Angel Villalona

I did take into account the age relative to the league and the difficulty. His OBP will be 0.314 and 0.492 slg.

I did figure for Wallace to be on the DL for an extended period for one season and miss a dozen or so games each year. I expect he will be there more than once and I can’t predict when he will be hurt. I just did it to kind of project what his career stats would be.

You have not given any idea what your methodology is, and people will wonder. Even if you cannot give a detailed glimpse into your black box, you need to at least enumerate the philosophy you adhered to in creating the projections. For example, how did you come up with 29 HR, that’s quite a leap, particularly since he will be hitting in a tough ballpark that makes it hard for hitters to see the ball, leading to elevated strikeout rates there as well, and thus less HR since there are less BIP.

And most people consider R and RBI projections to be too variable, based on where he hits in the lineup and who hits before and behind him, that it is not a very useful stat to be projecting. And that’s for MLB projections, it is worth even less for prospects. Projections of these stats are useful only to fantasy players (not that there’s anything wrong with that) for MLB players they might draft or prospects expected to contribute that season.

For prospects, the main projection people are interested in is how they will do in the majors eventually. It’s nice that you think he’s going to hit relatively well in Advanced A, in terms of overall numbers, but is that good in context of the league, in context with other 18 year olds in Advanced A (which is a bit of a leading question since there are not many, if any) in the past, etc. And what does that mean for his future projection as a major leaguer?

I think those are the things people will be looking for from a blog that focuses on prospects. In terms of what to project, if you can give a full batting line, that would be better than the limited set of data you provided on your blog. Then, us detailed oriented people can see if all the numbers foot into the OBP/SLG you project.

You should also discuss what this means for the projection of the player. The key numbers are usually K-rate, BB-rate and BB/K for hitters. I would also monitor BABIP, HR/FB, and GB/LD/FB splits. For pitchers, it’s also the same type of stats, K-rate, BB-rate and K/BB generally, GB/LD/FB splits too, plus I would monitor BABIP, though most pitchers don’t have much control over this, there are some who can, and you want to be on the lookout for those as well.

Basically, if you can project the stats that Minor League Splits provide, then you would make people happy with the stats you are projecting. Whether they believe in your methodology, though, is another matter.

the list is a mess when I cut and paste. I’ll have to type them all in, so I haven’t been real excited about doing it. But you may have motivated me to post more..

It’s an all-prospect team, all of the team’s top prospects will be there, except for those with major league experience, Ishikawa, Romo, Matos, Hinshaw, and for Rafael Rodriguez, their latest 16 year old wunderkind, oh and Henry Sosa.

And he’s already been sent back to minor league camp.

..It’s fun. Probably way off, who knows. But it’s fun. That’s why I’m doing it. I’m not a pro, I’m not John Sickels or Jim Callis, just a guy who wants to throw out a new view on some guys and dig up a few overlooked players.

1. the 23 y.o. player you have as the 375th best prospect didn’t do that at AA, but A+, and has never hit more than 2HR’s in any season, or an SLG over .400 at any level before that or since. He’s a bad glove 2B that may not be able to play the position at the MLB level. Why exactly is he rated 1700 plus slots higher than #‘s 2088 or 2093, for instance?
2. Okay, this just shows that you don’t understand the way signing bonuses work. Two sport players will always get higher than normal bonuses because they are perceived to have more leverage, more competition for their athletic skills. Sometimes it works out for clubs (see Dexter Fowler) sometimes it doesn’t . Middlebrooks right now seems more of the latter than the former, but it’s still too early to call one way or the other with him. At any rate, there’s no reason to rate him that much higher than #1117.

A little interlude here. You do realize that #1320 and #1462 are the same person, don’t you? Why is the same guy rated 142 slots behind himself?

3. Fine. I’d actually rate this guy higher than you have him, certainly higher than the two guys you’ve brought up as #375 and #412.
4. Look at the guy you have five slots ahead of him. Notwithstanding the fact that #2289 is no longer eligible because he’s an actual and bona fide major league player who’s been on San Diego’s roster too many days, why in the world is he even the same range as a scrub unlikely to pitch past AA? You’re saying you value A level pitchers with a 6.63 ERA as much as you do MLB pitchers. This is not something to be bragging about.