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Last year's rookies, top community prospects for future performance #23

This round goes to Ricky Romero with 18% of the vote.  Daniel Bard comes in second.  Andrew Bailey, who had come in second the previous two rounds, drops to third. 

 

1. Matt Wieters, C Baltimore

2. Tommy Hanson, P Atlanta

3. Andrew McCutchen, of Pittsburgh

4. Brett Anderson P Oakland

5 Gordon Beckham, 3b CHW

6. Rick Porcello, P Detroit.

7.Elvis Andrus, SS Texas

8. Colby Rasmus, of St. Louis

9. David Price, P Tampa Bay

10. Travis Snider, of Toronto 

11.  Dexter Fowler, of Colorado

12. Chris Tillman, p Baltimore

13t. Matt Latos, p San Diego

13t  Derek Holland, p Texas

15. Cameron Maybin, of Florida


16t Chris Coghlan, of Florida

16t Trevor Cahill, P Oakland

 
18 Matt Laporta of/1b Cleveland

19 Kyle Blanks, of San Diego 

20 Nolan Reimold, of Baltimore 

21 Drew Stubbs, of Cincinatti

22. Ricky Romero, P Toronto

Star-divide

Luis Valbuena, Gerardo Parra, Tommy Hunter and Brett Gardner all draw a smattering of support, but none enough to avoid being permanently dropped from the last few rounds of this poll.  Brad Bergesen, Casey McGehee, Everth Cabrera and Mark Rzepcynski all return for another chance, and Jordan Zimmerman get's his first chance on the poll.  Everyone in the top eight (out of twelve) stays on for next round, everyone with at least 5% of the vote stays on, anyone meeting neither of those criteria are permanently dropped.

temporarily dropped from the poll (percentage and round in parens)  Randy Wells 0% (18), Cliiff Pennington 1% (19), Garret Jones 3% (21)

permanently dropped from the poll (percentage and round in parens) Gio Gonzalez, 1% (20), Clayton Richard 2% (21), Luis Valbuena 1% (22), Gerardo Parra 3% (22), Tommy Hunter 2% (22), Brett Gardner 1% (22)

With just two rounds left after this one I am listing players who are under consideration to be added for the first time in the  last two rounds.  I decided to get as many players as possible who had previously been considered and needed to be considered again into this round, that should still leave me the ability to add at least 2 new players in each of the last two rounds.

Among hitters I will probably go with either Taylor Teagarden or Jake Fox unless I decide to only add pitchers the rest of the way.

Among starting pitchers there seems to be no sentiment for David Hernandez,  so Duensing, Swarzak ,Mazarro and West are still possibilities for one spot.

Among relievers, I am considering  Ryan Perry, Jose Mijares, Tony Sipp, Kris Medlen, Luke Gregerson and Sean West.  All of these guys had very nice years last year, almost all with k rates of better than 1 per inning with minor league track records that say this is no fluke.  I had been working under the assumption that until one of Bard or Bailey won, none of these guys would have a chance, but we are going to test that next round by adding two of these guys, regardless of what happens to Bard/Bailey.

Finally, as discussed in the previous thread, Jordan Zimmerman probably should have been added as a tester at least a few rounds ago, though my understanding is that he is expected to miss all of 2010.  We'll see how the voting goes this round before assessing whether that made a differerence.

Poll
Who is the best prospect for future major league performance among the following, who used up their rookie eligibility in 2009?
Andrew Bailey, P Oakland,
37 votes
Mat Gamel, 3b Milwaukee
14 votes
J.A. Happ, P Philadelphia
8 votes
Daniel Bard, P Boston
48 votes
Brett Cecil, P Toronto
6 votes
Jeff Neimann, P Tampa Bay
12 votes
Julio Borbon, of Texas
17 votes
Jordan Zimmerman, P Washington
40 votes
Everth Cabrera, ss San Diego
9 votes
Marc Rzepcynski, P Toronto
9 votes
Brad Bergesen, P Baltimore
13 votes
Casey McGehee, of Milwaukee
2 votes
other (please specify below)
0 votes

215 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 35 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Zimmermann x748374

Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters

by wickedwitch on Dec 5, 2009 11:27 AM EST reply actions  

Yup, can’t believe we all forgot about him. I’d honestly put him somewhere in the Tillman/Latos/Holland mix — I guess right below them with the concerns over the TJ surgery, but recovery rate is very high.

by PhillyFriar on Dec 5, 2009 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

i'd also add that

casey mcgehee is with the brewers, so cincinnati shouldn’t have been written

by toonsterwu on Dec 5, 2009 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Add Perry and West.

