Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Dec 4, 2009 5:59 PM EST
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PrintTop 20 Baltimore Orioles Prospects for 2010
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize. Complete reports on these and over 1,000 other players will be in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order, shipping on February 2nd!
1) Brian Matusz, LHP, Grade A: I don't see anything to complain about here. Could be something like a cross between Barry Zito and Mark Mulder when they were young.
2) Jake Arrieta, RHP, Grade B+: I like this guy a little more than most people, but I love the upside and I think the command will come around.
3) Zach Britton, LHP, Grade B: Love the grounders, solid strikeout rate, I'm pro-Britton.
4) Josh Bell, 3B, Grade B: I like Bell too, but I see him more as a solid regular than a future star.
5) Brandon Erbe, RHP, Grade B: Borderline B-. Have always loved the upside, but durability and consistency remain concerns.
6) Brandon Snyder, 1B, Grade B-: I think he has a good bat, but not a GREAT one.
7) Matt Hobgood, RHP, Grade B-: Liked him a lot in high school, need more pro data before going higher.
8) Mychal Givens, SS, Grade B-: Great tools, grade is highly speculative at this point until we get some performance data. Can always try pitching if he doesn't hit.
9) Brandon Waring, 3B-1B, Grade C+: I like the power, but am unsure about the glove. Like Bell and Snyder, he seems more solid-ish than star-ish. Batting average and OBP may be issues.
10) Kam Mickolio, RHP, Grade C+: I am the Great Mickolio. I need control for my baseball. I have no changeup. Do you need fastball for your bullpen?
11) Luis Lebron, RHP, Grade C+: Another hard-throwing bullpen option if he throws strikes.
12) Steve Johnson, RHP, Grade C+: Might get overlooked because of his boring name. Possible fourth starter type if the command is there.
13) Brandon Cooney, RHP, Grade C+: Another hard-throwing bullpen option if he throws strikes.
14) Ryan Berry, RHP, Grade C+: A steal in the ninth round, IF his arm doesn't fall off due to the Rice injury curse.
15) Ashur Tolliver, LHP, Grade C+: Interesting southpaw arm with very good stuff, probably fits in the pen better than as a starter.
16) Caleb Joseph, C, Grade C: Might be a C+, could be convinced to raise this grade. Good power potential, defense is questionable.
17) Troy Patton, LHP, Grade C: Arm problems have cut his stock drastically, but I wouldn't count him out just yet. Command still a strength.
18) Michael Ohlman, C, Grade C: Power potential draws lots of praise, but no pro data yet and defense is questioned.
19) Xavier Avery, OF, Grade C: High-ceiling tools outfielder with questionable bat, young enough to improve greatly.
20) Cameron Coffey, LHP, Grade C: Tommy John survivor, could rank much higher once we see how he recovers from surgery. Clocked as high as 95 MPH before injury.
OTHERS (All Grade C): Matt Angle, OF; David Baker, RHP; Jesse Beal, RHP; Pedro Beato, RHP; Bobby Bundy, RHP; Jacob Cowan, RHP; Oliver Drake, RHP; Pat Egan, RHP; Pedro Florimon, SS; Eddie Gamboa, RHP; Randy Henry, RHP; Tyler Henson, 3B; L.J. Hoes, 2B; Rhyne Hughes, 1B; Jarret Martin, LHP; Cole McCurry, LHP; Bill Rowell, OF; Tyler Townsend, 1B; Justin Turner, 2B; Aaron Wirsch, LHP; Rick Zagone, LHP.
I think the Orioles system is often underrated. There is a lot to like at the top, with Matusz entering the '10 rotation and Arrieta not far behind him. I probably like Arrieta and Britton a bit more than most analysts. Erbe has tremendous potential as well. There is the nucleus of a really good pitching staff here, with several potential major league starters as well as the raw material of a fine bullpen, with a mixture of excellent arms (Mickolio, Lebron, Cooney) as well as guys with command (Egan, Gamboa) who could be fine staff fillers.
Things are thinner on the position side. The best of the hitters is Bell, but I see him more as a very solid guy than a future superstar. Snyder and Waring have potential, but again they strike me more as guys who can be pretty good rather than lineup anchors. Athletes like Givens and Avery have great ceilings but who knows if they can learn how to actually play. Joseph and Ohlman provide some catching depth behind Wieters, but neither one are certain to stick there.
All in all, this system has some major strength in young pitching but they could stand to boost the hitting.
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steve johnson is very underrated..
this will change by next year..
Nitpicking but
Matusz should probably be an A. I need to check and see who the previous A’s and A-’s are though.
Caleb Joseph appears to be slightly underrated here as well.
2009 = 3
Last year, the only straight A’s were Wieters, Price, and Feliz. I think the average is 3-5 straight A’s.
This year, we have Strasburg, Heyward, and Posey so far. If Matusz is an A-, that might be it.
I can’t see Stanton qualifying since he still carries a lot of risk (A usually means perceived high floor as well as ceiling, which isn’t to say that every straight A pans out anyhow), so I think Montero is the only other candidate…
erm
Toss in Feliz (for some reason I sanity-checked with a no MLB experience list) and Santana (saw a Cleveland Top 20 in my search, but it was 2009) as possible straight A’s remaining.
Did I miss anyone else?
a couple possible
Stanton, Montero, maybe Smoak, and most like Alvarez more than me so maybe him, but I see high A-.
I can see the arguement for Santana, but I have him as the 2nd A-.
So my A’s would be Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Brian Matusz, Jesus Montero, Buster Posey, Mike Stanton, and Netalfi Feliz . Justin Smoak, Carlos Santana, and Pedro Alvarez are close
Obviously 7 is a lot so John will have to leave out 2 probably. Matusz is the first
If A means that high floor is considered as being heavily weighted, then Matusz should be an A hands down. Feliz has a tremendous ceiling, but his floor is a reliever. Matusz’s ceiling is that of a #1 SP and his floor would seem to be a #3/4 SP based off of last year’s performance, right?
There is a case to be made that Matusz's lack of a top notch fastball would prevent one from calling his ceiling a #1.
I love Matusz – apparently far more than other members of the community, but I probably wouldnt list his ceiling as “Ace.”
His fastball is good enough to be a true #1. Halladay has tremendous movememnt, but not much velocity. Maddux has once again, trememodus movement, but not wowing velocity. Matusz has such good quality secondary pitches that it compensates for the lack of an overpowering fastball…
Youve named two of the strangest outliers in the game. The general consensus is that its never a good idea to use those guys as comps. Pretty much every expert questions his fastball despite your optimism. Its not a huge issue, but its definitely an issue.
Just because a guy doesnt have true #1/Ace upside doesnt mean they arent a top notch prospect. Matusz has the ceiling of a good #2 – maybe like a… John Lackey? He also has a very high chance of hitting his ceiling. That’s really good and shouldnt be taken as an insult. Not having a top notch fastball is a problem, though, and it does affect his ceiling.
Matusz's fastball
It averaged 91.5 mph this year, which is pretty good for a lefty. He’s not a soft-tosser, it’s that his other pitches are just that much better, which gets his fastball described as “lagging” behind them.
Eyeballing it, there were only about a dozen or so lefty SP who topped Matusz’s fastball in terms of velocity, and its not straight.
When he was on this year, he got it up to 93-94. video
I don’t think there is anyone in the minors (other than Strasburg) more likely to be a frontline starter than Matusz.
I would agree with your conclusion and I love Matusz
but I would still disagree with attempts to label Matusz’s fastball as anything great.
+1
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 9, 2009 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
My two thoughts exactly.
If you just look at Joseph’s final stats, you can’t tell what a good season he had.
And Matusz is the 2nd best pitching prospect in baseball and top 5 overall.
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
What convinces you that he should be an A-? What I like in Matusz is that there really aren’t too many if any SP prospects like him right now. He has a good fastball that can touch 94. He has 3 offspeed pitches that grade anywhere from above average to plus-plus. He has atleast plus command, excellent pitchability and he is a lefty. IMO he is like a crafty lefty with excellent stuff. This also IMO is why he is hard to come up with a good comp for. You can say Hamels, but Matusz has 2 more quality pitches than Hamels. You can say Cliff Lee, but Lee doesn’t seem to throw quite as hard as Matusz does, and if I remember correctly, Lee has 3 pitches(Could be wrong) compared to Matusz having 4.
And to further explain why I think he deserves a A, he dominated A+, AA and then skipped AAA and went to the majors in the toughest division, AL East and made it out with a very good(for a rookie) 4.63 ERA and 7.7K/9 IP, even though some considered him rushed. The #2 SP and #1 LHSP prospect in America IMO deserves a grade A, but of course thats just my opinion…..
I'm not convinced he's an A-
I’m just not convinced he’s a A either.
