Fantasy Help: Minor League Draft
by alskor on Mar 24, 2009 12:56 AM EDT
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PrintI have my minor league draft (and major league auction) coming up on Sunday. I have my draft board pretty set but Id like to see what other people think.
The League:
-10 Team
-AL ONLY
-5X5 OBP instead of AVG
PLAYERS AVAILABLE:
- Gordon Beckham
- Tim Beckham
- Aaron Hicks
- Derek Holland
- Eric Hosmer
- Brian Matusz
- Tim Melville
- Justin Smoak
- Michael Ynoa
I have the 3rd and 4th picks... Im curious how people would rank these players...
Thanks!
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One other consideration
I have Dustin Pedroia signed for the next 6 years…
Ive been getting the feeling that Im missing a potential star in Gordon Beckham… but I have nowhere to play him! I always say take the best player available, but Im having a hard time convincing myself this makes sense.
You dont have a MI spot?
And also, you cant guarantee he wont play shortstop. Ideally Getz could play 2B, Alexei CF and Gordon SS, I think this makes perfect sense given the less than optimal CF options for CWS
No MI
Just the nine starting positions and a UTIL… its AL only.
That would be awesome if that Alexei to CF scenario happens… Im not optimistic about it, though. I do like Beckham’s ability to play SS.
Why not play him at UTIL?
And what’s the rest of your roster like?
IMO, unless you have glaring holes, always take the BAP regardless of position. If you feel that’s Beckham, grab him.
The other argument for BAP is
That if he comes up and you have two terrific 2Bs, then you can deal one of them to somebody without any. In the meantime, lots of stuff could happen
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by OldProspects on Mar 24, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not the "other" argument
In my mind, it’s the argument. :) High value trade chips are more important than lower value usable parts – at worst, you can flip the high value trade chip for a higher value usable part
(i.e. if I have 2 top 5 2B, and a hole at 1B, I can flip one of the 2B to a team with a surplus at 1B and get a stud back in return)
Beckham will probably play SS in the minors . . .
so depending on what company (if any) is hosting your league, his initial position may be SS, and then he’ll earn his 2B eligibility thereafter. If he doesn’t get called up until 2010 then you may have him available for SS for all of that year, so you’d delay your choice between him and Pedroia till 2011.
If he gets called up to play 2B this year, then nevermind.
i personally believe smoak and beckham will be gone 1 and 2 and you should be happy to draft hosmer and holland/t. beckham although beckham and hosmer will not be factors until 2012
Hosmer will come faster than T. Beckham in all likelihood.
While Tim Beckham’s strengths include more athleticism, Hosmer’s bat is much more advanced than Beckham’s. Overall, I would expect Beckham to become a better overall player than Hosmer, due to positional strength and a well-rounded offensive game that will eventually come out. However, Hosmer could be in the Majors before 2012, depending on how the crowded first base situation in KC plays out and if he’s able to avoid the prolonged slumps that some high school power hitters get in the low minors.
Like I said, he has to avoid the prolonged slump.
Mike Moustakas might have hit his way into High-A had he not started off so slowly in 2008. Cold weather is a huge factor when you consider that Hosmer will be in Burlington. I’d expect him to stay there most of the year, but if he starts with a month like Moustakas’ June and improves from there, he has a chance to see Wilmington in 2009. On that timetable, he could split 2010 between Wilmington and NW Arkansas. If he handles AA pitching well, which is a big if, then he’s fast-tracked to seeing ML action in 2011, not at the beginning of the year, but anywhere from August on I’d say, maybe even earlier. The kid has the bat to move quickly for his age, but he just needs to avoid the types of months where the team decides that he needs multiple months just to correct that problem.
That is a cool rule
What a steal for the guy who had him. Though I guess the Johan Santana owner is pissed
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by OldProspects on Mar 24, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
It happens...
Its not “fair” in the sense that you dont always get an appropriate return.
