Jay Bruce Community Projection
by John Sickels on Mar 10, 2009 7:49 PM EDT
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Community Projection for Jay Bruce:
We had 27 entries including my own. The community projection came out to:
146 games, 548 at-bats, 153 hits, .280/.339/.496 (OBP based on walks only), 29 doubles, 3 triples, 28 homers, 88 RBI, 49 walks, 131 strikeouts, 9/5 SB/CS, 80 runs.
That would be one hell of a sophomore year.
Ron Shandler has him at .275/.327/.511 with 32 homers in 571 at-bats.
Bill James (usually very optimistic) has him at .296/.351/.540 with 35 homers in 587 at-bats.
PECOTA's weighted mean is .283/.340/.512 with 28 homers in 610 plate appearances.
I might get flayed for this but I think all these are optimistic. My numbers were .261/.307/.419, with the league catching up with some of his weaknesses. Then he adjusts and breaks out huge in 2010.
What do you guys think? Am I right that people are expecting too much out of Bruce for 2009?
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I think you are dead right
I think the power will continue to be impressive if nothing else – such a strong kid and in a great park for dingers. I think he’ll hit 25-30 HRs even if he ends up hitting .240 while doing it, and I also believe that this is a far, far more likely scenario than some of the .290/30+ HR outcomes being posted by some.
I also think the BB/K numbers that were seen in the projection postings tended towards the extremely optimistic. He’s a talented kid but I don’t see the walk numbers treading upwards without a rather high K total – and considering Bruce struck out more than once a game in MLB last year, I can’t see anything less than 130 Ks and perhaps much higher than that.
+1
I think my numbers were the best! I don’t see him hitting in the 280-290 range like most said.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
I think you are wrong
The main issue holding Bruce back was how he hit lefties.
Last season he hit .190/.263/.299 against them in the majors and had a .258 BABIP.
His minor league career doesn’t suggest anything as bad as that is what we should expect him to hit against lefties.
If we just correct Jays BABIP vs lefties last season and assume all hits gained were singles he would have hit .219/.289/.328 against them last year which would have boosted his overall line to .264/.323/.462.
I think he will make some adjustments this year against lefties and at least hold his own against them. He didn’t struggle against major league off speed pitches last season, and he certainly has the bat speed to catch up with most anyones fastball.
I think he will be an .825-.850 OPS guy next year.
Ahem
I think highly dubious to do that Doug. Just because Bruce hit lefties hard in Dayton and Sarasota, it doesn’t mean he’ll do the same thing against VASTLY superior pitchers in the majors. The only thing I can guarantee is that he’ll strike out 150 times if he plays 150 games. Probably only get 30 walks too. He’s the most overrated young player in the game by far.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Mar 16, 2009 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Average
I think most are projecting an average of all possible outcomes. If a player is going to become a star, he’s going to breakout at some point. You just never know when that breakout is going to be. There is some chance that Bruce exceeds all of these projections as early as 2009. There is some chance that he never does. You add up those outcomes, and all in between, and that’s your projection.
I think that a projection for Bruce should be fairly optimistic at this point. While I can see a .261/.307/.419 line, I can also see a .290/.350/.580 and everything in between.
An incredibly tough player to project
Bruce’s strikeout problem could be exploited or he could succeed (I think the community projection is pretty reasonable) based off of his sheer talent, so I just really don’t know what to expect.
Jay Bruce
.278AVE/.342OBP/.497SLG
27 Homers
56 Doubles
79 Runs Scored
88 RBI
13 Steals
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Mar 10, 2009 8:56 PM EDT reply actions
Even assuming he had no triples
48% of his hits would have to go for extra bases for that line (620 ABs). Pujols was 43% last year and Howard was 51%… I just don’t see Bruce having that much power, especially as a sophomore.
Missing Piece
I believe his stats will be down based on the squad on the field. Taveras and his OPS will afford fewer RBI opportunities, and the loss of Dunn offers less protection in the lineup. I could see both Votto and Bruce being pitched around, or at least very carefully if the bases are clear in front of them.
I think they caught up to his weaknesses last year
teams probably scouted him a decent amount very early on since he was a big time prospect that we all knew would be up quickly. I think he makes the adjustments this year and puts up an .820ish OPS
churchofbaseball.com
As a Reds fan...
I feel I’d be overly optimistic so I’m not going to attempt it. But how about a request John?
How bout Prospect Retros on Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker? I’d be curious how they stacked up and found success.
Larry Walker (soon to be in Canada’s HOF) has often been compared to Bruce and Jim Edmonds has often been compared to the other OF prospect for the Reds, Drew Stubbs.
I gotta think he will rake in that popsicle stand in Cincy
At least in the homer department.
vivaelbeñsheets
re: viva made a good point
almighty Bruce is a difficult player to project, since he plays at Homer Happy Cincy stadium.
I wanted to write down something like .280 30 HR, 85 RBI myself. [heck, he might even hit 40 HRs, but he does not have Dunn protecting him anymore….so who knows]
the rest of Bruce’s numbers depends on Willy Taveras and Brandon Phillips.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
I think the magic number is 21
It’s certainly possible that a 21 year old could adjust to the majors and being an adult and fame and money and put up .296/.351/.540 (Bill James) type numbers, but i’d say the odds are against him at this age.
by chrislikeskane on Mar 11, 2009 12:22 PM EDT reply actions
-1
Bruce was already 21 last year.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Mar 16, 2009 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Home field
Playing half his games in Cincinatti, it’s hard to see him doing that poorly.
Good numbers
I think you make a good point here, John. My personal feeling is that Jay will hit a ton of homers but may fall a bit short of expections with regard to his batting average unless he cuts down on his strikeouts.
Bruce in 2009
The projection is decent and realistic except for one thing; people who don’t think Bruce won’t hit 30+ homers in 2009 don’t know enough about Jay Bruce yet.
Jay WILL hit over 30 home runs in 2009, barring a serious physical injury.
Not the one I said
Bring something to the table that isn’t totally weak for once, eh Fanon? Thanks.
by TheNaturalMevs on Mar 14, 2009 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Huh.
That’s a pretty big step back you’re projecting – 40 points of OPS. I’m sorry, but I don’t see it. As dougdirt pointed out, either he has no ability to hit lefties, or he was extremely unlucky last year. I have to believe it’s more the latter than the former.
Like many Reds fans, I see a guy with more power than Votto (OPS of .874 last year), but less OBP ability (at least right now); given his age and the fact that GAB is very homer happy for lefties, that community consensus is probably pretty close.
Often wrong, never uncertain.
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