Last year's rookies, top community prospects for future performance, #24
by Dalman on Dec 6, 2009 1:29 AM EST
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Some things didn't change this past round, such as Andrew Bailey coming in second, this time tied with Jordan Zimmerman, who belatedly made his first appearance in the poll. Still, after both of them being beaten by 6 points by Daniel Bard, with 23% of the vote it is now clear that while Zimmerman would have drawn substantial support begining 4-5 rounds ago, the community ranks him no higher than 24th overall considering his injury status, and we'll see about whether it is that high. Here is where we are so far.
1. Matt Wieters, C Baltimore
2. Tommy Hanson, P Atlanta
3. Andrew McCutchen, of Pittsburgh
4. Brett Anderson P Oakland
5 Gordon Beckham, 3b CHW
6. Rick Porcello, P Detroit.
7.Elvis Andrus, SS Texas
8. Colby Rasmus, of St. Louis
9. David Price, P Tampa Bay
10. Travis Snider, of Toronto
11. Dexter Fowler, of Colorado
12. Chris Tillman, p Baltimore
13t. Matt Latos, p San Diego
13t Derek Holland, p Texas
15. Cameron Maybin, of Florida
16t Chris Coghlan, of Florida
16t Trevor Cahill, P Oakland
18 Matt Laporta of/1b Cleveland
19 Kyle Blanks, of San Diego
20 Nolan Reimold, of Baltimore
21 Drew Stubbs, of Cincinatti
22. Ricky Romero, P Toronto
23 Daniel Bard, P Boston
Very interesting results last round, particularly among the starting pitchers, as Zimmerman didn't draw enough to win, but did draw enough support away, along with Bergesen and Rzepcynski, from Happ, Cecil, and Neimann to pull them all under 5%, after several rounds for each of them above that level. I think there is every reason to think that the community likes Cecil and Happ considerably better than any of the starting ptichers that have yet to be added such as Hernandez or Swarzak, and certainly likes them better than any of the starting pitchers who have been permanently dropped to this point. So, I am going to go back just a bit on what I said, keeping Neimann on but dropping Happ and Cecil for this round and at least considering bringing them back for round 25.
For this round, Cliff Pennington and Garret Jones return for another shot. Taylor Teagarden, Ryan Perry and Sean West get a first chance at the poll. I'll do whatever works to get the strongest possible list of candidates for next round. Casey McGehee with 0% last round is permanently dropped.
temporarily dropped from the poll (percentage and round in parens) Randy Wells 0% (18), J.A. Happ 3% (23), Brett Cecil 3% (23)
permanently dropped from the poll (last round and best round in parens) Gio Gonzalez 1% (20), Clayton Richard 2% (21), Luis Valbuena 1% (22), Gerardo Parra 3% (22), Tommy Hunter 2% (22), Brett Gardner 1% (22), Casey McGehee 0% (23)
With just one round left after this one, I am going to give Randy Wells a final shot next round and consider giving a last shot to Cecil and/or Happ. This may leave another spot or possibly two available, which have come down to Jake Fox, Jordan Schafer, Brian Duensing, and perhaps a reliever from the group of Medlen, Sipp or Mijares. Who do you think is the must add of this group--if anyone?
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Zimmerman
Highest ceiling of all the arms remaining. Is there some risk? Sure. That said, if we’re talking long term, I’ll take my chances on Jordan bouncing back in due course, and he showed this year that his stuff was plenty good enough to succeed in the bigs. I think he’ll be a solid number 2 starter who might have a couple really excellent years.
Neimann by a hair over Bergesen
Both have an edge due to health over Zimmerman, and both have already showed consistent success in the AL East. But Neimann has better stuff, even if he has a history of health problems.
I don’t think 19 starts of 4.53 xFIP pitching with 4.7 K/9 qualifies as “consistent success.” I appreciate what Bergesen is — a strike throwing, ground ball inducing back end starter — but that doesn’t get him anywhere near Zimmerman, Neimann, Cabrera, or Cecil for me.
?
Niemann had an xFIP of 4.74 last year.
Chone projects Bergesen to be better than Niemann next year, and he’s three years younger.
K/9 isn’t everything.
Where does CHONE project that?
Looks like:
Bergesen: 141 IP, 157 H, 43 BB, 80 K, 18 HR, 4.72 ERA
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/BAL2010p.htm
Niemann: 157 IP, 157 H, 58 BB, 110 K, 20 HR, 4.36 ERA
http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/TBA2010p.htm
Advantage: Niemann
K/9 isnt everything - but it does mean a hell of a lot. Especially when its as pathetically low as Bergesen’s. As Bill James noted, virtually no pitchers who have a K/9 that low in their rookie season go on to a successful career. Its practically unheard of.
Really, I just don’t buy that he can keep doing the other things he does well at a rate that will allow him to succeed while he’s missing so few bats. I would take Niemann easily. I would also take Rzepczynski, Zimmerman… and well, pretty much everyone else who is on the list or has been on the list. I would bet the house Bergesen craps out. He has a poor statistical profile and its not like he has the kind of stuff that makes you believe despite that (ie. Fausto Carmona is his rookie year).
Those ERAs are not park neutral
Bergesen is projected to be 17 runs over replacement in 141 innings, and Niemann is projected to be 16 runs above replacement in 157 innings.
Voted Zimmerman
But really, I think that Marc “Alphabet Soup” Rzepcynski is being very underrated. I would put him 15-20 on this list personally.
bBergy
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Is it just me...
or did no one else notice Marc Rzepczynski terrorizing the minor leagues last year, and then following it up with a 3.88 xFIP in the majors? Neimann’s never performed that way, and Bergeson is a joke by comparison.
yep
he would be 14th for me after Holland..
There is pretty much a canyon between Holland and Rzepczynski for me
Theyre both LH starting pitchers but that’s where the similarity stops. Holland throws significantly harder than Rzep. Holland has better stuff. Holland has better control. Holland had better minor league numbers (and that includes the time before Holland’s velocity jumped).
I would actually rather leave four or five empty spaces than have them next to eachother on a list like this. Its funny, too, b/c if you look at the surface Rzep had a much better debut in many ways – but the difference is largely superficial.
Needless to say, I feel Holland was unconscionably low on this list.
i would have him after holland
because there is a huge dropoff after holland… doesnt mean they are alike or anything..
plus when did holland get a velocity increase?
Im not sold
His avg. fastball velocity is 88. His stuff moves a lot but he’s the sort of guy Id be very worried about the league seeing him the second time around. His control isnt great and he walked over 4 per 9 in the majors (not great in the minors either).
The overall profile doesnt really impress me and I have serious doubts about his ceiling. Im really gonna need to see him do well for a prolonged time before Im convinced.
I think once you accept the "extreme groundballer" profile as one that will play...
you won’t be as surprised when guys like Webb, Lowe, Aaron Cook, Ricky Romero, John Lannan, Paul Maholm, (etc) succeed. Then, you’ll look at the fact that Zep’s 2009 MLB K/9 of 8.8 was the lowest at any professional stop in his career, and you’ll wonder what you were missing in the first place.
I do accept it
Getting groundballs is a great thing in a young pitcher.
But I also except that extreme groundball pitching prospects often don’t pan out, and that they don’t have extremely high ceilings. For ceiling I will almost always take the strikeout pitcher. I think there is a good reason for this, and that there are (at least anecdotally) many extreme groundball pitching prospects who succeed or excel in the minors but whose stuff or control is harmed enough by the transition to the majors that they can’t nearly match their previous level of success. I think there is an excellent chance Rzep is one of those guys, though only time will tell.
Rzep throws a big breaking ball – and he can’t always throw it for strikes. That’s a major concern in a case like this, IMHO. Guys havent seen him much. When they do they might very well learn to lay off the slider and then bam – its “can you hit my 88mph fastball?” time. Its happened to many a pitcher who started off well and/or had good minor league numbers.
How is Niemann winning this poll?
I’d have
Bergeson ahead of him
along with Andrew Bailey and probably Jordan Zimmerman
maybe even Garrett Jones or Mark Rypzenmski….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 7, 2009 2:55 AM EST reply actions
Zimmermann had a sizeable lead not too long ago.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
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