Revere or Stanton?
by John Sickels on Feb 20, 2009 5:34 PM EST
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PrintWho would you rather have, Twins outfield prospect Ben Revere, or Marlins outfield prospect Mike Stanton?
Stanton offers outstanding power and is younger, but also has the horrific strikeout rate. Revere doesn't have anything approaching that kind of power, but isn't exactly punchless, has great speed, and is a more refined hitter.
I've been ranking Revere higher, but am I worrying too much about Stanton's strikeouts? Do you prefer the Kenny Lofton-like upside of Revere, perhaps with less chance of failure, or the enormous power potential of Stanton, perhaps with a higher risk of failure?
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While I think you do worry too much about Stanton's K's
I still Voted Ben Revere here…
I think Revere could be our next generation’s greatest leadoff hitter..
when you look at the % of GROUND BALLS he hit last year and still batted or flirted with batting .400? ..thats insane……
do very much like Stanton though, as I see him having a career Like Jack Cust….with Better abilities.(and thats almost worst case – scenerio)
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 20, 2009 5:45 PM EST reply actions
I agree, mostly
Guys can get to the majors and win MVP with ridiculously bad strike-out rates (Ryan Howard), Sometimes they turn into Rob Deer or Pete Incaviglia. Still a ton of them flame out and never make it out of the minors.
Sure good defenses may catch up and bite Revere in the a$$ because of his GB%, but at least he has a fighting chance to beat out grounders or force an error. Once you Strike-out your chances of getting to first base fall quite precipitously.
Stanton Stanton Stanton
People are going to be severely disappointed the way they’re rating Revere. Anyone remember Jeremy Reed? Heck, even Howie Kendrick? I know he’s fast, but there’s no way he’s a career .330 type hitter. His ceiling is something along the lines of .300/.400/.400 with good defense, and even that doesn’t seem particularly likely to me.
The poster above mentioned the number of hits he got on ground balls. I take that more to mean his BABIP was flukey high than anything. Once he reaches higher levels and is facing better infielder defenders, a LOT of those infield hits will disappear.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
Revere's BAPIP...
…in 2 professional seasons have been .363 and .416. Some guys (Michael Young) can manage to keep their career BAPIP’s pretty high, but not in the high .300s and low .400s. Revere will still be a good ballplayer, but his BB% (7.4) really wasn’t that good last year, and with his batting average inevitably dropping (I’ll still give him .300 hitter status), he’s likely a .300/.360/.420 guy. With his speed/defense, he becomes a good, though by no means great ballplayer.
I’ll take my chances on Stanton’s upside.
Career .330 type hitters
are generally HOF caliber hitters, anyone expecting that out of Revere is going to be severly disappointed. But if your expecting a leadoff hitter who hits for average with XBH capabilities and above average defense then your expectations are more in line with reality
I'm not sure where the "XBH capabilities" come from
Looks like a slap hitter with minus power to me. Not sure how anything in his minor league record, scouting report or physical profile would indicate anything different than that. He might end up with better power than Juan Pierre (by far the player who most resembles Revere), but that’s not saying much.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
will Stanton remain in the OF?
or is he on the path toward 1B/DH-ville? I’d probably choose Revere in that case…
I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.
Stanton
Is VERY athletic and should be fine in the OF.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
Stanton
I would pick stanton and wouldn’t even think twice. Stanton with his power can contribute, even if he doesn’t significantly improve his strikeout rate he can still have value. Stanton could hit .240 and strike out 150 times and still contribute in the majors in some role.
Revere has to hit .300 to have value in the majors IMO. He screams Juan Pierre/Luis Castillo type. He is going to have to hit for a high average to have any offensive value. His swing is big for the type of player he is/should be, given that I think he is going to really struggle to keep his average up against advanced pitching.
Hmm
So what you’re saying is that Stanton will strike out less against Major League pitching and not Low A ball pitchers? That happens all the time, right?
