Freddie Freeman vs. Mike Stanton

by alexwithclass on Feb 13, 2009 6:01 PM EST Comment 29 comments

Just so you know, yeah, I'm probably a Braves homer. But I was looking over Kevin Goldstein's top 100, and I was struck by seeing Mike Stanton at #14, while the Braves' Freddie Freeman was at #80. The two are similar: they're both 19 year old Sally league first basemen (update: no, they're not -- Freeman's a 1B and Stanton's an OF), they're listed at 6'5", they were born two months apart in Fall 1989, and they both put up monster years last year. Stanton's numbers were pretty eye-boggling: 39 homers in just 125 games. It's not hard to see why he's one of the premier power prospects in baseball. But is Freddie that much worse?

Stanton's full line last year was .293/.381/.611, while Freeman's was .316/.378/.521. Stanton had the slightly better walk rate and obviously the significantly better power. But Stanton also had nearly twice as many strikeouts. Stanton had 153 K in 468 AB; Freeman had 84 in 491. And Freeman had the slightly better LD%, 18.9% to 15.9%.

To me, while I respect the awesomeness of an 18 year old who can hit 39 homers in 125 games, Stanton’s contact problems are really, really frightening. He struck out in a full third of his at-bats. (By comparison, Adam Dunn, as a 20-year old in A-ball, walked 100 times and struck out 101 times in 420 AB.) He hits some (okay, a lotta) light-tower home runs, but Freeman’s no slouch; Freeman outslugged Jason Heyward (Goldstein's #10), after all, and if you put up .500 slugging at 18, you can poke it a little.

I'm not saying that Freeman's a better prospect than Stanton, just that the difference isn't that great, and that I'm not sorry we have Freeman instead of Stanton. When you’re talking about 19 year olds who haven’t even faced high-A pitching, wouldn’t the much, much, much better contact rate at least mostly offset the difference in slugging?

Poll

Who would you rather have?

Freddie Freeman

70 votes

Mike Stanton

103 votes

173 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 29 comments

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Comments

Well...

It seems like there’s not as many people on the Freeman bandwagon yet as there should be. Freeman is a great prospect, no doubt about it, but a lot of people think that Stanton has a MUCH higher upside than Freeman.

Being a Braves fan I’d probably pick Freeman at this point, but you really couldn’t go wrong with either.

by bravesfan91 on Feb 13, 2009 6:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

For the 1,987,431st time...

Stanton is NOT a 1B. He played mostly CF this past year, but likely will settle in RF and be a plus defender out in right. Meanwhile, Freeman’s D needs some work at 1B.

I agree that KG ranked Freeman way too low though. I have him around #50.

by guru4u on Feb 13, 2009 6:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was going to say something similar, but he played more RF than CF last year.

Also for whatever it’s worth BA (Mike Berardino) rated Stanton as the best athlete in the Marlin system, a system that has that an athlete like Cam Maybin in it.

by bigboy1234 on Feb 13, 2009 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i found this VERY hard to believe

but my friend covers an MLB team for a major metropolitan newspaper (i’m not really at liberty to say his name) and he said that he spoke to a Marlins’ scout who told him that Stanton will get ABs in the big leagues this year. i told him he was full of crap, that the most Stanton would see of Dolphins Stadium was the dugout. But he again told me that Stanton would get ABs this year.

by psugator on Feb 14, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what an idiot

stanton is a pretty remarkable athlete and played zero games at first base in 2008.

by richieabernathy on Feb 13, 2009 6:24 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Idiot

Okay, guilty. Sorry.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Feb 14, 2009 2:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stanton

If the question is who I would rather have, that’s Stanton. If the question is whether or not there is a 66 spot difference between the two, I’d say it’s probably close (maybe not 66, but I’d say a 50 spot difference between the two is probably fair) that when you take in Stanton’s offensive upside being better (upside being the keyword) and Stanton being a more valuable defensive asset.

by toonsterwu on Feb 13, 2009 6:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

geez

How the F do you screw up that Stanton is a 1B..Freeman might not hit foe enogh power to be an elite 1B. That is why I would imagine KG had him down so far (although yes, it was too far).

by jsmall404 on Feb 13, 2009 7:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I believe

Keith Law said something about Stanton needing to move to either an OF corner or 1B at some point in the future. That offhand comment has made its way around the net to the point that Stanton is all of a sudden a 1B.

by guru4u on Feb 13, 2009 7:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It was easy, really… I’m dumb sometimes.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Feb 14, 2009 4:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well mister angry pants...

