Kershaw or Price?
by cubsfan1 on Mar 10, 2009 1:43 PM EDT
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PrintI am in a dynasty league and I am the Rays and have Price on my team. I am a huge Kershaw fan and was thinking about getting him for Price. We all know the reports on both and seen them both pitch now. I was wondering who does everyone think is better and please give some reason. Thanks for your guys help. I understand a lot more people like Price but I just don't see it as being as clear cut as most people I have asked are saying. I respect most people's opions on this site so if you could just give me some reasons why you like 1 better than the other besides a Sickles or BA scouting report I can read myself.
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Kershaw
I like Kershaw more than Price, and especially in Fantasy. First, he’s 2.5 years younger than Price and has more MLB experience already. Second, Kershaw pitches in the weaker NL west while Price pitches in the much stronger AL east. Third, Kershaw pitches in a better park than Price. And 4th, Kershaw has a solidified role for the Dodgers, while Price’s role is up in the air. Is he going to be in their rotation this year? Is he going to be the closer? Just when will Price get a chance to be a full time starter, Kershaw has that already locked up. You could be playing the waiting game on Price for over the next year until he gets steady starts.
He won't be used in relief.
He’s a starter, and they aren’t dumb enough to do anything else with him.
Is he going to be in their rotation this year? Is he going to be the closer?
I see no scenario where he is the closer. Will he make a relief appearance again in his career? Probably. He will not be a relief pitcher, though, unless something goes very wrong.
What I see happening
is that he gets called up to the pen, pitches out of there for 4-6 weeks and takes over a spot in the rotation in late June or July when someone struggles or gets banged up. Chad Billingsley, Francisco Liriano, Adam Wainwright et al have all been handled this way when a rotation is full but the talent is needed on the big league club. They are going to limit his innings anyway, so there is no way he’s pitching over 165 this year at all levels. So if they want David Price pitching come September, they had better slow him down earlier in the year or he’ll be riding the pine in tennis shoes down the stretch.
I envision him starting in AAA.
I guess we’ll see, but I am skeptical of the “start in the bullpen, then stretch them out in season routine.”
Yeah
I cant see that in a tight playoff race.
He either comes up a starter or he comes up a reliever. If he comes up a reliever and they want to make him a starter he’d have to go back down to get stretched out over 2 or more weeks. Since I cant see them going without a talented pitcher for that long I say he comes up a starter and stays one.
I just don't trust
the bull pen in Tampa. I could see that whole thing being a mess. Percival is ancient, Izzy, come on, stick a fork in him, Balfour, he’s gonna have to do it again for me to believe it. I like Wheeler and Happ, you can’t burn these two guys out making up for the others. The Rays don’t have have much room for error and I think the bullpen is going to be an area of need sooner than later. Maybe someone from their system goes for a proven reliever at the break, but Price could be a difference maker in the 7th and 8th before that if they need it. I just don’t think Price will be needed in the rotation near as much as they are going to need him in the pen this year unless injuries hit the starters. Maybe he starts and someone else gets shipped to the pen but he’s lightning in a bottle wherever they use him.
I like Neimann out of that pen...alot
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Mar 11, 2009 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Happ?
Howell, I assume. Did you forget about the Joe Nelson signing? Niemann will eventually make the move to the pen and should be very effective. Talbot will start the year in AAA, but will be there if needed. The BP is very, very deep. Percival is like the 5th best arm in the BP (if that). There’s little doubt in my mind that Price will never be put in the BP to bolster it. If anything he may be put their to limit his innings, but not to make the bullpen stroinger.
This Rays fan agrees
In fantasy, I’d take Kershaw over Price for most of the reasons mentioned.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Too close to call
They’re both going to be aces, can’t go wrong either way. I think Price is safer while Kershaw has more upside.
Hard to knock a
20 year old pitching at the major league level for having a high BB rate. His stuff is phenomenal and it’s not like he’s Daniel Cabrera out there. Once he starts harnessing his control a bit more, he’s going to be one of the best around. Pedro Martinez’s K:BB rate was pretty much the same when he was 21 and that looks like it turned out OK. It’s very rare to see someone that young not issue a generous amount of walks. There really isn’t reason to think that Kershaw won’t be able to improve his walk rate moderately, if not significantly.
Kershaw
Already shown he can be a good major league starter as a 20 year old. His strikeout rate is fantastic and his curveball is a plus plus pitch.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Mar 10, 2009 3:26 PM EDT reply actions
I'll say Kershaw
I like that he’s younger, has more experience as an ML starter and is in a weaker division and better pitchers park (all as mentioned above)…
I’d think from a fantasy perspective with all the hype surrounding Price you might be able to trade him for Kershaw and something else if you get an owner in love with Price…
Youth
Is Kershaw being younger really an advantage in this case? Price’s arm can take a bit more in the way of innings given his age and experience, while the injury risk is undoubtedly higher with a 20 year old in a contending rotation. They’re probably a tossup, but I’d take Price.
Southern League Statistics from last year
Player A 57 IP 47H 13R 12 ER 7HR 16BB 55K 1.89 ERA 1.02WHIP
Player B 61.1IP 39H 19R 13 ER 0HR 19BB 59K 1.91ERA 0.95WHIP
Player A is 22 years old
Player B is 20 years old
I know
but they both dominated the league. Only Kershaw did it 2.5 years younger. If you were to have Kershaw on this prospect list could you say that he wouldn’t be #1.
Not saying he wouldn't or that Price is better.
Just using 50 IP in AA is kind of a stretch (especially when both were dominant). I actually prefer Kershaw for the reasons listed above (apart from age and role), but one has to remember that this was Price’s first taste of pro ball. I think that mitigates the age issue somewhat (apart from injury concerns).
Slight edge to Price
More polish and I think his fastball/slider combo is more vicious than Kershaw’s fastball/curve.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
Age
Should really not play too much of a role here, because this isn’t from 2012 on…this is for now. If anything age should help Price in this debate, seeing as he’s more mature/polished.
I’d take Price because I see Kershaw struggling some w/control still. He hasn’t shown that he’s overcome this issue. He gave 9.1 H/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a WHIP of 1.50. I’m not saying Kershaw isn’t great, also that I wouldn’t love to have him and that those are encouraging #‘s for 20 year old for his 1st taste in the MLB, but for the purpose of this debate, I’ll take Price. And I do think that Price’s arm is ready for a full MLB season (165+ IP outta the 5th spot).
For the reasons mentioned above, I think Price will reach his ceiling sooner than Kershaw.
I also think Price Price will start the season as the 5th starter because that is the role he’s playing for this spring (according to numerous reports). If the Rays do not need a 5th starter to begin the season like some other teams don’t(because of too many off days), then he might pitch out the pen till the Rays need the 5th.
League
Kershaw does play in the easier league and division, but I still think Price is on the better team and Price have better looking numbers. If Kershaw put up those #‘s in the weaker league and division, then doesn’t that also help Price in this case?
not when its relating to fantasy....
Kershaw will get the Padres and Giants lineups 4-5 times each while Price could get the Yanks/Sox 4-5 times each
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Mar 11, 2009 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Even so
what I meant to put in my last post was…that Price is on the better team OFF/DEF (by a wide margin) and still plays the rest of the league, not just Yanks and Sox. That’s a whole lot more games.
Kershaw like I admitted, does play in the weaker league/division, but worse team as well. I think Kershaw will still struggle somewhat with his control and put #‘s similar to what he did last season in the majors. So that’s the biggest reason for me to take Price. Kershaw could possibly have more wins, but I also think that goes with worse peripherals.
So I’d rather have the guy with less wins (1 category) and the better WHIP, ERA, K/BB ratio (multiple categories). I think K’s will be equal.
Why do people talk about age...
with pitchers like it matters? Hitters typically develop on a curve as they age. Pitchers do not. A pitcher that’s slightly older is:
A. Less likely to have his innings limited
B. Less likely to get hurt
C. More likely to be consistent
D. More likely to have a team stick with him when he struggles
We’re not talking about Jay Bruce vs. Nelson Cruz here. Unless you think Kershaw’s already a significantly better pitcher, you take Price.
Not sure the difference is "significant"
But I do think Kershaw is the better pitcher. People seem to forget that Price struggled with his control at times in the minors last year too.
Fact of the matter is even if you think the two are equal right now, Kershaw’s upside is higher. Forget the age argument – his fastball/curve combo is just lethal as long as the curve is going over the plate for strikes. Even a slight refinement in his control bumps him up to the top 25 SPs.
Honestly, I think the biggest worry about Kershaw is health – he has a bit of mileage on that arm already, and Torre likely won’t baby him in 2009.
I love how people use age in this
They’re both super young. Do you actually think you will be playing this league 12 years from now when age matters????
I take Kershaw
I do like how Price got playoff experience and I think there is a good chance he can be good this year. But it is just VERY rare that a pitcher dominates in his first full year in the majors (unless your name is edison). Kershaw got experience in the majors last year and I think he can learn off of that and be a better pitcher this year than David Price can.
by kershaw_equals_stud on Mar 12, 2009 12:08 PM EDT reply actions
Do what your heart says
both are great youngsters. Just have no regrets,
re: Price by just a bit of a tag
Ok, bad pun there.
But anyway, don’t forget David Price pitched in “pressure situations” in 2008 at a fairly young age too…and he was, I’d say dominant.
I’d also take Price because he pitches in the STRONGEST division in baseball and showed how he can dominate.
As long as injuries don’t take both players will be pretty danged good.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
"I’d also take Price because he pitches in the STRONGEST division in baseball and showed how he can dominate."
Yeah, those 14 fucking innings he pitched out of the bullpen last year (5.1 against the Yankees, the rest vs. the Twins, Baltimore and Detroit) surely show that he DOMINATED the STRONGEST division in baseball.
Price was a two-pitch pitcher out of the bullpen for an extremely small period of time last year, I think that people are jumping overboard by assuming his MLB stats last year are telling us what he’s truly capable of.
As long as theyre giving him that pitch two feet off the plate like they did in the ALCS
he can continue to dominate.
Do you think he'll sweeten the tea
I like Kershaw just a little bit over Price, but I believe that is just picking one. They are both the nuts. What I would do because of the hype around Price, ask for something, any little thing to go with Kershaw first. Or 2 for 2 w/ a minor upgrade on the second player tilted slightly towards yourself. If he says no come back w/ the strait up.
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
Look at the differnce in divisions and ballparks
If the talent of the two youngsters is as close as we all believe, the divisions and the ballparks should make it a slam dunk over the longhaul. Facing the Yankees,Sox, Rays and even the O’s{check thier bats} not really appealling
"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers."
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