Chris Withrow vs Jenrry Mejia

Generally, the guys who tend to have injuries and blow out their arms are guys who tend to have unnecessary torque in their windups. Ignore Lincecum, because he is a freak of nature who throw off all conventional data, but in terms of pure physical concepts, I would almost expect larger guys to suffer from more arm related injuries. Their arms are traveling further (although it may seem a small distance, it truly does change the energy they exert), and therefore, are seemingly generating more force on their shoulders, elbows, et al. I know everyone speaks about a projectable frame, etc, but as a former pitcher (who wound up tearing his rotator cuff, fwiw haha) I can say that these guys are generating 90% of their power from their legs. If anything, a more compact guy would generate higher velocities. Muscle mass for pitchers in their upper torso is really somewhat irrelevant (other than their core), because it actually only adds unnecessary bulk to their frames.

I am very interested in reading what you found. It just seems from what you’re saying its going to be the answer to the question “Are shorter MLB pitchers be as effective as taller ones?” or something like that, more than “Are shorter pitching prospects as likely to reach the majors/be successful as taller ones?”

Ok, those are both phrased inelegantly, but Im not going to waste time on that, since Im sure you see my point. I don’t think the baseball intelligencia questions whether smaller stature pitchers can succeed in the majors – clearly, they can and represent some of the best pitchers (Pedro, Billy Wagner, countless others…).

Basically, if we phrase it in terms of odds of success, I would wager being bigger in stature increases one’s chances of making the majors as a pitching prospect.

First off, much of pitching has little to do with muscle mass, but rather has to do with training your muscles to withstand the wear and tear of performing an action hundreds of time that is, by all accounts, a movement that is unnatural for the arm to make. Once I eventually make my post about this thing, you’ll see that there is not much correlation between a “projectable frame” and success. For every C.C. Sabathia, there is a Jon Rauch. Talk about a projectable frame on that guy

i don’t see the difference in secondary stuff that you mentioned above. you said withrow throws a good curve but can’t locate it, mejia also throws a good curve but also can’t locate it. it’s been characterized as a hammer curve with late break, having plus potential, so i wouldn’t say he has no second pitch.

beyond that mejia is a year younger at the same level, with a better fastball so i’d go w/ mejia here. however, withrow is definitely intriguing and i have to admit this is closer than i initially thought.