Pelfrey
by wobatus on Mar 20, 2009 3:28 PM EDT
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PrintA long way from prospectdom, but NY Post had a nice article on pelfrey and his progression as a pitcher. I know he didn't get a lot of ks last year, but his control went up as season went along and he is hard to take deep, a la wang. Mention of a couple of called strike curve balls tossed in this article. i think he is primed for a good year.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/03202009/sports/mets/pelfs_arsenal_and_potential_growing_160438.htm
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I'm worried about the jump in innings
But otherwise I have a lot of faith in him.
I am amazed as to how quickly he got good under Warthen. It makes me wonder what effect the Jacket had on his progress.
The Post?
come on.
Listen, Pelf is a great hurler, IMO. I think he’s got the right stuff and command to be a solid #2/3 starter, and I think he’s a great fit for the Mets style of pitching and defense.
But GOD do those Innings worry. Pelf’s an at risk pitcher. He could seriously decline in performance or even be out for good.
Pelfrey
He’s nothing special. He’s got an above-average GB-rate, but everything else about him is mediocre or worse. The walk rate would be nice if he was striking out more people, but for a guy who barely strikes out a man every two innings, it’s poor.
Mike Pelfrey: 4.9K/9 2.9BB/9 49.6GB 4.70xFIP
Kyle Lohse: 5.4K/9 2.2BB/9 45.8GB 4.35xFIP
Give me Kyle Lohse any day. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for Pelfrey, that.
On the plus side...
if Pelfrey can chop a walk per game off of his total, he has a great chance of being a Carlos-Silva-with-the-Twins type of pitcher. Not the kind of guy I’d call a solid #2/3 starter, but worth something anyway.
Talk about analyzing in a vaccuum
It was his first full pro season, and the only reason his xFIP was so much worse than his other R/9 based stats is because he had such a strong HR/FB. I understand you have to expect some regression to the mean, but a tall righty in a big ballpark with a good sinker is going to be difficult to elevate with authority, and its very reasonable to expect that he can keep his HR/FB above average at the least. So lets say his HR/FB jumps from 6% to 9. Maybe his GB also jumps from 50% to 55. He’d still be allowing about the same number of total longballs. Maybe GB stays the same but his K/9 sees a small spike, maybe just from 4.9 to 5.5. He’d be just as good a run preventer in that case as well. Its not like he had a low BABIP, it was .302, just about what you’d expect it to be.
Look, I’m not here saying he’s a future ace or anything, he clearly has to miss more bats if he wants to be anything more than a 3/4 starter, and the innings jump from last year is a concern in the short term, but he has lots of things going for him that Lohse doesn’t. He’s six years younger for one, and at 25 with one full MLB season has room for growth. He’s also five inches taller than Lohse, and at 6’7" gets a natural sink that Lohse can only dream about at 6’2". And even just talking about last year, Pelfrey’s season totals undersell the clear improvements he made from April to September. His WHIP dropped from 1.47 to 1.23 first half to second half. His BB/9 dropped from 3.6 to 2.1. In fact the only second half regression he saw was the HR/9. He gave up just 4 homers in 102 pre-ASB innings and gave up 8 in 92 post-ASB innings, which accounts for the similar ERAs between the first and second halves.
The fact is, there’s nothing overwhelmingly aberrant about Pelfrey’s stats from last year. His BABIP was reasonable, his game was all about keeping the ball in the park and limiting bases on balls. If you assume those two things are legit, he really prevented runs just about how you’d have expected him to in 2008 (at least on a team with decent defense). His ERA wasn’t flukey-low given those rates, and those rates didn’t seem particularly flukey either. If he actually can find a usable second or third pitch, he’d have all the makings of a solid MLB workhorse. If he can’t, he’ll probably carve out a nice little career with averages pretty similar to the ones he put up in 2008.
by Mark Himmelstein on Mar 22, 2009 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions
His ERA was fluky-low...
because his HR/F was fluky-low. Starting pitchers have virtually no control over this, it’s luck. His xFIP tells you what his ERA should be with luck taken out of the equation. It’s not something to be dismissed.
Above that, suggesting a possible bump of Pelfrey’s GB% from the 49 range to the mid-50’s is incredibly wishful thinking. There were 21 starting pitchers with a GB% last year equal to or better than Pelfrey’s. If you’re talking about 55%, there were five guys who did that in the whole of baseball.
