2010 Top 10 Prospects
by Summa Slugga on Mar 11, 2009 12:46 PM EDT
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PrintI'm not sure if this was done already, but I am curious as to who you guys think will be the top 10 prospects for 2010. This does not include anyone that has not been drafted yet (ex. Stephen Strasburg).
Mine would be as follows:
- Justin Smoak
- Pedro Alvarez
- Madison Bumgarner
- Eric Hosmer
- Rick Porcello
- Neftali Feliz
- Mike Moustakas
- Jason Heyward
- Buster Posey
- Brian Matusz
My one sleeper pick is Michael Main. I think he has the stuff to be a dominant SP at the major league level, and if all comes together this year he can be in the top 10.
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Interesting..
pretty bold on Smoak, although I think he will be in the top 10
I wouldnt be surpriused if Matusz and Feliz and Procello alllose eligibility this year.
Also, cant forget about Strasburg
mine would look like:
1) Feliz (assuming still eligible)
2) Bumgarner
3) Starsburhg
4) Heyward
5) Smoak
6) Moustakas
7) G. Beckham
8) B. Posey
9) Chris Tillman
10) Lars Anderson
I may have to defend Anderson over Hosmer, and leaving Alvarez off, but that is really just personal preference at this point
I think Matusz and Porcello wont be eligibile and probably not Cahill or Anderson either.
gut feeling...
Matusz would probably bump Smoak down on my list.
I just think he will carve up AA to the point that the front office will want to display him with Weiters as “the future”..like I said, gut feeling
I agree that he probably could...
Talent wise, yes…
I dont know why they would want to rush him onto the 40 man and start his service time clock and waste an option in a year where they almost certainly arent making the playoffs…
Matusz signed a major league deal
He’s already on the 40-man.
But given how the Orioles treated Wieters, I think there’s virtually no chance that Matusz sees the majors this year.
3 pitchers at the top seems aggressive considering all the things that can go wrong
But it’s certainly a decent possibility
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by OldProspects on Mar 11, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
i probably dont disagree
because i am big believer in pitcher attrition rate…BUT, you cant rank a hitter ahead of someone because the pitcher might get hurt, ya know?
All 3 of those SP have the ability to be legitimate top 5 SP in MLB in my mind.
Matusz
Based what I’ve seen, he’ll definitely be eligible for 2010. One report from MASN has BAL shutting him down in September, but thats a ways off and a lot can happen between now and then.
I’d say G.Beckham has a much greater chance of NOT being eligible than Matusz.
i might agree with beckham
havent heard anything like that about matusz though. if he is eligible he would probably make it in my top 5
Main jumping into a top 10 overall ranking
would be a massive jump.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
My list
1. Stephen Strasburg
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Pedro Alvarez
4. Jason Hayward
5. Rick Porcello
6. Neftali Feliz
7. Gordon Beckham
8. Mike Moustakas
9. Mike Stanton
10. Jarrod Parker
why..
would Feliz drop or stay the same from where he is on most lists?
Also, Starsburg being #1 overall is hard to believe since he wont sign until the deadline so probably wont have ANY pro experience at all.
If Strasburg keeps this up
you could make an argument for it, though I personally would wait for some pro experience to put him that high.
Main won’t make the top 10. I expect him to be in the top 20 or 30, though.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I see no reason he has to do anything in the pros
The only way Strasburg is the #1 prospect is if he waits until August to sign. Otherwise he’ll be in Washington baffling the NL East. He’s probably the best pitching prospect to ever come out of college. His numbers are absolutely mind numbing. His K/BB over 10/1. K/9-19.9!!!! He’s striking out 20 batters every 9 innings. H/9- 5.75. BB/9- 1.77. He’s faced 78 hitters this year and 45 have been struck out. Oh and his fastball is sitting at 98 and regularly touching 101 accompanied by a plus curve.
Tools Whore
no one cares
about college stats.
I am as excited about him as anyone else. BUT think about what Bumgarner or Feliz would do at the same age (when they reach that age) to college hitters…they will both probably be in the majors by the time they would see their junior year in collgege..think about that.
Starsburg might be the best college pitcher of all time, but he probably isnt the best prospect of all time.
You cant give him the nod of Bum and Feliz based on college stats, and his scouting reports really arent that far off from Feliz and Bumgarners
Explain why pro experience matters?
One scout said he is better than AJ Burnett right now. That sounds absurd, then you consider he’s almost universally considered a better prospect than Mark Prior (who never made any prospect list because he was promoted to the show so fast), does everything better than Prior and Prior went from college baseball almost straight to the show and dominated until Dusty and a variety of other injuries broke him.
Tools Whore
First, that's just a single scout.
In scouting circles, you can generally throw out the highest and lowest opinions on the market, because it’s based on a love/hate bias towards a player. Strasburg is a great prospect, but he’s not the best pitcher that’s ever come on the pro baseball scene. And while Prior was great, he also faced much stiffer college competition. For example, the Stanford lineup in 2001 included Ryan Garko, Sam Fuld, Carlos Quentin, Chris O’Riordan, Jonny Ash, and more guys that were drafted. He was squaring off against Jeremy Guthrie on those Friday nights. That’s worlds apart from Strasburg’s competition now. If you were to put Strasburg in the Pac-10, he might not even equal Prior’s numbers from 2001. Just to keep things in perspective.
Strasburg has a good argument for #1 right now and he hasn't even been drafted yet
Other prospects have been named #1 with little or no pro experience. Barring an injury, or something stupid like David Price or Matt Weiters losing their rookie eligiblity, Straburg should be #1, even if he doesn’t play, even if someone else puts up a gigantic year, and even if Yu Darvish gets posted.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Because he's the best pitching prospect to come along since King Felix
and perhaps the best college pitching prospect ever?
Tools Whore
you
arent allowed to talk anymore after arguing against Feliz’s scouting report and not even know what pitches he throws lol.
by the way, his SLIDER grades out as plus.
I'll talk about whomever I choose and I got my scouting report from Baseball America.
Particularly with breaking pitches, when pitchers are still young and aren’t fully developed, their breaking pitch can be kind of an in between pitch, often referred too as a slurve.
Also, I never said his POWER CURVE (I can use shift too!) wasn’t projected to be a plus pitch or that it didn’t flash plus, I said it wasn’t consistent. Again, from Baseball America:
Sometimes Feliz drops his arm slot, causing his stuff to flatten out. He’s still fine-tuning his breaking ball, which at times becomes a slurve.
Tools Whore
From his league scouting report from Baseball America
His hard breaking ball shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch and is at its best when he stays on top of it and achieves curveball action, but he tends to slow down his arm and drop his elbow, resulting in a flatter slurve
Although admittedly his breaking pitch (apparently scouts consistently don’t know what type of pitches he throws as well as you do) became more consistent in AA.
Tools Whore
Basically you're flipping out and calling me an idiot
over semantics. A power curve in the low-80’s and a slider aren’t that far off from each other. Get over yourself.
Tools Whore
.
1) I would suggest working on putting your thoughts together enough to make one post…rather than thinking about it and 10 minutes later realizing you left something out lol
2) yes I am flipping out, I am sitting at my computer pulling out my hear because someone I dont know and never will meet dosent know what he/she is talking about
3) I suggest not going on one “scouting report” since BA dosent even do their own top 10s.
BA doesn't do their own top 10's?
Yes they do, it’s just not a collaborative effort like the Top-100 is. One writer is assigned a certain number of teams and does the teams individually.
Secondly, I did use two scouting reports, which is why there are two posts. One was from their league scouting reports and their other is the teams Top-10. The League reports are done by different people.
Tools Whore
i am sorry..
but you are wrong…look at the top 10 prospects page and tell me how many of those guys work for BA
For example,
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267482.html
Tracy Ringolsby is the beat writer for the Denver Post
OK
A: Stephen Strasburg is the best.
B: Feliz would be good too if he faced college hitters.
A: Strasburg’s stuff is better.
B: Feliz’ stuff is just as good.
A: Feliz’ curveball is inconsistent.
B: Feliz is younger and throws a plus slider.
C: It’s a slurve.
A: Baseball America says Strasburg commands his breaking pitch better.
B: I disagree with that particular writer.
Much better.
Personally, I don’t like Feliz’ 4.0 K/9(4.6 at AA) or the Rangers’ track record with young pitchers.
On the other hand, there are those that believe Strasburg is Mark Prior waiting to happen(in a bad way).
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
Rangers track record
is not the problem most think. It has been ages since they’ve had enough pitching talent in their system to overcome attrition. They traded away some of the better arms and there was little to nothing left when guys like Jovanny Cedeno got hurt. There is now so much talented pitching in the system that when Hurley goes down they don’t skip a beat.
Whatever development problems they’ve had were FAR outweighted by poor drafts, poor scouting, and injuries. Since about 2006 the drafting, international signings, and trades have stocked the system so that the usual attrition will not decimate the system.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Not really.
Danks never got a shot in TX before he left and was highly regarded. The cutter that he learned from Buehrle has helped him, but he would have been a good pitcher in Texas had he stayes. Volquez was rushed at first, but figured some things out in 2007 and was poised to breakout before leaving TX.
They didn’t magically figure something out, they fulfilled the potential everyone thought they had. TX traded them for good returns, though the McCarthy trade hasn’t worked out so far with his injuries.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
The cutter that he learned from Buehrle has helped him, but he would have been a good pitcher in Texas had he stayes.
The cutter is his best pitch, and I doubt he would have been very good at all w/o it.
that is a convenient answer..
from a person defending the rangers, please understand. most people dont few things going down like that. there is a reason they were traded haha
I've said this before
There is a big difference between a track record of developing pitchers and a track record of recognizing and keeping those pitchers.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Mar 13, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't deny there have been problems
but by FAR the biggest problem has been a lack of enough talent to develop. They didn’t have any room for error. They made errors and suffered from having zero talent to fall back on.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
I think you mean BB/9
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by OldProspects on Mar 18, 2009 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, BA editors edit all of the pieces
As well as recruit the particular people to cover each team
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by OldProspects on Mar 13, 2009 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
thats fine
while i didnt know that, the other 10 or so writers who dont worykfor BA who did the top 10s wern’t co founers lol.
Disagree
Callis has a hand in all their rankings and scouting reports (Manuel and Lingo too probably; that is why they are called "editors"). They aren’t going to be publishing information they don’t support. That they sometimes hand over the grunt work to beat writers (who are almost always still affiliated with BA in some capacity) does not make the end result any less theirs.
you dont know what you are talking about
I am familiar with their operation in Durham, and I will leave it at that.
You're familiar with their operation
And know that the editors don’t edit the newspaper? Um, something doesn’t jive here
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by OldProspects on Mar 13, 2009 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure what you think doing their top 10s is
Does the New York Times not publish its op-ed page because they bring in non-NYT employees to write some of the columns? Are pieces written by free-lance writers not “their’s”? The vast majority of newspapers, Baseball America included, use freelance pieces, which are commissioned or approved, as well as checked by their editors. If the editors strongly disagreed with something said, or found an incorrect fact, they would change it. Do you believe that they missed something in this case? If so, why? What alternative source do you have? You can’t simply say that Feliz has a better breaking ball than Strasburg, and nobody could possibly say otherwise, and when somebody brings a (legitimate) source saying otherwise, simply ignore it. I don’t know if Feliz is better or worse than Strasburg, but what’s your argument?
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by OldProspects on Mar 18, 2009 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions
well...
I have Feliz around 10 in 2008 so, 6 is a jump. As for Strasburg, I feel as though he is a better prospect than Bumgarner, the fact that he does not have any pro experience yet, does not change the fact that when he does, he will be the best prospect on anyone’s list.
My top 10
1. Rangers guy
2. Rangers guy
3. Rangers guy
4. Strasburg
5. Rangers guy
6. Rangers guy
7. Bumgarner
8. Hosmer
9. Rangers guy
10. Rangers guy
HM: a few Rangers guys
Are you crazy?
Rangers guy is too low.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
by t ball on Mar 11, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Can you use real names?
I hate these stupid e-cab and o-her and a-hole’s. Just type the name.
Sick of the tired unimaginative nicknames is all…
+1
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Mar 11, 2009 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Timothy LaMar Beckhem
Sorry, I just don’t want to have to type all that out and Gordon stole his last name.
A healthy Cole Rohrbough
Will be in the Top 10! Mark my words!!!
i dont think
he has that type of ceiling..i can definitley see him making the top 30 if he throws 150 innings.
Berfore this season
He was actually rated higher than Hanson so I think his ceiling is pretty decent!
obviously
the same idiot who thinks fmart is good like tabata, where do you people learn to be so wrong?
by IHateMitchMustain on Mar 15, 2009 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
There's
no reason to be a dick. Tone it down.
I hear you, buddy
I get angry when I speculate on prospects as well!
I’m about to fly off the handle right now just thinking about whether Tabata is going to carry over his success from the second half!
Grrrrr!
Go get ’em, tiger!
top 5 sleepers
These are my top 5 sleepers that have a chance at the top 10
1. Michael Main (as noted before)
2. Matt Dominguez
3. Freddy Freeman
4. Jarrod Parker
5. Carlos Truinfel (if he puts it all together)
I'd be very surprised by the last one
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by OldProspects on Mar 11, 2009 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Hard to see C-Truin as a top 5 guy, but I could definitely see M-Dom doing it.
+1
He’s not that far away already.
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by OldProspects on Mar 11, 2009 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
parker is a huge sleeper as the top dbacks prospect with ace potential, where did you come up with that one
by IHateMitchMustain on Mar 15, 2009 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Well...
“sleeper” wasn’t the right word, but in this context he means a guy not currently considered one of the top handful of prospects in the minors who could jump into those ranks next year.
2 of your top 5 sleepers
sound like porn names
Michael Main
Freddy Freeman…
If I were a scout, I’d almost certainly draft based on porniness of name.
My Top 10 For next year
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Steven Strassburg
3. Jason Heyward
4. Madison Bumgarner
5. Neftali Feliz
6. Mike Stanton
7. Mike Moustakas
8. Rick Porcello
9. Tim Beckham
10. Justin Smoak
you must think
Beckham will have a monster year at low A…what do u think his numbers will look like? to upend some of the more established guys it would have to be pretty stunning
Not really...
There’s a serious dearth of elite up-the-middle prospects, and Beckham has a plus glove at shortstop. something like .300/.370/.450 with his defensive value would easily make him a top-10 prospect.
Nice list
But I’d probably put N-Fel above M-Bum.
Mad Bum
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 13, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
well i know that the world is going to end of 2012
lol must be nice to be so confident about something you have no control over
Ynoa
If the A’s send him to rookie ball he might make a big splash.
RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!
M-Yno
Or he could go the same route J-Teh did for the Braves in his first year. Lots of health bumps on the phenom road.
i could see that
is they let him throw 50 innings in the midwest league and he dominates all the college players I could see that
My prediction.
A year from now everyone on this site will know how to spell Stephen Strasburg’s name right.
I love Main as much as the next guy
but a top 10 prediction is pretty bold considering he didnt make BA top 100. I definately see a Holland type breakout season, but Holland still has doubters and hasnt broken the top 20 even though he’s going to make his ML debut pretty soon. Main is a top 10 guy going into the 2011 season IMO
Yes, but
Even though he didn’t make the top-100 list, people have been expecting him to be an elite pitcher for quite a while. If he has a huge year, they’ll be more likely to buy that things simply clicked. I think Madison Bumgarner might be a better example of that than Holland, who shot up from not being on the list at all to a top-10 slot, partially because his year was simply better than Holland’s, but also partially because he had been an elite prospect rather than a pure unknown
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by OldProspects on Mar 11, 2009 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
If Main’s season this year is anything like Madbum’s or D Holl’s then i really dont care if he’s ranked in the top 10 or top 100.
Well it's not especially likely
But it could happen
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by OldProspects on Mar 16, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Strasburg
Baring Career ending surgery the only 1 way Strasburg is not #1 in 2010 is if he signs immeadiately following draft and throws 50 innings in August / September.
I'm thinking it will be $15 million.
Including the guaranteed money in his Major League contract. Prior got a $10.5 million contract 8 years ago, and with Boras and Strasburg’s rep as being even better than Prior, it could easily go north of $15 million guaranteed. That’s insane, but very possible.
Jarrod Parker
For me, Jarrod Parker will definately move into the top 10——-maybe even top 5.. Great combo of velo and control——-I also think Logan Morrison and Tommy Hanson belong in next year’s Top 10. Strasburg looks like a Top 3 at worst——-incredible arm!!
Sleeper——-Matt Dominguez!!
IMO
J-Park top 20 but not top 10. T-Han loses rookie eligibility. L-Mor around 10 if not top 10. M-Dom top 35. S-Stras president 2012…mark my words
Gimme...
1, Strasburg
2. Smoak
3. Heyward
4. Feliz
5. Alvarez
6. Moustakas
7. Bumgarner
8. Fowler
9. G. Beckham
10. Wallace
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
Guesstimating...
1. Strasburg
2. Porcello
3. Smoak
4. Bumgarner
5. Heyward
6. Feliz
7. Bret Anderson
8. Lars Anderson
9. Posey
10. Moose Tacos
Other possibles: Fowler (I think he may loose rookie eligibility though), Holland, Stanton and Halman if they can improve their K/BB rate, and Montero.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
Jeez
1. Strasburg
2. Feliz
3. Smoak
4. Heyward
5. Bumgarner
6. Alvarez
7. Posey
8. Porcello
9. Fowler
10. Cahill
I think Brett Anderson, Rasmus, Maybin, Laporta, Snider lose their eligibility
I think HM are Stanton, Matsuz, Lars, T. Beckham, Tillman or Jarrod Parker
Mostly hitters
1) Michael Stanton
2) Jason Heyward
3) Mike Moustakas
4) Lars Anderson
5) Logan Morrison
6) Jesus Montero
7) Daryl Jones
8) Madison Bumgarner
9) Gordon Beckham
10) Taylor Green
Historically, pitchers on overall top 10 lists turn into busts 3-4 times more often than hitters. Historically, the hitters on overall top 10 lists become stars and superstars 4-5 times more often than the pitchers.
Should we ignore history…or incorporate it when making our top 10 lists?
Taylor Green?
Really?
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Mar 12, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
although I kinda like the Daryl Jones sleeper pick.
by Summa Slugga on Mar 12, 2009 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Taylor Green's not a bad player
And it wouldn’t shock me if he made some top-50 lists next year, but top-10 seems a little ambitious
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by OldProspects on Mar 12, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Wrist problems will sap his power for the next few months.
And he’s missing a month of games. I don’t see him being in the Top 100 next year.
Yeah, I'm a T-Green fan
But he’s not top 10, in any year, unless there’s some hugely massive unforeseen breakout.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
+1
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Mar 18, 2009 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
The J Hey Kid!
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Mar 13, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd love to see both Tillman and Matusz up there
Which, while unlikely, still has a decent shot of happening
Well, that depends a lot on the Orioles
If they don’t get enough major league time, then I think there’s a very decent chance of them both making the top 10
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by OldProspects on Mar 12, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Wilmer Flores
Breaks the top 10 in 2010!
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
Mea Culpa
Didn’t know about T. Green’s wrist troubles. One demerit, me.
For the 10th slot, then, I’ll go with Austin Gallagher. Huge kid, put up solid numbers as a teenager in the Cal League (.800 OPS is nothing special…but over .950 on the road), with lots and lots of doubles.
Gallagher’s strikezone control needs work, but never underestimate the guys who hold their own vs. much older competition. ;)
note to self
Mekonsrock is the Jim Cramer of prospecting.
Jim Cramer!?!
Would that I had my own television program, and uproarious sound effects!
Philosophy
It’s strange to me the types of criticisms that “Future Top Prospect” lists get. I mean, by definition, there is even more uncertainty and “faith” required to guess what a kind of prospect a prospect will be a year from now than what kind of player he will be down the road.
Prospect evaluation, to me, is all about what kind of player you believe a prospect will turn out to be. Now, present and past performances are a means to that end, but you are still trying to come to your own conclusion about what a player will do and be.
I could easily say I think Pete Kozma will be the top shortstop prospect a year from now. While you could say I’m crazy because I have little evidence to support that, it’s my list and if I think he’s going to hit .330 spread over two levels with solid defense and plate discipline, you just have to wait a year and judge it then.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
That bold was supposed to be just the one word.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
yeah
but this site would be a little lame is people just go around saying absurd things with no one arguing with them, wouldnt you say?
my bad
see below
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
Of course
I just get curious when someone says “Player X is in my top 50, but next year I think he will be top 10 next year.” Well, you’re already projecting him to improve, and you’re trying to predict the future either way. I could understand if you were a scout evaluating, where something needs to be proven to you because you are risking your job and your team’s draft pick or trade piece, but in ranking players, I say be bold. If you say about Matt LaPorta “I think he will hit 25 HR in the majors next year” that is not all that different from saying “I think Eric Hosmer will hit 25 HR in High-A next year.”
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
Being bold....
While I certainly agree about being bold—I had Pedroia #15 overall when BA didn’t have him in their top 100—there are some rankings, however subjective the process, that I feel aren’t reasonably justified, due to on-field performance.
For instance, any current top 10 that omitted Matt Wieters would by definition be flawed. The arguments (he’s too big to stay behind the plate, he’s never been young for his league, he’s only played one year of pro ball) are insufficient to drop him that far. I’d guess that anyone here would agree.
Similarly, in my view Michael Stanton must be in every top 25, Daryl Jones in every top 50, and Taylor Green & Austin Gallagher in every top 100. Their performances demand it, regardless of any scouting reports to the contrary.
I agree on most of those
Especially Jones. I just think that, if your top prospect list looks like this right now:
1. Wieters
2. Price
3. Snider
4. Feliz
5. Rasmus
6. Heyward
7. Porcello
8. Bumgarner
9. Moustakas
10. Hanson
And Wieters, Price, Snider, Rasmus, and Hanson all graduate, your predicted top 5 next year should look like:
1. Feliz
2. Heyward
3. Porcello
4. Bumgarner
5. Moustakas
6. guy
7. guy
8. guy
9. guy
10. guy
If you think, say, Ynoa is going to pitch well enough to justify a top 5 spot next year, he should already be there.
In what St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa called a "big day" for his club, starter Chris Carpenter took the mound for his first session of live batting practice and promptly buzzed the fuzz on catcher Jason LaRue’s chin with an errant fastball.
"Sorry," Carpenter called from the mound.
"Don’t say you’re sorry," LaRue barked back.
"He said it," pitching coach Dave Duncan said from the side of the cage, "but he didn’t mean it."
~ DG
Mine.
1. Feliz
2. Bumgarner
3. Smoak
4. Heyward
5. L Morrison
6. T Beckham
7. Matusz
8. D Jennings
9. Stanton
10. Parker
Porcello would be #1 but I have a feeling Detroit will be calling him up in June/July.
I straight up doubt the desire of Alvarez.
Beckham is going to come alive.
Jennings will be healthy finally.
Hosmer is my #11.
Stanton once again hits for huge power but still strikes out a ton, otherwise he’d be top 5.
Smoak, Hayward, and Morrison don’t stop hitting all year.
Feliz will show just how tremendous he can be.
Tommy Hanson gets promoted around the same time as Porcello.
also, Brignac has a huge bounce-back year
but will be up in TB real soon. maybe after a couple months of real good numbers in AAA
Here is mine....
1. Madison Bumgarner
2. Stephen Strasburg
3. Neftali Feliz
4. Justin Smoak
5. Jason Heyward
6. Pedro Alvarez
7. Jarrod Parker
8. Eric Hosmer
9. Chris Tillman
10. Buster Posey
and
11. Tim Alderson
I know I’m super high on Alderson and Bumgarner. I saw them pitching and completely bought into their stuff.
join the cause: www.weplaygreen.org
Bumgarner at 1 seems pretty reasonable to me
I doubt if he’ll get it, but I think barring any injury or collapse, he’ll definitely be in that conversation
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Mar 18, 2009 7:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Just saying...
Not a lot of love for Jake Arrieta. Sure, Tillman has better stuff, but Arrieta has shown he can dominate.
He's 2 years older than Tillman
and had an FIP half a point higher at a level below. I’m not saying Arrieta isn’t a good prospect, but it’s not exactly astonishing that he’s rated below Tillman
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Mar 15, 2009 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Where is...
Matt Wieters?
Larry just needs to get laid
get him a blowup doll for god sakes
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 9, 2009 7:14 AM CDT
I know that,
but I think he should be in the top 10 prospects
Larry just needs to get laid
get him a blowup doll for god sakes
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 9, 2009 7:14 AM CDT
I mean
that he is likely to lose his prospect status with too many ML at bats.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Candidates
Ranking now is silly. There are about 15-20 candidates, and we all know who they are. As for guys not currently sitting in the bottom half of the BA top-20, the ones I like who I think have the most helium potential are Carlos Santana, Aaron Hicks, Josh Vitters, Desmond Jennings, Kyle Skipworth, Phillippe Aumont, and Matt Moore.
Am I predicting any of them to be in the top-10? Absolutely not. These guys are my favorite bets in the minors right now to jump from good prospects to elite, though.
As far as players vying for #1, I’ll go:
Strasburg
Alvarez
(big gap)
Stanton//G.Beckham/M. Moustakas/Bumgarner/Heyward
(smaller gap)
Feliz/T. Beckham/Posey
It is honestly incredible
…how many times jsmall has looked like a complete fool in this topic.
That being said, I have a gut feeling that Casey Kelly will go completely apeshit (in a good way) and give the Sox a real dilemma (between making him a SP or a SS). That’s just a hunch, though, and probably makes me sound like a homer.
My favorite sleeper right now for 2009 has to be Cleveland’s Hector Rondon. He could skyrocket onto peoples’ lists with another good year.
If they don’t graduate, Jhoulys Chacin and Brett Cecil are good bets to sneak into the top 10. Also, Mike Stanton seems to have a top 5 spot waiting for him if he can repeat last year.
that really hurts my feelings
I mean it really does..I feel this overwhelming desire to prove myself and impress a bunch of strangers on a blog that really dosen’t matter a hill of beans in the grand scheme of things
I'll play
1. Strasburg
2. Alvarez
3. Smoak
4. Heyward
5. Main
6. Hosmer
7. Chacin
8. Santana
9. Hicks
10. Parker
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