How the F do you screw up that Stanton is a 1B

Baseball America had him listed at 1B/OF as an amateur.

by aCone419 on Feb 16, 2009 2:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

im kinda troubled by the high so rate for stanton. he could end up a three fates corner outfielder/1b as a worst case scenario. i do know he hasnt played any 1b but my gut says the guy isnt done growing. i think he will fill out and be a dunn type player.

freeman, from what ive read, is slick with the glove. his low so is promissing and think his worst case scenario is Mientkiewicz type player with a better bat. i think he will progress to somewhere between jt snow and Teixeira. i predict a similar path to lars anderson.

by heapofoatmeal on Feb 13, 2009 7:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

"worst case is Mientkiewicz"

Do you know what worst case means?

by nyy601 on Feb 13, 2009 7:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

worst case barring injuries he will be an above average 1b with doubles power, good defense, and a couple of good years mixed in with a bunch of so so to bad years. i think he will be much better.

or do you happen to think highly of Mientkiewicz?

by heapofoatmeal on Feb 13, 2009 8:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

hahahaha

You are being serious? Worse case for any teenager sure isn’t a guy that was a regular starter for 5 years. Freeman is not even close to a lock to reach the majors. His worst case is a bust that never makes it out of the minors.

by nyy601 on Feb 13, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

heap

yeah, man. stop being dumb.

by richieabernathy on Feb 13, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he's no bill brasky like stanton

by IHateMitchMustain on Feb 15, 2009 11:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I will agree with you on the K rate

It is almost at 33 %, which will be very troubling if he does not reduce it as he goes up.

For Freeman, worst case scenario is more like he never improves anymore and stagnates, ending up in the independent leagues in a few years(look what happened to Brian Dopirak). Worst case scenario involving him at least playing in the MLB is something like Calvin Pickering.

by tdot mariner fan on Feb 14, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dopirak’s an interesting one. In 2004, as a 20-year old in A-ball, he hit 39 homers and put up a line of .307/.363/.593 in in 137 games (541 AB), along with 123 K. Pickering hit .311/.384/.554 as a 20-year old in A-ball, with 25 homers in 122 games (444 AB), along with 139 K.

Pickering and Dopirak were both 2 years older, with much higher K-rates than Freeman. So, while there’s always a chance that any prospect won’t make it, I think he’s got a much better shot of making it further than they did.

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Feb 14, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Notes

Freeman is considerably more athletic than either Dopirak or Pickering, both of whom were truly 1B/DH in both skillset and shape.

Keep in mind that Dopirak put up that line in the Midwest League, which is basically unheard of. He had a fast bat but injuries, a weakness to breaking stuff and the misfortune of being in a crappy player development system combined to bring him down.

by mrkupe on Feb 15, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

39 HR by a teenager

I wonder how many teenagers have had a season with 30+ hr in the minors in the last, say, twenty years . . . it can’t be all that many. Did they all turn out to be productive major leaguers? Stars? Or not?

by Average Joe's on Feb 13, 2009 9:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Since 1992 (that's as far back as BBRef goes for MiLB)

Ron Wright – 32 HRs at 19 in the SAL in 1995. Didn’t reach the majors.
Andruw Jones – 32 HRs at 19 across 3 levels in 1996. I think we know his resume.
Ian Stewart – 30 HRs at 19 in the SAL in 2004. Jury is out on what type of MLB player he’ll be.
Billy Butler – 30 HRs at 19 across 2 levels in 2005. Similar situation to Stewart.

by jibs on Feb 14, 2009 1:48 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

he’s probably mixing up stanton with morrison

by giantdonkey on Feb 13, 2009 10:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I mixed up Stanton’s current position in my mind. Obviously, he’s much more valuable in the outfield than at 1b. What do you think of them as offensive prospects, then?

http://www.chop-n-change.com

by alexwithclass on Feb 14, 2009 2:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs