Chicago WhiteSox Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Dec 9, 2009 11:15 PM EST
53 comments
Chicago White Sox Top 20 Prospects for 2010.
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!
1) Dan Hudson, RHP, Grade B+: A personal favorite, since I rated him as a big sleeper pre-season and he really broke through.
2) Jared Mitchell, OF, Grade B: Grade A tools, refinement is a Grade C/C+ right now.
3) Tyler Flowers, C, Grade B: Power and patience are plusses, defense has improved a great deal according to all reports.
4) Brent Morel, 3B, Grade B-: I think he's underrated. Only questions about power at higher levels keep him from a Grade B. Now blocked behind Mark Teahen, a long-term signing I don't understand.
5) Jordan Danks, OF, Grade C+: Borderline Grade B-, as I like the tools and think the bat may still come around.
6) Dayan Viciedo, 3B, Grade C+: Cutting him some slack since he was young for Double-A and was pushed fast, but this is a good example of why we need performance data rather than just hype and team propaganda/scouting reports when evaluating players.
7) David Holmberg, LHP, Grade C+: Will the fastball get faster? If it does his stock could go up quickly.
8) C.J. Retherford, 2B, Grade C+: He can hit despite unimpressive tools. Not sure how he fits into long-term plans.
9) Christian Marrero, 1B-OF, Grade C+: Looks underrated to me. Could be a good platoon player.
10) Santos Rodriguez, LHP, Grade C+: Gotta love the strikeouts, but a long way from being ready to help. High ceiling though.
11) Miguel Gonzalez, C, Grade C+: Interesting catcher with good hitting in the Appy League and good glove rep, could rise quickly up the list in '10.
12) Jhonny Nunez, RHP, Grade C+: Power relief arm could help sometime soon.
13) Josh Phegley, C, Grade C+: Borderline Grade C; defensive questions still present and he had trouble transitioning from metal to wood, but can't ignore Indiana numbers completely yet.
14) John Ely, RHP, Grade C: I know scouts hate him but he just keeps getting people out. Passed Double-A Finesse Pitcher Test with flying colors.
15) John Shelby, OF, Grade C: Good speed, good glove, some power, on-base skills still sketchy despite increase in walk rate.
16) Tracye Thompson, OF, Grade C: Great tools, horrible hitting skills at this point. High risk of bust, but physical potential is impressive.
17) Clevelan Santeliz, RHP, Grade C: I know he throws hard and has the pretty ERA in Double-A, but his walk rate remains too high for me to trust him at this point.
18) Lucas Harrell, RHP, Grade C: Another guy with a decent arm but unattractive component ratios.
19) Brandon Hynick, RHP, Grade C: Nice pickup from the Rockies, possible inning-eater type though stuff is marginal.
20) Carlos Torres, RHP, Grade C: Old for a prospect at 27, but pitched well in Triple-A and could be a useful staff asset.
Others of Note (all grade C): Kyle Bellamy, RHP; Ryan Buch, RHP; Nick Ciolli, OF; Justin Collop, RHP; Tyson Corley, RHP; Eduardo Escobar, SS; Stefan Gartrell, OF; Jon Gilmore, 3B; Nevin Griffith, RHP; Gregory Infante, RHP; Nathan Jones, RHP; Jon Link, RHP; Charlie Leesman, LHP; Dan Remenowsky, RHP; Sergio Santos, RHP; Joe Serafin, LHP; Brady Shoemaker, OF; Taylor Thompson, RHP.
This is a very thin farm system, thanks in part to frequent trades and major league graduations like Gordon Beckham. I like the four guys at the top: Hudson and Mitchell are both personal favorites, though both still have enough questions to keep them from getting B+ ratings. Flowers seems to have come around defensively and has a good bat. Morel is another guy I like quite a bit and he has breakout potential in '10.