All the starters, Mijares, and Teagarden are after these guys. You will have 3-4 guys eliminated in addition to the winner likely so Perry, West, Hernandez, and Teagarden I guess. Maybe Duensing if a 4th guy is knocked off.

by sjkqw on Dec 5, 2009 1:06 PM EST reply actions  

Jordan Schafer

I don’t plan on voting for him yet, but I’d rather have him than Teagarden, Fox, McGehee, et al.

by Jeff Reese on Dec 5, 2009 1:34 PM EST reply actions  

What's the reasoning...

..behind your thinking that Perry wouldn’t have a chance until Bailey or Bard was selected?

Considering their development path, I don’t see a reason that Perry’s long-term prospects are significantly worse than Bard’s or Bailey’s.

by James F on Dec 5, 2009 2:16 PM EST reply actions  

reconsidering but...

given how early Bailey started getting 5% plus I thought he would have won a round by now. And, at least on the surface he had a pretty spectacular year, or so the ROY voters thought.

by Dalman on Dec 5, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions  

He did have a spectacular year

But he’s still a reliever, as are Perry and Bard.

I think that all three could have futures as above-average closers. But I don’t see that as an extraordinarily valuable thing. If Zimmerman, Neimann or Bergesen turn out to be reliable #3 starters, they are worth much more.

by James F on Dec 5, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions  

People love Saves

even though its a made up, foolish stat that doesnt mean a whole lot.

by alskor on Dec 5, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions  

zimmerman

maybe one or two spots higher at most. but tillman, holland and latos mix. nope.

by svigen on Dec 5, 2009 2:17 PM EST reply actions  

If you think the injury will effect him, then no.

But if you think he can be the player he was before injury — and I do — then there’s no reason he doesn’t belong in that mix. He’s 23, has good stuff, and posted fantastic peripherals in his major league career thus far. You’re telling me you wouldn’t take a fully healthy Zimmerman over Trevor Cahill?

by PhillyFriar on Dec 5, 2009 4:40 PM EST up reply actions  

IMO, I have Cahill over Zimmerman, hurt or not. I do like Zimm, but I dont think you can rate him high since he is hurt. His stuff was filthy when he was healthy though. I plan on drafting him this year late since his stock will be a little lower.

by Candiria65 on Dec 6, 2009 8:43 AM EST up reply actions  

These community posts for future perfomances makes me realize how great of a rookie class this really was in 2009. I knew it was strong, but I never realized it was THIS strong……..

by QBsIllest1 on Dec 5, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions  

Went with Bard - How can you people vote for Zimmerman - someone who had TJ & is out for all of 2010??

but seriously considered Gamel. Bard had more votes and I dont think Zimmerman belongs on this list. Im not voting for a guy who just had TJ and is going to miss the entire 2010 season when there are perfectly good options still available. That’s madness. Sure, he likely comes back fine, but why the hell would you choose him when he has that added risk element? No way.

by alskor on Dec 5, 2009 3:32 PM EST reply actions  

I feel in terms of impact players the three I would vote for left are Gamel, Niemann and then Bard and Bailey. I voted Gamel last time, but he’s really lagging here and so I switched to Bard, b/c he gives the best chance of keeping Zimmerman off.

by alskor on Dec 5, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions  

He’s having TJ surgery, not labrum surgery. Recovery rate is like 99.99% at this point (I’m obviously exaggerating, but you get my point).

