade Trade
Okay, I’m an unabashed Billy lover, but I would consider trading Butler straight up for Buchholz and I would consider trading Moustakas straight up for Buchholz, so I would make this trade in a New York Minute. And although I think Butler will be a better player than Jones this year and in the future, I’d do the trade with Jones in at least a Boston Minute.
The wind is in the buffalo.
I am pegging Jones for a huge breakout
I have him in my keeper league. He has really focused on stealing bases and I could see him stealing 25-30 to go with 20 homers and a .285 avg. I like him longterm over Butler.
Steals
Jones himself said this offseason he wants to steal 40 bases, so that may not be out of the question.
I love Butler
but he’s going to need to fight to get playing time. The Royals have a real glut of hitters with no defensive position.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Not every day
He will probably get most of the ABs at DH, but between Gload, Shealy, and Kila, he’ll probably lose ~150-200 ABs. He’ll also definitely lose the 15-20 games of interleague play.
Go with the outfielder over the DH if you think their raw value will be comparable. You can slot anyone at all into the UTIL spot.
but
How many of them can actually hit? I don’t think Butler needs to do that well to keep his ABs from the likes of Shealy and Glooooad. Teahen is a bit of a threat though, I don’t think the 2B experiment is panning out, and Butler’s still more likely to lose ABs than Jacobs…
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Mar 25, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, you're probably right
I know Buchholz has a lot of potential, I just have already have Felix, Santana, and Slowey and they told me they want a starter… I guess I don’t need to do it, but should I try trading Wood or Snider instead (longer-term keepers than Clay) or just stand pat?
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Mar 25, 2009 1:09 PM EDT reply actions
thanks for the help
I guess I was worrying too much about Clay spending a significant portion of 2009 in the minors. I realized that if anything, I’m probably best off trading King Felix and getting a bigger package in return, he’s more expensive and his contract expires in 2010. (I don’t mention cost because Buch, Butler, and Jones all had identical contracts). But really I’m best off just keeping Buch, I’m glad I snagged him in a trade with Snider and Wood for Rios just before Clay started dominating in ST.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Mar 25, 2009 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
wait...
He’s a fool if he trades Clay Buchholz for Adam Jones and Mike Moustakas in a keeper league??
Not a fool...
but I wouldnt do it. Buchholz >> Moustakas.
Adam Jones is nice… but eminently replaceable. A little power and speed, but pretty non descript OF option. So front of the rotation strikeout pitcher or powerful 3B? Id stick with Buchholz.
before this spring training
I wonder how the replies and the votes go…
As for AJ, I obviously might be biased but from a fantasy perspective, down the road possible 20+/20+ seasons has pretty good value.
For 20/20
I’d say go with Corey Hart. Adam Jones is sexier because of the prospect status. But if you’re in a league that doesn’t care about OBP — like mine — Corey’s about the cheapest 20/20 guy you can find.
I wouldn’t trade Clay Buchholz for him, though.
http://www.chop-n-change.com
by alexwithclass on Mar 27, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I changed my mind
The trading Buchholz thing wwas just a passing thought but I thought better of it. Whether or not i should make this trade wasn’t the question, however. I’m still wondering during the season whether I should aim at acquiring Butler or Jones without parting with such elite talent.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Mar 26, 2009 8:07 PM EDT reply actions
Definitely
Both Butler and Jones have low stocks currently. Both players have huge breakout potential, and while Butler is going to have playing time issues with the Royals, they’re still going to get a fair number of AB’s. Their stocks will never be this low- especially Butler’s.
by David Tokarz on Mar 28, 2009 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
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