…but it IS “fair” in the sense that its random and we have no control over it.
Even worse if you're a
RL Twins fan.
Ughffff… I would rather have had the 2 additional first/sup firsts we would have received… than the garbage the Twins got.
Don't...
give up on Gomez. I still have some faith that he could turn out to be very, very good.
Talent Wise
Based on talent, id go with this order. If you were looking for most ready then Smoak, Gordon Beckham,Matusz and Holland would be my top 4.
Justin Smoak
Eric Hosmer
Gordon Beckham
Tim Beckham
Michael Ynoa
Brian Matusz
Aaron Hicks
Derek Holland
Tim Melville
My list
Smoak
TBeckham
GBeckham
Hosmer
(half step down)
Matusz
Holland
Ynoa
(half step down)
Hicks
(full step down)
Melville
The wind is in the buffalo.
* Gordon Beckham – potential chase utly, close to mlb
* Tim Beckham – potential hanely rameriez, 3-4 years from mlb
* Aaron Hicks – 5 tool guys does everything well, 3-4 years from mlb
* Derek Holland – number 2-3 guy good but not great, close to mlb
* Eric Hosmer – good bat 30+ pops and good average, close to mlb
* Brian Matusz – strong 2 nice polish not enough for a real ace, close to mlb
* Tim Melville- don’t know enough about him
* Justin Smoak – look at eric hosmer.
* Michael Ynoa- good command of amazing stuff could work fast through minors quick but lots of risk potential to be an ace.
so SMOAK=HOSMER?!?
just curious, so you think Smoak and Hosmer will reach the majors at the same time?
Tim Beckham...
nobody’s throwing out Hanley comps. He doesn’t have that kind of power potential.
Justin Smoak
Gordon Beckham
Eric Hosmer
Derek Holland
Michael Ynoa
Brian Matusz
Aaron Hicks
Tim Melville
Tim Beckham(bust, next Bush)
Im kind of surprised
I basically threw in Hicks, Melville and Ynoa as red herrings – well, more than that… I wanted to make sure I wasnt making a mistake with them, but I dont have them truly in consideration. In fact, a couple of them are in the second round for me. I was hoping to see them all listed at the bottom by most of the people who responded as validation of this… unfortunately for me, that did not happen(I did expect Ynoa to get some run – but I just cant take a kid that raw and that young… he’s a good bit down my list.)
Basically, the arguments that really interest me are:
1) Smoak vs. Hosmer
2) The first basemen vs. the Beckhams
3) Matusz vs. Holland
Those are all tough questions that I cant decide on…
I like Hicks
I think he’s entirely comparable with Tim Beckham, and not a hell of a lot behind Hosmer. In comparison to T-Beck, he has more power and has actually hit well in the minors (albeit in less than 200 ABs), though plays a less important position.
Of Smoak and Hosmer, I’d definitely go the former because of proximity to the majors. I’m not Gordon Beckham’s biggest fan, so I’d go Smoak solidly before him, but if you really believe in Gordon (Utley-lite, or whatever), then I can see going in that direction.
Melville probably doesn’t belong in this conversation, though I can see going in any direction with Ynoa.
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by OldProspects on Mar 24, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Hicks is getting underrated here
I think Hicks is a five tool talent who could very well force his way into the majors sooner than you’d think. great plate discipline to boot
"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
www.27ClubPeak.blogspot.com
I agree
I would rank them…
1. G. Beckham
2. J. Smoak
3. E. Hosmer
4. B. Matusz
5. A. Hicks
6. M. Ynoa
7. D. Holland
8. T. Beckham
9. T. Melville
Would maybe even swap Hicks and Hosmer, but I like Hosmer too much… Not as big on Holland as most, but see him as a solid prospect. Melville could be up there in due time
Melville's weird for me
I go back and forth on him. On the one hand, he seems to still have the terrific stuff that made people think of him as a potential ace and it seems ridiculous to get so excited about a few mediocre games by a guy when he was 17. On the other hand, people who actually know this shit seem to have gotten so much less excited, that I’m wary
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by OldProspects on Mar 24, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
He's got some mechanics issues that need to be ironed out.
And anytime you have to do that with a high school draftee, it makes me wary.
UPDATE
Ok, getting kind of convoluted now, but my most recent info suggests Smoak and Hosmer will go 1-2. Im pretty disappointed.
So now my options are basically Matusz, Holland, T Beckham, G Beckham.
I think Im taking Matusz with one of my two picks (picks 3&4). I really like him. I think I prefer Holland and G Beckham at this point. Is it crazy to take two high end pitchers? Im not in love with the idea… especially with all these high end positional guys out there…
As I said previously, I have a logjam at 2B. I think i could be convinced G Beckham is the BPA… if true, would I be crazy to offer him around… say for something like Elvis Andrus and a 1st round pick (9th overall?)??
So...
GBeckham for Elvis Andrus and one of Hicks/Melville/Ynoa level players (not the guys there on my board – I dont want to give it away!)
Does that seem crazy? I get a fit at SS – albeit a lesser player – but still a quality middle infielder.
SO:
1)
One of GBeckham/TBeckham/Holland
AND
Matusz
OR
2)
Matusz
AND
One of Hicks/Ynoa/Melville quality player
AND
Elvis Andrus
Does that mean Matusz/Santana/Andrus?
I’d probably do that. Otherwise, keep the picks
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by OldProspects on Mar 24, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Is everyone bypassing TBecks
This was the number one pick in the draft. He will need more time to develop, but he will be a top tier SS in due time. Further, he is actually going to stay at short. BPA, position scarcity, and team needs would be my formula for drafting. My list would be:
Smoak
TBecks
Hosmer
Matusz
Hicks
GBecks
Holland
Ynoa
Melville
I'm prett sure I'd go Huge Upside with 1 pick
And More of a sure bet with the other….
You’re in a great situation to do that….
3rd pick I’d take whats left from Smoak, Matusz, and G. Beckham
4th pick I’d take either Aaron Hicks, Tim Beckham or Eric Hosmer
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 25, 2009 12:03 AM EDT reply actions
My take...
Tier I
G. Beckham
Smoak
Tier II
Hosmer
T. Beckham
Hicks
Tier III
Matusz
Holland
Ynoa
Not even close
Melville
I give G Beckham the slight edge over Smoak due to position. I lean to Smoak over Hosmer due to proximity to contributing and Ballpark at Arlington (or whatever they call it). Not to mention, I see Texas as a team on the rise and the lineup around Smoak over the next few years should provide him with plenty of opportunities to build those counting stats.
In Tier II, they’re all close, but I like Hosmer’s bat the best, and will take my chances with him over the other two high school draftees from the 08 draft. Beckham gets the edge on Hicks because of the position (SS vs OF).
I lean towards Matusz over Holland, but it’s close.
Melville doesn’t belong on the same board as the rest. Are any of these guys available instead?
Martin Perez, Josh Fields, Dayan Viciedo, Tazawa, Arencibia, R Weeks?
They’re all available in my draft, which is why I ask.
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by ProspectTube.com on Mar 25, 2009 8:56 AM EDT reply actions
X
Since OBP is a category, Arencibia is worth a lot less.
by Andy Seiler on Mar 25, 2009 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Instead of Melville...
I’d probably take them in this order:
Viciedo
Weeks
Perez
Tazawa
Fields
Melville – there’s probably a few more I could put ahead of him
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by ProspectTube.com on Mar 25, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
almost same situation for me, thoughts?.
I’ve got almost the exact same list of who is available and who isn’t in my AL only 4×4 league, sitting at the #6 spot in my draft , so rather than start a new thread I thought i would ask here.. Two important additions in my league however, Feliz and Laporta are both available. How would you slot 1-6 and in particular Laporta and Feliz.
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