And the gains you saw in the second half last year are unsustainable. Yes, his walk rate was down, but he struck out 4.5 guys per 9 post-ASB last year. That’s horrid. Luckily for him, he only gave up 92 hits in those 92 post-ASB innings. Unluckily for him, guys with his strikeout rate give up 10+ hits per 9. Hit prevention isn’t a skill.
Really, the only way Pelfrey is going to improve is with another pitch, because he’s already maxed out his skillset. He’s got a good fastball, but he sure as hell can’t throw it past anybody. A solid changeup could turn him from an average-at-best pitcher (those guys have lucky years sometimes, and you just saw one) to a real #3/#2, but that’s been the story for Pelfrey his entire career. He’s got a lot more potential than a young Carlos Silva, but until he realizes that potential, he’s just another sinkerballer who can’t miss a bat to save his life.
All this isn't to say...
that it’s ridiculous to like Pelfrey. If someone can teach him an out pitch, he could be a very good pitcher. It’s just that, as he is, it’s very hard to be optimistic. His ERA from 2008 may be pretty, and it’s nice that he was a top prospect, but take out the luck and he’s the picture of a league-average starter as he is now.
From what I can tell
when I watch him, Pelfrey seriously took an huge overhaul on his pitching style when Warthen came, and it had a huge effect on…. well everything. He was striking out more batters, his command was outright sick, he used his slider as a powerful outpitch as well. He’s also added an “official” sinker (Pitch f/x said all he threw last year was a fastball, slider and change).
When Warthern came in early July, he immediately reworked pelf’s delivery. A lot of small tweaks, a lot of aiming, and a total change in Pelfs approach.
In July he pitched 40 and walked 3. He struck out 28 as well.
by METSMETSMETS on Mar 22, 2009 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions
had to see it
I agree. He was a much better pitcher as the season progressed. I think he will surprise the folks focusing too hard on the k rate. And it does seem like he is developing some extra pitches.
Pelfrey threw...
81.2% fastballs last year, easily the highest percentage of his career. The only pitchers to throw a higher percentage were Aaron Cook (what Pelfrey would be if he got more ground balls) and Daniel Cabrera (what Pelfrey would with worse control). If he’s developing extra pitches, he’s not throwing them in the game.
2 fastballs
He throws a 2 seamer and a 4 seamer. he started using the 4 seamer more often.
And when I mentioned developing a new pitch, I meant this spring training, not last season.
Wang
These are the same things that everyone says about Wang, but he keeps producing. Groundballers can sometimes defy the stats.
Wang gets significantly more groundballs than Pelfrey
barring some major jump in GB rate (not likely).
You know what these really are? The same things everyone says about every run of the mill pitcher.
“had to see it” – If you had to see it, it probably wasnt worth seeing. What you saw was just as likely some balls hit to defenders, or some hitters make mistakes. He probably got a little lucky and put together a good strech and consequently looked more confident. Bam – false breakthrough.
“had to see it” means “Despite having no evidence for this, Im still willing to interpret what was likely a stretch of luck to some legitimate improvement that I cant quantify.” “There’s no need to bother arguing it with me, because I saw it and you didnt – so Ive created a scenario where nothing you say can have any affect on my argument.”
Amen.
If you like Pelfrey, and like I said before, that isn’t an unreasonable stance, then it has to be because you think he’ll either:
A. Start striking out more guys (Kyle Lohse, c. 2008, Paul Maholm)
B. Get his GB% in the mid-50s, and keep his walk in the low 2’s (early Chien-Ming Wang)
Because if he doesn’t do one of those things, he’s not going to be a good pitcher. An average pitcher, maybe, but his skillset right now just doesn’t support him being better than that.
It’s not that Pelfrey has some kind of innate ability to get guys out, or that “groundballers can sometimes defy the stats.” Groundballers produce stats just like everybody else, and a guy that can get 55% GB with a 2.5:1 K:BB ratio is going to be a good pitcher. Until Pelfrey can do something like that, he’s going to be a disappointment for anyone thinking he can live up to his prospect status.
these arguments were made last year
Just went back and read some of them. I do sometimes think we get blinded simply by what the stats say. I agree that pelfrey’s peripherals need to improve. Mostly, he needs a few more Ks. Total random guess on my part is he will start to get a few more Ks.