Sure he’s missing 2010, but “future performance” implies a much longer time frame than that. And over a much longer time frame, I’m taking a guy who sits 92-95 with his fastball, shows good promise with his secondary pitches, and has already posted a 9.1 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and a 3.50 xFIP in his brief major league career over a couple of relievers, a mid-rotation starter at best, and a first baseman who strikes out too much.

by PhillyFriar on Dec 5, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, the recovery rate is vastly improved for TJ these days, but its definitely not that high

Further, “recovery” doesnt cover the change in stuff or velocity that can happen.

He’s missing a year at least, we don’t know what we’re getting after and he now has an injury history.

I also apparently like Neimann far more than you. As for the relievers, Id vote the other two first, but they’re both excellent relievers. Not just another relief arm.

by alskor on Dec 5, 2009 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Fair enough. I’m usually pretty risk averse, but I think the upside on Zimmerman is worth it here.

And I like both of the relievers a lot, but even a halfway decent #3 starter is providing more WAR than all but the top 2 to 3 closers in baseball, so I’ll continue to vote for Zimmerman, Neimann, and Cecil before I get to Bard and Bailey. The relievers would have easily made it on already in previous years, but as has been discussed, this is a deep rookie class.

by PhillyFriar on Dec 5, 2009 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

I voted Neimann

I think that he is a solid mid-rotation starter for a good team His k/bb was quite nice the second half even if the era wasn’t spectacular Sure, the projections for Zimmerman before the beginning of last year were better than that, but even given that many make it back from tj surgery, I don’t think that I would want to bank on him beating out Neimann’s career from where they stand right now.

by Dalman on Dec 5, 2009 3:52 PM EST reply actions  

I guess a lot of people think Bard is going to be one of the three best closers in baseball, because that’s the only justification for voting a reliever over a number of good looking starters and everyday players still on the board.

by PhillyFriar on Dec 5, 2009 6:08 PM EST reply actions  

you are nuts!

if he was going to be a top 3 closer for sure, you’d have to take him in the top 5 overall. a lot of these players already chosen will flop out. most won’t make an all star game.

by auclairkeithbc on Dec 5, 2009 6:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, I think you're overstating this

This “relievers aren’t worth much” thing is a holdover from earlier days of sabermetrics. Yes, they may not accumulate the most WARP, but in terms of scarcity of resources they are quite hard to find – that is, relief aces, not “closers” who get “saves”, but rather effective relief aces who regularly pitch in high lev situations.

I do agree they should get a discount… but then, I feel we’re probably at the point of this list where they’ve been sufficiently discounted. Like I said, definitely still take Niemann, but Im higher on him than many…

by alskor on Dec 5, 2009 6:47 PM EST up reply actions  

The “scarcity of resources” argument is a good counterpoint, I do grant you that. I’m just a big believer that you can build a pretty effective bullpen with a couple of young guys and some veteran buy-low candidates. In that vein, I’d rather have a good bet for a #3 starter (Neimann), or a good looking young shortstop (Cabrera), before a guy who’s going to pitch 70 innings a year. Maybe just a personal preference, I dunno.

by PhillyFriar on Dec 5, 2009 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Bard!

It’s amazing how he makes 100 MPH look effortless.

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by Preston Barclay on Dec 5, 2009 6:57 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Yup

In some ways he’s like a better, healthy version of what we thought Zumaya was.

by alskor on Dec 5, 2009 7:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed on Zimmermann...

I voted Julio Borbon. I’m not saying he’s as good as McCutchen, but he’s going to be a solid average regular for 10 years.

by murda2626 on Dec 5, 2009 8:33 PM EST reply actions  

Bard

Is going to win here.

But he belongs probably 20-30 spots lower. This is a deep class full of potential starting pitchers and everyday players so it’s a shame to see a reliever go on the list this early.

by dkdc on Dec 6, 2009 1:00 AM EST reply actions  

I think a reliever can be more valuable than that

Not necessarily one who is used as if his manager owned him on a fantasy team, in 3-0 in the ninth, nowhere to be seen in a tie game with runners on in the 8th, but someone in the Bard role, which was similar to the Feliz role of last year, yes. I know here in Texas we got to the point that we knew going into a game whether it was going to be a Feliz night or not, because that has such a huge income on how the game played out.

by Dalman on Dec 6, 2009 11:26 PM EST reply actions  

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