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 21, 2009 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
are you serious?
the guy isn’t playing in the majors tomorrow. players improve on things, is he going to get better, worse, or maintain that level who knows. But because he struck out alot in his first full season of professional baseball you think that is the best he will ever do and its all downhill from here, that he will never improve. If guys don’t improve from what they do in their first year of pro ball why the hell do teams waste time having AA and AAA, according to your thinking A ball is all thats necessary. So I guess by your logic you think Revere could step into MLB and hit .350 tomorrow huh?
by GoldenSpikes24 on Feb 22, 2009 3:04 AM EST up reply actions
While I don't have a strong opinion about the poll, I think you totally mischaracterize things
If those are the two options, I think everybody would take the “RF Jim Thome.” But it seems like more people believe that Revere will become Pierre, and Stanton will become – I dunno, Ben Broussard or something. I don’t think you can just look at each player’s ceiling and pick one, but you have to look at the likelihood of each reaching that ceiling.
by thejd44 on Feb 20, 2009 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
revere
“… if you actually SAW him play, you’d see that he is most definitely NOT a slap hitter. He can put a charge into a ball. He’s never going to be a home run threat, but he’s not Juan Pierre by any stretch.” — Kevin Goldstein, http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8526
Revere is no Juan Pierre
lets get that straight….
When Did Juan Pierre ever flirt with batting .400 in a whole season of play? Ever? One time? umm exactly
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Feb 21, 2009 2:13 AM EST up reply actions
He hit .352 in A ball
If you want to look at minor league stats like they mean everything, then 1 homer in 531 ABs is pathetic.
Stanton
Not even close for me. Stanton’s upside is Ryan Howard, Revere’s is Kenny Lofton, give me howard.
Hmm, really?
Because I’d probably take Kenny Lofton in his prime over Ryan Howard in his. It would all depend on how awesome Lofton was defensively (vs. how much was just reputation). I tend to think Lofton was one of the best defensive CF for a long time, while being an above average hitter. Yep, give me that over Howard.
by thejd44 on Feb 20, 2009 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
+1
I take Kenny’s peak over Howard’s as well.
Stanton
With great power comes great strikeouts…
…usually.
However, that IsoD alleviates any concerns I’d have about his ability to advance and continue producing. I’d take him over Revere at this point and not look back.
Stanton.
To me as a number of commentators feel , it is not even close. Did not Baseball America pick Stanton on their first team all star team for 2008 ?
went with Revere
I may be biased because I’ve seen him play but I think he is more of a sure thing at this point. This is not to say that I don’t think Stanton will succeed, but if I had to hedge my bets on who is more likely to have success at the Major League level I would choose Revere. Stanton could end up being Brian Dopirak for all we know.
+1
Or his evil twin, Ryan Harvey.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Feb 21, 2009 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
Revere'
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Oops Revere's arm
I’ve read before that Revere has a weak arm which I suppose could change as he’s very young but that is the reason he hasn’t been pushed faster after dominating his Rookie and Low A Ball that past 2 seasons.
Correct me if I’m wrong but Revere was at one point a middle infielder in high school. I honestly don’t remember where I heard that but I’m pretty sure it’s true. I wonder with the Twins depth in CF if they’d consider pushing him back to the infield where if capable defensively he becomes more valuable and gives the Twins greater variety in their top prospects. As much as this would be interesting I don’t know how often this happens in a players development. Can anyone think of any examples?
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
Revere's arm
is supposed to be really bad, but from what I’ve heard, the Twins don’t want to move him to 2B because Revere’s crazy fast. Crazy, crazy, crazy fast. He’s been held back because of the arm but also because he’s pretty raw defensively, doesn’t get great jumps or run great routes, but because of his speed he covers a ridiculous amount of ground and the Twins like OFs that can cover a bunch of ground.
4th OFer
With his skill set Revere doesn’t profile to much more than a 4th OFer IMO. I see people making the Lofton reference which I dont think is a good one. IMO he is Juan Pierre/Joey Gathright. Remember Pierre was actually good for a couple years, if Revere had a couple years like Pierre did and settled in to where Pierre is now I think thats the best you could ask for if your being realistic about your expectations. He’s far more likely to be a 4th OFer than he is anything else.
Everyone looks at Stantons strikeouts, but he also walks at a higher rate than Revere and he hit 39 HRs in A ball. I don’t see how you anyone can look at .293/.381/.611 39HRs and dismiss that just because he strikes out. He could easily be a major league regular for a few years or he could max out at a AAA slugger. When its all said and done there isn’t a whole lot of difference in value between AAA slugger and 4th OFer, so I’d take my chances on the big bat.
Chicks dig the long ball
Stanton 3:2 with 600+ votes
Jayhawk baseball - a tradition since Steve Jeltz
Revere has a JELL-O arm
what is it a 25 on the scout scale? He is going to hit, but for almost no power. Stanton’s upside is very high right now.
I would say Revere is more likely to reach is ceiling however
churchofbaseball.com
Revere could be Johnny Damon...
But I still went with Stanton. I just think Stanton’s skills are easier to project into a star player than Revere’s.
I can't choose...
to me it is like apples and oranges. I really like both players, but there is a good chance that neither one does anything significant in the majors. Both have one skill that might be able to carry them all the way, speed for Revere and power for Stanton. Both are players that are going to be hard to project (unless you are casejud, and in that case it’s not hard to project players since they are all going to be stars) until we see what they do against advanced competition. It’s absolutely possible that Stanton’s k-rate gets even worse when he starts to see fastballs that move and pitches with better breaks. And it’s also possible that Revere turns into a slappy who starts to get thrown out a lot more once he faces better defenses.
I don’t agree with the complaint about Revere’s walk rate or lack of HR power though. As a lead-off guy, I don’t care if he never hits a HR. As long as he gets on base at a healthy rate and can steal bases he is doing his job. If he can hit 20 doubles and 10 triples a year, his SLG will be just fine. And people, the kid hit damn near 400 on the year… when was he supposed to take walks? Should he take walks on pitches that he can poke through for singles? Some people get so hung up on the walk thing that they fail to realize that he still got on base at a 433 clip. He still had a good BB:K ratio. His Batting Average was just as high as Stanton’s OBP.
Stanton’s strikeout rate scares the Hell out of me. I worry about him adjusting more than I do Revere once they reach AA. But I would still love to have both of them in my farm system.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
This basically comes down to...
A player with a floor or Juan Pierre and a ceiling of Kenny Lofton, or a guy with a floor in the basement and a ceiling of Jim Thome at a corner OF spot.
I guess its a matter of preference and risk-averseness. Personally, I’d rather my team take a chance on Stanton than Revere. Of course, I’d love to have them both.
"floor of Juan Pierre"
Anybody that says a player that never played above A ball has a floor of Juan Pierre should be banned.
Pierre
Juan Pierre is more likely his “ceiling” than his “floor”
Went with Stanton
It was a close call for me, I tend to prefer players with the higher floor who are good bets to be MLB regulars even if they may not be stars. But in this case I had to go with the raw power of Stanton. These days finding players with true 40 HR potential is even harder than ever. Getting a good power hitter on the open market is expensive so getting a young guy for his cheap years is huge. The strikeouts are a concern but I’ll live with the risk for the chance at big hitter with good OF defense.
I love this place
Anyways, a few minor-tidbits about these 2 HISTORIC young players…
Ben Revere hit .379 in the Mid-West League! and a .497 SLG- he was 20 all season as well. Jaun Pierre never posted an ONBASE in the minors (or majors) as high as Ben Revere’s batting average this season.
Nyy 601 said that anybody who said Revere had the “floor” of Jaun Pierre should be banned. Well, then i should REALLY be banned then! :-) I believe Revere is more likely to be like Ichiro as a player- one with truly unique hand-eye, bat control, and the ability to get hits. I’d be shocked and disappointed if he wasn’t a LOT better major leaguer than Jaun Pierre- god bless him.
When I look at Stanton, or more specifically the players who are roughly comparable to age and performance – there are NOT many, or ANY really- NOBODY has been as good. Go ahead and check. The funny thing is that there are a number of guys who are great athletes like Hanley Ramirez in 2003 there who remind me of him as an athlete and also remind me of this—- when a really, really young player is ALSO a great athlete and is even ok in the minors the tend to often develop WAY BETTER than players normally would.
My hunch is that Stanton will be like this- a guy who works to be a .300 hitter occasionally. Hits between 30 and 50 homers a year, and will be one of the best rightfielders and players of the next generation. I think almost everybody is missing BIG by being conservative on him. I think he’s like Mike Schmidt as a hitter.
Doesn't matter what you think Revere will do
to say his “floor” will be a .300 hitter that steals 50+ bases every year is absurb.
And btw, Juan Pierre in 03-04 was basically Ichiro with a few less homers.