The way I see it is that Matusz’s floor is out of baseball in five years, and all it will take is his losing his command. His fastball is good but without explosive movement; his offspeed pitches are his bread and butter. Right now he doesn’t have a pitch like Feliz’s fastball or Hamels’ changeup that promises to be a dominant pitch even if their other skills erode. Most analysts have seen Matusz as an excellent #2 starter, but not a #1.
Now, my personal opinion is that the above concerns are mostly unfounded. He dominated AA in his first pro season, did well in the AL East and improved the more he pitched in the majors. With his arsenal and command, he could be amazing. But I’m not a professional analyst, so I’m also open to the notion that they know things I don’t.
Matusz has a changeup that it quite similar to that of Cole Hamels. Give Matusz a few ML years under his belt and the change IMO will be in the same level of quality. Some say it flashes plus-plus. He also has a plus curveball as an out pitch. IMO his 4 pitch arsenal of nothing but quality pitches IS what keeps him form having a flooor of “out of baseball in 5 years” in case his command or a pitch abandons him. Furthermore, couldn’t you say the same hing about anyone? WHat if Neftali Feliz lost his fastball? He could have as good of a chance og being out of baseball in 5 years as Matusz, if not a wors chance since the FB is Feliz’s special pitch…..
Beat me to it QBs
Arguing a loss of command is pretty abritrary. Of course losing one’s command makes you a bad pitcher. If Grienke loses his command, he’s out of baseball also. If Pujols loses his contact ability and patience, he’s a shell of the hitter he actually is. Matusz’s advanced command is one of the major factors in why his ceiling is so high. There’s no indication that he will lose it and no reason to suspect it. Removing it is building a straw man.
cliff lee has 4 pitches (fastball curve cutter change)
and lee throws as hard as matusz.. matusz in his 44 innings threw an average fastball of 91.5 while lee threw 91.1…
matusz and lee are very similar… hamels is a 2 pitch pitcher so you cant compare him to matusz..
I see a lot of Paul Maholm...
but, of course, that’s not going to make Matusz fans happy.
yeah
maholm with more Ks and a fly ball pitcher instead of a groundballer like maholm
Florimon
I think Pedro should be a C+. While he is very raw, he’s a potential plus defender at SS, shows some patience and some pop at the plate.
Also Cooney shouldn’t be as high. He’s more of a low-90s guy than a high-90s guy.
is that an Inverted W
in the picture of Matusz? is this a worry that will show up in the future
I dont think his elbow is actually above his shoulder much, if at all
He doesnt appear to scap load too much in other video and pictures Ive seen. I think its just a weird camera angle.
A+ effort here John
IMHO this has been you’re best ranking of a teams system yet….
I agree with almost every single grade here….
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Dec 4, 2009 7:55 PM EST reply actions
Britton
I love the aggressive ranking. Who do you think is a good comp for him?
nevermind about these 2
i was thinking of the wrong guy..
Andy Pettitte?
Well, as a ceiling at least.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Dec 4, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t exactly understand the Pettite comp other than they are both left handed and both can touch mid 90’s(When Pettite first came up). Pettite had an amazing cutter and a good curveball.
Britton has a great sinker, and will have a good slider by the time he comes up.
I don’t really feel like going and checking Pettite’s GB ratio, but I didn’t ever really consider him a big sinker baller.
Thinking about good sinkerballers with a good slider, Scot Erickson immedietely comes to mind.
They both had similar BB and K ratios at similar levels of the minors.
Librarians are hiding something
by dfa on Dec 5, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
Mulder and Zito sound reasonable
not the extremely lucky 2.75 ERA version of Zito, of course, but the 3.8-4.5 FIP version of him. early Mulder had significantly better control than what Britton is showing in the minors – maybe his 2004 and 2005 seasons are good comps (4.51 and 4.30 FIP respectively). if he keeps it up, I think the average projection is solid #3-4 starter, depending on what happens to his control.
Love that top 5
This system is still top half for me. A year ago, before graduating Wieters, Reimold, Tillman, Hernandez, Berken, and Bergman, I thought they were in the discussion even for top 5, and were under rated. BA ended up putting them at #9.
Don’t like them quite as much now, probably just miss my top 10, but still love that top 5, and depth is still decent after that.
I mean Bergesen
Bergman? Where’d that come from.
I like Mickolios comment
Good list overall.
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 4, 2009 11:21 PM EST via mobile reply actions
That kinda worries me about him
as a Giants fan I saw Merkin Valdez try to throw a fastball by everyone on almost every pitch. It did not work.
Well it is a pretty deep sinker
For what it’s worth. And he should begin to use the slider more with more time.
