If they were still prospects...where would they rank?
by The Congo Hammer on Mar 20, 2009 11:31 AM EDT
16 comments
I know this way of thinking is often criticized on the site, since major league experience tends to alter judgement on different players, but still many guys on the prospect lists at least got a september call-up. I'm just taking intriguing players that would be interesting to determine where they would go on the community prospect list were they to still qualify: Most of these guys didn't play a full season in 2008. Here are the guys I thought up off the top of my head (in no particular order), I'm sure I missed some, feel free to add your own: I'll give it a shot, though I'm guessing these opinions may be highly variable based on how you evaluate older prospects
1. Chris Davis - #8 - young age, massive power, Ks, similar to Snider in that regard except he is huge and plays CI. I wonder whether he'll put up the numbers many predict of him though, it seems
2. Brandon Wood - #15 - Really, really overlooked. Just look at the power numbers he put up in the minors last year in AAA. I'm still banking on him coming through, his Spring has been promising thus far, just needs an opportunity...
3. Clay Buchholz - #17 - may be 24, but is still a very exciting prospect, even had good periphs during struggles. Only question is when he'll be up for good and in what role...
4. Brandon Morrow - #20 - Doesnt' have Clay's upside, but it is still high and he can succeed either as a starter or a closer
5. Jed Lowrie - #30 - Moderate ceiling, high floor. If he can stay at SS he can put up Pedroia circa 2007 numbers, I don't think the speed is comparable but the power is.
6. Phil Hughes - #34 - Despite injuries, has still shown enough potential to retain prospect stock. Concerns about reduced velocity, but I think he could still be very good.
7. Jeff Clement - #42 - His time should be now, he still hasn't impressed enough to push out Johjima, will need to show something soon before Adam Moore enters the picture...
8. Denard Span - #49 - conservative, yes, but he still doesn't have a lot of power potential, year may have been fluky.
9. Sean Gallagher - #52 - needs to work on his control, good stuff though, I like him more than Gio but I think he'll have high WHIPs for a while.
10. Travis Buck - #58 - Injuries knock him down, but I think the offensive potential is there for some .300 20 HR 10 SB seasons if somehow he avoids injury.
11. Felix Pie - #69 - Still to early to judge, but has the promising speed and hopefully will develop more power and plate discipline
12. Erick Aybar - #74 - Yawn. Can hold down a starting job, do a little of everything, hasn't stolen nearly enough bases yet, it's the only thing that makes him interesting.
Phew, this is not an easy task, but give it a shot of your own, or discuss why you think my rankings are reasonable or utterly nonsensical. I just want to stimulate discussion about the old prospect crop that often gets forgotten once they no longer qualify on the top prospect lists, but they still have plenty of development to do to become productive major leaguers and so are still prospects in a sense.
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I'll only compare them to each other
because putting them in top 100 terms would require me to come up with my own list.
1. Clay Bucholz- great stuff, how quickly we forget that this guy has thrown a no-hitter in the bigs. Just needs time.
2. Phil Hughes- similar boat as Bucholz. Just 22, limited minor league experience, will get some time in AAA to start the season, but should be a 2 shortly.
3. Chris Davis- K rate is obviously the concern here, and doesn’t walk a lot. No way he plays third. I think he settles in as a .270/335/550 guy, obviously a lot of value in that bat.
4. Brandon Morrow- Injuries are a huge concern, but when healthy can be dominant.
5. Erick Aybar- I think many will disagree with this placement, but is a wizard with the glove, good arm, and can run. In the post-steroid era it appears that offensive SS are a thing of the past. I look for Aybar to be one of the better all around SS for years to come.
6. Sean Gallagher- future 3, should have a long career being a valuable starter racking up innings.
7. Jed Lowrie- pretty good all around player. Will hit for average and solid gap power. I think he is a below average SS, but won’t kill you there.
8. Brandon Wood- numbers are inflated by PCL, and average will never be high against major league pitching but is too young and has too much potential to be given up on. I think he is a third baseman who projects to hit about .260 with 25 bombs a year.
9. Felix Pie- great tools, but has struggled at the major league level. It looks doubtful that he’ll ever reach the ceiling that many projected him to, but he is a very good defensive player and I think he could hit .280 with limited on-base ability and some surprising power.
10. Denard Span- eye surgery or not I’m not yet convinced. Certainly had a great year and has a first round pedigree, but I need one more year before I’ll get on the bad-wagon.
11. Travis Buck- could certainly become a valuable player, but I think he is far and away the least valuable player on this list
by Birdfan01 on Mar 20, 2009 12:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i think the difference with our lists
Is that I was looking more from a fantasy perspective, where defense is less consequential. On that note, I valued Wood higher as he qualifies as a shortstop for this coming year in many leagues.
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by The Congo Hammer on Mar 20, 2009 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would argue against
the fact that you’ve ranked Pie 9th and Buck 11th on the basis that he’s the least valuable player on this list. Apart from last year where he was hampered by injuries, and also pretty much made the face of the franchise as a 24 year old with 80 games under his belt, he’s actually contributed on a major league level. With Pie’s terrible K and BB rates, I would say his contributions to a major league team would never be as valuable as Buck.
But I do get the ranking if you’re still looking it from a prospect POV rather than a fantasy POV; Pie does have fantastic tools but I doubt he’ll ever put them together.
by NateHST on Mar 20, 2009 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pie v. Buck
Pie is a much better defensive player than Buck. He has a strong arm, and runs extremely well. While he is no where near as polished as a hitter, Pie has similar power to Buck now, and figures to hit for more power than Buck in the future. To top it off Pie is about 16 months younger. That’s why I ranked him ahead of Buck.
by Birdfan01 on Mar 20, 2009 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a difference between power and potential power.
Pie doesn’t have the same power as Buck does, not right now. He has very high potential (and yes, he does play premium defense). But his power is not there yet. In 130 major league games, Pie has hit 3 HR. In 120 games, Buck has hit 14 HR. It’s not a huge sample size, but it’s clear that without plate discipline, Pie’s power will likely never come around.
by NateHST on Mar 20, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
IRL
Buchholz – Great stuff and 76 IP so-so rookie debut = BUY! BUY! BUY!
Davis – Lots of value and relatively proven
Morrow – Love his stuff
Wood – Underrated. its like people never got over that he’s not a SS
Gallagher – Solid
Hughes – Stuff just isnt the same and he cant stay healthy
Pie – Primed for a breakout. still love his tools and he’s a great defender already.
Buck – Feels like he’s too low here. I used to really like him…
Lowrie – Solid, but unspectacular. Doesnt have much speed or power… better defender than previously though, but nothing special. Of course, average defender who walks a lot = above average SS
Aybar – Not much of a hitter. Doesnt show up as anything more than an average defender in the various defensive metrics. Just below average all around.
Span – I dont buyt this guy at all. Career SLG under .400. Fringy MLB player.
by alskor on Mar 20, 2009 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fantasy (for long term)
Buchholz – potential plus across the board
Davis – Drags down average but elite power source
Wood – only needs a chance
Gallagher – passes Morrow b/c of health and job concerns
Morrow
Hughes
Lowrie – overrated… not much speed or power
Pie – value over replacement less than Lowrie… (ie. OFer are easy to find)
Aybar – just doesnt bring that much
Buck – See Pie, Felix
Span – See Pie, Felix… and knock 33% off
by alskor on Mar 20, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pretty ambitious
ranking for Buck- a 25 year old COF with little power.
by Birdfan01 on Mar 20, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hanley Ramirez
- - superstar shortstop with better skills and production than Matt Wieters
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by OldProspects on Mar 20, 2009 12:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
was the omission of Homer Bailey accidental?
or do you not think he warrants being mentioned with these guys anymore?
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by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 20, 2009 8:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was just doing AL only
I suppose you could throw him in, but I don’t know enough about the NL to make a separate list for them…
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by The Congo Hammer on Mar 21, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Span
What’s with all the tough love? He hit just under .300 with a .387 OBP showing he has a decent eye at the plate. 29 XBH in 93 games and stole 18 bases. All this with very good defense. I’m not in love with him because he has a very unusual approach and may take a step back a little this season, but he is a starting OF on a playoff caliber team.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by garrioch13 on Mar 21, 2009 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
29 XBHs this year in 93 MLB ABs...
…100 XBH in his minor league career in 2095 ABs. Career MiLB SLG of .358. Career MiLB ISO of .071.
.071.
Some will have you believe this was due to LASIK surgery after the 07 season. I remain skeptical.
by alskor on Mar 21, 2009 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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