DMB Projection Disk

by Boxkutter on Feb 1, 2009 11:02 AM EST Comment 8 comments

I know a lot of members here use the DMB Simulation program for their sim leagues so I thought this would be a decent place to ask this...

It looks like DMB is going to keep us waiting before they finally tell us if they are going to release a projection disk for the 2009 season. They did the same thing last year before deciding at the last moment to release it... and it was obviously hurried (some players missing that should have been listed and some weird sim projections). For some of us who have been faithful subscribers for years now and depend on the projection disk to run their sim league this is disappointing and enfuriating.

What, if any, other plans are DMB users making this year? Our league may use the ZIPS Projections for this season, but it is lacking the same detail that DMB uses (no R/L splits). Are there any other great programs out there? What about any other projections that may be turned into a DMB Projection? Our league is looking to maybe make a permanant change instead of holding our breath every spring to see if this will be the year that DMB finally lets us down.

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Well they planned to make the projection disk last year only kept pushing it back until it’s release date was after the beginning of the season. A few people were upset, several e-mailed them and they listened to their customers and published it earlier. That is partly the reason why there were players left off but that isn’t meant to apologize for them, the disk was subpar compared to the previous years I had seen.

- As far as options, you could wait 6-7 months till they put out the season disk. This would mean running your season during the off-season.

- You could use Szymborski’s disk from BaseballThinkFactory.com. His disk doesn’t have splits but he does plan to introduce them this year for the first time. His arguement is a player needs x amount of ABs to accurately guess what his splits may be so he plans on adding splits to only those players who meet his requirement (6000 ABs?). This is my league’s backup plan and the easiest.

- You could make your own players. DMB gives you the ability to create new players and edit them. You could use James, Marcels…whatever projections you wanted. This would be the most difficult and time consuming.

Other then those, you could switch products.

by jfish26101 on Feb 1, 2009 11:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

OOTP Baseball would be my first choice to replace DMB if my league were to make the kind of switch you are talking about. I’m more then willing to give Dan’s disk a change though and see how it plays.

by jfish26101 on Feb 1, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Szymborski

Right now that is the route we are most likely going with his as our #1 back-up as well. I just know those who run my league (including me) don’t want to have things up in the air each season like this. If we do have to use the ZIPS this year and enjoy it more than the old DMB (excluding 2008’s) then we will likely stick to it. Like I said, the only flaw I see right off the top of my head is the lack of the splits. I am not sure how that will effect simming. Will all players just hit both sides equally then? What about players like Luke Scott, Carlos Pena, etc who always have extreme splits? And since we use 25 active players, we have LOOGYs and ROOGYs. How will it affect them? We just started free agency in our league so that kind of stuff matters when assembling a team.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 1, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

DMB has natural splits imbeded into the engine. I don’t remember what they are exactly but it’s basically what the average splits are throughout history or at least for whatever sample size they used. Let’s say it’s .010 points of BA and a RHH has a .330 BA (Pujols), he will hit .320 against RHP but .340 against LHP. As far as pitchers go, that is my biggest gripe with the disk as well. I mean platoons with extreme split guys is a strategy I like to use from time to time but the pitching splits is my biggest beef with the disk. There is a thread on the DMB forums where I got into it with Dan and a few of the regular posters if you want to check it out. It shouldn’t be to hard to find, it’s 11 pages line and titled Projection Disk or something like that. ;)

by jfish26101 on Feb 1, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Splits

I should note that I’m doing splits this years for roughly 200 players, the players that either have enough of a sample size or enough of a platoon differential (obvously, the larger the split, the lower the PAs needed), to make doing them worthwhile.

Luke Scott is a good example why I think it’s irresponsible to do splits for the majority of players. In his limited career, Scott’s RC/27 against LHP is 73% that of his RC/27 against RHP. League average for left-handed hitters is 78%. Scott only has 257 plate appearances in the majors and if he created 2 more runs against lefthanded pitchers, suddenly, he has a league-average platoon split.

What if I simply regressed his platoon split towards

league-average? Based on the sample size and differential, our best guess expectation for Scott’s “true” platoon differential is less than a single a year worse than league-average.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com

by D.Szymborski on Feb 2, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

These 200 players...

Is there a list/link you have to see these players that you are doing their splits on?

by gore51 on Feb 2, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What about...

OBP and SLG splits? What kind of “average” splits do you use for those projections?

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Feb 3, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Players

Don’t really have a list, but in the 3000 PA range is when it starts becoming meaningful for pitchers, with smaller numbers for pitchers and under 1000 PA for relievers.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com

by D.Szymborski on Feb 3, 2009 12:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs