So who would you take?
by drpat on Mar 22, 2009 11:57 PM EDT
32 comments
4th minor league pick in the 6th year of a deep keeper league. I am lucky enough to have acquired picks 1 and 2 and will be taking Strasburg (obv) and Gordon Beckham, mostly for need in that I will need someone to play soon as I cant keep all the MILB players for free.
So, Im assuming Bumgarner goes #3 but lets pretend that all these players are available, who do you take based on what you think they will do when they arrive.
Also, as a side note, would I be better served taking Bumgarner #2 and taking my chances with G. Beckham? He seems like a cant-miss bat who will play soon. Or do you guys think Feliz is the better prospect...Im curious to hear!!!
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Andrus???
I wouldnt even consider him and someone actually voted for him, that must have been a joke
I would take him...
over Hosmer and Tim Beckham. Andrus is a pretty safe guarantee to be at least a league average SS with plenty of stolen bases. Hosmer would have to be great in order to justify taking him so early and over other players. And what are the odds he does that? You can find replacement level 1B that will do about 75% of what some of the better 1B do. I have a hard time taking a 1B so early. And Beckham is so far away and so raw.
My tops picks (off the poll) would be Cahill, Bumgarner, and Feliz with Andrus and Posey being the first two position players. I would take Gordon Beckham above Andrus and Posey though.
Anyways, I say take a chance with either Cahill or Bumgarner (Cahill has a higher floor, but I think MadBum has a higher ceiling) with the #2 pick and then hope Beckham falls to #4. I think there is a good chance that if you pass on Bumgarner, that whoever picks #3 will take them, leaving you Beckham anyways.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
...
If Andrus is a somewhat above average SS (average hitter, with some steals thrown into slice), then wouldn’t Hosmer simply need to be a somewhat above average 1B to have equal (fantasy) value? For me, the main argument to go Andrus over Hosmer is that Andrus will help you in a year or two, while it might take Hosmer 4 years. Otherwise, though, I’d go Hosmer
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by OldProspects on Mar 23, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah i would think that too but the guy who picks at 3 took beckham at #13 in an introductory MILB draft ahead of MB, feliz, smoak and alvarez, so I think he is primed to do it here. i think ill take beckham and pick up MB, feliz or cahill depending on who falls, at 4.
I'm not a huge Beckham fan
But I think the drop-off from him to the next upper-level middle infielder is larger than the difference between Bumgarner and Hanson/Feliz/Cahill. If you need Beckham, pick him first
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by OldProspects on Mar 23, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Hanson
He is very close – will have a pretty decent OF behind him in a few years with Schafer, Francour and someone not named Garret Anderson. He misses bats, and pitches aggressively. I like Bumgardner, but Hanson has proven much more than anyone on this list.
Also fantasy wise, he will play on a competitive team for most of his career. He should win a ton of games, and his organization has a great track record with pitchers/home grown talent.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
Braves farm system
Not to nit pick, but how many minor league pitchers have the Braves developed into stars in the past 10 years?
what does that matter?
They also didnt pick in the top 20 for about 15 straight years. Think about where most top pitching prospects are picked.
I'm sure a generous portion of talented major league pitchers were not picked in the top 20
Didn’t realize that was an excuse..
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by Kenan and Kel on Mar 23, 2009 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions
actually...
you would probably be surprised at how many all star pitchers (non latino) were either picked in the first round, or signed for well above slot money.
Kazmir, Lincecum, Hamels, Sheets, Billingsley, Cain, Zito, Halladay, Greinke, Garza…just to name some guys off my head without looking it up.
Obviously guys can be developed but its very hard to develop a solid #3 into an all star.
The Point is....
Despite not picking high each year, the Braves have had highly touted pitching prospects over the years. If I remember correctly, wasn’t Bruce Chen ranked in the top 5 one year? I’m a huge Braves fan so I’m not trying to bash my own system, I’m just trying to give an honest assessment from what I’ve seen over the years.
Adam Wainwright..
comes to mind.
The point is it is harder to develop elite level pitching when you dont have elite picks, or a massive budget.
Its not fair to say Hanson wont be good because the braves havent developed any elite level pitchers (like its something easy to do).
yeah i mean who is great at developing elite level pitching anyway?
i could argue the rangers are since volquez and danks were two of the biggest suprises last year and they have a AA staff that could start for the nationals right now, but people would argue against it since none of them have done it in texas yet.
oakland is probably the best (only?) great example of a team that develops great young pitching but their ballpark is a big asset, as hudson/zito/mulder have suffered since moving on.
I don’t know what happened with Zito, but Hudson and Mulder were victims of the injury thingy. Hudson, especially, has not suffered in any other way and continued to pitch lights out in ATL (until he had to have season ending surgery).
...catsports...
by bwellnjonesco on Mar 24, 2009 8:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Wainwright
Yes he could be the exception, although it still remains to be seen if he will take it to the next level. In my opinion, Kevin Millwood was the last player to come through the Braves system and become a bonafide ace, until he left for Philly.
I’m not saying Hanson won’t become good as a result of this, I’m just putting it out there.
I still dont see
the correlation to saying “well this team hasnt produced aces recently, so this guys cant be ace”.
That logic is so flawed is laughable.
Ok well laugh all you want
But the Braves have been known for their pitching over the years, and in addition have had many young pitching prospects become highly rated. Each one in succession has flamed out and never lived up to their potential. That’s the point I’m trying to make. At some point you have to question the development.
no
the VAST majority of top prospects flame out and never reach their potential.
You are looking at this through just the Braves but need to realize it happens to EVERY team.
Ok
Well then you could be correct, I’m not an expert, I’m just a very big fan of the Braves. In fact, I’d like to see some numbers around the league of teams that had pitchers say ranked in the top 20, and what percentage of each team have been able to reach success. I see your point of view though, I’m probably looking too deeply into all of this.
I would too
that seems pretty laborious though…I just think people associate top 20 prospects = aces and all stars.
Developing 2nd and 3rd starters is tough as well..alot of guys in this years top 20s arent true blue all stars.
I nominate Smoak
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WIth 2nd pick
Take Gordan Beckham, 4th take Madison Bumgarner, or Buster Posey if Bumgarner not there. Posey’s position really helps, and even though it doesn’t really matter, he is ballin it up in Spring Training.
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Stras/G.Beckham
Would be how I would go.
I would take Hanson third before Bumgarner. In real life I might like Bumgarner more, but Hanson makes more fantasy sense.
Lots of votes for Hanson
I dont think Id be disappointed with Feliz, Hanson or MadBum at #4, which is why Im taking G. Beckham at 2, since I would be disappointed if I didnt get him,
draft so far
1. Me – Strasburg
2. Me – Gordon Beckham
3. Other – Hanson
4. Me – Bumgarner
5. Other –
6. Other –
7. Other –
8. Other –
9. Other –
10. Other –
11. Me –
12. Other –
13. Other –
14. Me -
1. Me – Strasburg
2. Me – Gordon Beckham
3. Other – Hanson
4. Me – Bumgarner
5. Other – Cahill
6. Other – Posey
7. Other –
8. Other –
9. Other –
10. Other –
11. Me –
12. Other –
13. Other –
14. Me -
targetting mike stanton, logan morrison, hosmer, beckham at 11…i think its doubtful that the last two are there, but id be surprised if feliz and andrus dont come off the board soon which would maybe leave one of the stud teenage bats for me
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