But if you go back and look, in June people on the site were skeptical of pelfrey’s “improvement” when his e.r.a. was still in the 4s. John included. I guess his luck continued, and actually improved as the season went on.
I am not being a stats apostate here. I in general think that what you guys say is true. But I do think there is some wiggle room for just watching.
BTW, this leads me to what i think would be an interesting study: how things like k/9, bb/9 and k/bb translated into success in baseball’s past. Were these always reliable guideposts to repeateable success?
I ask because just looking at Early Wynn’s career, hard to see how he got to the hall of fame. 4.6 k/9 and 3.5 bb/99. And there are a lot of guys like that in that era.
drunk irish
“A guy that can get 55% groundballs with a 2.5:1 k:bb ratio is going to be a good pitcher.”
From June 23 on last season, Pelfrey had a 52% gb/fb ratio on balls in play. And he had a 5.06/9 k rate and 2.04/9 bb rate. So he was getting up near your success markers.
Toss out his last 2 starts (ok, cherry picking, but easily the most innings he’d ever pitched), and from june 23 on he had a 5.21/2.01 k/bb per 9 and .543 gb ratio on balls in play.
His successful run actually started before June 23, with a good may 31 start against the Dodgers, i believe.
I chose June 23 because there was a thread last year started on june 23 about whether pelfrey had turned the corner. In that thread, on june 23, you posted as follows:
“has no control or quality secondary pitches (no matter how often he throws them). He’s got a 1.60 WHIP, and walks nearly as many guys as he strikes out. He’s lucked himself into a decent ERA so far, but anybody who thinks he can keep that up without drastic changes in his peripherals is only kidding themselves.”
The drastic changes in his peripherals apparently came about. Mostly it was a stunning drop in walks per 9. His home run per 9 rate actually went up slightly after june 23. from that point on it was .68 hr/9. h/9 were about 8.7. His e.r.a. was 3.33.
What appeared to happen was that his peripherals did indeed improve, even if he still was a little “lucky.”
But that improvement had started before June 23. hence the thred, and hence his good start string, which actually started under Willie and Peterson in late may.
I believe people who watched saw the improvements coming, first without results, then with results that weren’t in the peripherals, but then the peripherals came around, to a degree.
He never did k a ton of guys during his succesful strecth, but walks came down a lot, groundball rate went up, ball stayed in the park. And, if you watched, he just had a better idea what he was doing, got less flustered, threw his 4 seamer for strikes.
His offspeed stuff never got great…although this spring people seem to like what they see.
Maybe this year his peripherals will improve but his luck will reverse.
One last note. His k rate in minors wasn’t that bad. Usually minor leaguers can hit a fastball, and we get the dropoff in k rates from minors to majors from the advanced tricky breaking ball guys. Seems a bit odd to me that Pelfrey can’t eventually get a few more Ks. I know, his offspeed stuff isn’t great. Nevertheless, I assume he will develope enough of something to keep hitters honest and get a few more Ks.
well
He pitched scared early in the year and then started throwing strikes. It is in the stats, actually. His bb rate went down to about 2 per 9 after a shaky first 2 months. And the flyballs he gave up were quite often of the pop fly variety. he is hard to square up. Pujols said as much.
I saw an early season sequence where he was at 3-2 on some scrub on Arizona who kep fouling piches off and finally flared a double to score some runs off him. he looked flustered. he seemed to deal with adversity better as the season went on.
In fact, there was a thread on this web site early to mid last year where I argued he was pitching better than his stats indicated, and he thereafter went on a run.
You can argue that it is all in the stats, but i think you can garner some stuff from actually watching a pitcher.
and actually
“had to see it” means I had evidence, i just can’t repeat it for you. And in June last year folks were posting about these improvements on this site, others argued it wasn’t in the numbers, and damned if pelfrey didn’t just get better from there. And it eventually did show up in peripherals, other than a huge k rate.
btw
sorry to go all “subjective” on y’all. Big Mets fan, and i actually have pelfrey on my fantasy team (but I didn’t freeze him, so no more). And he actually did go on a long stretch of 2.5/1 k/bb ratio and almost 55% grounders. But fact is, if he doesn’t find a way to get lefties out he won’t get beyond mid-level. I like his chances of figuring it out, but i don’t have anything to really back that up.
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