Dan Uggla Prospect Retro
by John Sickels on Feb 11, 2009 7:21 PM EST
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Dan Uggla Prospect Retro
Dan Uggla was drafted by Arizona in the 11th round in 2001, from the University of Memphis. He performed well in college, hitting .379/.498/.790 with 18 homers, 42 walks, and 39 strikeouts in 214 at-bats in his draft season, but wasn't considered a hot prospect due to lack of size and tools. He hit .277/.341/.406 in 72 games for Yakima in the Northwest League after signing, OK but not excellent performance, and his plate discipline was rather mediocre with 20 walks against 52 strikeouts. I didn't rate short-season guys back then, but he would have been a Grade C, a successful college player who would likely need adjustment time at higher levels.
Uggla struggled in 2002, hitting .199/.291/.275 in 53 games in the Midwest League, and .226/.311/.337 in 54 games in the California League, obviously very substandard. At this point he wouldn't have been considered a prospect at all heading into 2003. He's fortunate he didn't get released.
'03 was better: he hit .290/.455/.504 with 23 homers and 24 steals for Lancaster in the Cal League. But it was Lancaster...everyone hits there. I had him rated as a Grade C in the 2004 book, noting that he had some pop in his bat and comparing him to Keith Ginter.
Uggla split 2004 between Lancaster (.336/.442/.600 in 37 games) and Double-A El Paso (.259/.302/.354 in 83 games). I saw him play in Double-A and he didn't look like much. . .not overly athletic, not working the count well, having big problems with breaking stuff. I didn't put him in the 2005 book as a result.. .I thought he was overmatched against Double-A pitching.
2005 saw him hit .297/.378/.502 for Double-A Tennessee, much better performance obviously than what he'd done in the Texas League.. He hit 21 homers, stole 15 bases, and showed adequate plate discipline. I gave him a Grade C in the 2006 book, noting that he had made adjustments and had good pop for a middle infielder. His defense wasn't highly-regarded, and given that he was 26 entering 2006 I saw no reason to think he would be especially interesting. I gave him another Grade C, noting that he had been selected by Florida in the Rule 5 draft and would "deserve a trial on a major league bench." I thought he could be a solid utility guy.
As you know, Uggla hit .282/.339/.480 his rookie year, and has continued to hammer the ball, averaging 30 homers over three seasons while posting a career .262/.341/.490 mark. Interestingly, this is some 40 OPS points better than his career minor league record of .276/.347/.443. Defensive metrics rate him as an average second baseman, which is just fine if you can hit like this.
So what explains it? Scouts have always loved Uggla's work ethic and saw him as a "gritty" type. His minor league performance was somewhat erratic, needing time to adjust to new levels, but once he did adjust he was productive. Nevertheless, in the majors he's exceeded what could have been expected based on his minor league record, and I don't have any real explanation for it. Lots of guys have great makeup; few exceed expectations like this.
His Sim Scores are weird, with a bunch of catchers showing up: Carlton Fisk, Mike Lieberthal, Johnny Romano, Ed Bailey, Jorge Posada, Jeff Kent, John Valentin, Al Rosen, Jody Davis, Tim Teufel being the Top 10. Throw the catchers out and that gives you infielders Kent, Valentin, Rosen, and Teufel. The only one of the infielders who was effective beyond age 32 was Kent, so it will be interesting to see how long Uggla can last at his current level of production.
He performed much worse in the second half last year (.286/.374/.605 pre-All Star, .226/.343/.396 post). Is that a bad omen for '09?
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I think
A combination of three simple letters explains his career and is likely still a candidate to fall off the cliff sooner than later.
uhm...
actually this sounds kinda suspicious to me, i mean this numbers kind of scream “juiced” have a look at this: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/players/Dan_Uggla/ 2005 beeing his 25 year old season, isnt that a bit late for such a power surge? does anyone have a page where i can find his weight over the seasons?
Unsubstantiated theories must be true now that A-Rod doped right?
Seriously, not every player that made an unprecedented jump in ability does so from HGH or steroids. Simple changes in the way a player’s swing or approach at the plate can make the difference between AA filler and an MLB regular sometimes. Baseball is not a physically based sport only, it requires plenty of skill to play that take a lot of time to develop, hence why excellent athletes often fail to be regular players. There are many players that break out late in their careers and have even made bigger leaps than Uggla, like Bucky Jacobsen or Scott Richmond this year. Some of these might be doping related, but not all.
by tdot mariner fan on Feb 12, 2009 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
Also 25 is not even in the prime of a players career
Most players are at their best physically and skill wise around 26-29 or 27-31 range.
by tdot mariner fan on Feb 12, 2009 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
Um, check out the numbers yourself
he was a good hitter in college and throughout the minors. He showed the ability to get on base and hit for both average and power in plenty of occasions before his age 25 season.
by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 12, 2009 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
must have forgotten to get new knees
after the AS game. Soria broke them with his sloooooooooooow curve!
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
Example #234
of how HGH can turn a player from a bench player/AAAA to an All-Star, but I still like Uggla as he is one of those true underdogs who is small, not that athletic, and not highly thought of, but manages to make everyone who doubted him look stupid whether or not he used performance enhancing drugs.
Injury
I followed Uggla pretty closely last year. Im almost certain his poor second half performance is due to an ankle injury. He simply was not the same after it. You can go back at his game log to see when it happens (around the end of june).
Uggla is great to watch, but...
smallish power hitters, who have no neck and big arms are suspicious to me.
fun to watch guy, and relatively harmless if he is an HGH’er since he isn’t going to break any records.
asside from my presumptions about his use, I do love the way he plays the game…..all except for possibly cheating.
Interesting
His #3 PECOTA comp is Kieth Ginter;)
ugh
I can only think of the firepower my Dbacks would have with both Uggla and Quintin in the lineup still……
Instead I’ll be treated to Eric Byrnes and Felipe Lopez
He juiced
Look at the dude, Forearms the size of McGuire’s in a 5’8" frame, your just lying to yourself if you choose not to see it and admit it.
Also side note to it
I think it’s fine that he is, Everyone did back in that time frame, I would have as well if I was him or the others, We need to accept the history and move on to a better Future.
It's called weight training moron.
My cousin is built very similar to him – he’s guilty of being… a gym rat. It is actually possible to gain muscle mass by working out and eating right. The short frame makes him look kinda freakish – but he’s as clean as they come.
It's really sad
Next thing, people like Frank Thomas are going to be derided just because they have a good work ethic leading to a “suspicious” frame.
by tdot mariner fan on Feb 12, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
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