Clay Buchholz Going Forward
by brok515 on Mar 12, 2009 1:22 PM EDT
49 comments
First things first: Clay Buchholz was terrible last year. That being said, I just read an article over at Project Prospect talking about Clay Buchholz, and the guy who wrote it said that to him, if Buchholz was still elligible, he would be the number 2 pitching prospect in baseball (behind Price, of course). I just wanted to see what other people thought about this statement, and where you guys would put him on a prospect list if he were still elligible. What kind of expectations do you have for him this year, and for his career? Early reports from spring training are positive from a mechanics and confidence standpoint. Thanks for any opinions you might have!
0 recs |
49 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
Stud
Ace/#2 starter
Id slot him as the second best pitching prospect behind Price.
I think people should probably go read a scouting report of him again. He’s nasty. Also, he was great in the AFL and has been great in the spring. His location is back and they fixed his mechanics.
Come on man he's not the second best. I have to assume that's bias.
He had a horrible year where he displayed absolutely no confidence, and there’s a chance he won’t regain himself.
Also, would you honestly have him over a guy like Bumgarner?
by schmosterballs92 on Mar 14, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I'd take him over Bumgarner
And Cahill, Tillman, Porcello, etc. He had a lost year at 23- that’s not the end of the world for a prospect. If he has another crappy year this year, then yes, you’re right. But we’re all talking about a 24 year old who pitched pretty well (in an admittedly small sample size) in 2007 and has excellent minor league stats.
If there is any other pitching prospect in the major leagues you could bet on besides David Price, it would be a 24 year old Bucholtz.
by David Tokarz on Mar 14, 2009 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions
100% take him over Bumgarner. Wouldnt even have to think about it.
Neither would the Giants.
Go read the scouting report below. He’s an absolute stud. He’s probably in the top 15 guys 24 and under you would want to build a franchise around.
He had one bad 76 IP rookie season! There isnt much reason to think he wont be the same guy who a year ago when he was the best pitching prospect in the game. These knee jerk reactions to SSS performances by top prospects really irk me. Buchholz’s stock is still super high – except with some mediots and fantasy baseball owners. By all accounts the Sox never even considered sending him to Texas for Salty, either.
Why do you have a guy like Bumgarner over him?
Just out of curiosity could you cite reasons other than age and left handedness?
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Mar 14, 2009 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Theres always the possibility of him never rebounding, and his fastball looked horrible in the majors.
Bumgarner is an absolute stud. A can’t miss prospect IMO. He was only an example though.
The main reason I don’t like Buchholz is because of the aforementioned problems in the majors, and he’ll be turning 25 this season.
by schmosterballs92 on Mar 18, 2009 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Don't be fooled.
I mean when I say I don’t like him, that’s meant as the 2nd best pitching prospect in baseball. Ofcourse I’d love for him to be on my favorite team.
by schmosterballs92 on Mar 18, 2009 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I love what I'm seeing so far
I don’t know if his two seamer is a new addition or just a pitch he’s learning to refine but he’s looking much better, which obviously isn’t hard to do after last year.
HIs off speed stuff is still filthy and his velocity is still a plus. If keeps his head on straight and commands his 4/2 seamer, I think he’s right back in the top tier of young pitchers.
Still high on his potential
However, it is worthy of note that at 24 (turning 25 this summer), he is a few years older than most of the other top pitching prospects, so that might put a limit on how much he would be expected to improve.
http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/
Eh...
He turns 25 in August. This is his age 24 season.
Its a somewhat valid point, but he’s also damn good right now. Its not like he needs to “develop” better secondary stuff or anything like that. His stuff is phenomenal right now. All that happened was he developed a mechanical flaw in his delivery last season and lost command and consequently some confidence. Despite these problems, his K rate was still 8.53/9
Lets take another look at his scouting report from last year:
Buchholz is the total package with outstanding stuff, outstanding command and control, and outstanding mound presence. His four-seam fastball sits at 92-94 mph, can touch 97, and features excellent movement. It also isn’t even his best pitch. His plus-plus curveball is a true 12-6 breaker, and multiple scouts relay stories of batters falling down while trying to hit it. His changeup is also an above-average offering that features a late and heavy drop. He also mixes in a solid slider, and a two-seam fastball with some sink. His mechanics are smooth and sound, and he pitches with a fearless intensity.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6902
He doesnt really need to “improve” in any way that relates to age. This guy is one of the best bets out there to emerge as a true Ace over the next few seasons.
People are just making too much of rookie year struggles for top prospects these days. Its extremely common for a guy to have trouble adjusting his first year in the majors. I can only imagine what people would have said about Willie Mays. Half of the people on this site would have traded him for 10 cents on the dollar after his slow start. Lots of top prospects like Alex Gordon or Delmon Young take a couple years to settle in. It just doesnt mean a whole lot. There was a reason they were top prospects.
John Danks
Danks posted, what, a 5 ERA with average to below average peripherals in 2007? But in 2008, he exploded. While part of that was the development of his new splitter, there was still a big improvement in command/control as evidenced by the drop in BB rate and increase in K rate. 2008 was also Danks’s age 24 season.
Anyone else seeing parallels to Bucholz?
by David Tokarz on Mar 12, 2009 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Danks added a cuttter to begin last season
witch dramatically changed his arsenal and allowed him to actually get left handed batters out.
He went from never throwing a cut fastball to using it 16% of the time last season and his OPS against vs. LH fell by .130
Not really a great comp unless you are implying that the “new” 2 seamer will help him vs. lefties this season.
Not what I was getting at
I accidentally put splitter in the previous comment, but not the main point. While the splitter did help him a lot, it was also partially the development time. A drop in OPS against of .130 is impressive, but it doesn’t account for an ERA in the 2’s. A lot of that was Danks actually improving, and what I was trying to say was that there is at least some evidence that a young pitcher going through a bad year can improve dramatically.
by David Tokarz on Mar 13, 2009 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions
But he's going into his Age 24 season
He was born on April 15th- so he’ll be 24 most of the season.
by David Tokarz on Mar 13, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
SAY IT WITH ME.
and a one, two, three:
“Age matters very little in the development of pitchers.”
again…
“Age matters very little in the development of pitchers.”
and one more time…
“Age matters very little in the development of pitchers.”
Thank you.
ARL is overrated regarding pitchers
Plus, Buchholz started pitching at a relatively late age. That means a LOT less wear and tear, and to me makes him a candidate for a long career and not someone who blows out his arm from early overuse a la Kerry Wood.
Bottom Line
Most players, pitchers and hitters, dont really blossom untill their mid to late twenties. I would say from 27-32 are the best years that players will have during a MLB career. What they do before that is just proof of how good they really are (ex. Evan Longoria). A guy like Buccholz or Phil Hughes are going to have their struggles early on and wont become that dominat pitcher untill 3 or 4 years into their careers, just look at a guy like Zach Greinke.
For hitters it is a little easier to adjust but they still have rough patches during the first couple of years. There are way too many names for me to think of right now, but if someone wanted to go through all the big name prospects that are now in their prime(27-32) and see how rough of a time they had during the first couple of years you will be amazed. Again, pitchers are more likely to have difficulties early on but in my opinion it applies to both Pitchers and Hitters.
There is a difference between Hughes and Buchholz, though
Scouting reports. Hughes’ stuff hasnt been the same for the last 18 months – 2 years. Buchholz still looked nasty even when he struggled… he just lost his command because of a mechanical problem.
Hughes also has had a number of injury problems. Buchholz is a phenomenal athlete who had a minor tired arm/shoulder two years ago.
Buchholz is actually a crazy good athlete:
Buchholz beat Ellsbury in a race [in spring training] during their first professional season… He also ran a 4.32 40-yard dash when he was still a football recruit in high school.
No way
Let me just say that there is no freakin way that the comment about Bucholz running a 4.32 40 yard dash is correct. None! That would make him the single fastest player in the upcoming NFL draft…and by quite a margin.
The Boston Globe...
has Clay claiming 4.2 seconds, for whatever that’s worth.
That's very unlikely.
Lots of guys run 4.3 40’s in high school when their coach is timing them with a stopwatch. 4.2 is world class speed. That 4.2 usually turns into a mid 4.4 when it’s electronically timed at combine events. That’s not to say Clay isn’t an awesome athlete, because clearly he is and 4.4 is absurdly fast.
It’s a package that includes athleticism along with his pitching prowess. Buchholz reports he once ran a 4.2-second 40-yard dash, indicating that while he might lose a footrace to Jacoby Ellsbury, it wouldn’t be by much.
This paragraph made me laugh because if he actually ran a 4.2, he might beat Joey Gathright in a race and really no one else would be able to touch him.
Tools Whore
I agree it's pretty unlikely...
unless Clay was wearing rocket shoes at the time. Still, even if he’s not running a Deion Sanders 40, you’d have to believe he’s pretty damn quick.
Buchholz
I like him as much as the next guy but what does being a phenomenal athlete and avoiding injuries have anything to do with each other? Running a 4.32-40 in high school helps you avoid pitching injuries?
The jury is still out on Buchholz. In 08, he was clearly not the same pitcher as he was in 07. Red Sox tinkered with his mechanics which partially explains his struggles but his K% and BB% regressed.
He has lot of competition right now so his margin of error is very small at least in the short term.
Most (not all, I'll admit) of his struggles were just BABIP
so, eh. I’d take him… he’s in the mix for top pitching prospect, at least.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
not sold, he also has the 2nd start no hitter curse
the best of them was wilson avarez which is not that good
Ummm...
Wilson Alvarez wasn’t a bad pitcher either. And how many other pitchers threw a no-hitter in their second start? What sort of curse is this?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Mar 12, 2009 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Phil Hughes
threw a 6 2/3 inning no-hitter in his 2nd start, before getting injured. I guess that’s kind of a curse.
http://mvn.com/milb-yankees/
Gee
So Clay Buchholz will be a cross between Phil Hughes and Wilson Alvarez? How terrible for him
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Mar 13, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
At least it wasn't his 13th career start...
Then he would have risked turning into Bud Smith!
http://www.chop-n-change.com
by alexwithclass on Mar 13, 2009 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Unlucky
Someone else mention BABIP, which was very unlucky for him last year at .366. But he gave up an unlucky amount of HRs as well as his HR/FB ratio was a bit on the high side. His FIP was 4.82 – not good, but not nearly as bad as his ERA looks. His 2008 looks so bad due in large part to a relatively small sample size of bad performance. It certainly doesn’t seem like anything was physically off as he went and dominated the minor leagues when he was sent down.
However, I agree that he was pretty bad last year. He really struggled with BB which basically struck everyone as a confidence issue because his history of impeccable control without sacrificing K numbers was other-worldly. That combination of low walks, high K totals, and ERA was possibly historically good. Pitching prospects like him are rare, and if his confidence issues can be overcome, his stuff will get him into the upper echelon of SPs. I really don’t think his stock has fallen nearly as much, at least with the Sox, as a lot people think it has.
Maybe his unlucky
BABIP and HR/FB rate comes from being routinely behind in the count and major leauge hitters doing what they do with fastballs, even if they are 95.
so your saying
that the ratios of BABIP and HR/FB aren’t affected by hitting in a hitters count vs. a pitchers count, I would beg to differ on that
I just don't
consider it unlucky when your pitching behind in the count and you have high BABIP and HR/FB ratios. That’s not unlucky, thats poor pitching.
Still unlucky
I do agree that it seemed like he allowed walks and hits in bunches last year, and that it certainly looked like the wheels fell off rather quickly for him. There’s basically zero doubt that the guy had a confidence problem last year. But it’s sort of a chicken-or-the-egg thing, was his confidence off, and as a result he got shelled due to misexecution of pitches? Or was he pitching fine but got unlucky with a high BABIP, low strand rate, and too many fly balls turning into home runs?
Probably a little of both – if you watched him last year (as I did, big Sox fan here), anecdotally, you probably saw a scared kid on the mound. But I also agree with DrunkIrish that “unlucky” BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB% probably aren’t completely a function of “being down in the count” all the time. Actually, is there any evidence for this? Can anyone tell me whether he pitched from behind in the count significantly more than average last year?
Anyway, his FIP era is probably a better indicator of how well he pitched last year, but we of course can’t forget what we saw with our own eyes. He still struck out a lot of batters last year, so I think that is another possible point in the unlucky column. If he can keep those walks down next year, maybe lower that LD% a bit, he’ll be a great SP as soon as this year…
here is a link
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=buchhcl01&year=2008
He had 311 PA that lasted past the first pitch
only 53.6% resulted in a first pitch strike, that is well below average
look at the differences in the BA, OPS and BABIP when he is ahead and behind in the counts.
There are some incouraging signs
He didn’t give up a HR when he was ahead in the count
Look at the K rate when he had 2 strikes on a hitter, especially less than 3 balls, thats finishing hitters off.
That being said, I saw a guy who was afraid to throw his best pitch, a 95 mph fastball, because he had no faith in it. Until that changes, he’s going to continue to have the same problems. Hopefully, he can put it together and show the confidence in his fastball that he has in his curve.
Pitch/fx Insight
One of the great things about pitch/fx data is it allows us to objectify assessments like “great curveball.”
Jon Lester is regarded as having a good or very curve; on average it breaks a total of 16" (diagonally) compared to his 4-seamer. Josh Beckett is regarded as having a great curve, and he gets 18" of break. So what adjective do you put on Buchholz’s curve with its average 24"? (All three guys have the same velocity differential between the two pitches.)
I only have this full database for Sox pitchers and there really isn’t another first-class changeup. Manny Delcarmen has the second biggest speed differential on the staff at 12 mph; Buchholz gets 18. I would guess that’s more routinely excellent rather than off-the-charts like his curve.
Pitch FX offers some insight
But some pitches do have a very late break on them or some pitchers have very deceptive deliveries etc…. It may be useful if you never see a pitcher pitch or are concerned about issues such as a flat 4 seamer. More break does not necessarily mean it’s batter curve, not that your are saying that exactly.
A good example is former Mariner George Sherill, he has a mediocre fastball that is enhanced by incredible deception in his delivery.
by tdot mariner fan on Mar 13, 2009 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I watched a couple of Buchholz's starts
last year and in both, he had no command of his fastball. To compensate for that, he began throwing a lot of curveballs to mixed results. He almost seemed afraid to throw his fastball, knowing it could get rocked. I also remember Bert Blyleven wasn’t impressed with his curve. He said that it wasn’t on the same plane as his fastball, it had a hump in it. He said major league hitters will pick up on that after seeing it and it would loose effectiveness.
Interesting take on the curve
It also goes along with the pitch/fx data that emvan just posted. It seems like it may be a case of his curve breaking so much that he has to start it on a less downward plane than his fastball, and good hitters in majors are probably going to pick something like that up fairly quickly.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
