BP TEX Top 11
by rdf8585 on Mar 10, 2009 12:03 PM EDT
71 comments
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8602
Five-Star Prospects
1. Neftali Feliz, RHP
2. Justin Smoak, 1B
3. Derek Holland, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
4. Michael Main, RHP
5. Engel Beltre, CF
6. Elvis Andrus, SS
Three-Star Prospects
7. Martin Perez, LHP
8. Max Ramirez, C
9. Taylor Teagarden, C
10. Neil Ramirez, RHP
11. Wilfredo Boscan, RHP
Just Missed: Julio Borbon, OF; Blake Beaven, RHP; Jose Vallejo, 2B
Ranking Challenges: The top of the list was fairly straightforward, but ordering the last five spots proved to be a significant challenge; the deeper I went with the analysis, the more flipping, adding, and removing I did. This is a tremendously deep system filled with legitimate prospects, many of whom are not even included here, though they would easily rank in the middle of other team's lists.
The Sleeper: Hampered by injuries last year, Venezuelan teenager Wilmer Font is a massive power righty with plus-plus velocity and the ability to throw consistent strikes. Some in the Rangers front office believe that he's already a Top 10 prospect in the system.
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Max Ramirez
How can this guy not be rated higher with that bat…
"And we'll see you tomoorrow night!" Jack Buck
RE:
“Most of the questions raised about Ramirez concern his defense. He’s slow behind the plate, has trouble blocking pitches, and his arm is below average. Some scouts see him as a pure mistake hitter who can struggle against big-league stuff.”
He was rated too high in our prospect list, but
this seems too far the other way. Even if he’s never more than a DH, if he hits to the tune of an .850 OPS (which seems realistic) I’d have him as a 4-star prospect.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Agreed
I’m not the biggest Ramirez fan. He didn’t show much in AAA or MLB with his bat, and when you combine that with his unsightly defensive play, I just don’t see a potential plus player at any position. Call me skeptical but I am not a believer in his bat.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Mar 11, 2009 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I believe in his bat
dont get me wrong – I just dont believe its a great bat for a 1B. For a catcher? Awesome. If he has to move, he loses a ton of value.
He could also be great DH,
but he still loses some value that way. And he’s to small to play 1B.
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
by Kinslerhomer on Mar 11, 2009 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
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by OldProspects on Mar 11, 2009 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
KG seems to be very hot and cold about players sometimes
He always seems extra negative about Andrus and Teagarden.
21 yr old SS with a 7.8% walk rate aren’t cool with him if they don’t hit homeruns.
Gold Glove catchers with 20 HR power and a 700+ OPS also aren’t cool with him apparently….
Andrus: He walks decently but not exceptionally. Still, you’re going to complain about four stars?
Teagarden: Ummmm…. he had a really shitty years in the minors. That can’t really be ignored.
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 10, 2009 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Teagarden didn't really
He had a solid (for a catcher) ISOP in the minors, and walked a lot. He struck out far too much, but if he would have had a decent BABIP, then his OPS’ would have been significantly prettier. As it was, over the whole year, his line was .228/.323/.445, for a .768 OPS despite having a .293 BABIP. For an off-year, that’s really not bad at all
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by OldProspects on Mar 10, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait, a .293 BABIP is low? Since when?
He still hit .228 and that’s not good.
by Lunkwill Fook on Mar 10, 2009 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
He looks like a guy who will hit .240-.250 with 15-20 HRs and good defense – perhaps better defense than that, but given his struggles this year both at the plate and behind it I really dont get why people are unhappy with where he is being ranked. It would be crazy to have him much higher…
Meanwhile, people keep saying stupid things like 30 HR power. Hopefully that will stop soon, as every ranking that comes out contradicts the fanboy position.
Just a question.
Think of the slash stats of a .240-.250 hitter with a large number of walks and 15-20 homers. Then compare that to a list of ML catchers in 2008. Then consider defense. How do you think Teagarden ranks against them?
He hit 15 HRs in 290 ABs
I think saying he has 15-20 HR power is a bit conservative. I agree with the average you project, though would add that he has a knack for walking a lot
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by OldProspects on Mar 10, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
So?
He had 43 career HRs before that. He got lucky. Shane Spencer hit a ton of HRs one August and September, too.
I dont think we should put that much stock in how many HRs he hit in a SSS. He hit .319 in the majors too – no one is suggesting that set a new true talent level.
With his contact skills he would be very hard pressed to hit more than 20 HRs, even in Texas.
Goldstein, about Teagarden:
I have a lot of questions about Teagarden’s bat and if he’s going to be more than a back up.
His power and contact have been quite overrated on this site. 20 HRs is really good for a catcher. I just dont at all see how anyone can project him for more power than that. He’s just not that good a hitter.
43 HRs in 756 ABs
I’m not saying he’s a star, but to deny that he has serious power potential (which he may or may not be able to successfully invoke on the major league level) is ridiculous.
And, as you quote Kevin Goldstein, I’ll quote John. “Teagarden should be a solid player if injuries don’t hold him back.” And “He’s more of a .240-.250 hitter I think, though with above average power and a reasonable walk rate. " ”http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/1/22/730027/a-few-more-book-excerpts" target="_blank">http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/1/22/730027/a-few-more-book-excerpts
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by OldProspects on Mar 10, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions
More Goldstein
His big-league showing last year has created unfair expectations for his bat; he has a long, loopy swing, is prone to big strikeout totals, and has just a .236 batting average at the upper levels of the Rangers’ system. With a checkered injury history that includes back problems, some wonder about his ability to withstand a full-season’s workload behind the plate.
Perfect World Projection: He’ll become a second-division starter.
Glass Half Empty: He’ll settle for being an outstanding backup.
I do completely deny he has the kind of power potential. With the rest of his hitting abilities, there just isnt much reason to think that all that power will translate to MLB. 15-20 seems very reasonable, assuming he stays healthy.
I dont know how why you would equate John saying “above average power” with more than 20 HRs. For a catcher, that is damn good power. That IS above average power… and perhaps a little more even.
We'll see
For the record, I think his ceiling is closer to 30 HRs if he played a full season, but at a practical level, I’d be surprised if he got more than 20, particulalry because of health reasons. I think he’ll add walks and a .240-.260 batting average, like John
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by OldProspects on Mar 10, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Perfect World Projection
That’s what drives me up the wall… KG’s saying that even if everything breaks right, he doesn’t see a 250/350/450 (800ish OPS) catcher with 20 HR and gold glove defense as anything more than a second division starter… that is crazy talk IMO.
Well
1) I think your numbers are slightly optimistic, both HRs and slash stats are the upper end of my expectations. If his AVG drops lower than .250 consistently its going to be awfully hard for him to put up the rest of those slash stats.
2) Staying healthy is an important skill, and Teagarden is a question mark in that regard. I think that is a major reason why he regards him as a second division starter. Should a “perfect world projection” consider less than perfect health? That’s a good question, but I think its pretty clear KG is strongly factoring that in here.
Fair Enough
It could just be semantics… The sub-.250 AVG and health issues are all things I’d say is completely reasonable for a Weighted Mean kind of rating. Most probable case is a starter on a bottom half team IMO.
It just seems harsh for something termed “Perfect World”, which I would equate to “where Joe Mauer actually develops by now the power that scouts saw in his swing”.
Ok, I’m starting to argue in circles myself :)
It wasn't a good year
But a .768 OPS isn’t disastrous, especially for a good fielding catcher, even considering his very low batting average.
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by OldProspects on Mar 10, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
My complaint
I’m actually not that upset about the ratings so much as the general negativity surrounding anything KG has to say about either of them. Seems like a case of focusing on what they can’t do than all the things they do really well…
Agreed about the comment on Teagarden
I think he is a sure-fire MLB catcher because he can definitely play, and play well, behind the plate and hes got enough bat to be something as a hitter but exactly how much of a hitter he will be is an open question.
Hes only had one GREAT year with the bat and that came in the Cal League in his second full year away from college (ie-he was behind pace.. though he was only behind pace due to injury not suckage in his first full pro year).
Hes got power and hes shown flashes but offense his hardly his strong-suit. Even in college he was more of a good hitter than a great one (granted, he played in a pitcher’s park)
Agree
He’s not a great hitter by any means. I do think he’ll have the bat to be a regular, though. Add that to his defense, and he’s a starter on most ML teams at his peak. But no, he’s no Matt Wieters.
A year from now
Both Perez and Neil Ramirez will be at least 4-star prospects. Kennil Gomez makes next year’s list. Ramirez will be talked about a lot more this year.
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Perez
I think he’ll stick at a 3. He wasn’t even close to being the best starter for that Spokane club, and I think he’ll still be behind the other guys, only getting ranked due to his age. He’s a good prospect, but it’s way too early to say he’s as good as a guy like Ramirez, who has more electric stuff. We’ll see of course…
Wouldn't surprise me
a bit. Beavan has a shot, too. Wieland might get on there as a 3-star.
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Ramirez is a top 10 prospect in my book
with the potential to be a #1 starter if his command of his breaking stuff comes around. He has two plus pitches, a 92-96FB with excellent mvmt and a plus CB that flashes plus-plus. He has excellent command of his FB. That is a more than solid foundation. So if he continues to make progress this year with his command for his breaking stuff and the development of his change he could be in AA by the end of the year right alongside Main.
Thats wrong,
He has pop, and the Rangers think he can eventually hit 12-15 homer a year.
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
by Kinslerhomer on Mar 10, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Here JParks take on Borbon,
he has his power lower link
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
by Kinslerhomer on Mar 10, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice article. Thank you. I was reading that series before but lost the link.
From the article:
The knock against Borbon’s offensive game is that he lacks power projection and doesn’t have the plate discipline to excel as a lead-off hitter at the higher levels. It’s true that his power projection is limited, but his game is not completely void of power. Borbon has the physical strength necessary to hit for moderate power at the major league level, but his swing mechanics often make him more of a slap hitter who isn’t able to produce the necessary bat speed to hit for much power. As is often the case, when Borbon is fooled on a pitch, he becomes an upper-body swinger, failing to generate much force with his lower half. When this happens, Borbon’s swing is rather lifeless, resulting in weak contact.
Ive had this discussion before on here… I think Borbon will be a decent MLB player/regular… but with his swing, it seems like no one really sees him hitting for power. He is kind of a slap hitter from what Ive seen and read. So, although he’s a nearly ready MLB product I just dont think his ceiling is much higher.
In fact, given KG’s problems with Andrus I was kind of surprised to even see Borbon make the “just missed.” I thought he might go Poveda, Font, etc…
and again...
I dont really see him being 12th on the Rangers list being an insult at all. They have a ton of high end prospects with big ceilings…
I think he's much more
of a gap guy, which is fine given his speed and position.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Kevin Goldstein talks about the list here:
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
Wow
Very interesting interview.
Here’s a question about Teagarden, w/regards to the discussion above:
Q3) I know you talk to a lot of scouts from all over baseball. Which of these 11 evoked the widest range of opinion?
Goldstein: Teagarden. It goes from everyday big league catcher with power, patience and defense to some who just say he can’t hit. There’s a lot of difference of opinion of Andrus, but not as much as Teagarden. Everybody sees that Andrus is going to be an elite defensive shortstop who can handle the bat OK. The question with him is a matter of degree. With Teagarden, it’s pretty severe. Some scouts are convinced he’s never going to be anything more than a .220 hitter.
Goldstein: Teagarden. It goes from everyday big league catcher with power, patience and defense to some who just say he can’t hit. There’s a lot of difference of opinion of Andrus, but not as much as Teagarden. Everybody sees that Andrus is going to be an elite defensive shortstop who can handle the bat OK. The question with him is a matter of degree. With Teagarden, it’s pretty severe. Some scouts are convinced he’s never going to be anything more than a .220 hitter.
by groundingout on Mar 10, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I did post that part
Im not ignoring it, by any means. It just wasnt news to me. We’ve discussed that part a ton. The part I highlighted is something that hasnt been discussed much. That was the surprising part of KG’s answer, to me at least.
seriously?
It is surprising to you that a guy that most people think will hit 240-260 may only hit 220? Seems like you expect quite a bit from predictions if 20 points off – in the extreme opinion – is surprising.
Seriously, yes
Its surprising that scouts are giving that answer to KG. That’s a decent bit worst that most people have him.
I guess you are really down on Teagarden.
With the lack of up the middle talent in the minors right now
I’m very surprised to see Andrus behind Main and Beltre. Even if KG doesn’t see a whole lot in the bat.
I think...
Taylor Teagarden is a better prospect than Max Ramirez.
Larry just needs to get laid
get him a blowup doll for god sakes
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on Mar 9, 2009 7:14 AM CDT
Jason Park's with some prospect interviews and great nuggets from spring training:
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
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