I like this list a lot, and I also like the system
Four of your top 20 from last season graduated this year (Wieters, Tillman, Reimold, David Hernandez) and two more from the top 20. Yet the system has only one fewer A/B prospects than last season, and one more C+. Six of this top 20 are from the 2009 draft, which is very encouraging, and having the third overall pick in 2010 should give the Orioles a great opportunity to add to the top part of this list. And four of the top ten are poised to graduate to the majors in 2010, without any likely competitors for playing time, with Britton and Erbe on track to be in AAA in 2011.
The biggest weakness I see is in the positional talent in the middle minors. The Orioles don’t look to have any C+ prospects at AA or High A on offense outside of Waring and possibly Joseph. The lack of middle infield prospects is also a concern given their organizational weakness.
IMO one of the most encouraging things about this list is that most of the grade “C” prospects are breakout candidates who were just drafted in 08 or 09. Wirsch, Cowan, Henry, Coffey, Martin and Berry are all pitchers from the 09 draft who should boost their stock once they get some playing time. Both Beal and Bundy I also expect to jump up some lists in 2010 as they get into their 2nd full year, hopefully Bundy comes to camp in shape and with his normal velo, and Beal gains some more arm strength as he fills out.
I also wanted to mention that Britton and Erbe aren’t on the same trajectory to the ML. There is a good chance Erbe goes to AAA this year after his strong AA showing. Britton will start in AA., so Erbe could possibly get a shot in 2010, if not then, 2011 he could make it out of ST.
Brett Jacobson
He was traded from the Tigers in the Aubrey Huff deal. He was a B- last year and pitched OK in the FSL as a 22-year-old—1.23 WHIP, 7.2 K/9. Isn’t that good enough for a C grade?
I don’t recall him being mentioned when Sickels asked about potential sleepers in the system. Personally I had forgotten all about him. I agree he does belong in the “others” section, but not the top 20. He is probably a player Sickels missed, many O’s fans(myself included) tend to forget about him since he was a new, but not overwhelming acquisition…….
jacobson
Yeah I forgot about him. I’ll put him on the straggler list.
by John Sickels on Dec 5, 2009 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Brandon Snyder
I know alot of people aren’t really high on Snyder (and I wouldn’t say I am expecting him to be a top 1B in the league). However his AA numbers appear to be really impressive. In 201 ABs, he had a 1018 OPS and 10 HRs. Very similar to Mark Teixeira’s AA number (same age, 171 ABs 1006 OPS, 10 HRs). Better OPS than Prince Fielder (two years younger 839, but 23 HRs). Similar OPS to Ryan Howard (two years older, 1033 OPS, but 37 HRs). I guess the biggest concern with Snyder is his lack of power. So I guess my question is:
Does it matter how many HRs you hit or is a 1000+ OPS valuable enough? Is a 900 OPS player with 30 HRs really more valuable than an 1000 OPS player with only 10 HRs? I’m just curious, because I feel like an 1000 OPS is quite impressive. Yet almost everyone I see looking at Snyder (Orioles fans included) seem to overlook it or brush it off.
Generally
A 1000 OPS with 10 HRs is MORE valuable than 1000 OPS with 30 HRs because you would need an insanely high OBP to pull that off.
Of course, there’s zero chance that Snyder is a 1000 or even 900 OPS hitter in the majors. And you can’t point to his 1000 OPS in AA and ignore his 671 in AAA.
Over the last three years in the minors, Snyder has been a 290/360/460 hitter. If he maintains that in the majors (which most players don’t), he’s a slightly below average hitter at 1B. His glove has varied reviews, but his upside is probably average there.
Snyder might be a passable starter for a few years, but I don’t see much upside.
just to be clear, I do not expect Snyder to be able to have a 1000 or 900 OPS in the majors. I was thinking he may be able to be James Loney or hopefully slightly better (.800ish OPS with high OBP). Which wouldn’t make him a star, but should make him a valuable starter on a contending team (assuming we get above average production from C, RF, and CF).
I also didn’t mean to ignore his AAA production. I’d definitely like to see how he readjusts to the league next season. I heard he had trouble with the bigger ballpark in Norfolk. Then started pressing on the road to try to salvage his stats. He did bounce back nicely in the AFL, so hopefully he’ll calm down in AAA next season.
Disagree
It’s certainly true that Snyder might never become more than a .820ish hitter in the majors, but I think he has more upside than he’s being given credit for. He’s been hitting in very pitcher friendly leagues, he hasn’t repeated any level, and he hasn’t been old for any level. His OPS+ over the last three years has gone from 111 at low A, to 131 at high A, to 181 at AA, and 162 in the Arizona fall league this year (I couldn’t find his stats for Hawaii or the AFL last year). That’s a very encouraging progression. Of course, there’s no question that he fell on his face in AAA, but it’s too soon to tell if that represents a real problem or if it was just a bad stretch.
He’ll never be a big HR hitter, but he’ll probably add some power as he gets a little older. I also think he’ll draw a few more walks as he gets older. So I think he has the potential to hit something like .315/.400/.500 at his peak. I don’t think it’s accurate to say that he has zero chance of putting up a .900 OPS in the majors.
He’s not likely to reach his peak, but the good thing about Snyder is that he has a fairly high floor IMO. I think there’s a good chance that, like you said, he’s a consistent .820ish at the major league level, and if he can provide average defense at 1b he’ll be a very useful player for the first few years of his career. Cheap, averagish players have a lot of value (as an aside, I think there’s too much emphasis on upside and star potential in prospect evaluations.)
Cheap, averagish players have a lot of value
I agree with this, but I think Snyder’s floor is much lower.
Right now, the projection systems have him at a ~.665 OPS for 2010. Projection systems aren’t perfect, but they do a very good job of for synthesizing stats over several years while adjusting for age, league, level, and context.
You may have very good scouting reasons to believe that Snyder will outperform that projection, but that’s a pretty big gap to close. Most of the 820 OPS guys in the majors (Jackson, Kotchman, Overbay, Butler, Garko, Casey, Millar) were 900+ OPS guys in the minors.
Most of the 820 OPS guys in the majors (Jackson, Kotchman, Overbay, Butler, Garko, Casey, Millar) were 900+ OPS guys in the minors.
Sure, but Snyder was well over .900 in AA and the AFL. And of course most (all?) of those guys were hitting in much, much better environments. Again, it’s hard to say where his true talent level is, but I think it’s at least in the same ballpark as guys like Jackson and Overbay.
Does anyone know
What happened to Chorye Spoone? He seems to have fallen completely off this list
Just thinking out loud here..
I like Brandon Warings power, but he struck out a lot in the AFL. This year at Bowie will be huge for him…he needs to have a big season in AA.
Brandon Snyder has a nice bat…drives the ball well, does not elevate his hits so I doubt he will hit many ML HRs….I think he and Josh Bell can be solid at the ML level but need to start the year at AAA and prove they belong.
The system is deep with pitching prospects, but I hope they keep adding depth there, many a slip between the minors and the majors, just check Garrett Olson.
by A Fan Of The Game on Dec 6, 2009 2:59 PM EST reply actions
Drafting
What do people think the Os will do with their #3 pick in the draft? What options are looking the best at this point.
Depending on who is taken #1 and #2
and what happens before the draft, the options would be Jameson Taillon, AJ Cole, Anthony Ranaudo, Deck McGuire, Karsten Whitson (all RHP), 3b Nick Castellanos, SS Christian Colon, 3b Zach Cox, SS Manny Machado and SS/3b Rick Hague right now.
Could be Covey in there too. Personally I really hope we go for Taillon. He IMO is one of those elite prep pitchers, ie Kershaw, Beckett, Porcello……
I agree. There are about 45 figgerent guys I would be pretty happy to have for their own specific reasons, but I want Taillon the most. I am also axious to see who we got with in round 2 and3 and what other possible overslotters we go for this year.
As far as overslotters we nabbed in the 09 draft, I am extremely excited to see how they all do next year, but I am most intrigued by Coffey, followed closely by Henry…..
Ohlman to
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Dec 8, 2009 7:25 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I doubt it. He may be traded away then 7 years later after bouncing from organization to organization he may emerge as someone’s Jayson Werth. Its too bad though because he seemed to be special for a little while. And, if he had remained an elite prospect, he would have fit perfectly into the O’s 3rd base slot. Regardless though, Josh Bell will fill that void and give us what we were hoping for with Rowell….
Rowell off the List completely
Wow.
I read they moved him to RF. chalk him up as a 1st Roud Bust already???
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Dec 16, 2009 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
looks good
Seems pretty fair to me.
by Dawn Callahan Kettlewell on Dec 7, 2009 3:31 AM EST reply actions
If Tillman were eligible
What would his grade be? I’d say A-, but closer to B+ than A.
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Dec 29, 2009 5:10 PM EST reply actions
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