After that things thin out fast. Danks, Viciedo, and Holmberg all have good potential but even bigger questionmarks than the top guys. Marrero strikes me as an underrated player. Rodriguez and Gonzalez are intriguing but we need to see them at higher levels. After that we have a bunch of potential role players, possible bullpen arms, or guys with big ceilings but gigantic holes in their game (Trayce Thompson).
If Mitchell begins to fulfill his potential he'll be the clear number one next year.
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I wanted them to sign him
I don’t know how much he was asking for though, and I think he gained stock after he was drafted
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 9, 2009 11:38 PM EST up reply actions
+1
http://www.examiner.com/x-28775-MLB-Draft-Examiner
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by jesse.burkhart on Dec 9, 2009 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
also expecting a B+ for D.H
… and Gregory Infante’s 11 K opening day start had a lot of people thinking big time breakout but ultimately it seemed like that start was an aberration.
Agreed
I don’t think this system is really very good, but Hudson looks like a B+ guy to me.
by auclairkeithbc on Dec 10, 2009 7:28 AM EST up reply actions
Also surprised by the B.
Not that I’m necessarily arguing it at this point, but I’d love to hear the rationale behind it. Obviously there have to be some pretty huge question marks in John’s mind to pull down what was an “A” performance in ’09, statistically.
I think its a disservice to Mitchell's ceiling
He might be able to hit for more power than Span right now. He has significant raw power, and he might even be faster than Span, actually. Mitchell is a phenomenal athlete and his tools are far beyond what Spans were and are.
Of course, if you ask me to choose right now, Im obviously taking Span, but Mitchell has a ceiling that is considerably higher than what Span is. His chances of reaching it are something else entirely…
i lean sort of closer to Granderson for a comp
obviously, that’s a high end comp.
Juan Silverio
dont forget this guy. was rushed into the appy league and wasnt good in as a 17 yr old, but played quite well (.321/.366/.547) in the dsl as an 18 yr old. should be back in the states next year…very raw and far away…but has skills and still is high upside.
DSL stats are nigh useless in general, but they seem even more suspect for a guy who was actually DEMOTED to the DSL. That’s a pretty bad sign.
quote a few dominican players were denied visas due to questions about their true birth dates (essentially, use of false identification)
silverio hasn’t been linked to this but there were quite a few like him who played in the US in 2008 and didn’t in 2009 and that was the reason.
Viciedo
He really wasn’t all that bad considering his age, and in the second half he was pretty solid. Just based on the second half and his age, he’d deserve at least a B-. I’m not sure what kind of adjustment period we should give someone from outside the country, maybe none, but based on the ok performance and good 2nd half performance along with the hype which is probably not completely unfounded, i think he could be a B prospect pretty easily.
Kind of
and then he fell off the last month of the season.
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by BobbySouthSide on Dec 10, 2009 8:45 AM EST up reply actions
we'll chalk that up to fatigue
he is out of shape…plus I want to be optimistic about him
-Jeeves Life in the Cell
He looked bad the last couple of months of the season
His swing looked terrible. Most of the contact he made landed 2 feet past home plate and ended up being a 6-4-3
Granted this was a small sample I witnessed but man he looked bad…. on a positive note he did have very quick wrists as he was pounding the ball into the ground.
Flower's D
If it has improved to where he could be an average defensive catcher, I’d say he is a B+ despite the K issues. Walks, power and average D. A lot to like. But I can understand the B.
Phegley
Seeing him play at Indiana, couldnt ignore the bat, he has great hitting ability, but when he didnt make Team USA before his junior year, and skipped out on the Cape Cod League, I started to wonder how he would do with the adjustment to wood.
I think he will come around, and if he can stick at catcher should be a solid major leaguer.
Santos Rodriguez
I loved the reports on his build and stuff and was incredibly disappointed to see that they did not try him in the rotation this year, despite reports on the contrary.
Have they decided that he’s a reliever and that’s that or does he still have a chance of getting thrown into the rotation.
Apart from the lack of secondary stuff (which is obviously a big concern) it seems like he’s got the build and velocity to have a chance as a starter.
Agreed
A 6’6 195 lb lefty that already throws up to 97?
That’s pretty insane, especially since he flashes a plus slider as well.
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Wow not 1 B+
Im still surprised Hudsin didnt get a B+
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Comments under Morel...
I could not agree more. He’s underrated and there was no reason to give Teahen a three-year deal.
Teahen can play just about anywhere.
His extension had nothing to do with their doubts about Morel or Viciedo.
piss up a rope fuckstick ...................by hoodlight
The problem is that Teahen can't really play anywhere very well
He’s an absolutely putrid defensive 3B, and KW got him to “improve the defense.” Strange thing all around.
putrid is a little unfair.
He was bad his first year (2005) and improved greatly in 2006. Then he hardly played 3b at all for 2 years and moved back there part time last year. Williams seems to think if he plays there everyday he will be ok. It is an improvement over the start of last year, when we had Josh Fields at 3b.
piss up a rope fuckstick ...................by hoodlight
I can certainly see the reasons why the White Sox would see the possibility of a good defender there
I think he’ll be average there, personally. I blame his struggles on being constantly moved around. He has all the tools to be a good defender. I wouldnt put my money on him being good there, though.
Equally, there are some reasons to believe inhis bat, too.
Well, this isn't true.
When Teahen was awful (then just mediocre) at third in 2005-06, he didn’t play ANYWHERE else. All he did was play third. Poorly. He also played 100+ games there this year and, again, was bad.
Teahen has basically played nearly everyday (problem is, he’s not at all an everyday player on a good team) at third for 3 seasons and hasn’t shown he can handle the spot. Is he the worst defensive 3B in baseball? Probably not. But he’s certainly not anywhere near good.
Every YEAR he got moved, though.
He started off this year at 2B, for instance. That’s the kind of dicking around that really messes with a player.
Every year except 05-06
When he played 200+ games at third and was very bad at it. He’s 4 years older now. I don’t see how he’s going to all of a sudden be significantly better (also, he played third most of the time last year. Horribly then, too).
It’s one thing if a guy is playing in a different spot every day, but when he plays 100+ games at one position, I can’t really go with the “he was jerked around” argument.
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Hudson
I’m also surprised he didn’t get a B+. With Simon Castro, Zach Britton and Arrieta getting B+. Hudson’s key stats (K rate, K/BB, FIP) are sig. better than those guys. The guys that are younger than him (by only 9 and 13 months) pitched at lower levels than he did and the older guy (arrieta) had a worse performance in the 2 levels that he shared with Hudson. Now I know nothing about the stuff of the other three guys, so maybe john just feels they have much better stuff than Hudson? I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts John.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
Yeah
Almost all of the scouting reports that I’ve seen on Hudson is that he’s a middle to back of the rotation guy. From various BA comments, I think Jared Mitchell is going to get ranked ahead of Hudson and this is from KG’s write-up:
Perfect World Projection: Even with Hudson’s tremendous growth in 2009, some scouts don’t see room for much more, seeing him as a good third starter at best. Others think he’d be even better as a late-inning reliever.
What's this supposed to mean?
His fastball can touch the mid-nineties, I don’t know what more you can ask for in a starter, and his offspeed stuff is already passable if not good. How do the scouts know he can’t be better with his movement, location or repertoire when he hasn’t turned 23? I’d be hard-pressed to predict him as more as a good third starter myself but I think he definitely possesses the ability and is in the organization to do better, and that warrants a B+ in my opinion.
by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 10, 2009 11:27 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know
Maybe it’s stubbornness or maybe they just aren’t that impressed with his stuff (despite the solid velocity). I really have no idea as I haven’t seen him pitch. I’m sure John will elaborate on the grade in the book. As it stands, I don’t have a problem with the grade.
Hudson
His fastball averaged over 93 mph out of the pen last year, but it’s less as a SP. It’s more 90-93, and he doesn’t sustain his velocity deep into games. By the 5th inning it’s sometimes more like sitting 89-90.
So yes, it’s mostly about stuff. Arrieta and Castro definitely throw harder, and have potentially plus secondary offerings as well. Britton is probably pretty close in stuff. I don’t think he throws any harder, but he’s a lefty, and gets a very high rate of ground balls. Hudson had a good groundball rate at lower levels, but it dropped in AA and AAA.
I think you could debate Hudson vs. Britton. In the BA league lists, for example, Danks was ranked one spot ahead of Britton in the Carolina league, but Hudson was one spot ahead of Danks in the Southern League. That doesn’t really mean much other than they’re all close. In Hudson’s favor, he’s got command, he’s got two good secondary pitches right now, and he’s closer to reaching his ceiling.
this is demonstrably false.
seriously, it isn’t hard to look up pitch f/x data before posting such things.
Then demonstrate it
I’m not sure what you are even disagreeing with.
I would imagine
He is disagreeing with your assessment of Hudson’s pitch velocity.
Hudson's velocity
At draft time, May 2008:
Fastball – 87-89 MPH, reportedly was throwing a couple ticks harder. Looked uncomfortable in outings attended. Not overpowering in this effort but late life allows him to still miss bats. Must work ahead, however, because his pure velocity isn’t enough to beat hitters inside. Doesn’t hold velocity in mid-late innings. Looks like a future reliever.
though with this note:
Has mechanical flaws, if fixed, could greatly improve velocity. Definite upside. Good all around athlete. Needs to change speeds more. More of a thrower right now with some plus stuff, must become more of a pitcher.
Then, coming into this season, per BA handbook:
Hudson throws an 88-92mph fastball that explodes at the plate, riding in on righthanders and tailing away from lefthanders. He has an average slider and get strikeouts by throwing it down in the zone. He’s gaining confidence in his changeup.
Then, this season, a couple of weeks before his September callup, a report from a White Sox fan site scouting him at AAA:
Through the first three innings, Hudson’s fastball registered between 91-93 on the radar gun. Over the last four, he was around 89-90, with an occasional 91.
They don’t seem to have any game charts for Hudson at fangraphs, but if there’s minor league pitch/fx available somewhere that I don’t know about, I’d love to see it.
by acerimusdux on Dec 11, 2009 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
One more
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=6123
From Ben Badler in August, it looks like the next game after the report from Jim Margalus:
Hudson, 22, showed three pitches that scouts who have seen him this year have said all at least flash as major league average or better. Hudson’s fastball ranged from 90-93 mph, mostly coming in at 91-92. He didn’t have great command, however, as he had to leave after throwing 91 pitches (53 strikes) and too often started behind in the count.
Hudson’s changeup elicited more than a handful of swings and misses, showing good sink and fade at 81-83 mph. His 81-86 slider was a solid pitch at times (scouts who have seen him this year have said it’s flashed average tilt), though it flattened out occassionally when he dropped his arm slot. Hudson also flashed a couple of slow but big-breaking 70-71 curveballs as a show-me pitch.
by acerimusdux on Dec 11, 2009 11:35 PM EST up reply actions
Link Please
I would like to see the data too, thanks.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 11, 2009 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
Castro does NOT throw harder
I saw him nearly throw a no-hitter in the MWL playoffs last year, but his fasball was ranging 88-91 on the scouts’ guns. Either his velocity dipped or scouts were exaggerating velocity readings in 2008. What made him so effective is his command of the fastball and it’s late movement. His slider and changeup are very advanced for his age as well.
by BaseballEvolution on Dec 15, 2009 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
So John
changed Hudson to a B+. Seems consistent with his previous ratings.
Where I'm going, you can't follow. What I've got to do, you can't be any part of.
Scouting Report on Sergio Santos?
John,
Santos, a 25-yr old converted SS with terrible control and hittable stuff gets a C grade. What do you see and the scouts see in RHP Sergio Santos?
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