OK
I guess it depends on “floor” anyways. Personally, i don’t even believe in the floor/ceiling concept really. I think uyou can draw a low from watching a 2o-year old ballplayer in the Mid-West league myself. Things can happen but I believe that it is quite reasonable to think that Ben revere will be much better than Jaun Pierre as a ballplayer all the way across the board. Pierre may not be his “absolute floor”, which would be what. dying before he reaches the big leagues?, but I think it is his likely one.
And yeah, Jaun was pretty decent for a few years there- at the level of Ichiro at his worst after 15 pro seasons.
HIs absolute floor
baring death or injury, would be never reaching the majors. Although it isn’t likely it is still very possible for a 20 year old who never played higher than A ball to not reach the majors. No one would have thought Brian Dopirak would never reach the majors, or Brien Taylor.
His realistic floor would be something like the 2008 Chone Figgins.
And no, I don’t need everybody replying with the “omg omg Figgins never hit close to .379 in the minors”. I’m not comparing Revere to Figgins, just saying that his floor would be somewhere around what Figgins did last year.
OK
This is all conjecture, of course but, I will say – looking at Figgins as a player and being in a pretty reasonable mood it STILL doesn’t make sense nyy601
it is plainly obvious that Revere is a better talent than Figgins (Chone – god bless him- was a lifetime .273 hitter in the minors and is a .290 one in the majors)- 2008 was the WORST of his big league career- so why would Revere perform to the level of Figgins worst season?
Seems more likely to me that he will just hit BETTER than Chone Figgins since he is more talented. Unless you are one of those that is just OBSESSED with Revere’s low homer andf double totals and want to emphasise Figgins’ “robust” .318 Slugging from last year.
Well, it doesn’t really matter HOW you do it. Revere slugged .497 at the age of 20 in the MWL. That is better than a LOT of pretty good major league players. Do I think he’ll do that in the majors? Maybe not- but I think .420-.450 is possible in his prime and damn nice considering that isn’t his game. Revere won’t slug .318
Minor legue averages mean nothing
What Revere did last season was amazing, but to say that makes him an automatic .300 hitter in the majors is a joke.
I guess last year you must have thought Luis Durango was the next Nap Lajoie.
Hank Blalock hit .350 in the minors. Guess he could have never turned out to be a career .270 hitter. Casey Kotchman hit .370, no way he could turn out to be a .270 career hitter.
Batting average in A ball means nothing.
"Batting average in A ball means nothing"
Especially if it’s the result of a ridiculous GB rate.
"We were s--, pathetic," Guillen growled early in spring training. "We hit too many home runs."
by lenscrafters on Feb 22, 2009 4:22 AM EST up reply actions
LOL
No sense arguing if you don’t think Kotchman and Blalock can hit- and that thier A-ball numbers told you that. The numbers aren’t infallable but they are telling- and far from meaningless especially the younger a guy is. I shouldn’t have to tell you this though.
Blalock hit .300 with big power before overtraining and ruining his swing- then getting hurt. Kotchman has hit .296 – makes good contact- has some pop- is 25 and has battled a string of unforseen illnesses/injuries. He should start a string of .300 seasons this year though I would think.
Don’t know much about Luis Durango but he’s 22 and it certainly doesnt look like his career should be mentioned in the past tense
“Hank Blalock hit .350 in the minors. Guess he could have never turned out to be a career .270 hitter.” Would Revere also be a failure if he went to back to back AllStar games in his 2nd and 3rd seasons (age 22-23) before suffering several career-threatening injuries? If batting avg means nothing in A ball, why is so much stock being put in Stantons A ball power? I think its hard to pass up a solid prospect like Revere and put such a low ceiling on him when he has done nothing but excel. The risk is just too great on a player like Stanton to not prefer Revere if you had to choose between the 2.
Give him a chance.
This guy had done nothing more then light up the minors. Didnt a small guy just win the M.L.B M.V.P last season? You guys, and your prototypical power hitters. The steroid era is over. Its time for a new type of ballplayer, and I think Revere is a good example. Hits for average, good speed, good attitude, and from what I have heard a great team- mate. This kid has the making of a very exciting ballplayer. I think Kirby Puckett would be proud.
Green and gold in the freezing cold!!!
Buffalo NY.
Revere
Ok – I’m a Twins fan so I’m voting purely on non-statistical basis.
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