Rajai Davis in 2010
by Dewey Finn on Dec 9, 2009 9:51 PM EST
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PrintAfter being a 4th OF to start the year, Rajai Davis was finally given an opportunity to play everyday by the Oakland Athletics and produced as a valuable top of the order threat. In 125 games (390 AB), Davis put up a .305/.360/.423 line with 41 SBs in 53 attempts. Heading into 2010, Davis is penciled in as the starting CF and leadoff hitter for the Oakland A's. The Bill James Projection has him hitting .284 with 50 SBs.
What do you guys think?
As an everyday player (500 AB), I see him hitting anywhere from .280-.300 with 50-60 SBs and 90+ runs.
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Putting up that line, along with his defense, makes him what? A 3 WAR player?
by thejd44 on Dec 10, 2009 9:32 AM EST up reply actions
Not in that amount of PA it doesn't...
I’d figure his numbers to go down with more PA, probably to more like .310/.360 (OBP/SLG) since he wouldn’t have the platoon split that often.
Over a full season, if he put up that line and was a +5 center fielder, he’d be like a 1.5 WAR player. If he’s below average like CHONE projects, it’s more like 1 WAR…
The A’s really should move him this offseason. He’s not that good.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Platoon advantage*
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
I think he's better than +5 defensively, even in fewer PA than last year
I don’t think he’s as great as some A’s fans, but I love his defense. I’m sure Geren would bat him leadoff even if he puts up the .310/.360 line, which would make him a bad idea to have on the team. But if he’s batting 9th and putting up +10-15 defense (which is what I think he is over a full season), he’s worth the small price he’s being paid.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Well like I said, reports on his defense are mixed
CHONE doesn’t like him at all, and I think some of the defensive metrics other than UZR are not as high on him as UZR is.
He’s certainly worth his salary; however, I think that someone else might believe him to be worth much more than that. Although, there are a lot of good CF running around this offseason, so moving him might just not be practicable.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Yeah, I'm not opposed to moviing him. I just think he's worth keeping for now.
I love Sweeney’s RF defense, and think he’s okay in center, but I’m not sure he should be there full-time.
Best case scenario is Corey Brown shocks the hell out of me and can actually play in the Majors, but otherwise, Davis is fine now. And he won’t make that much in his first arby year.
Ideally, he has another solid season this year. His trade value will be way up then, and he’ll be right at that age where the A’s should move him anyway.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 13, 2009 1:15 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, and I've been meaning to say this: I love the Psych quote.
Not enough people watch that show, yet everybody watches that stupid fucking plagiarizing Mentalist bullshit show. I don’t think anything in the history of television has pissed me off more than some cheap imitation knock off show being treated like it’s something amazing while most people have no idea Psych exists.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2009 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Oh I Know
It exists, I just can’t watch it. I hate the lead character. And don’t worry, I don’t watch CBS so the Mentalist isn’t in my TiVo either …
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 11, 2009 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Never heard of Mentalist...
but I love me some Psych.
Shawn: Oh, you mean my pilot’s license? That’s out back in the Cessna. Or perhaps you’re referring to my license to kill. Revoked. Trouble at the Kazakhstan border. I could give you the details but then I’d have to kill you, which I can’t do because my license to kill has been revoked.
Actually, I do advocate knowing ABOUT the Mentalist because Psych has had 3 or 4 good jabs at that show this season
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 13, 2009 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
So
If you were to ever write a TV Show Smackdown, I’m guessing you’re going with Psych? :)
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 14, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions
What gets overlooked on Rajai is the adjustments he made during 2009.
He didn’t start getting regular time until he realized who he was and made the necessary adjustments, shortening his swing, putting the ball, going the other way on the ground and becoming a contact hitter. Every other game from July onward he was legging out on infield hit, which should be his exact approach.
He’s the first player in a while who I’ve noticed make the adjustment toward choking up on the bat, which led to him punching several balls to right. His bunting, while still a work in progress, has improved to respectability, and he has sneaky pop in his bat, to boot.
Long story short, he became a good player from the ASB on last year. Will he hit .305/.360 again in 2010? Maybe not. But to say him doing so in 2009 was largly due to luck isn’t totally true. It’s not like teams constantly booted grounders and threw balls away, or every ball off his bat was a grounder with eyes.
What I’m trying to say is that speed doesn’t slump, nor is it prone to luck as much as other facets of offense. As long as he keeps the same approach at the plate, I could see him flirting with .300 again in 2010. Also, keep in mind, he was seeing a lot of pitchers for the first time last year in his first real tour of the league, too. My prediction: .292/.350/.405.
http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10
So
Juan Pierre never slumped in his career? Interesting.
I wonder if anyone has really put that canard to the test.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 10, 2009 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, it's a completely ridiculous notion
Has utterly no relationship to reality. Players in “slumps” do not simply walk up to the plate and bunt their way on 10 times in a row to “end the slump.”
To the extent that anything “doesn’t slump,” it’s walk rate.
O'Hara: Detective Lassiter is literally on fire.
Spencer: What kind of fire are we talking about-- "Michael Jackson in the Pepsi commercial" fire, or "misusing the word literally" fire?
Well, I think it's a silly notion, but it may have some merit because the idea is that
even when things aren’t going well, one can still help the team with speed (because, barring injury, players don’t just get slower overnight). Of course I’d rather taking a slumping Pujols over a not-slumping Pierre, but I can see the logic in the argument. Sorta.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2009 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
That's Why
I was hoping there was some sort of study out there. It’s such a great example of truthiness.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Dec 11, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
270/320/380
will ding enough singles for a decent ave, but he won’t get many walks because pitchers will challenge him due to his lack of power.
solid 4th of’er with his speed, defense, and ability to put the bat on the ball
A .700 OPS in CF with amazing defense > 4th outfielder
You’re using the Keith Law BS made-up definition of 4th OF (because, in discussions I’ve had with him, it’s apparent he thinks just about everybody is a 4th OF, even though by definition that means he’s not in the top 90 OFs in baseball. He puts guys who are 40-50 as 4th OFs).
by thejd44 on Dec 10, 2009 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
Yup
Rajai would be an asset, but the kind you’d probably always be looking to improve upon. Most of his value lies in his glove, and with his shaky approach at the plate an unlucky year in terms of contact and BABIP could make him look really, really bad.
So he's basically an older version of ellsbury
Less bat than ellsbury, though put ellsbury in oakland and out of the boston media hype and his greatness is lessened
Rajai with better defense
by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 10, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry
I take that back a 1.9 WAR value in 2009 makes it even worse, but i do like his SB’s
by Asfan4ever723 on Dec 10, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
.320/.370/.440
If that comes true I will start playing the lottery, but since everyone else is picking regression I will go with super-babip inflated lucky monster season. Kinda like Bill Virdon in 1956 but more SBs. No, I wasn’t around in 1956.
10 triples in a big park like Oakland isn't totally out of the realm of possibility
But of course that line is crazy, and if he did that, he’d be an All-Star.
www.zekeishungry.com
by thejd44 on Dec 11, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions
meant to be crazy
but of course his ISO was .118 in 2009 and this only supposes a .120. Since he already had a super-high babip last year I guess I also am projecting miracle levels, but this really isn’t my “projection.” Everyone was going with regression, so I just threw this out there. It really isn’t that far out of line with last year.
He did .305/.360/.423 last year. He did .318/.389/.469 in 1/2 a season of AAA once. So the above line, while a gag, was meant to be within the outer realm of possibility, however unlikely over a non-platoon full season. Turning six of his outs into five more singles and one double last year would put him over my gag triple slash.
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