Homer Bailey or Phil Hughes?

by nemesis on Feb 9, 2009 4:20 PM EST

Both pitchers were former top prospects and hve struggled in recent outings in the majors. Both are still young (only 22) and still have ace potential.

Which one do you think is better?

Hughes has had great numbers in the minors, having an era of 3.00 or less every year before 2008. He is still someone who the Yankees still like and mainly are reluctant to trade.

Bailey was a top 10 prospetc before the 2008 season. He was picked in the first round of the 2004 draft out of higj school. Many feel that he has great potential to become an ace one day.

Poll

Who do you think is better, Homer Bailey or Phil Hughes?

Homer Bailey

73 votes

Phil Hughes

238 votes

311 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

What is this?

2007 again?

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 9, 2009 4:38 PM EST reply actions

+1

This was my exact thought when I saw the title of the post.

by rwperu34 on Feb 9, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions

Still think Bailey could be A.J. Burnett

But that involves a few years trying to figure it out, and still being a bit of a headscratcher when he does.

All in all, I’d pick Hughes. It would be nice to see him stay healthy, though.

by aap212 on Feb 9, 2009 4:46 PM EST reply actions

I've given up on Bailey

“Homer Bailey is a textbook example of how not to throw a baseball, right up there with Anthony Reyes, B.J. Ryan, and Mark Prior.”

You can read the rest here:

http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2008/12/11/690239/pitching-mechanics-homer-b

Pretty damning stuff there….

by slurve on Feb 9, 2009 6:11 PM EST up reply actions

Would be more damning

if the people who do this kind of analysis could actually show that it has any predictive value.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Feb 9, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions

Mechanics

Are you implying that bad mechanics aren’t a good predictor of future injury risk?

by rwperu34 on Feb 9, 2009 11:26 PM EST up reply actions

it has plenty of predictive value. They look at / learn a lot from history. Other pitchers with similar flaws have broken down in specific ways – Bailey is showing signs he is tracing those steps and his drop in velo supports that.

by slurve on Feb 10, 2009 7:53 AM EST up reply actions

The past isn't necessarily predictive

Understanding the past gives us insights about the future, and they might very well have achieved that. I have no experience in the matter so can’t say much in either direction

TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems

by OldProspects on Feb 10, 2009 2:34 PM EST up reply actions

Brickhaus is right.

There is no evidence whether the work these guys are doing has any predictive value or not, and there probably won’t be for some time. There are opinions.

by DrunkIrish on Feb 11, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

Hmm...

I completely disagree that there is no evidence – there’s quite a bit actually, it just isn’t advanced enough to accept as fact/probably true. Those opinions you speak of are in many cases well founded and held by some people who know their stuff.

by slurve on Feb 11, 2009 8:37 PM EST up reply actions

Personally

I don’t like Bailey’s mechanics either but Boddy’s site stuff is pretty average. I’m really not big on guys that go around touting who they think will get hurt. Show me a consistent track record of identifying pitchers that won’t get hurt and I’m more impressed. Boddy is solid at identifying timing problems, although I don’t think Bailey’s timing is all that bad. His (and others) thoughts on “froced scap loading” shows either a lack of actual time working with pitchers or a lack of actual time pitching themselves. Boddy does identifying what I think is a big problem for Bailey and that is his glove side action (also a big problem for Harden) and IMO can lead to shoulder issues.

There’s some value to all of these internet pitching guru guys (O’Leary, Nyman, Mills, etc), but you’ve got to take most of it with a grain of salt. If you are looking for solid research on pitching mechanics related topics, I would stick to the masters (Andrews, Flesig) at the American Sports Medicine Institute who have spent hours of laboratory time working with high level pitchers determining what factors have a role in creating stress in the joints. Analysis of grainy slow videos from behind don’t do much to get me excited.

Baseball Instructor - www.frozenropes.com

by HuskerBob on Feb 12, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs